Hurricane Leslie

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2018 6:19am #1

024015_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.faa908ee094a8e734458758ef75f4d3d.png

INIT 13/0300Z 34.7N 20.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 36.5N 15.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 38.9N 9.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1200Z 41.0N 5.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0000Z 42.3N 1.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late Saturday as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain Saturday night and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

It's currently far weaker than Ophelia was at this latitude but can still pack a punch in to the Iberian peninsula and may still make landfall as a hurricane (i.e not lose it's tropical characteristics) in Lisbon.

It is the last remaining hurricane in the Atlantic.

M.T. Cranium · 13-10-2018 7:23am

ECM maps suggest about a 55-knot tropical storm intensity and north of Lisbon, GFS backed down to a weaker storm after looking quite strong earlier, and their track has slipped further south almost to Faro now. The remnants in both cases track across Spain weakening steadily.

Will be interesting to see which model is closer. If it's a compromise the remnant low will hit Lisbon around midnight.

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 12:06pm

On a Portuguese forum they're really pissed that 2 out of their 3 rainfall radars are out of service just as ex-Leslie approaches. Seems like other countries have their Shannons too...

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 12:43pm

Still a spread in the ECM ensemble members on the exact track of Leslie, but the intensity seems more locked in. Rrapidly indergoing extratropical transition this morning but strong cold advection should still keep the intensity up around borderline hurricane-force.

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2018 3:30pm

First advisory from the NHC was Sept. 23. Been on a long meander since and finally making landfall onto the Portuguese coast tonight.

cfFtvSG.jpg?1

NHC

Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 36.2N 16.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 37.7N 11.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 14/0600Z 39.6N 6.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 41.3N 2.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2018 3:32pm

OneEightSeven · 13-10-2018 7:13pm

She's lost her tropical characteristics, the eyewall collapsed.

https://twitter.com/TheWeatherMastr/status/1051158881773281280

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 8:06pm

Nice way of displaying and describing the warnings on the Portuguese met's website. They give the percentage probabities of various gust thresholds.

For Lisbon, 65% chance of >130 kph, 40% of >145 kph and 10% of 180/190 kph or greater. The TAF for Lisbon Portela airport gives PROB30 gusts to 60 kt while nearby Montijo military base gusts to 70 kts.

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 9:50pm

Live obs here. Santa Cruz airport is highest at the moment on a mean of 47 kph.

M.T. Cranium · 13-10-2018 10:46pm

Peak gusts 101 km/hr at recent observation. ECM won the battle of the models on this one.

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 10:59pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Peak gusts 101 km/hr at recent observation. ECM won the battle of the models on this one.

The GFS was about 200 km off track earlier today. Magnificent model...

Leslie made landfall near Figueira da Foz a short time ago.

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 11:05pm

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2018 11:59pm

It's being reported on a Portuguese forum that the IPMA (Portuguese met) have said on TV that there was a gust of 176 kph at Figueira da Foz, (4 m amsl) the landfall location.

Rhineshark · 14-10-2018 7:38am

How unusual is this landfall? I know the Iberian peninsula gets hit occassionally but Leslie pootled around for ages before apparently deciding to holiday in Portugal. Leslie seemed a bit of an odd one?

Gaoth Laidir · 14-10-2018 1:32pm

https://twitter.com/Fergaltierney/status/1051450282285170690?s=19

Gaoth Laidir · 14-10-2018 2:05pm

Gusts 100+ kph in Portugal (including Madeira, which was affected yesterday morning).

176,4km/h - Figueira da Foz;
122,0km/h - Coimbra Aeródromo;
120,2km/h - Aveiro Universidade;
118,1km/h - Madeira, Lombo da Terça;
116,3km/h - Pampilhosa da Serra, Fajão;
108,7km/h - Madeira, Areeiro;
106,6km/h - Penhas Douradas;
100,1km/h - Viseu Aeródromo e Cabo Carvoeiro.

sdanseo · 14-10-2018 3:54pm

Portugal's met website really is absolutely shocking. Puts any of our complaints about met.ie into perpective.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-10-2018 11:27am

The Portuguese Met are calling it a sting jet.

http://www.ipma.pt/pt/media/noticias/news.detail.jsp?f=/pt/media/noticias/textos/leslie-3.html

Gaoth Laidir · 15-10-2018 7:49pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

How unusual is this landfall? I know the Iberian peninsula gets hit occassionally but Leslie pootled around for ages before apparently deciding to holiday in Portugal. Leslie seemed a bit of an odd one?

Leslie started off as an extratropical disturbance that meandered around a bit south for a couple of days, became a tropical storm, then back to extratropical cyclone, bombed to hurricane -strength, then back to subtropical storm, then hurricane, back to tropical storm, hurricane, then home.

It just got caught in a col out in mid-Atlantic, the same way Harvey and Florence and others have from time to time.

https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1051527263114522624?s=19

M.T. Cranium · 15-10-2018 11:30pm

The really odd thing is that the remnants of Michael ended up hitting northwest Spain and northern Portugal, the strongest wind gust I could see on land being only 59 km/hr almost 24 hours ago in north-central Portugal, and about 50 km/hr about 12 hours ago in northern Spain.

It was a bit of a fluke really for Michael to come out into the Atlantic at considerable strength, hit the jet with a running start then just get shunted south of Ireland altogether. But nobody's complaining about it, I suppose, after all the rain over the weekend.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-10-2018 9:51am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The really odd thing is that the remnants of Michael ended up hitting northwest Spain and northern Portugal, the strongest wind gust I could see on land being only 59 km/hr almost 24 hours ago in north-central Portugal, and about 50 km/hr about 12 hours ago in northern Spain.

It was a bit of a fluke really for Michael to come out into the Atlantic at considerable strength, hit the jet with a running start then just get shunted south of Ireland altogether. But nobody's complaining about it, I suppose, after all the rain over the weekend.

There were higher gusts reported at some of the non-synoptic stations yesterday. 97 kph at Santa Cruz was the highest, but there were several more >60 kph. See here

http://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/obs.superficie/index-map-dia-chart.jsp#V.N.Cerveira%20(Aer%C3%B3dromo)

Meteorite58 · 20-10-2018 7:23pm

A humble ECMWF

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1053313627766300673

Pa ElGrande · 22-10-2018 6:09am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1JeRQnpkM0

Europe rarely ever sees full-on hurricanes reach its shores. But that may not always be the case.

Hurricane Leslie

Comments