Costs of Irish unification.

CelticRambler · 30-12-2017 06:24PM

Dear-oh-dear. :rolleyes: I remember when this thread was about the costs of Irish unification ... but I suppose petty squabbling over what-if scenarios around hypothetical 1% differences in notional votes would be part and parcel of those costs! :P

Most of the arguments presented here along the lines of years of debt for the Republic, and NI being a mill stone for generations to come, are nonsensical.

First of all, you can't argue that the financial costs of doing something in the future differently to how they're done today will be the same. This is particularly true of NI, run as an offshore province of the UKofGBandNI, where there are costs uniquely attributable to maintaining NI's separateness from GB.

It's also nonsensical to base arguments on the premise that reunification will happen overnight. Of course it won't - there'll be a transitional phase during which time some "true-blue" British civil servants will repatriate themselves to "the mainland", others will be pensionned off, and many more will decide for themselves to opt out of London-dependent salaries before the sterling tap is turned off.

In 1991, the population of the Republic fo Ireland was 3.5million, in 2011, it had grown to 4.5million. Yes, we'd seen the crash of 2007-8, but now the population is hovering around 4.8million and still (allegedly) one of the best performing economies in the world. So absorbing less than 2 million Northern Irelanders and putting them to work for the country as a whole over the next twenty years is no particular challenge. :cool:

More than anything else, though, it seems like an awful lot of the Irish living in Ireland have almost no appreciation for the work done for the country by agencies such as Fáilte/Discover Ireland, Enterprise Ireland and the like. Anyone who seriously thinks those agencies aren't going to go all out to promote every aspect of a re-united Ireland probably shouldn't be allowed vote. Give it a couple of years, and the Unionists will be more vexed by tourists in their "12th" parades wearing sashes and bowler hats that they bought in Carrolls in Dublin :P

blanch152 · 30-12-2017 06:37PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Dear-oh-dear. :rolleyes: I remember when this thread was about the costs of Irish unification ... but I suppose petty squabbling over what-if scenarios around hypothetical 1% differences in notional votes would be part and parcel of those costs! :P

Most of the arguments presented here along the lines of years of debt for the Republic, and NI being a mill stone for generations to come, are nonsensical.

First of all, you can't argue that the financial costs of doing something in the future differently to how they're done today will be the same. This is particularly true of NI, run as an offshore province of the UKofGBandNI, where there are costs uniquely attributable to maintaining NI's separateness from GB.

It's also nonsensical to base arguments on the premise that reunification will happen overnight. Of course it won't - there'll be a transitional phase during which time some "true-blue" British civil servants will repatriate themselves to "the mainland", others will be pensionned off, and many more will decide for themselves to opt out of London-dependent salaries before the sterling tap is turned off.

The cost of the North's civil servants is not the biggest issue.

The biggest issue is the difference in social welfare rates. Northern Ireland costs the Uk €11bn in subsidies. Increasing their social welfare rates to southern levels will hugely increase the level of subsidy required.

CelticRambler wrote: »

In 1991, the population of the Republic fo Ireland was 3.5million, in 2011, it had grown to 4.5million. Yes, we'd seen the crash of 2007-8, but now the population is hovering around 4.8million and still (allegedly) one of the best performing economies in the world. So absorbing less than 2 million Northern Irelanders and putting them to work for the country as a whole over the next twenty years is no particular challenge. :cool:

So because we coped with a population increase of 1.3m in a time-period of 25 years, we have no problem coping with an increase of 2 million over 20 years. Strange logic that, yet you call other posts nonsensical?

CelticRambler wrote: »

More than anything else, though, it seems like an awful lot of the Irish living in Ireland have almost no appreciation for the work done for the country by agencies such as Fáilte/Discover Ireland, Enterprise Ireland and the like. Anyone who seriously thinks those agencies aren't going to go all out to promote every aspect of a re-united Ireland probably shouldn't be allowed vote. Give it a couple of years, and the Unionists will be more vexed by tourists in their "12th" parades wearing sashes and bowler hats that they bought in Carrolls in Dublin :P

The first question asked by all of the people those agencies contact is will we be safe? That applies all of the time. Rather than seeing an increase in investment and tourism, we are likely to see a pause.

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 07:00PM

blanch152 wrote: »

"It's the economy, stupid"

"All politics is local"

For you to be right, that people will put some aspirational goal above their short-term local selfish economic interests, you would have to see the key universally understood political statements turned on their head.

Enough will change their mind fearful of their dole being cut or their taxes being increased to stop unification. More importantly, who will guarantee that pensions won't be cut?

Maybe it won't be 'aspirational' when all is thrashed out and we see what the long term results might be. Partition has been a problem since it happened after all.

blanch152 · 30-12-2017 07:19PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Maybe it won't be 'aspirational' when all is thrashed out and we see what the long term results might be. Partition has been a problem since it happened after all.

Partition isn't a problem for the South at the moment, and hasn't been for the last twenty years.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 07:26PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would doubt you are the typical FF voter I referred to earlier.
The idea that a significant amount of Irish people would ignore a majority vote for unification (after a full and transparent debate) in northern Ireland is not credible to be honest.
I would suggest that there are indeed those that would selfishly, only consider their own futures, but they are wholly in the minority.
The wind didn't have to change all that much for FG to start talking about a UI in fairness.

You're a gas man Francie. You know what a typical FF voter is and everything. I'm sure you had me pegged as one of them awful blue shirts but actually I am guilty of voting FF in the not so distant past. In 2 consecutive general elections no less.

The south has changed beyond all recognition. The FF/FG divide is even melting away and these parties may not even exist independently by the time a referendum comes. A divide along civil war lines has no place in politics in 2017. It's nonsensical. Logic says it will vanish. They are effectively in coalition right now.

I've already told you that I would vote for the economy first and a UI has to look economically attractive. I don't feel any debt is owed to nationalists on the north. If it doesn't work for me then I will reject it at the ballot box.

Polls on these matters are incredibly error prone. It's like the people that put down Catholic Irish speaking on the census form having at most sung the national anthem and perhaps been in a church for a wedding on the past 12 months. They feel obliged to answer the pollster in the affirmative lest they be considered less Irish for daring to weigh up the options.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 07:30PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Maybe it won't be 'aspirational' when all is thrashed out and we see what the long term results might be. Partition has been a problem since it happened after all.

You live near the border I believe so this probably applies to you and most of your neighbours but I can't say that once in my life has partition posed a problem for me. The further from the border you get the less likely it is you'll find people who were ever affected by partition.

Carlos Orange · 30-12-2017 07:31PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

In 1991, the population of the Republic fo Ireland was 3.5million, in 2011, it had grown to 4.5million. Yes, we'd seen the crash of 2007-8, but now the population is hovering around 4.8million and still (allegedly) one of the best performing economies in the world. So absorbing less than 2 million Northern Irelanders and putting them to work for the country as a whole over the next twenty years is no particular challenge. :cool:

Should be no problem as long as the vast majority of the 2 million people in NI are enthusiastic skilled and educated young people in their 20s and early 30s and Ireland goes through a few decades of unprecedented economic growth again.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 07:37PM

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_reunification#Inner_reunification

Some people need to understand that German unification is ongoing and things are still vastly different in East and West. The west is still heavily subsidising the East.

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 08:08PM

murphaph wrote: »

You're a gas man Francie. You know what a typical FF voter is and everything. I'm sure you had me pegged as one of them awful blue shirts but actually I am guilty of voting FF in the not so distant past. In 2 consecutive general elections no less.

The south has changed beyond all recognition. The FF/FG divide is even melting away and these parties may not even exist independently by the time a referendum comes. A divide along civil war lines has no place in politics in 2017. It's nonsensical. Logic says it will vanish. They are effectively in coalition right now.

I've already told you that I would vote for the economy first and a UI has to look economically attractive. I don't feel any debt is owed to nationalists on the north. If it doesn't work for me then I will reject it at the ballot box.

Polls on these matters are incredibly error prone. It's like the people that put down Catholic Irish speaking on the census form having at most sung the national anthem and perhaps been in a church for a wedding on the past 12 months. They feel obliged to answer the pollster in the affirmative lest they be considered less Irish for daring to weigh up the options.

Which puts you firmly into the selfish demographic.
The rest of your post is guesswork tbh.

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 08:09PM

murphaph wrote: »

You live near the border I believe so this probably applies to you and most of your neighbours but I can't say that once in my life has partition posed a problem for me. The further from the border you get the less likely it is you'll find people who were ever affected by partition.

Yes, I am sure it hasn't posed 'you' a problem. That is why you are on here.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 08:10PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which puts you firmly into the selfish demographic.
The rest of your post is guesswork tbh.

You're equally selfish. You'd vote for a UI even if there were a few loyalist bombings in Dublin.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 08:11PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, I am sure it hasn't posed 'you' a problem. That is why you are on here.

Me and most of the population.

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 08:15PM

murphaph wrote: »

You're equally selfish. You'd vote for a UI even if there were a few loyalist bombings in Dublin.

I spent 30 years watching bombs going off all over these isles, including ones in my own town and which affected my own family. While people in the south (thankfully only a few) were not caring or being affected by it.
Please don't try and trivialise what I am.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 08:28PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I spent 30 years watching bombs going off all over these isles, including ones in my own town and which affected my own family. While people in the south (thankfully only a few) were not caring or being affected by it.
Please don't try and trivialise what I am.

Then keep your accusations of selfishness to yourself and we're good.

CelticRambler · 30-12-2017 08:44PM

blanch152 wrote: »

The cost of the North's civil servants is not the biggest issue.

The biggest issue is the difference in social welfare rates. Northern Ireland costs the Uk €11bn in subsidies. Increasing their social welfare rates to southern levels will hugely increase the level of subsidy required.

Historic data. Show me one government manifesto that specifies what social welfare structures will be in place in the Republic in 2038. That's a perfect example of forecasting an unsustainable cost based on keeping the status quo, when the very act of creating a united Ireland will change it, with plenty of time to harmonise the different structures concerned (which will inevitably have to evolve anyway due to external/global influences).

blanch152 wrote: »

So because we coped with a population increase of 1.3m in a time-period of 25 years, we have no problem coping with an increase of 2 million over 20 years. Strange logic that, yet you call other posts nonsensical?

You change my figures and then question my logic?

Population growth is not linear, but yes, coping with a 28.5% absolute increase in 20 years is no more of a challenge than integrating an existing population that would amount to more or less the same increase over the same timeframe.

blanch152 wrote: »

The first question asked by all of the people those agencies contact is will we be safe? That applies all of the time. Rather than seeing an increase in investment and tourism, we are likely to see a pause.

And the first answer will be "what's changed?" In what way is, say, Belleek or Portadown or Ballycastle suddenly going to become the Marseille of Ireland? You don't have to explain to foreign businessmen that Game of Thrones is fiction, or that the battles today between Leinster and Ulster are limited to the rugby field. :rolleyes:

psinno wrote: »

Should be no problem as long as the vast majority of the 2 million people in NI are enthusiastic skilled and educated young people in their 20s and early 30s and Ireland goes through a few decades of unprecedented economic growth again.

You know, maybe if they're part of a successful, open, 21st Century cultural and economic European stronghold, the young people will be enthusiastic, skilled and educated. And whatever global conditions affect them in the future, the government of the Republic will face the same challenge regardless of whether that Republic has 26 or 32 counties.

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 10:57PM

murphaph wrote: »

Then keep your accusations of selfishness to yourself and we're good.

It genuinely wasn't an accusation of selfishness.

You have clearly laid out your reasons for rejecting a vote for unification on the grounds of how it would affect you economically.

You don't care about others. At least you are being honest about it, that is fine. I just don't think there as many like minded people as you claim.
If there is a long term benefit and an end to the cyclical violence caused by partition then I think the southern vote will be won easily.

murphaph · 30-12-2017 11:23PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It genuinely wasn't an accusation of selfishness.

You have clearly laid out your reasons for rejecting a vote for unification on the grounds of how it would affect you economically.

You don't care about others. At least you are being honest about it, that is fine. I just don't think there as many like minded people as you claim.
If there is a long term benefit and an end to the cyclical violence caused by partition then I think the southern vote will be won easily.

And you don't care if there are a few loyalist bombings in Dublin after a UI is (from their perspective) imposed on them. You consider a few bombs to be a price worth paying for your precious UI. I wouldn't consider it worth a single drop of blood from anyone. It's a line on a map.

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 11:36PM

murphaph wrote: »

And you don't care if there are a few loyalist bombings in Dublin after a UI is (from their perspective) imposed on them. You consider a few bombs to be a price worth paying for your precious UI. I wouldn't consider it worth a single drop of blood from anyone. It's a line on a map.

I don't believe there will be any bombs in Dublin. Because there will be no 'imposition' of anything.
A UI will happen as the result of a democratic vote.

Would protest, violent or otherwise stop you from doing things that were for the greater good?

murphaph · 30-12-2017 11:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't believe there will be any bombs in Dublin. Because there will be no 'imposition' of anything.
A UI will happen as the result of a democratic vote.

Would protest, violent or otherwise stop you from doing things that were for the greater good?

I don't believe a UI is for the greater good. It just never bothered me all that much.

You can be honest though (like you give me credit for) and state for the record that you would still vote for a UI even if you believed there would be a bombing or two in Dublin over it. Can you do that?

FrancieBrady · 30-12-2017 11:57PM

murphaph wrote: »

I don't believe a UI is for the greater good. It just never bothered me all that much.

You can be honest though (like you give me credit for) and state for the record that you would still vote for a UI even if you believed there would be a bombing or two in Dublin over it. Can you do that?

I would never allow the threat of violence deter me from doing something for the greater good.
You and a small band of southeners have had and have an acceptable level of violence it seems as violence is still happening as a result of partition.
I want to remove all causes of it from this island. That is the greater good.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 12:02AM

murphaph wrote: »

The south has changed beyond all recognition. The FF/FG divide is even melting away and these parties may not even exist independently by the time a referendum comes. A divide along civil war lines has no place in politics in 2017. It's nonsensical. Logic says it will vanish. They are effectively in coalition right now.

If you are living in Berlin, how do you know what has happened. As for Fianna Fail - they have been keeping their heads down for the last couple of years. Come the next general election, I'd imagine the old Fianna Fail will emerge.

I've already told you that I would vote for the economy first and a UI has to look economically attractive. I don't feel any debt is owed to nationalists on the north. If it doesn't work for me then I will reject it at the ballot box.

I think the Brexit vote would suggest that the economy doesn't always come first. The economy of Germany wasn't put first in the reunification of Germany.

One thing I think we have learned after the last recession, nothing lasts for ever and we have a great ability as a nation to roll our sleeves up and dig ourselves out of a hole.

Polls on these matters are incredibly error prone. It's like the people that put down Catholic Irish speaking on the census form having at most sung the national anthem and perhaps been in a church for a wedding on the past 12 months. They feel obliged to answer the pollster in the affirmative lest they be considered less Irish for daring to weigh up the options.

It doesn't matter when you were last in a church - most Irish people are cultural catholics (as opposed to Moslem, Methodist, Quaker etc). As for the Irish language - most people would have spent 12-14 years learning the language, so its hardly just about knowing the national anthem.

Junkyard Tom · 31-12-2017 12:10AM

murphaph wrote: »

loyalist bombings in Dublin.

*sigh* You're one of those who keep coming up with this doom-mongering.

What would unionists hope to achieve by bombing anyone/anywhere never mind Dublin?

Independence? Forget it.
To force the British back? Forget it.
To re-partition the northeast? Forget it.
For UVF controlled enclaves? They'd be welcome to them.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 12:26AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

*sigh* You're one of those who keep coming up with this doom-mongering.

What would unionists hope to achieve by bombing anyone/anywhere never mind Dublin?

Independence? Forget it.
To force the British back? Forget it.
To re-partition the northeast? Forget it.
For UVF controlled enclaves? They'd be welcome to them.

The DUP or the loyalist paramilitaries didn't support the Good Friday Agreement and no bombs went off in Dublin despite them not decommissioning at the time. They are too busy fighting with each other and intimidating local communities in Belfast.

MI5, PSNI and the Gardai seem to have very good anti terrorism cooperation going on anyway and I don't think the PSNI would be turning a blind eye to loyalist terrorist acts like the RUC did.

Junkyard Tom · 31-12-2017 12:46AM

jm08 wrote: »

The DUP or the loyalist paramilitaries didn't support the Good Friday Agreement and no bombs went off in Dublin despite them not decommissioning at the time. They are too busy fighting with each other and intimidating local communities in Belfast.

The Union/loyalist paramilitaries did as far as I can remember, the DUP didn't and moreover there were elements within the DUP who were keen that loyalists should keep on murdering when the Provos went on ceasefire:

MI5, PSNI and the Gardai seem to have very good anti terrorism cooperation going on anyway and I don't think the PSNI would be turning a blind eye to loyalist terrorist acts like the RUC did.

It will be in Britain's interests to make Unification work, Ireland has been nothing but trouble for them for a long time now and HM Treasury would much rather spend a fraction of that £10bn on helping to secure stability.

Carlos Orange · 31-12-2017 01:06AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't believe there will be any bombs in Dublin. Because there will be no 'imposition' of anything.
A UI will happen as the result of a democratic vote.

Democracy is all about imposition.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 01:07AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The Union/loyalist paramilitaries did as far as I can remember, the DUP didn't and moreover there were elements within the DUP who were keen that loyalists should keep on murdering when the Provos went on ceasefire:

They took their time decommisioning - think it was self policed by the leadership up to about 5 years ago.

Anyway, once the Agreement was signed, bombs did not go off in Dublin.

Charles Babbage · 31-12-2017 01:53AM

murphaph wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I spent 30 years watching bombs going off all over these isles, including ones in my own town and which affected my own family. While people in the south (thankfully only a few) were not caring or being affected by it.
Please don't try and trivialise what I am.

Then keep your accusations of selfishness to yourself and we're good.

Accusations of selfishness would not arise if you yourself did not state that you did not give a damn.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 03:01AM

murphaph wrote: »

You live near the border I believe so this probably applies to you and most of your neighbours but I can't say that once in my life has partition posed a problem for me. The further from the border you get the less likely it is you'll find people who were ever affected by partition.

But partition has, and continues, to cause huge problems across vast swathes of the south. You appear to be willfully ignorant of the economic and social damage caused to southern border counties like Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan, Louth over the last 100 years, Donegal in particular. That's hundreds of thousands of southern citizens who have spent generations negatively impacted by the border. You don't care about them, you don't care about northerners of any stripe. Is there anyone on this island you actually care about, do you have any sense of civic responsibility and communal belonging whatsoever, or is it all entirely about what you can get for yourself?

Some of that damage in the border region has been lessened over the last 20 years of an open border and peace. That's why southern border communities were furious about the British ham-fisted bollxology threatening a hard border a few weeks back, to the point that even FG woke up and realised they needed to fight for an open border.

All your posts are entirely about (wildly overblown) potential negatives. You just assume the north is going to cost bazillions a week forever. You just assume all Nordies are mad killers just itching to slaughter one another again. You refuse to accept that the north costs the UK because it has been appallingly badly run. You refuse to accept the benefits for the north, and the southern border regions, from removing the distorting trade and currency effects of the border. You refuse to accept the potential for economic development for the north once the IDA can get in there and do what they do best (and worse you refuse to accept that because you insist no FDA will want to set up in the north because all Nordies are mad killers). You refuse to accept the points made that the subvention figures that get bandied about are at best inaccurate for many reasons - taxes paid by large Britain-based companies like Tescos are not included, NI's contribution to UK-wide expenditure like the militaryand the Royals is included, just for starters. You insist that the costs now will always be the costs in perpetuity and will even rise without a shred of evidence and in defiance of all logic - it'll be a completely different set-up, instead of being run as a neglected unwanted off-shoot colony it'll be an integral part of the UI administration. You dismiss the whole concept that a UI will be a process with a transitional period of probably 5 or so years as tax, welfare, education and health systems etc are harmonised. And that's a huge opportunity for the entire island as we can take the best bits of both existing systems and make fundamental reforms in all sorts of areas.

You claim you would vote for a UI if it meant more money in your pocket. Frankly I don't believe you. You have an extremely negative apocalyptic, indeed almost racist, view of all northerners and anything to do with the north. I don't think you would vote for a UI if it was guaranteed to lead to world peace, a chicken in every pot and a fluffy puppy for every child.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 03:18AM

jm08 wrote: »

Anyway, once the Agreement was signed, bombs did not go off in Dublin.

That's why all this hysterical gibberish about the Loyalpocalypse just makes me laugh. There haven't been Loyalist bombs in Dublin since the 1970s. And what few - just 2 or 3 IIRC - bombs there were, have been heavily implied were actually largely the work of the British with the UVF claiming the credit.

Loyalists didn't go on a killing spree when the GFA was signed. They didn't go on a killing spree when Paisley finally agreed to go into government with SF. They didn't go on a killing spree when Martin McGuinness was appointed Education Minister - informed people will remember the sustained torrent of aggrieved outrage from Unionism at the time. Outrage and bluster yes, bombs and killings no. They didn't go on a killing spree when the Flegs came down from Belfast City Hall. A couple of weeks of mild rioting, easily contained by the PSNI. There'll be no army of superhuman unstoppable killing-machine Loyalists descending on Dublin throwing nuclear-armed Lambegs around the place. It's a deranged fantasy and nothing more.

There's simply no appetite for it, even in Loyalist sink estates. And the professional, middle class and farming unionist population wouldn't stand for it.

It's nonsense, driven largely by this bonkers notion that all nordies suffer a genetic defect that pre-disposes them to hauling off and killing one another on the slightest pretext. A genetic defect that magically disappears from the population along an invisible line drawn up less than 100 years ago. But this is the level of "thinking" we have come to expect from those who read the likes of the Sindo comic.

dok_golf · 31-12-2017 03:48AM

murphaph wrote: »

And you don't care if there are a few loyalist bombings in Dublin after a UI is (from their perspective) imposed on them. You consider a few bombs to be a price worth paying for your precious UI. I wouldn't consider it worth a single drop of blood from anyone. It's a line on a map.

Just to play devil's advocate, what happens if there is a 50% +1 majority in the north for a UI and reunification process doesn't start?? You reckon the nationalist community will sit back and allow their democratic rights to be over ridden??

Costs of Irish unification.

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