Will Micheál Martin ever be Taoiseach?

Not a hope

FF will not make any headway until MM steps down as leader. They have a few smart young people. Past time one of them stepped up. MM would be good to have at cabinet level but the public dont want to see him as Taoiseach or Tanaiste.....he's too strongly linked to the Bertie era of FF.

His interview on the Late Late a few weeks ago said it all. He's not going to give up politics any time soon....even if FF have a bad election next time around. Me first...the party a distant second.

Give it up Micheal.

He will be Taoiseach, if FF are the major government party after the next election, whenever that is.

If they are not in government after that election, I expect he will move aside.
But, they don't have many alternatives who you could even put in the taoiseach conversation.

I'm impressed by him. I don't buy this simplistic view that they ruined the country given;
A, I think any Irish government (definitely including FG would have done the same at the time).
B, in spite of the problems we have (housing health etc), our economy still improved quite smoothly once things picked up. I'm not trying to be disingenuous to those who did suffer or ignore said problems but speaking simplistically, as a country, we got back to close to where we were before the crash within 10 years.

A big part of the reason I'm impressed is I think it was the mature and right thing for the country for MM to swallow party politics 12 months ago when Francis Fitzgerald resigned and not push for a GE because of critical nature of the Brexit negotiations at the time. Just after that, the backstop was agreed and signed in to the treaty negotiations. I do not think that would have happened had we been visibly fighting a GE at the time.
Which he did again last week.

amcalester wrote:

He graciously avoided a GE while FF were languishing in the polls, I wouldn't commend him for him poor performance as FF leader (according to the polls).

I'm not trying to be naive but I don't think it is as simple as that.

Some in his own party were suggesting an election should be held and they were looking at the same polls.

amcalester wrote:

Martin only has 1 more election, highly unlikely he'll be around if FF aren't in a position to form a government after the next election.

Agree.
I think he will make his move after Brexit (and border) issue is somewhat clearer.

If the outcome of that election is that he's not taoiseach, then he never will be.

I can't see Fianna Fail under the current leadership catching or over-taking Fine Gael. It's going to take another generation of politicians, one that further removed from the Bertie days.

From the day he came into the Dáil, Mícheál Martin has had a raging horn to be Taoiseach, the first Cork Taoiseach since Jack Lynch, (the real Taoiseach:)). So when the sh1t hit the fan with the last FF administration, who was the first man out the door when he saw the writing on the wall? Martin of course. He wanted to save his neck and be on the high moral ground (in so far as he could be after all that went on). If FF had any sense at that time, they would have got rid of ALL the old hands, including Martin, anyone indeed with connections back to Bertie and before. They should have then re-branded the party, (even Fianna Nua would have done), anything to distance themselves from all that had gone before. I believe that if they had done that, they would be in a better electoral position today. But Martin clung on, is now the leader, and still wants desperately to be Taoiseach at some stage.
As far back as I can remember, the running of the country has been carved up between FF & FG. There have been interlopers over the years, Labour has ebbed & flowed, the PD's were a fabulous firework show that lit up the political night sky for a time until they fizzled out eventually leaving darkness and a faint smell of sulphur in the air. A great light show though, while it lasted. But always FF & FG were the main protagonists.
And despite the current shenanigans, I see FF going along with the C&S agreement as long as it suits Martin (i.e. until such time as he thinks he can get more seats that FG). And if there’s an election, and he does get more seats, there will be another C&S agreement, only this time it’ll be FF cobbling together a mish mash coalition and Leo who’ll be propping them up, as FF is propping up Leo at the moment. I believe this is already agreed, however tacitly. This is because both parties are running scared from the rise & rise of the Shinners, and neither of the big parties want the Shinners to be in government or be seen as the main opposition party, yet they are hoisted on their own petard in this regard, for as long as either of them prop up the government of the day, they can’t be the main opposition as well! And they won’t ever go into coalition with one another, as this would automatically mean that the Shinners would then be undeniably the main opposition party. (Although if they were to go into coalition together, they could probably be in power for the next 50 years or more in some shape or form. It’s a wonder no one in either party has twigged this)
The Shinners though have their own problems. A huge proportion of the population will never vote for them, myself included, as they still hear the IRA skeletons rattling in the cupboard, (although these are inaudible to younger voters), and in general, their economic policies are vague and not very well thought out, and more than likely will involve taking even more money from people like me who feel they have worked hard all their lives for what they have, and don’t want the Shinners purloining it on them if they get into power.
So I see no election just yet, but Martin will cling on to the leadership until it does come, whenever that may be. His future then depends very much on the outcome.

No, never. He needs to realise that and he needs to step down if they are ever to have a chance at government again. Tbh FF are the most boring and lack lustre party out there at the moment. No new blood, no charisma, no new ideas, same old ****e spend spend and God will send. There's not one of them I'd be impressed by, not even one.

I agree a coalition between FF and SF will likely happen before too long though, but I'd say it'll take a couple of deadlocked elections to wear down the resistance to it before it happens.

No - he's effectively an interim leader while the party puts distance between itself and the tiger era. The last step of that process will be replacing MM with someone who wasn't involved with Bertie & Biffo.

Also as others have said, coalition with SF is their most likely route back, MM has repeatedly ruled that out so it would probably have to be with someone else as leader (& he may not have much say in the matter if they don't make some headway at the next election).

Micheal Martin is linked to all the scandalous stuff that happened and as long as he is leader of FF they will never recover. When he goes they may eventually get back to where they were. There isn't any serious opposition to them in this country.

MikeyTaylor wrote:

Do you think FF will ever get into power with him as their leader?

I don't think they will but I don't think that it's down him. He'll be gone as leader by the time the party comes back enough in the polls. I don't believe that he is holding the party back.

Personally I think he has done a good job in opposition.

blanch152 wrote:

I do not agree with the direction they are taking this country in relation to environmental issues and carbon tax, but they have never presided over a mess in the way that FF have.

FG just haven't been in power long enough. The budgets since the troika have left have been reckless imo