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EuroMillion - MainBalls - Selections

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  • #152
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    RayCun wrote: »
    But there have been 700 draws. Your theory is that you can use the results of past draws to predict future draws, so 700 draws to use.

    Individually they don't matter, over larger spans of time, they are used in one of the many methods. Unless you think every single draw is important, because quantum or something like that.
    RayCun wrote: »
    So, as I said, don't make consistent testable predictions, but post stuff afterwards.

    As I said, if you don't like, then it clear off. I make suggestions and post when there is correcation to those suggestions
    RayCun wrote: »
    I'm talking about basic experimental protocol.

    Is that like quantum? As mentioned you can set you own conditions, and I'll set mine. What's useful to me, may not be to you.
    RayCun wrote: »
    Anyone can pick a random set of numbers every week, and some of them will come up, sometimes. How do you know if your method is more or less successful than pure chance?

    If there are any sign of correlation. At end of year assesment can also be mesaured as profit or loss. Bear in mind access to markets suggest from outset there should be some defualt disadvantage, thus even a BE-point would suggest a market advantage.

    But again still in a better default than 100m or so Europeans availing of their euromillon shop tickets ever week, up to a certain target. You should really question those 100m people across europe.
    RayCun wrote: »
    The fact that some lotteries have better odds than others is not a secret, or controversial.

    That fact that 100m people in Europe hoping to become e.g. a millionaire have such a minor chance compared to me, for the (same) 'Euromillions' lottery is rather interesting.
    RayCun wrote: »
    You claim that past draws influence future draws, a classic example of the gambler's fallacy.

    Tell that to the Jockey/Trainer choosing the horse for the GrandNational. Obvs not as relevant here, but form patterns may still exist.

    Last 2yrs vs the previous (not inclusive) vs the seperate 5yrs before that (no to scale), Going all the way back 14yrs is also interesting.

    NNG1BZF.png
    RayCun wrote: »
    The large hadron collider is just the latest and greatest of a long series of experimental setups.

    Correct, 'experiments' based purely on theories and hypothesis.

    Obvs not private funded or by anyone especting any financal reward.
    Why would you invest in theory that often produces unexpected results. Other than for ego, status or the value of unknown knowledge itself.
    RayCun wrote: »
    So, since you keep describing this as an experiment, do it properly!

    How do you know all of the conditions and methods of this experiment, it's purely experimental, meaning these condition are not set, and may dynamically evolve and mature over time. Again your basic conditions, are not my condtions.

    Anyway will let you get back to thread bashing the religious folks, experimental theorists, theologists or whatever you enjoy, during your time on Earth.


  • #153
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    Maybe you should just stop using the word 'experiment' since you don't understand what it means.


  • #154
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    filbert the fox wrote: »
    right lads and lassies How are we going to get something out of this. Is it possible at all to get more than one puts in by logic.

    There are five numbers out of 50 so is it logical to assume that statistically they should be random enough to come from each decade e.g.

    2* / 19 / 23 / 31 / 47

    i'm not predicting anything so don't play these.

    Reasonable effort using the basic spread method with one positive result (2), results came from x3 decades [ 2 / 4 / 8 / 27 / 50 ]. If ever in doubt pick ball 50, which has exceed all other balls by some margin over 14yrs.


  • #155
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    RayCun wrote: »
    Maybe you should just stop using the word 'experiment' since you don't understand what it means.

    Maybe you should get some rest to prepare to harass those church goers over the weekend, or anyone doing anything scientifically unproven.


  • #156
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,763 ✭✭✭jacool


    filbert the fox wrote: »
    There are five numbers out of 50 so is it logical to assume that statistically they should be random enough to come from each decade e.g.
    2
    19
    23
    31
    47
    i'm not predicting anything so don't play these.
    I know they are all random but is it a possibility that there's a slight advantage to this thinking?:rolleyes:

    Last night's result 07-17-29-37-45
    You weren't in Switzerland, were you?


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  • #157
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Those Swiss folks aren't short of cash, may well have been won by some bulk-buy syndicate of shifty banker*ankers.

    Although a slightly larger population than Ire, they (Swi) have only 3 total jackpot winners.

    AFAIK that was the biggest jackpot of the year since Feb 23rd.
    Some of the lowest jackpots are only 1/10th of this, so syndicate, a plausable scenario.
    Likely 100m+ people played EM yesterday due to this XL jackpot.

    Will run 1-5hotpicks of expected hot bals inc: 13, 18, 35 over the next week
    as a couple of these are running close to max overdue span.

    If seeking sequentials 32-35 arrays of double/treble are ideal,
    even though the most common recent consecutives are 26-29 inc.

    Interesting this jackpot results included peak performer of the last 2yrs: 27.
    If doing standard syndicate shop tickets, recommend to avoid, until rollover+.


  • #158
    filbert the fox
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭filbert the fox


    jacool wrote: »
    Last night's result 07-17-29-37-45
    You weren't in Switzerland, were you?

    Nien :o


  • #159
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    filbert the fox wrote: »
    There are five numbers out of 50 so is it logical to assume that statistically they should be random enough to come from each decade e.g.

    2 / 19 / 23 / 31 / 47

    Just realised the 2nd biggest jackpot of the year was won by someone using this similar random (but non-random) theory.

    7 / 17 / 29 / 37 / 45

    Indeed the mega jackpot had an average space of '9.5' between each of the 5 balls, across 5 decades, could be some support for this.

    Using this would also significantly reduce the odds (for the 5balls anyway) from winning 1m, currently 2,118,760/1 to something far, far less.

    --

    Also noticed one site (behind a paywall) specified they used 'crowd wisdom' for their selections. I.e. All their members making a suggestion and aggregating a final selection from this. Would be very sceptical about anything asking for a 'fee'. But this (apparently) was their latest prediction on Tue:

    3qM4FXZ.png

    Now (if) their 'crowd wisdom' holds true should see 10, 25 or 36 on Friday...


  • #160
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,763 ✭✭✭jacool


    filbert the fox wrote: »
    Nien :o

    It wasn't you so. Nein didn't come out.


  • #161
    filbert the fox
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭filbert the fox


    jacool wrote: »
    It wasn't you so. Nein didn't come out.

    Right you asked for it

    How about 21, 40, 41, 3, 24

    and 7, 8 lucky stars.

    sort of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 type sequence :)


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  • #162
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    filbert the fox wrote: »
    Right you asked for it

    How about 21, 40, 41, 3, 24

    20% hit rate, the spread technique is still holding up (4 decades), but the even numbers (often under represented) made a showing tonight.

    Stars aren't even worth considering as they bump the odds to 132m/1. Effectively 7 balls.

    h0ykHSY.png

    That super primary '35' has been scratched off now for a week or two anyway. Had it across most 4/5 picks tonight, maybe overall average hit rate around 30%, just no matches on it's supplimentals.


  • #163
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,763 ✭✭✭jacool


    Maddox Spicy Backhand wrote: »
    That super primary '35' has been scratched off now for a week or two anyway. Had it across most 4/5 picks tonight, maybe overall average hit rate around 30%, just no matches on it's supplimentals.
    Unlucky with #35 there.
    At least it came out 4th, so you weren't on a massive sweat. On a 45/1 shot for the double.

    I have the first 300 draws to update on my spreadsheet.

    Some big gaps in those numbers as well 2 - 11 - 14 - 18 - 43
    Only #08 out in the last 10 draws


  • #164
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    jacool wrote: »
    Unlucky with #35 there.
    At least it came out 4th, so you weren't on a massive sweat. On a 45/1 shot for the double.

    I have the first 300 draws to update on my spreadsheet.

    Some big gaps in those numbers as well 2 - 11 - 14 - 18 - 43
    Only #08 out in the last 10 draws

    Was keen for that super primary #35 as it approached peak absense circa 140 days or so. If was doing a Pick1 wouldn't have done it, only use as a selection for all others to prevent P1 burnout.

    For Tues actually like a couple of (sequential doubles) namely {12+13} and {18+19}. 'Lucky13 ball' is my new superprime, and 18 also a good standard prime. Having had a great time of late, is still surprisingly on a slight defecit.

    Wouldn't be as brave to run seq triples as you have, but considering just running 1500/1 triples next month on, as it may be optimum risk-reward.

    Getting a few of the 100notes for 1.50 double (66/1) is fine, but not as interesting as the 3baller odds.


  • #165
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    In a rare case after a few draws, the selections remain largely unchanged tonight.
    The only exception was the seq' double of 12+13 has been dropped, as 12 has appeared now twice in a row.

    13+18, and 32+33 would make a nice pair of doubles tonight.

    Aside from a handfull of hot balls (maybe additional picks from 19, 39, 40, 41, 47),
    there is actually a special 'cold ball' that has recently become hot i.e. 48, and maybe even 23 at a stretch.

    Did a rare 4ball selection for 30k target, (46,060/1),
    but will likely aim only for Pick3 1.5k lines (1,960/1) in the near future.


  • #166
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    Maddox Spicy Backhand wrote: »
    In a rare case after a few draws, the selections remain largely unchanged tonight.
    The only exception was the seq' double of 12+13 has been dropped, as 12 has appeared now twice in a row.

    13+18, and 32+33 would make a nice pair of doubles tonight.

    Aside from a handfull of hot balls (maybe additional picks from 19, 39, 40, 41, 47),
    there is actually a special 'cold ball' that has recently become hot i.e. 48, and maybe even 23 at a stretch.

    Did a rare 4ball selection for 30k target, (46,060/1),
    but will likely aim only for Pick3 1.5k lines (1,960/1) in the near future.

    Where you do the bets online or in store?


  • #167
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    sasta le wrote: »
    Where you do the bets online or in store?

    Can be done eitherway, but odds vary. Was traveling via the uk this week so did the EM-HP docket direct from a shop, the Camelot crowd there is the only method of attempting the 1m (for 5balls). https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/euromillions-hotpicks.

    Bet365 used to offer this along with B'Fred and Boyles (online) but the regular lotto folks were loosing out on sales, and complained so can only be done in bookie shops now.

    If you're aiming for the 1m, best to get a contact in the uk to do it, ideally with some sort of comission agreement beforehand to avoid dispute, should you ever win. Imagine lotto.ie will introduce a similar hotpicks in the near future, (well if they've any sense).


  • #168
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Rolling with familar hot balls tonight, so holding a fairly static forecast for a change.

    Had a gawk over at a 'WoC' website forecast (not exactly science), they have one match to my primaries.

    87h2SJi.png

    They also generally match at least one main ball per draw.
    Mix in hot balls e.g. 13+19 to these and (ideally) it's ka-ching.


  • #169
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Just one of the hot balls tonight, no sign of the others.

    EubBdPp.pngb4eqHq8.png

    Ball 13 has just passed 150days, a possibility for Friday.


  • #170
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    Slowly getting into this I see 13 still on the overdue list


  • #171
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    sasta le wrote: »
    Slowly getting into this I see 13 still on the overdue list

    Yes that's one metric or variable, when day 150+ is reached it perhaps becomes even more important.

    Sometimes use up to about 15 different and evolving factors when making final selections.

    Of course, it's all just theory and not science or anything, clearly due to the random event nature of this (and all) lottos. So suggestions should only be taken at 'entertainment value'.

    This hotpick(5) market does however offer the best chance of winning a target of 1m perhaps of any lotto.

    In fact it's about x70 better chance of 7-figures than the standard Euromillions draw that 80-100m people play throughout Europe weekly.

    Current focus is pick2/3, then 4, then the 5.

    Perhaps a better example is that tonight 47 people in Ire matched 4 balls in the EM main draw (all be it from 5 choices). But they won just €61. Sixty one euro.

    Hotpick(4), from 4 selections would have returned 30k, and for a smaller outlay.


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  • #172
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    Maddox Spicy Backhand wrote: »
    Yes that's one metric or variable, when day 150+ is reached it perhaps becomes even more important.

    Sometimes use up to about 15 different and evolving factors when making final selections.

    Of course, it's all just theory and not science or anything, clearly due to the random event nature of this (and all) lottos. So suggestions should only be taken at 'entertainment value'.

    This hotpick(5) market does however offer the best chance of winning a target of 1m perhaps of any lotto.

    In fact it's about x70 better chance of 7-figures than the standard Euromillions draw that 80-100m people play throughout Europe weekly.

    Current focus is pick2/3, then 4, then the 5.

    Perhaps a better example is that tonight 47 people in Ire matched 4 balls in the EM main draw (all be it from 5 choices). But they won just €61. Sixty one euro.

    Hotpick(4), from 4 selections would have returned 30k, and for a smaller outlay.

    €61 for 4 balls wow that’s a poor return


  • #173
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Haven't got chance to update the charts, but the last 3 draws have all seen one of the super primaries appearing (18, 32, and the {hot} cold ball 48).

    • Fri 26 Oct 05 - 18^ - 21 - 31 - 35
    • Tue 23 Oct 01 - 02 - 05 - 21 - 32^
    • Fri 19 Oct 01 - 03 - 29 - 47 - 48^

    For tonight, it's tempting to go just with a single ball, at 10/1 or so.
    Instead of the usual doubles, or the planned all trebles.
    This method is perhaps the most basic but with nearly t-160days, worth considering.

    As we may very well see 'ball 13', now missing for 44draws (x9 is the average gap).


  • #174
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    Maddox Spicy Backhand wrote: »
    Haven't got chance to update the charts, but the last 3 draws have all seen one of the super primaries appearing (18, 32, and the {hot} cold ball 48).

    • Fri 26 Oct 05 - 18^ - 21 - 31 - 35
    • Tue 23 Oct 01 - 02 - 05 - 21 - 32^
    • Fri 19 Oct 01 - 03 - 29 - 47 - 48^

    For tonight, it's tempting to go just with a single ball, at 10/1 or so.
    Instead of the usual doubles, or the planned all trebles.
    This method is perhaps the most basic but with nearly t-160days, worth considering.

    As we may very well see 'ball 13', now missing for 44draws (x9 is the average gap).

    Where you get 10 to 1 for a single ball?What would be the most overdue numbers?


  • #175
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    sasta le wrote: »
    Where you get 10 to 1 for a single ball?What would be the most overdue numbers?

    11.0 (10/1) is the actual probability for a ball /50 to appear from the 5 main balls drawn, but most of the bookies will offer around 9.0 (8/1) on the single ball, which is a close enough (82%) margin of actual probability.

    Odds & news tags here:

    The most 'overdue ball', is the most overdue ball, which is currently lucky '13' hasn't been seen in over 160days.


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