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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • #782
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Calina wrote: »
    Can we stop discussing French elections here?

    Mod: Use the report function please.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #783
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,334 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So I'm just hearing that the speaker of the house John Bercow has said that the government can't just bring back the deal again next week if it's the same or more or less the same. That sounds like a bad day for Theresa May. The EU have said there will be no further clarification or anything to do with the withdrawal agreement so that means the deal as it stand is dead then surely ?

    Yeah, it looks like the deal is dead, but obviously I don't have a grasp of the intricacies of the HoC rules and bylaws. Reports are that No. 10 is not happy about Bercow's ruling, but they can't have not known it was coming. It seems like a fairly cut-and-dry rule.

    I don't see any way forward beyond a lengthy extension + second referendum. I'm not sure the EU would even accept the UK extending for another GE, as another GE is not guaranteed to give a clear outcome.


  • #784
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    WhiteMan32 wrote: »
    Last Wednesday in the HoC, one of the amendments tabled by former Tory MP Sarah Wollaston (now part of newly formed Independent Group) was for a delay to allow for a referendum that asks people do they want Theresa May’s deal or do they want to remain in the EU. After most Labour MPs abstained on the motion, it was defeated by 249 votes.

    Following this afternoon's statement by Speaker John Bercow, would another HoC vote on a second Brexit referendum on or before March 29th now also be disallowed? Hopefully not...as I very much want there to be one, so that the our nearest neighbor's political mess can be reversed!

    Interesting observation. But in light of this, and Labour saying they planned on doing in later, I think it would be allowed.

    If was also an amendment I believe which gives him the leeway to allow it.


  • #785
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,010 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    They've left it too late in my opinion. Nothing to do with trade deals or actual mechanics of withdrawing A50.



    Let's see. I don't think TM will unilaterally revoke. And I don't think she will even get a vote in the HoC telling her to. She is more likely to have a heap of votes telling her what not to do.


    We will find out within the next two weeks. My money is against A50 being revoked. I hope I'm wrong, but lets see.


    I don't see how article 50 is revoked as there not enough support for it and I doubt she can do it without consent of parliament. Any choice from here on in will be tough to get through parliament as there is no consensus on what they want. Parliament had the opportunity to take control for a few days to debate the next steps but, as BJ would say, spaffed it up the wall.

    The crying from MPs over not being told there would not be another vote as it may have changed their last vote is too late. They should have stopped playing politics and taken this whole episode seriously. As it stands they are all upset because they have been caught with their pants down and are starting to realize that their actions could have serious consequences.


  • #786
    Dont be at yourself
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,451 ✭✭✭✭Dont be at yourself


    Got to be an extension and general election now. Tories to replace May, and Labour campaign on a customs union platform.

    Could very easily end up with a similarly divided parliament again of course.


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  • #787
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    RobertKK wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1107665317436837888?s=21

    Guy Verhofstadt not happy.

    There is an angle in the debate where the view is it is better for the UK to just leave the EU now for the sake of the EU.
    That if the UK were to remain they would just spread their toxic environment to others given whatever happens now people are going to be very unhappy.
    That the UK and their mess is taking up valuable time in the EU and people are fed up dealing with the nonsense in the withdrawal process.
    The feeling among some is just cut them lose and everyone can then move on.
    Some believe that things would get so bad for the UK under no deal, that they would come running back to the EU looking for a new deal and would the UK would in this situation go for a much softer Brexit so to exit the chaos of being in a no deal scenario.
    A bit like with the Greeks and they were not accepting of the deal, but after the banks ran out of money and the ATM machines not giving the money wanted, they then changed their minds.
    This could be where Brexit goes...maybe the UK has to go over the cliff before they see sense.

    Verhofstadt tweeted that before Bercow's speech so he is probably even more unhappier now.


  • #788
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    Lots of :eek: on Twitter and elsewhere, but remember folks, you read it here first! :p (or rather "there" at the end of the last Brexit thread ;) )



    This is by no means a green light for a no-deal Brexit - it's a warning to TM that it's time she stopped talking to the headbangers and reached out to the other parties. Given the very short time remaining, Kyle-Wilson is still the best hope for getting TM out of the hole she's dug, because without that - or something very similar - she has nothing to offer the EU.

    Fair play on that call, absolutely nailed it on first base. Quick question on indicative voting and where it might fit into your estimated timeline? Would it hsve much impact on the process do you think?


  • #789
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,010 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Popeleo wrote: »
    The one substantial change that could be easily made that stands out to me is making the backstop NI specific. The EU would have no problem with it - that was the original deal after all.

    Apart from the DUP, I doubt few brexiteers would see the it as a deal-breaker. And if it came to pass, what a waste of a golden opportunity for the NI economy.


    If she does that she loses her job. The DUP may not kick up a big fuss immediately but they would probably humiliate her with a budget that needs to pass.

    In any case, I am worried about the negotiations of the likes of Banks and Farage on the continent. We are at the mercy of some despicable politicians who has very little time for the rule of law.


  • #790
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Fair play on that call, absolutely nailed it on first base. Quick question on indicative voting and where it might fit into your estimated timeline? Would it hsve much impact on the process do you think?

    That is actually a remarkable call on Bercow. Bravo.


  • #791
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    That is actually a remarkable call on Bercow. Bravo.

    It truly was. I think I must’ve read about 50 brexit articles in the British weekend papers and im sure i didn’t see that eventuality speculated on in any of them.


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  • #792
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    She was planning another vote on Wednesday last I read. This basically trashes that now, yes?

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #793
    WhiteMan32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 680 ✭✭✭WhiteMan32


    Like they did to the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement, might the DUP now try to St. Andrew-ise the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement?


  • #794
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,282 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    A Govn't lad taking great umbrage at the audacity of the Speaker;
    Solicitor general says UK is in 'major constitutional crisis'
    This is from Robert Buckland, the solicitor general, on Bercow saying he might not allow a repeat vote on the Brexit deal. Buckland told BBC News:

    We are in a major constitutional crisis here.

    There are ways around this - a prorogation of parliament and a new session. We are talking about hours to March 29. Frankly we could have done without this.

    Now we have this ruling to deal with, it is clearly going to require a lot of very fast but very deep thought in the hours ahead. Guradian.


  • #795
    Infini
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,689 ✭✭✭Infini


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    She was planning another vote on Wednesday last I read. This basically trashes that now, yes?

    The last info for this was she was planming on delaying the 3rd vote. Bercow could've just decided to call time on these games by removing the decision from her hands until she either 1) Comes up with a realistic new plan or 2) abandons this farce.


  • #796
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    TM has insisted all along that to have another referendum would be "a denial of democracy". Now she discovers that Bercow is of the same opinion when it comes to resubmitting the same proposal in the HoC.
    Undoubtedly she will pretend to be surprised!


  • #797
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Infini wrote: »
    The last info for this was she was planming on delaying the 3rd vote. Bercow could've just decided to call time on these games by removing the decision from her hands until she either 1) Comes up with a realistic new plan or 2) abandons this farce.

    I think she can seek an extension but that would necessitate confronting the dilemma over elections for the European Parliament.

    But there are now less than 2 weeks remaining. If it passes, it'll be proper 11th hour stuff only this time the UK will come out worse. And they voted for it.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #798
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,318 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJX-8SsYzOs


    This is the full statement from the speaker of the House of Commons earlier. I think it's important to hear the whole thing as I'd actually only heard the very end. The speaker in fairness sets out the reasons and the precedent and the rule for his making the statement and what tests any further meaningful vote would have to pass before being "in order"


  • #799
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,334 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Water John wrote: »

    There are ways around this - a prorogation of parliament and a new session. We are talking about hours to March 29. Frankly we could have done without this.

    If you could even call a new session of parliament within the time left, the government are still looking down the barrel of a 3rd defeat.

    Don't really see the EU willing to extend by a few months on the basis of 3rd time lucky either.


  • #800
    RickBlaine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 813 ✭✭✭RickBlaine


    So TM has been denied another vote on an issue that was already voted upon. Now she knows how the 2nd ref supporters feel.


  • #801
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,697 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Water John wrote: »

    There are ways around this - a prorogation of parliament and a new session. We are talking about hours to March 29. Frankly we could have done without this.

    That would require the Queen's intervention and a whole formal ceremony. I can't see it happening, time is in short supply and the Monarchy would be dismayed at being drawn into a political crisis.

    I'd say a long extension agreement followed by an immediate general election is now more likely. Although a no deal Brexit has become a very real possibility now.


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  • #802
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,010 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    I see some tweets on how Bercow is one of the few whose reputations has actually been enhanced in all of this madness in the UK. He has become a sensation with his, "ORDER....Ordaahhhhh!!" and his rulings today shows he is not just a partisan hack doing his parties bidding. His reward for this, not getting a peerage as almost all speakers has done before in all likelihood. This because he has been fair in his rulings and it has upset the Conservatives and they want to get back at him.

    I was looking at his election wins and Labour, while never strong in his constituency, didn't run a candidate the last 2 elections. May be they respect him more than his own party members?


  • #803
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I see some tweets on how Bercow is one of the few whose reputations has actually been enhanced in all of this madness in the UK. He has become a sensation with his, "ORDER....Ordaahhhhh!!" and his rulings today shows he is not just a partisan hack doing his parties bidding. His reward for this, not getting a peerage as almost all speakers has done before in all likelihood. This because he has been fair in his rulings and it has upset the Conservatives and they want to get back at him.

    I was looking at his election wins and Labour, while never strong in his constituency, didn't run a candidate the last 2 elections. May be they respect him more than his own party members?

    Speaker is not opposed in an election. He is normally returned unopposed.


  • #804
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    That would require the Queen's intervention and a whole formal ceremony. I can't see it happening, time is in short supply and the Monarchy would be dismayed at being drawn into a political crisis.

    I'd say a long extension agreement followed by an immediate general election is now more likely. Although a no deal Brexit has become a very real possibility now.

    But they've voted against no Brexit.


  • #805
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Deleted User wrote: »
    But they've voted against no Brexit.

    Not in a legally binding manner though. No deal is the default legal position.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #806
    ToBeFrank123
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 2,175 ✭✭✭ToBeFrank123


    I can see the EU wanting a long extension and Brexiteers wanting a short extension and this becoming the next stupid battle the brexiteers want to fight with the EU. Its like they are trolling the EU at this stage.


  • #807
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,904 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Speaker is not opposed in an election. He is normally returned unopposed.

    Not really true, the election takes place but the Torys, LibDems and Labour have an agreement not to run a candidate against the speaker.


  • #808
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »
    I can see the EU wanting a long extension and Brexiteers wanting a short extension and this becoming the next stupid battle the brexiteers want to fight with the EU.

    Contesting the European Parliament elections is an important totem in my opinion. It's only symbolic but it does represent a significant delay in Brexit.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #809
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,761 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Not in a legally binding manner though. No deal is the default legal position.

    Was there any amendments put forward to change that default to revising article 50?


  • #810
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I see some tweets on how Bercow is one of the few whose reputations has actually been enhanced in all of this madness in the UK. He has become a sensation with his, "ORDER....Ordaahhhhh!!" and his rulings today shows he is not just a partisan hack doing his parties bidding. His reward for this, not getting a peerage as almost all speakers has done before in all likelihood. This because he has been fair in his rulings and it has upset the Conservatives and they want to get back at him.

    I was looking at his election wins and Labour, while never strong in his constituency, didn't run a candidate the last 2 elections. May be they respect him more than his own party members?

    Fair play to him. I always felt he was hamming it up in the commons a bit to garner as many headlines as possible but if he does his job, who cares? Definitely has the respect of all sides of the house which is all you can ask.

    Actually: probably fair to say he mightn’t hsve the respect of a rump of the Tory party but don’t believe that is any slight on him whatsoever.


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  • #811
    Popeleo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 423 ✭✭Popeleo


    Enzokk wrote: »
    If she does that she loses her job. The DUP may not kick up a big fuss immediately but they would probably humiliate her with a budget that needs to pass.

    In any case, I am worried about the negotiations of the likes of Banks and Farage on the continent. We are at the mercy of some despicable politicians who has very little time for the rule of law.


    I agree. But she has little time left whatever happens, so she could resign on a "high" shortly after getting her beloved deal through and ensuring that the will of the people was carried out, yada yada - the resignation speech writes itself.


This discussion has been closed.
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