Ireland v Waltzing Matilda, test 1 build up thread.

sydthebeat · 06-06-2018 8:21am #1

Rather than pollute the Ireland thread with spoofing, we can do it here.

So, any regular super rugby watches want to try to predict the aussie line up and their systems?

Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see cheiks play three full backs, with beale, DHP and folau all finding positions. The most interesting will be whether he plays folau at 15 or wing. He's in absolute beast form right now and under a high ball he's simply ridiculous. Foley will aim to target him all day with bombs, probably landing on Stockdale.

The big call for cheika will be if he plays kerevi or kuridrani in midfield. Kuri has been playing like a drain for a good while now, and kerevi is excellent with ball in hand, though there are serious questions about his defense.

stephen_n · 06-06-2018 8:29am

Wouldn’t have thought targeting Stockdale in the air would be the way to get at him. He has always seemed quite comfortable with that. Surely it would be Earls they’d target with Folau’s considerable height advantage. Be an interesting optic if they resort to a kicking game and spend all day putting bombs up.

wp_rathead · 06-06-2018 8:31am

Be interesting if Kerevi is at 13 alright

stl.ire · 06-06-2018 9:27am

Folau will play 15. He gets pissy if he doesn’t and has a contract renewal coming up so has the ARU and Cheika under a barrel.
Wouldn’t be so sure that Foley will kick from hand at Ireland either, it’s probably the weakest part of his game.

I imagine Australia will want a loose unstructured game so their individual talent will overcome Ireland’s control game. They’ve only had 6 days of camp and have lots of new faces so won’t have a lot of systems in place for the 1st game. Quick penalties and line outs with the ball being spread about to the wings often should be the order of the day. Smash and grab stuff.

If Ireland can play with patience and possession they should find holes in attack. Australia haven’t got settled combinations at center or back 3 and players like Foley, Kerevi and Beale have poor defensive reputations (their stats in this yrs Super Rugby are shocking). When England swept them they did so at the breakdown, with a press defence and with a strong kicking game. Ireland excel in these areas and Australia have yet to prove they can deal with them.

If Ireland come out flat or are taken away from their structures then Australia could tear them apart but equally Ireland could and frankly should steamroll them this week.

My only prediction - With all the ball Oz will fling about, Stockdale is a great shout for an intercept try.

06-06-2018 9:44am

stl.ire wrote: »

Folau will play 15. He gets pissy if he doesn’t and has a contract renewal coming up so has the ARU and Cheika under a barrel.
Wouldn’t be so sure that Foley will kick from hand at Ireland either, it’s probably the weakest part of his game.

I imagine Australia will want a loose unstructured game so their individual talent will overcome Ireland’s control game. They’ve only had 6 days of camp and have lots of new faces so won’t have a lot of systems in place for the 1st game. Quick penalties and line outs with the ball being spread about to the wings often should be the order of the day. Smash and grab stuff.

If Ireland can play with patience and possession they should find holes in attack. Australia haven’t got settled combinations at center or back 3 and players like Foley, Kerevi and Beale have poor defensive reputations (their stats in this yrs Super Rugby are shocking). When England swept them they did so at the breakdown, with a press defence and with a strong kicking game. Ireland excel in these areas and Australia have yet to prove they can deal with them.

If Ireland come out flat or are taken away from their structures then Australia could tear them apart but equally Ireland could and frankly should steamroll them this week.

My only prediction - With all the ball Oz will fling about, Stockdale is a great shout for an intercept try.

Stockdale was Ireland's answer to teams trying to get wide of us quickly. It was no accident that he was continually in the right place and the way our defence shot up in mid field but then stayed flat all the way until Stockdale came off the line was a definite tactic that worked out very nicely during the six nations.

Cheika will be wise to it, but when Australia throw the ball around it's not just about putting width on it, it's often as much about accurate short passes and offloads.

It's a concern that Leavy isn't available. He's been integral to both Leinster and Ireland's success and his absence will be felt. Murphy stepping in will offer more elsewhere but he won't put manners on the likes of Pocock in the same way Leavy would. At least his eye get's a week off.

Really looking forward to this game, you know Ireland will show up but will things click straight out the gate against a load of quality individuals but an occasionally average team?

Buer · 06-06-2018 9:45am

If Leavy is out, as rumoured elsewhere, it's a big blow to the team. Australia are likely to go with two pretty excellent fetchers in the back row and we're not really going to even have one. If it's POM, Stander and Murphy as expected, all are combative, good breakdown players but none are in the class of Pocock or even Hooper at getting over the ball.

I suppose the one bonus is that I'd probably rate Murphy more highly as an attacking breakdown option and his ability to clear out and physicality in rucking are as good if not better than Leavy's.

PTH2009 · 06-06-2018 9:45am

https://youtu.be/hW2vyytxCGM

06-06-2018 9:48am

Buer wrote: »

If Leavy is out, as rumoured elsewhere, it's a big blow to the team. Australia are likely to go with two pretty excellent fetchers in the back row and we're not really going to even have one. If it's POM, Stander and Murphy as expected, all are combative, good breakdown players but none are in the class of Pocock or even Hooper at getting over the ball.

I suppose the one bonus is that I'd probably rate Murphy more highly as an attacking breakdown option and his ability to clear out and physicality in rucking are as good if not better than Leavy's.

It possibly opens the door to Beirne coming straight in at lock or maybe blindside. Apparently Rory Arnold has been wearing a blue scrum cap in Australia's training camp all week!

Former Former · 06-06-2018 9:57am

PTH2009 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/hW2vyytxCGM

I prefer the original, no one can beat Rod Stewart

irishbucsfan · 06-06-2018 10:27am

I think we'll likely go fairly tight. I'm not sure we'll look to the breakdown as a source of possession, but rather stand off it and fill the defensive line.

Not so worried about the lack of fetcher on their ball, much more interested in a pack who can keep ball when we have it. I think that means POM, Murphy, Stander in the back row.

Although if we do want a great fetcher, Beirne is there for us.

salmocab · 06-06-2018 10:30am

No Leavy coupled with Leinster’s long season might see Beirne get a start in the row. Well deserved, although he had a long one too.

arsebiscuits1 · 06-06-2018 10:48am

salmocab wrote: »

No Leavy coupled with Leinster’s long season might see Beirne get a start in the row. Well deserved, although he had a long one too.

Beirne has had more minutes than most of Leinsters players combined hahah

Scarlets only played one less game than Leinster

arsebiscuits1 · 06-06-2018 10:50am

I reckon Beirne is fairly locked on for the 20 shirt here with Hendy, Ryan and Dev occupying 4,5,19 respectively.

Worrying lack of open sides about now.

If Leavy is indeed crocked Jordi may have just become the most important player on the tour ha

salmocab · 06-06-2018 10:52am

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

Beirne has had more minutes than most of Leinsters players combined hahah

Scarlets only played one less game than Leinster

Yeah actually think they had the pro 14 play off too so same amount of games but he had his week a bit more recently and didn’t have the 6N to play in, coupled with he’s the newcomer I think he may get his chance early.

irishbucsfan · 06-06-2018 10:54am

Is Henderson fully fit? If he is, that's pretty settled

sydthebeat · 06-06-2018 11:21am

ok so gonna try to predict the aussie team:

sio Fainga'a Alaalatoa
tui simmons
hannigan pocock hooper

genia foley
korobeti beale kerevi DHP
Folau

Latu kepu TT Rodda samu (Tima if samu hasnt had enough time) phipps Hodge Banks

06-06-2018 11:29am

I don't think Genia or Foley has the kicking game to target any of our back three

arsebiscuits1 · 06-06-2018 11:31am

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Is Henderson fully fit? If he is, that's pretty settled

I reckon Best would have made the second or 3rd test. So I don't think they'd have taken Henderson if he wasn't going to make the first one

sydthebeat · 06-06-2018 12:20pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think Genia or Foley has the kicking game to target any of our back three

disagree.

Foley has actually been very, very impressive in the last few weeks from the hand, mainly dropping to Folau. His restarts have also been on the money, again targetting folau down the middle, so expect some of this.

Genias main aim this weekend is to get the ball away from the rucks as soon as possible, stretching us out wide as quickly as they can, so i dont expect him to do much kicking, but i certainly expect foley to kick a lot if he sees our back three stretched. With DHP on the wing, they also have an aerial threat. if they go with hodge on the bench then they again have another full back to bring on.

Yes, they will run quite a lot and try to bring 'unstructure' to the game, but they are also threatening in teh air.

have a look at this try on 40 mins match clock

Shefwedfan · 06-06-2018 12:41pm

Listening to the Hard Yards podcast has got me worried. The Australia press guy going on more or less that Ireland just have to turn up and win. Australia are terrible. One guy was a tiler last year blah blah blah...

Then in same conversation says that Australia are confident but he has no idea why they are confident...he mentioned more or less all the players are out of form....all he said about Folau was that a cloud was over him due to comments on twitter.....

I can't see Cheika just turning up for the crack....he will have a plan to win.....this could be dangerous....

One thing he did mention, opening match is sell out, other 2 match's nearly sold out as well which is great for Wallabies as it brings in some much-needed money

06-06-2018 1:07pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

disagree.

Foley has actually been very, very impressive in the last few weeks from the hand, mainly dropping to Folau. His restarts have also been on the money, again targetting folau down the middle, so expect some of this.

Genias main aim this weekend is to get the ball away from the rucks as soon as possible, stretching us out wide as quickly as they can, so i dont expect him to do much kicking, but i certainly expect foley to kick a lot if he sees our back three stretched. With DHP on the wing, they also have an aerial threat. if they go with hodge on the bench then they again have another full back to bring on.

Yes, they will run quite a lot and try to bring 'unstructure' to the game, but they are also threatening in teh air.

have a look at this try on 40 mins match clock

The most notable thing I took from that video is Rory Best always has an eye on Australian Rugby

FACECUTTR · 06-06-2018 2:01pm

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Listening to the Hard Yards podcast has got me worried. The Australia press guy going on more or less that Ireland just have to turn up and win. Australia are terrible. One guy was a tiler last year blah blah blah...

Then in same conversation says that Australia are confident but he has no idea why they are confident...he mentioned more or less all the players are out of form....all he said about Folau was that a cloud was over him due to comments on twitter.....

I can't see Cheika just turning up for the crack....he will have a plan to win.....this could be dangerous....

One thing he did mention, opening match is sell out, other 2 match's nearly sold out as well which is great for Wallabies as it brings in some much-needed money

Massive Irish community so it will almost be like a home game for us. That should give the lads a lift.

Yeah_Right · 06-06-2018 2:21pm

My initial reaction when I saw the Aussie squad was "they're ****". However I should qualify that by the fact that most of the times that I have watched the Aussie teams this year, they have been getting snotted by a kiwi side

And if there is one thing I've learnt as a kiwi sports fan, always be wary of the shackle-draggers especially when everyone is writing them off.

Their front rowers are all good ball carriers and big hitters but I think they could be exposed at set piece and in the maul. Their second row are nothing special. I think they would struggle to get a start in the top NH and NZ club sides. Obviously Hooper and Pocock are world class and there are a few ball carrying options to join them in the back row. One thing that I have noticed is the Australian forwards tend to give away a lot of penalties.

Genia is not the player he was and I don't think his form is that great. I've never rated Foley but then again all those 2 have to do is get the ball wide quickly or drop it off short to various strike runners. If the game gets loose, they have the players to tear teams apart. However they can also be exposed on defense.

Overall I believe Ireland has better players, better coaches and are a better team. They should win this. Comfortably.

BUT... it is Australia so I wouldn't bet on it.

Squidgy Black · 06-06-2018 2:33pm

Australia won't want to play it disciplined with a stringent game plan. Their best chance of winning it is just going absolutely wild and flinging it about, and playing all out attack.

It'll be more a challenge of can the Irish defense adapt fast enough to whatever comes their way, we've seen at stages our defensive line get bunched up and be slow to push out wide.

Folau has been impressive in the air over the last few months, but I don't think Genia and Foley have the accuracy or composure to just keep landing kicks on him against the likes of Earls and Stockdale.

sydthebeat · 06-06-2018 3:30pm

https://player.fm/series/green-and-gold-rugby

aussie podcast with murray kinsella giving his thoughts

arsebiscuits1 · 06-06-2018 4:36pm

Cummisky saying this as a possible team

Ireland (possible team to face Australia): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rob Herring, John Ryan; Iain Henderson, James Ryan; Peter O’Mahony (capt), Jordi Murphy, CJ Stander.

Seems very confident Johnny wont start/ play

Such a strange prediction you'd have to assume it's true...

... that or the Irish guys are feeding the media porkies for some head games

06-06-2018 4:36pm

Nothing to see here so.

arsebiscuits1 · 06-06-2018 4:39pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh for ****s sake. Nothing to do with rugby and I'd say you're lining yourself up for a forum vacation posting that so perhaps save someone the hassle and delete that post.

... I know it's a Gavin Cummisky article but jeez

wp_rathead · 06-06-2018 4:51pm

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

Cummisky saying this as a possible team

Ireland (possible team to face Australia): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rob Herring, John Ryan; Iain Henderson, James Ryan; Peter O’Mahony (capt), Jordi Murphy, CJ Stander.

Seems very confident Johnny wont start/ play

Such a strange prediction you'd have to assume it's true...

... that or the Irish guys are feeding the media porkies for some head games

Disgraceful Pro-Munster Bias by Joe picking Carbery over Johnny

Buer · 06-06-2018 4:53pm

Bit of a bizarre team to pick for the opening test. Looks like Schmidt is trying to really build towards the RWC and is giving a number of Leinster guys who were heavily involved in recent weeks a rest.

If they need the rest, so be it. But I don't think that team is good enough to beat Australia.

irishbucsfan · 06-06-2018 4:57pm

u wot m8

Ireland v Waltzing Matilda, test 1 build up thread.

Comments