Heavy Rain / Thunderstorms Sat June 9th

Again today the parameters are there for heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out in the afternoon. Perhaps not as widespread as yesterday and wondering if they might peak in central midland counties mid /late afternoon.

From Netweather :



Storm & Convective Forecast
Issued 2018-06-08 22:12:29
Valid: 09/06/2018 00z to 10/06/2018 06z

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 9TH JUNE 2018
Synopsis

A slow moving upper low over Scotland will gradually lift NE, with a slack pressure gradient at the surface tending to lend to sea breeze convergence inland ... which will be the trigger for a swathe of heavy downpours with thunder to develop over Scotland, Ireland and N. Ireland in particular ... where atmosphere will be most unstable in proximity to upper low.

... IRELAND and NORTHWESTERN BRITAIN ...

Proximity of upper low and associated colder air aloft across Scotland will create steep lapse rates with surface heating, with peak heating in the afternoon yeilding 300-800 j/kg CAPE according to some models. Sea breeze convergence in slack flow regime toward western side of Britain combined with some upslope influences and large scale ascent of upper low drifting slowly NE will be the main trigger for likely swathe of heavy downpours with thunder to develop across Scotland, N. Ireland and Rep. of Ireland from late morning and through the afternoon. Generally light winds aloft and rather weak vertical shear will lend to pulse-type storms, though convergence zones may merge these areas of slow-moving storms together to increase the risk of localised flash-flooding. Isolated incidences of large hail can't be ruled out given steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE values, also there is potential for funnel clouds to form along the convergnce zones - which may lengthen into a brief weak tornado. Any storms may also produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning- which may pose a hazard to those pursuing exposed outdoor activities.

... NW ENGLAND, WALES and SW ENGLAND ...

Isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms are also possible further south across NW England Wales and SW England ... again due to sea breeze convergence or orographic lift. Localised flash-flooding is possible with any of these storms. They should quickly fade after dark.

... CHANNEL ISLANDS ...

Elevated thunderstorms on northern edge of warm moist plume will bring a risk of localised flooding and frequent lightning this morning. Activity may weaken for a time before more storms form over northern France and drift over the islands.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Did someone forget to throw the switch :pac:

Seen nice convection up around Limerick moving inland but little showing up as yet in the way of rainfall .