Breaky Bitcoin Blues

[Deleted User] · 13-09-2018 10:10am

Grayson wrote: »

Not really. The thing to remember is that neither of them know for certain. There's no way to tell how crypto's will go in the long run. For some we can make certain limited predictions. Bit coin will never replace currency. There's a goods example of a bar in San Francisco that accepts bitcoin as payment. However it takes hours to process a transaction so it's useless as an actual currency to buy stuff. There are newer crypto's that don't have that problem but you need a stable one if it's going to replace physical currency.

However as an investment it's all a bit up in the air. I know a guy who retired because of his bitcoin investment. He was lucky. Others like the ones in the OP will lose money. Really when you get down to it, people who invest are betting money. And they're betting on something that's incredibly new, that doesn't always follow the rules of a traditional market. My personal advice would be to have a flutter. It's fun having a few quid in the game and watching your money go up and down. But don't bet the house on it because you could lose it all and no-one can tell you 100% whether you will win or lose.

Even being aware that it's all up in the air makes you more informed than some on here.

valoren · 13-09-2018 10:11am

It's not investing. It's speculation and nothing more. There's a big difference between the two.

An investor has a reasonable expectation for future growth of capital i.e. to turn their €1 into €2 or €10 or €25 over a long enough time frame based on historical earnings growth rates e.g. you see a company growing annual earnings at 5%, their dividend growth clipping along at 8% per year, the price has outperformed the market benchmark and thus I will invest in it to increase the future value of my $1 should this pattern continue. You even get cold hard cash as well. Any level headed investor knows that the established pattern may not be the case, the value, earnings, dividends may fall, the investment might collapse and so they don't do something stupid like investing everything, or money they can afford to lose or something really stupid like buying it all on margin to leverage their gains. If they are knowing enough and have paid a fair price for their investment, then they welcome with open arms market corrections as they are able to invest more capital, reinvest growing dividends to rocket fuel their initial €1. The power of compounding is the investors friend and a successful investment is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

A trader focuses on price and the expectation that they will be able to pocket the difference when selling to another speculator if they agree to buy it from you. Professional and competent amateur traders use rigid systems, entry points, stop losses, position sizes etc to mitigate risk because they know trading is basically like sophisticated coin flipping. If such a trader is wrong then they might lose 2-5% of their capital thanks to the rigid risk management. They get trading signals and use position sizing to determine their investment lots, they utilize stop losses so when the coin flip is wrong they only lose a certain amount and they sell their positions when predetermined points are reached. They go long, they go short, they trend follow prices focusing on profiting from the rise or fall of the price of anything given a value e.g. gold, cotton, coffee, TSLA stock. Price volatility is the traders friend,

A speculator has none of the above tempered expectations of the investor and the trader. They focus on nothing more than swinging for the fences and usually with significant investments and with money they can't afford to lose. They are the late comers to the bubbles, the elderly looking to make up on past missed big winners, they are the instant gratification generation. The want to turn their €1 into €25 in the space of weeks and months, not over the course of decades. Anyone asking basic due diligence questions are scorned and mocked. They don't get it. This time it's different. People, friends, pointing out very feasible risks is discomfiting for them and they become agitated, mocking and insulting to people who simply want to make them see the sense of the investor and the trader. When the speculation atypically doesn't work out, when the easy riches fail to arrive, they lose 100% and someone else is usually blamed for it with the typical excuse being that they've been scammed or conned. No. You were greedy and got burned for being greedy. They might be lucky to still have the friends they chastised but they will certainly have no money or capital when their ignorant flip of the coin back fires.

The below article is a sobering read about wellintentioned but greedy investors who got burned on nothing more than speculating on a company.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/gt-advanced-technologies-bankruptcy/

RIGOLO · 13-09-2018 10:33am

valoren wrote: »

It's not investing. It's speculation and nothing more. There's a big difference between the two.

An investor has a reasonable expectation for future growth of capital i.e. to turn their €1 into €2 or €10 or €25 over a long enough time frame based on historical earnings growth rates e.g. you see a company growing annual earnings at 5%, their dividend growth clipping along at 8% per year, the price has outperformed the market benchmark and thus I will invest in it to increase the future value of my $1 should this pattern continue. You even get cold hard cash as well. Any level headed investor knows that the established pattern may not be the case, the value, earnings, dividends may fall, the investment might collapse and so they don't do something stupid like investing everything, or money they can afford to lose or something really stupid like buying it all on margin to leverage their gains. If they are knowing enough and have paid a fair price for their investment, then they welcome with open arms market corrections as they are able to invest more capital, reinvest growing dividends to rocket fuel their initial €1. The power of compounding is the investors friend and a successful investment is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

A trader focuses on price and the expectation that they will be able to pocket the difference when selling to another speculator if they agree to buy it from you. Professional traders, speculators use systems, entry points, stop losses, position sizes etc to mitigate risk because they know trading is basically like sophisticated coin flipping. They get trading signals and use position sizing to determine their investment lots, they utilize stop losses so when the coin flip is wrong they only lose a certain amount and they sell their positions when predetermined points are reached. They go long, they go short, they trend follow prices focusing on profiting from the rise or fall of the price of anything given a value e.g. gold, cotton, coffee, TSLA stock. Price volatility is the traders friend,

A speculator has none of the above tempered expectations of the investor and the trader. They focus on nothing more than swinging for the fences and usually with significant investments and with money they can't afford to lose. They are the late comers to the bubbles, the elderly looking to make up on past missed big winners, they are the instant gratification generation. Anyone asking basic due diligence questions are scorned and mocked. They don't get it. This time it's different. People, of friends, pointing out very feasible risks is discomfiting for them and they become agitated, mocking and insulting to people who simply want to make them see the sense of the investor and the trader. When the speculation (the pyramid scheme, the sure fire winning stock, the alt coin) atypically doesn't work out, when the easy riches fail to arrive, someone else is usually blamed for it with the typical excuse being that they've been scammed or conned. No. You were greedy and got burned for being greedy. They might be lucky to still have the friends they chastised but they will certainly have no money or capital when their ignorant flip of the coin back fires.

The below article is a sobering read about wellintentioned but greedy investors who got burned on nothing more than speculating on a company.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/gt-advanced-technologies-bankruptcy/

And if you believe all of that , then you probably havent been paying attention to the financial markets for the short but brief history of this millenium ....

Canis Lupus · 13-09-2018 11:03am

Look guys. I've never had any financial experience other than having a bank account and this one time taking out a car loan but I've read lots of internet articles and I follow a few people on twitter who are in the know and I'm literally an expert on crypto and financial markets now so when you say cryptos are a scam you literally know nothing and clearly I shouldn't be wasting my time talking to you about how all my money is invested in them. HODL people, HODL!!!

The Tetrarch · 13-09-2018 11:11am

seamus wrote: »

The age-old rule still applies; once the dogs on the street and the taximen are giving investment advice, you've already missed the boat and the wheels are about to come off.

Before the great Wall Street crash on 1929 one investor realised it was time to sell up when the shoe-shine boy on the way to work gave him share tips while shining his shoes.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 11:59am

valoren wrote: »

It's not investing. It's speculation and nothing more. There's a big difference between the two.

An investor has a reasonable expectation for future growth of capital i.e. to turn their €1 into €2 or €10 or €25 over a long enough time frame based on historical earnings growth rates e.g. you see a company growing annual earnings at 5%, their dividend growth clipping along at 8% per year, the price has outperformed the market benchmark and thus I will invest in it to increase the future value of my $1 should this pattern continue. You even get cold hard cash as well. Any level headed investor knows that the established pattern may not be the case, the value, earnings, dividends may fall, the investment might collapse and so they don't do something stupid like investing everything, or money they can afford to lose or something really stupid like buying it all on margin to leverage their gains. If they are knowing enough and have paid a fair price for their investment, then they welcome with open arms market corrections as they are able to invest more capital, reinvest growing dividends to rocket fuel their initial €1. The power of compounding is the investors friend and a successful investment is about as exciting as watching paint dry.

A trader focuses on price and the expectation that they will be able to pocket the difference when selling to another speculator if they agree to buy it from you. Professional and competent amateur traders use rigid systems, entry points, stop losses, position sizes etc to mitigate risk because they know trading is basically like sophisticated coin flipping. If such a trader is wrong then they might lose 2-5% of their capital thanks to the rigid risk management. They get trading signals and use position sizing to determine their investment lots, they utilize stop losses so when the coin flip is wrong they only lose a certain amount and they sell their positions when predetermined points are reached. They go long, they go short, they trend follow prices focusing on profiting from the rise or fall of the price of anything given a value e.g. gold, cotton, coffee, TSLA stock. Price volatility is the traders friend,

A speculator has none of the above tempered expectations of the investor and the trader. They focus on nothing more than swinging for the fences and usually with significant investments and with money they can't afford to lose. They are the late comers to the bubbles, the elderly looking to make up on past missed big winners, they are the instant gratification generation. The want to turn their €1 into €25 in the space of weeks and months, not over the course of decades. Anyone asking basic due diligence questions are scorned and mocked. They don't get it. This time it's different. People, friends, pointing out very feasible risks is discomfiting for them and they become agitated, mocking and insulting to people who simply want to make them see the sense of the investor and the trader. When the speculation atypically doesn't work out, when the easy riches fail to arrive, they lose 100% and someone else is usually blamed for it with the typical excuse being that they've been scammed or conned. No. You were greedy and got burned for being greedy. They might be lucky to still have the friends they chastised but they will certainly have no money or capital when their ignorant flip of the coin back fires.

The below article is a sobering read about wellintentioned but greedy investors who got burned on nothing more than speculating on a company.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/gt-advanced-technologies-bankruptcy/

Yeah fake news, what happened in 2008 when the investors all went bust, theres an endless list of failed investment institutions, stop talking through your a$$.

asteroids over berlin · 13-09-2018 12:01pm

seamus wrote: »

I'm afraid nox, with all due respect, this belief that a rally is more likely than a collapse reveals your ignorance about just what bitcoin is.

Physical assets have a residual value. When you buy a property and lose your hole on it, you still have a physical asset. It probably has some utility, and at the very least you'll have something that you can sell, that someone will buy at some price. At some point, that asset's utility will be realised, and its value increased.

This is not the case with crypto. The bitcoins you hold, have no utility. They cannot be used for anything but selling to someone else. They will never become a proper currency. That ship has sailed.

What's worse is that the cost of selling your bitcoins increases over time. The longer you hold, the more it will cost to sell. This is generally not a feature of any other asset. The cost of selling a house remains largely fixed (in fact, it often drops with the price). The cost of selling gold, or oil, is largely fixed.

For bitcoin, the cost of selling increases every time a transaction is made, regardless of the value of the coin.

Thus it is inevitable that the value of bitcoin will continue to drop, and drop sharply, as the cost of selling outweighs any potential return for users or processors.

And unlike other assets where something exists which you have to deal with, bitcoin can simply be deleted, gone. And what's worse - you don't know when someone else has deleted their coins. There are millions of bitcoins which have been mined, and never used. For all you know, these have been deleted.
In a traditional market, this increases the value of your asset. With Bitcoin, it makes it uncertain. You could be holding the only bitcoin left in existence, but you'd never be able to know. That makes it worthless.

Sell now, get out while you have something. In a decade, bitcoin will be a piece of history and nothing more.

Most of what you state here is wrong. For example, You can pay for goods in many parts of the world with Bitcoin, particularly Asia/Japan, indeed there is also a coffee shop in dear ol Dublin that accepts Bitcoin. It is only the birth of things to come, still a long long way to go though - it won't go away ya know!

"
And unlike other assets where something exists which you have to deal with, bitcoin can simply be deleted, gone. And what's worse - you don't know when someone else has deleted their coins."
You can burn 50 quid and it's gone/worthless, who else will know?

JohnnyFlash · 13-09-2018 12:10pm

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

Most of what you state here is wrong. For example, You can pay for goods in many parts of the world with Bitcoin, particularly Asia/Japan, indeed there is also a coffee shop in dear ol Dublin that accepts Bitcoin. It is only the birth of things to come, still a long long way to go though - it won't go away ya know!

"
And unlike other assets where something exists which you have to deal with, bitcoin can simply be deleted, gone. And what's worse - you don't know when someone else has deleted their coins."
You can burn 50 quid and it's gone/worthless, who else will know?

The cafe is closed. Bitcoin doesn’t work as a method of payment. It’s very complicated, very expensive, and confirmations take minutes, not seconds. It has failed as a method of payment. Hell, it’s not even being used for drugs and child pornography on the dark web anymore.

valoren · 13-09-2018 12:10pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

Yeah fake news, what happened in 2008 when the investors all went bust, theres an endless list of failed investment institutions, stop talking through your a$$.

From my post.

Anyone asking basic due diligence questions are scorned and mocked. They don't get it. This time it's different. People, friends, pointing out very feasible risks is discomfiting for them and they become agitated, mocking and insulting to people who simply want to make them see the sense of the investor and the trader.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 12:15pm

valoren wrote: »

From my post.

Anyone asking basic due diligence questions are scorned and mocked. They don't get it. This time it's different. People, friends, pointing out very feasible risks is discomfiting for them and they become agitated, mocking and insulting to people who simply want to make them see the sense of the investor and the trader.

You are full of it, so what happened to your esteemed buddies who busted the housing market lol. seriously get off the stage, there all in the same bucket not one of them, traders investors or speculators can tell what's going to happen because they cant tell the future.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 12:29pm

So the stock market crash in the 80's, the great depression, all caused by your buds, not recently.

seamus · 13-09-2018 12:30pm

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

Most of what you state here is wrong. For example, You can pay for goods in many parts of the world with Bitcoin, particularly Asia/Japan, indeed there is also a coffee shop in dear ol Dublin that accepts Bitcoin. It is only the birth of things to come, still a long long way to go though - it won't go away ya know!

"
And unlike other assets where something exists which you have to deal with, bitcoin can simply be deleted, gone. And what's worse - you don't know when someone else has deleted their coins."
You can burn 50 quid and it's gone/worthless, who else will know?

Keep talking it up, sure it's only just begun! One day soon we'll be scanning our bitcoin wallets to pay for that chocolate bar, and it'll only take 3 hours for the transaction to go through!

Your equivalence to burning 50 quid belies your ignorance on the topic. Notes are continually recycled and replenished, money is continually injected into the cycle. Burning a 50 note doesn't affect the amount in circulation over the medium to long term. Deleting a bitcoin, does.

Pintman Paddy Losty · 13-09-2018 12:32pm

- Father, why is my name Apple?
- Because when you were a kid, we bought $1,000 worth of $AAPL for your college fund. By the way, how’s your PhD moving along?
- Pretty well, Father, thanks!
- Daddy, what’s a PhD?
- Shut the f*ck up, Bitcoin, you’ll be late for McDonald’s again.

valoren · 13-09-2018 12:35pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

You are full of it, so what happened to your esteemed buddies who busted the housing market lol. seriously get off the stage, there all in the same bucket not one of them, traders investors or speculators can tell what's going to happen because they cant tell the future.

I'm neither a speculator nor a trader. I'm firmly an investor. Blue chips are my interest. I look to buy (with a set amount) quality companies only when they are trading at fair value and I hold them permanently. Any investor who firmly held quality companies during the credit crisis has done well since. Those quality companies, while earnings dropped modestly still paid out increasing cash dividends. Cash will always be king even though it is paid electronically and not by cheque anymore. You can't payout cash unless you earn it. People still trade and speculate on shares, they don't invest in them. A statistic I read stated that the average holding period for a stock is now 22 seconds!

When you hold quality companies permanently then three things can happen. One, the price increases and I get wealthier while collecting annually increasing-to beat-inflation cash dividends, two, the price goes nowhere for years but I get to collect those same dividends and three the price falls and I get to buy even more shares of the quality company and I get even more annually increasing dividends. Buy and then never sell unless you absolutely have to. I have that watching paint dry strategy down pat. 2008-2009 was a 30-50% off sale on some of the world's best companies.

Bitcoin I do not understand at all. I've tried but I can't make sense nor tail of it. Too many questions. Too much energy.

I don't use them, I don't get paid in them, I don't get to invest with them. If I put any money into them I wouldn't even know where to start.

While it's all interesting, it's far too baffling and therein lies the scope for scamming well meaning but naive people.
Dabble in it, just don't count on it.

Billy86 · 13-09-2018 12:41pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

You are full of it, so what happened to your esteemed buddies who busted the housing market lol. seriously get off the stage, there all in the same bucket not one of them, traders investors or speculators can tell what's going to happen because they cant tell the future.

For the record I'm not sure where I stand on Bitcoin exactly, but all you are doing with posts like this is proving valoren's point in the post you quoted, for them.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b · 13-09-2018 12:50pm

The true value of bitcoin is seen in countries experiencing political and economic turmoil like Zimbabwe and Venezuela. When monetary and financial structures are crumbing due to destructive hyperinflation (expected to exceed 1 million percent in Venezuela this year), bitcoin may provide an an important and much-needed alternative store of value.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 12:51pm

Billy86 wrote: »

For the record I'm not sure where I stand on Bitcoin exactly, but all you are doing with posts like this is proving valoren's point in the post you quoted, for them.

Sorry but its true, I don't believe any of it, if his post had credibility we would never see a downturn in the market, his post is nothing to do with bitcoin.

[Deleted User] · 13-09-2018 12:53pm

seamus wrote: »

I'm afraid nox, with all due respect, this belief that a rally is more likely than a collapse reveals your ignorance about just what bitcoin is.

Physical assets have a residual value. When you buy a property and lose your hole on it, you still have a physical asset. It probably has some utility, and at the very least you'll have something that you can sell, that someone will buy at some price. At some point, that asset's utility will be realised, and its value increased.

This is not the case with crypto. The bitcoins you hold, have no utility. They cannot be used for anything but selling to someone else. They will never become a proper currency. That ship has sailed.

What's worse is that the cost of selling your bitcoins increases over time. The longer you hold, the more it will cost to sell. This is generally not a feature of any other asset. The cost of selling a house remains largely fixed (in fact, it often drops with the price). The cost of selling gold, or oil, is largely fixed.

For bitcoin, the cost of selling increases every time a transaction is made, regardless of the value of the coin.

Thus it is inevitable that the value of bitcoin will continue to drop, and drop sharply, as the cost of selling outweighs any potential return for users or processors.

And unlike other assets where something exists which you have to deal with, bitcoin can simply be deleted, gone. And what's worse - you don't know when someone else has deleted their coins. There are millions of bitcoins which have been mined, and never used. For all you know, these have been deleted.
In a traditional market, this increases the value of your asset. With Bitcoin, it makes it uncertain. You could be holding the only bitcoin left in existence, but you'd never be able to know. That makes it worthless.

Sell now, get out while you have something. In a decade, bitcoin will be a piece of history and nothing more.

I would disagree so I will hold on for now and see what happens, a coin is not too dissimilar from a share the company could disappear and you lose everything but you let out shares from your post despite them being a massive area of investment for a lot of people. All conis I hold are in the green today, the coin I hold most of is up 13% since I posted yesterday. Id rather lose the full investment than sell now only to see coins recover in a few weeks/months/a year.

Pintman Paddy Losty · 13-09-2018 1:03pm

Emmaline Crooked Penny wrote: »

The true value of bitcoin is seen in countries experiencing political and economic turmoil like Zimbabwe and Venezuela. When monetary and financial structures are crumbing due to destructive hyperinflation (expected to exceed 1 million percent in Venezuela this year), bitcoin may provide an an important and much-needed alternative store of value.

Yeah because in this fantasy world where the global financial system crashes and currencies have ceased to function the viable alternative is a complex crypto currency that requires a massive amount of computing power and electricity to maintain. Makes sense... :rolleyes:

Somehow I don't think bitcoin will be the currency du jour in your fantasy mad max world.

Good lad.

Blacktie. · 13-09-2018 1:10pm

Has nobody mentioned proof of stake yet? Yeah bitcoin might not be the future but there are many viable alternatives.

Bob Harris · 13-09-2018 1:13pm

Donovan Shapely Adventurer wrote: »

I would disagree so I will hold on for now and see what happens, a coin is not too dissimilar from a share the company could disappear and you lose everything but you let out shares from your post despite them being a massive area of investment for a lot of people. All conis I hold are in the green today, the coin I hold most of is up 13% since I posted yesterday. Id rather lose the full investment than sell now only to see coins recover in a few weeks/months/a year.

The fact that it's up 13% based on nothing at all since yesterday, while gratifying in the short term, must also raise concerns that it could easily fall just as quickly.

[Deleted User] · 13-09-2018 1:18pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

The fact that it's up 13% based on nothing at all since yesterday, while gratifying in the short term, must also raise concerns that it could easily fall just as quickly.

I meant up from what it was yesterday as opposed to up on investment, still has a long long way to recover to break even (at which point I would not sell as id wait and see if they would keep going up into profit).

Bob Harris · 13-09-2018 1:24pm

Donovan Shapely Adventurer wrote: »

I meant up from what it was yesterday as opposed to up on investment, still has a long long way to recover to break even (at which point I would not sell ad id wait and see if they would keep going up into profit.

I know what you meant. My point is that the value rose 13% in one day. Was that based on any real underlying change in the value or does anyone know why? Was it based purely on speculation?

For example a major strike at Ryanair is expected to be announced today.
Shares down 1.5% as I write and when confirmed may go down a fair bit more.
The movement in SP is based on a tangible and real business risk.

Muahahaha · 13-09-2018 1:36pm

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

No lad. Buying magic crypto beans at the height of a bubble was idiotic. Insisting on holding them, despite deep down knowing they are worthless is idiotic. Silly decisions.

Been following this thread for a couple of days and had a look over on the crypto forum where it seems to me to be apparent that those still holding are, despite the crash, only in the denial phase of the 14 stages of investor emotions. Specifically telling themselves "this is a temporary setback, I am a long term investor". Its the bit where the brain realises they have suffered huge losses but seeks to deny it by appealing to time and that things will get better in the future. Thing is if you were really honest with yourself you would be able to admit that it was never intended as a long term investment and instead cut your losses. But many never actually leave this denial phase, even years later they still think of it as a long term investment even though it flatlines year after year with no sign of improvement or a return to the heady days of the initial bubble they bought into.

Trasna1 · 13-09-2018 1:40pm

seamus wrote: »

I'm afraid nox, with all due respect, this belief that a rally is more likely than a collapse reveals your ignorance about just what bitcoin is.

Physical assets have a residual value. .... In a decade, bitcoin will be a piece of history and nothing more.

Nothing has value apart from what people place on it.

What utility has a gold bar?

Pintman Paddy Losty · 13-09-2018 1:42pm

Trasna1 wrote: »

Nothing has value apart from what people place on it.

What utility has a gold bar?

Jewellery, high tech electronics. Store of value since time immemorial.

Trasna1 · 13-09-2018 1:48pm

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Jewellery, high tech electronics. Store of value since time immemorial.

It's utility is a store of value because of the value we place on it.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 1:49pm

What about diamonds.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b · 13-09-2018 1:52pm

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Yeah because in this fantasy world where the global financial system crashes and currencies have ceased to function...

A month ago, the media reported that a chicken in Venezuela cost around 14.6 million bolivars.

It's far from a "fantasy world" when inflation is running at around 1 million percent per annum.

The key benefit of bitcoin is that neither governments nor anyone else can create infinite amounts of it.

Trasna1 · 13-09-2018 1:54pm

Someone posted earlier that the dark web is not using btc any more. What are they using now?

Breaky Bitcoin Blues

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