Match preview & thread: ITA vs ENG (Sunday, February 4th)

By 3PM Sunday afternoon, celebratory/commiseratory hangovers should be clearing up and the last game of the weekend (not counting the Superbowl) takes place - what looks to be the most one-sided of the three games, between Eddie Jones' England and Conor O'Shea's Italy.

Last year, Italy caused England all sorts of problems, and caused much hilarity for the rest of the world with their "not proper rugby" tactics at the breakdown. Sadly, Italy succumbed 36-15 in Twickenham, but the scoreline flattered England - indeed there were only two points in it with ten minutes to go - such was England's inability to deal with Italy's 'smart rugby'. Three tries for England in the last ten minutes finished Italy off and provided a nice scoreline for the men in white. Happily for Dylan Hartley, World Rugby have changed the rules so Italy can't use the same tactic again, and unless O'Shea has something else up his sleep, we won't get to see confused faces in the ref cam.
ENGLAND
Back-to-back Six Nations Champions England (vomit) arrive in Rome in the midst of a shocking #injuryCRISIS, and as such have fielded a very weak side in their opening game. Ah, who am I kidding, it's a very strong side from Jones, props aside, who will be favourites for many for the competition. Getting their easiest game out of the way is a nice way to gear up for touger opposition in the weeks to come. The big losses for England in terms of injury are to forwards Billy Vunipola, Kyle Sinckler and Joe Marler with Elliot Daly also missing out, with no massive step down in terms of quality for most of those. Mind you, the relative newcomer Sam Simmonds at 8 is as different to Big Billy as can be - he's got pace, some decent feet and doesn't try to just mash through the opposition. He's having a great season or two at Exeter, scoring tries for fun apparently, 17 in 36 appearances according to the Exeter stats.

From speaking to some English rugby mates, they're not overly concerned by this game - unsurprisingly given England's perfect record against Italy - though have somewhat mixed reactions to the teamsheet. It's seen as a little conservative, perhaps expecting a bit more new blood to be used in the first 15 was hopeful rather than expected - Italy may be the weakest side in the competition, but it's still the first game of the year and England need to get up a head of steam for the Welsh and Scottish games. There's some concern for the prop replacements (Sinckler, Genge and Marler being unavailable) and their inexperience - indeed it's a debut for Alec Hepburn on the bench, but the replacements are possibly 4th/5th choice in prop territory. General happiness to see Lawes back on the flank, between Simmonds and Lawes they should be up in Allan's face all day. Overall, much the same for England on the first team scene and will look to power over the Italian pack in the loose.

ITALY
Overall, Italy will be looking to improve on last year's debut season for Conor O'Shea - with a grand total of 0 wins last year, it's badly needed. It's hard to see where they'll get their victory though - away to Ireland, France and Wales. Scotland at home will be one they'll target, but with Scotland perhaps resurgent, that'll be tough. They've gone up against a poor South Africa and Argentine sides, both losses though did beat Fiji in last Autumn's internationals. I'm not sure I can see them getting one this Six Nations.

I won't pretend to know a whole lot about this Italian side, it's a young enough inexperienced team, with 8 of the first 15 having less than 10 caps (12/23) and only 5 players out of the 23 have more than 40 caps. Congrats to him, it's Zanni's 100th cap on Sunday. Between him, Ghiraldini (89) and the ever-present Parisse (129), they'll have a job on their hands leading their team against this English side... if things start to go against them, heads could drop and it could get very ugly for Italy. I'm a little surprised to see Allan starting ahead of Canna, given what I've seen of him for Zebre.

Much like France-Ireland, it's a case of a tight disciplined side against one very much in a building phase - hopefully Italy manage to play with a bit of freedom, watching Treviso this year makes me feel they're a bit more free-scoring than before.

No sign of Ian McKinley by the way, and I can't seem to find if he's injured or it's just a form decision. If someone knows, let me know!

PREDICTION
I can't see past a fairly resouding England win here. Scrums should be interesting, Italy will be targeting England's scrum in this one you feel, given England's prop situation. Unless Italy can really do a number there and force lots of scrums, the rest of England's game (lineout particularly) should be enough to overpower them. Italy will have to play smart (cliche alert) and while they may be able to keep it tight in the first half, England should power clear in the second half.