New England Patriots Thread Mod Warning Post #253

TOss Sweep · 17-01-2018 08:20AM

ELM327 wrote: »

So are you saying the onside was the correct decision statistically?

No read what I said again. You have a 26% chance of recovering the ball.

Because if I'm a coach, especially of a team with a defensive history and mindset like PIT , I'd like to think my defense has a higher statistical chance of stopping the Jags than 26%!

I think you misread what I wrote. When it comes to Onside kicks the team kicking has a 26% chance of recovering it. The % of teams kicking it long and forcing a 3 and out and getting the ball back is unknown and depends on a lot of factors but you are in more control of getting the ball back.

The Steelers made the wrong decision in every aspect. They had more than enough time on the clock to kick it long and let their defense do their job and force the 3 and out leaving them with enough time for a last grasp drive.

ELM327 · 17-01-2018 08:41AM

Ok yes that was my point too. I was disagreeing with the onside kick.
The steelers defense, even with Tomlin, should have a better than 26% chance of getting the ball back.

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 09:48AM

Hazys wrote: »

But the Jags went 3 and out and kicked a 45 yard FG, basically ending the game

That's because the onside kick only went 5 yards instead of 10, and hit a player so gave another 5 yard penalty. Should have been a 55 yard field goal try, which I doubt they'd have chanced (in case they missed and have Steelers great field position)

j8wk2feszrnpao · 17-01-2018 09:48AM

TOss Sweep wrote: »

You have a 26% chance of recovering the ball.

And in this case it may be slightly lower, as the Jags were expecting it and were lined up (eliminating the odd time a team uses the 'surprise' onside kick).

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 09:50AM

TOss Sweep wrote: »

Thing is of the 2 scenarios you have a much higher % of kicking it and stopping them and getting the ball back than you will ever have with an onside kick. There is a website that mathematically broke it down and you have a 26% chance of getting the ball back from an onside kick.

With Punting and plenty of time on the clock you control more of your own destiny and the odds are going to much greater of getting the ball back with time on the clock.

Onside kicks should be last resort in the dying seconds. 2 mins left is far too much time to be risking on a 26% chance of succeeding.

You're comparing "odds of getting a 3 and out" with "odds of recovering an onside kick".

You need to compare "odds of getting a 3 and out at their 20", versus "odds of getting a 3 and out at your 45" plus "odds of recovering the onside kick".

If the chances of getting a 3 and out are the same regardless of where on the field you are (probably true), then you're basically getting a free shot at a 26% chance.

mcgratheoin · 17-01-2018 11:41AM

Shedite27 wrote: »

you're basically getting a free shot at a 26% chance.

It's not free, the cost is in yardage.

Randall Victorious Pentagon wrote:

And in this case it may be slightly lower, as the Jags were expecting it and were lined up (eliminating the odd time a team uses the 'surprise' onside kick).

Yeah, I was going to mention this - this is a paper from 2014 on the topic.

https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/autumn14/finalprojects/Tsodikov_NFL%20Overtime-Onside%20Kick.pdf

In the previous 14 seasons (2000-2014) 17.7% (145 out of 819) of onside kicks were successfully recovered. The author estimates that about 50% of surprise onside kicks are successful - but it depends on your definition of "surprise".

Hazys · 17-01-2018 12:00PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

Hazys wrote: »

But the Jags went 3 and out and kicked a 45 yard FG, basically ending the game

That's because the onside kick only went 5 yards instead of 10, and hit a player so gave another 5 yard penalty. Should have been a 55 yard field goal try, which I doubt they'd have chanced (in case they missed and have Steelers great field position)

Ah ok fair enough

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 12:29PM

mcgratheoin wrote: »

It's not free, the cost is in yardage.

That matters if it's in the middle of the game. As I mentioned earlier, the yardage didn't matter. All Jacksonville needed to do was get a first down and they win the game. Didn't matter whether they get that at the Pitt 35 or Jac 30.

The failure to kick the ball 10 yards meant they didn't need that anymore.

mcgratheoin · 17-01-2018 03:37PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

That matters if it's in the middle of the game. As I mentioned earlier, the yardage didn't matter. All Jacksonville needed to do was get a first down and they win the game. Didn't matter whether they get that at the Pitt 35 or Jac 30.

The failure to kick the ball 10 yards meant they didn't need that anymore.

Hang on a minute - it absolutely mattered because the Jags went 3 and out but scored a FG to ice the game. That wouldn't have happened had they gone 3 and out from their own 25 and given the Steelers the ball back with 1:45 left down only 7. When you analyse the potential cost you also have to look at the chances of giving up yardage on penalties etc..

Earleybird · 17-01-2018 05:13PM

mcgratheoin wrote: »

Hang on a minute - it absolutely mattered because the Jags went 3 and out but scored a FG to ice the game. That wouldn't have happened had they gone 3 and out from their own 25 and given the Steelers the ball back with 1:45 left down only 7. When you analyse the potential cost you also have to look at the chances of giving up yardage on penalties etc..

There was a chance that the Steelers would not get the ball back at all. A successful first down would have done that. An onside kick gave them a chance, albeit a slim one to get it. I think we all understand that Jags kicked 3 to win it, hindsight is wonderful. But that FG was only in range due to a poorly executed onside kick. Had the ball gone 10 yards the Jags would have been out of range. It's opinion. I don't like Tomlin either but I'd have done the same thing.

mcgratheoin · 17-01-2018 05:18PM

Earleybird wrote: »

It's opinion.

I'm not arguing that, I'm just pointing out that it's not a free shot at getting the ball back - it has negatives that may not be apparent immediately - one of those is the potential that it gives the Jags the ball within field goal range.

Earleybird · 17-01-2018 05:26PM

mcgratheoin wrote: »

I'm not arguing that, I'm just pointing out that it's not a free shot at getting the ball back - it has negatives that may not be apparent immediately - one of those is the potential that it gives the Jags the ball within field goal range.

I think anyone who has watched more than a couple of games is aware of the negatives. They are quite apparent immediately. Teams live and die by decisions, we've seen enough in the playoffs to highlight why the Pats have been in the hat every year- their decision making is generally on point, while other sides perhaps take wrong turns when it matters. We'll hope the Jags roll over on Sunday and then we'll thank Tomlin for his "awful" call.

TOss Sweep · 17-01-2018 07:40PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

You're comparing "odds of getting a 3 and out" with "odds of recovering an onside kick".

You need to compare "odds of getting a 3 and out at their 20", versus "odds of getting a 3 and out at your 45" plus "odds of recovering the onside kick".

If the chances of getting a 3 and out are the same regardless of where on the field you are (probably true), then you're basically getting a free shot at a 26% chance.

I am not comparing anything as there is nothing to compare statistically.

As for the Free shot? What free shot?

Getting the ball on their own 45 compared to the opponents 20 is HUGE when it comes to managing the last couple minutes of a game. You put them on their own 20 and they need a first yes but it also gets rid of them kicking a cheap field goal if you force the 3 and out.

Putting them on your 45 opens up the door for the other team to get into FG range. Lambo is 2/2 on 50+ kicks this year his long being 56 yards. So that put his max distance on the Steelers 39 yard line. The way the Jags were running the ball those 6 yards even from the Steelers 45 were doable.

Yes its all opinion but Tomlin got it wrong in many peoples eyes because it gets the Jags out of scoring range even on a 3 and out situation by putting them on their own 20. You got to maximise your chances and the Steelers failed to do so.

Again matter of opinion but with plenty of time on the clock it was mad not to pin them than risking an onside kick with a low success rate.

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 07:43PM

mcgratheoin wrote: »

Hang on a minute - it absolutely mattered because the Jags went 3 and out but scored a FG to ice the game. That wouldn't have happened had they gone 3 and out from their own 25 and given the Steelers the ball back with 1:45 left down only 7. When you analyse the potential cost you also have to look at the chances of giving up yardage on penalties etc..

But they were only in FG range because of the crappy execution that lost them 10 yards (should have traveleed 5 yards further and not got the 5 yard penalty).

TOss Sweep · 17-01-2018 07:48PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

But they were only in FG range because of the crappy execution that lost them 10 yards (should have traveleed 5 yards further and not got the 5 yard penalty).

Not really had they not given up the penalty on the kickoff they would have been on the their own 45 either +/- the yard or two the guy catching the ball fell on.

TV folk average out the kickers kicks to get his long but Lambo has kicked 2/2 on 50 yard kicks this year and both out doors 51 and 56. His longest if you were to go by the longest kick is 56 yards if you average the two is 53.5 round were you please.

That puts the Ball on the 39 yard line or 37 yard line of Pittsburgh. I would put money on them kicking had the gotten to the 37/39 from the 45 if going 3 and out. Any chance to kill the game completely with a minute left on the clock.

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 07:52PM

TOss Sweep wrote: »

I am not comparing anything as there is nothing to compare statistically.

As for the Free shot? What free shot?

Sorry my reading of your last message was that you were comparing the chances of forcing a 3 and out than winning an onside kick. Maybe I'm reading that wrong.

TOss Sweep wrote: »

Thing is of the 2 scenarios you have a much higher % of kicking it and stopping them and getting the ball back than you will ever have with an onside kick. There is a website that mathematically broke it down and you have a 26% chance of getting the ball back from an onside kick.

I think, Steelers choice was:

a) Kick it long.
If Jags get a first down, game over.
If Jags don't, Steelers get it back on about 40 yard line.

b) Onside kick
If Jags get a first down, game over
If Jags don't, Steelers get it back on about 20 yard line (I don't believe they'd have tried a 60 yarder FG)
Or recover onside kick.

I think they kicked b becuase there's the extra chance of recovering onside kick at the concession of an extra 20 yards if they get it back.
It's my opinion that A/B above were their options, and that's the reason they chose b.

Obviously anything can happen in football, players fumble, long kickoff could be muffed, or badly executed onside kick.

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 07:54PM

TOss Sweep wrote: »

Not really had they not given up the penalty on the kickoff they would have been on the their own 45 either +/- the yard or two the guy catching the ball fell on.

TV folk average out the kickers kicks to get his long but Lambo has kicked 2/2 on 50 yard kicks this year and both out doors 51 and 56. His longest if you were to go by the longest kick is 56 yards if you average the two is 53.5 round were you please.

That puts the Ball on the 39 yard line or 37 yard line of Pittsburgh. I would put money on them kicking had the gotten to the 37/39 from the 45 if going 3 and out. Any chance to kill the game completely with a minute left on the clock.

We'll never know. I don't think they'd have tried it. Anyway how about those Patriots

TOss Sweep · 17-01-2018 08:04PM

Either way I respect your opinion on it and we will agree to disagree and Tomlin and Co have left us with the Jags

What you all reckon tough game? I will regurgitate my post from the other thread as im too lazy to write again but here is what I think about it

As a Pats fan I wont take the Jags lightly. They can win this game.

The job for the Jags defensively is to get to Tom Brady and rattle his cage and put him on his ass. It is all about getting to Brady. Offensively they need to establish a run game with Fournette and not put the pressure on Bortles. Offensively they need balance as this is when Bortles is more efficient because they can fall on their RBs

For the Patriots to win they need to be quick with their passes and use the space over the middle and create a solid run game. Defensively they need to play smart and stuff Fournette and control Bortles. The Pats are usually pretty good when it matters of taking away some aspect of your offense.

Expect New England to be get start right out of the gates and go no huddle and get the ball out of Bradys hands quickly.

eagle eye · 17-01-2018 08:09PM

What is being missed here is the fact that if you don't recover the onside kick and they go three and out you are more than likely getting the ball back around the ten yard line which makes it a hell of a lot harder to go down the field and score a td.

If you give them the ball at their own 25 and they go three and out you have at least a chance of good field position after the punt.

Shedite27 · 17-01-2018 08:45PM

TOss Sweep wrote: »

What you all reckon tough game? I will regurgitate my post from the other thread as im too lazy to write again but here is what I think about it

Yeah it's Brady's cryptonite isn't it. Decent pass rush. Gets him every time.

TOss Sweep · 17-01-2018 08:55PM

Shedite27 wrote: »

Yeah it's Brady's cryptonite isn't it. Decent pass rush. Gets him every time.

Big time and Fish showed us that in both games. They hammered away at him and at times he looked rattled.

StringerBell · 18-01-2018 01:01AM

Its not so much the decent pass rush as the poor protection up front, but most of all the coverage. If he can get the ball out quick to a receiver ala that Seahawks SB win the pass rush can do what it likes. The Jags have good corners, if they the D can delay Brady finding an open man and generate a good rush they will have a field day but you never can count Brady out regardless.

I think Bill will look to take away the run and put the game in Bortles hands from a Jags POV. Similar to the last game in fact, I expect to see plenty of runs from the Pats and quick throws to Hogan/Amendola/White/Gronk with Cooks stretching the field.

The match ups they pose on defence is where it is going to get very interesting for me, I think they are actually better equipped than the Steelers to stop the Patriots offence. Can't wait for game time already!

BizzyC · 18-01-2018 09:32AM

So Brady was run into at practice and hurt his throwing hand....they're probably making the right call by not releasing the name of the f*ckwit who injured the star QB the week of the AFC championship game....

mcgratheoin · 18-01-2018 10:01AM

Shedite27 wrote: »

But they were only in FG range because of the crappy execution that lost them 10 yards (should have traveleed 5 yards further and not got the 5 yard penalty).

TOss Sweep mentioned that they might still have been within FG range but your point is exactly what I'm talking about - if you're making a decision like this, then all potential eventualities have to be taken into account. I would also argue that none of the following examples would be rare enough to ignore -Giving up penalties on an onside kick, giving up yards with a push in the back on a regular kick (or gaining yards) or the chance of a regular kick being returned for a score or into a scoring position.
From what I can see, those who disagree with the decision (personally I think it was Tomlin's call and I'm not going to criticise a guy for making a judgement call in that situation) essentially think that he didn't fully take everything into account.

Good article on coaches decisions here - makes a very important point about smart calls with bad outcomes - it's the difference between bad decisions and wrong decisions. Criticise the first but the second happens to everyone.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/01/17/playoffs-coaching-mistakes-saints-minnesota-miracle-falcons-fourth-down-steelers-qb-sneak

BTW, how did this (interesting) discussion end up in the Pats thread - is it after the Steelers' poor decisions at the end of the regular season game?

Really looking forward to seeing how Brady and the Pats front handles the pressure the Jags will throw at them.

ELM327 · 18-01-2018 10:22AM

mcgratheoin wrote: »

BTW, how did this (interesting) discussion end up in the Pats thread - is it after the Steelers' poor decisions at the end of the regular season game?

Really looking forward to seeing how Brady and the Pats front handles the pressure the Jags will throw at them.

I presume it's because we were expecting to face pittsburgh and not JAX.

Should be an interesting game against JAX, I expect NE to come out on top but arguably JAX would be a tougher game than the PIT team we saw last week. Getting pressure without blitzing is the achilles heel of NE/TB12 so if it's not gameplanned for it could be a problem

PhuckHugh · 19-01-2018 02:14PM

BizzyC wrote: »

So Brady was run into at practice and hurt his throwing hand....they're probably making the right call by not releasing the name of the f*ckwit who injured the star QB the week of the AFC championship game....

He's having injections - Not looking good

ELM327 · 19-01-2018 02:39PM

PhuckHugh wrote: »

He's having injections - Not looking good

This is the first time I'm questioning the Jimmy G trade.

Hazys · 19-01-2018 02:42PM

If he doesn't train today, i'm going to be a little worried.

Obviously he's playing Sunday but Brady's performances do suffer when he misses training.