Costs of Irish unification.

Donnielighto wrote: »

Ulster Scots isn't a language, it's a dialect. That whole affair is/was ridiculous.

A dialect of what language? ( not trying to stir )

dok_golf wrote: »

A dialect of what language? ( not trying to stir )

scots gaelic

Sam Russell wrote: »

What I am saying is that under the GFA, it is the Secretary for NI that makes the decision. He just has to satisfy himself that there is a 'majority' in favour of reunification. He makes the decision, and clearly he would consult widely before committing to hold a referendum, otherwise he would be a fool.



It is not 'nationalists' that require any percentage, it is up to the Sec of State for NI to be satisfied - he makes that call. If only 51% looked likely to vote yes, he would be foolish to accept those odds, since there is a limit to the accuracy of polls.



Politics will dictate the holding of a border poll. However, it will not be held unless a result is certain, one way or another. It could be given as a sop to the DUP to put the question on the back burner for seven years or more.

The reason I picked 75% is because that is the figure that would indicate that Unionist voters supported it by more than 50% of their group. It also makes it unlikely that any revolt would gain traction.

It has been suggested ( by Senator daly though I don't know is it in the report) that a border poll wont be called until there is a nationalist majority in Stormont for a minimum of 3 or 4 elections.

TBH, and it was always going to be the case that 'events' would be the gamechanger on this island.
I think, hiding in plain sight, in this article, is the gamechanger.
If, the future turns out anyway like those applying for passports suspect then a 75% vote ion favour is not in the slightest bit unrealistic.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1229/930123-ireland-passports/

Another thing, if there's say a 55% pro-UI vote it's not going to be 55% Catholics/Nationalists - they don't have numbers for it. I'd say in the region of 15% of the 55% pro-UI vote would be from Protestant/Other/not-religious backgrounds.

tomwaterford wrote: »

*There is a pool of taught*...that upon reunification the irish state should push for union jack to be outlawed as no part of ireland will be in the union hence making it an illogical flag
)

Jaysus, I think you mean a school of thought.

murphaph wrote: »

I'm telling you that vast swathes of the north will be set on fire 10 minutes after the result is called and the southern electorate will have to decide if it wants to take over the mad house.

That's why I've said all along that nationalists realistically need to win unionists over to the UI cause. A 50%+1 majority will inspire no confidence among the southern electorate that things would actually work out.

50%+1 of unionists is the magic number.

What planet are you living on? The British have spent the last 25 years defanging Unionism. UDR gone, RUC gone, B Specials gone, arms training and intelligence removed from Loyalists, old Paisley is dead and they have no orators of his skill to whip up hatred.

Compare the UWC armed coup against Sunningdale in 74, to the monster rallies and violence against the AIA in 85, to Drumcree in the late 90s, to the pathetic whimpers of the 2012/3 Fleg protests and the surreal (and pathetic) Twadell Camp. For those of us living in the really real world the trajectory is quite clear. Violent Unionism is on its last legs. The overwhelming majority of Northern Protestants are perfectly ordinary law-abiding Joe Soaps just like everyone else, not whatever savage tribe of superhuman ninja warrior killing machines that exists in your fevered fantasies. They'll mostly care about their jobs and the education and healthcare for their kids, like normal people do, not be plotting the overthrow of the Papist State.

And demanding 50% of Unionists support before a UI....that's another deranged thing we often hear from the Harrisite lunatic fringe. It makes zero sense. If they vote for a UI then they aren't unionists, by definition. Maybe you actually mean Protestants, which means you are the one with the sectarian religious hang-ups here. So what, people have to declare their religion before they are allowed to vote in the UI referendum? How does that impact on the secrecy of the ballot? Is it all Protestants or only the mainstream CoI/Presbyterian/Methodists? What about Baptists, Quakers or Mormons, do they count for the purposes of your Protestant-only sectarian headcount? Is there a minimum number of services they need to attend each year to qualify as a practicing Protestant or is this a tribal birth matter for you? For that matter, what about atheists, Muslims, Hindus and Jews, are they even allowed to vote or should they just stay at home?

What's the final logical outcome of this genius idea of yours? Everyone living within 5 miles of Schloss Paisley has a veto on a UI? The spides of Glenbryn get to decide the future of the whole island? Rampant nonsense. It's 50%+1 of eligible voters. End. Of.

The Loyalpocalypse you claim to be terrified of is a myth. The ground rules are laid down in an internationally registered treaty. Furiously shifting goalposts now and inventing all sorts of mad new pre-conditions, just as a vote for a UI in the near future seems plausible, isn't going to wash, and isn't fooling anyone. Yer just gonna have to get over it.

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If a majority in NI come to favour a UI then change will occur, preventing that change is even more likely to lead to instability as you would be opposing a majority not a minority and change would be inevitable eventually in any case.  You just have to work with the integrity of that democratic change and minimise the damage.

But, of course, your point really is that northern nationalists are a lesser class of person, whose rights are subservient both to unionists and people who happen to live in a different part of the country.

Well said Sir!

blanch152 wrote: »

So it is a separate language then?

A separate language? No, not in my opinion.

blanch152 wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What are you basing the last bit on?

I would imagine that politics will dictate when a poll happens.
If somebody can exert pressure, look or need to be given a favour, it will happen.
I.E. it could be a dividend for SF agreeing to go into a coalition, or back into an executive. It could be in return for Irish support in some aspect of Brexit. Who knows. Events dear boy, events.
*look at why the Brexit referendum happened in the first place had nothing to do with a desire to leave Europe.

Politics may dictate. A Labour Northern Secretary under Corbyn may decide to hold a poll for the hell of it. Won't work out well if the preparation isn't done.

No, they can't call one "for the hell of it", stop scaremongering.
The actual text of the GFA says the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland can hold a border poll if it seems likely it will pass:

1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.
2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.
3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.

As for a majority for a UI, well
1) Unionists are now a minority. In the last Assembly election, UUP + DUP + TUV = 43.6%. SF + SDLP = 39.8%. Alliance + Green + PBP = 13.2%. Nationalists plus Centrists are already a majority.
2) Large numbers of unionists voted against Brexit. North and South Belfast and North Down voted Remain, with very close results in heavily-Unionist constituencies like South Antrim, Belfast East, Upper Bann and Strangford. Brexit was only really popular in the DUP's Bible Belt heartland of North Antrim. If Brexit, as seems likely, proves to be a disaster there are lots of middle-class, professional and wealthy farmer people of a unionist background that are possibly now persuadable in a post-Brexit scenario.

Certain elements in the south (who I firmly believe are actually a tiny minority, just very very vocal in the media and online) need to stop with all this "all Nordies are genetic mutant killing machines", "the north is as poor as Somalia", "themmuns up there are all foreign and mad", "loyalists will kill everybody", "unification will bankrupt the country and plunge the whole island into a thousand years of poverty and darkness" hysterical nonsense and start engaging with the actual realities of the situation we all find ourselves in and start engaging their brains and engaging in practical sensible dialogue on the practicalities.

Sidey wrote: »

What planet are you living on? The British have spent the last 25 years defanging Unionism. UDR gone, RUC gone, B Specials gone, arms training and intelligence removed from Loyalists, old Paisley is dead and they have no orators of his skill to whip up hatred.

Compare the UWC armed coup against Sunningdale in 74, to the monster rallies and violence against the AIA in 85, to Drumcree in the late 90s, to the pathetic whimpers of the 2012/3 Fleg protests and the surreal (and pathetic) Twadell Camp. For those of us living in the really real world the trajectory is quite clear. Violent Unionism is on its last legs. The overwhelming majority of Northern Protestants are perfectly ordinary law-abiding Joe Soaps just like everyone else, not whatever savage tribe of superhuman ninja warrior killing machines that exists in your fevered fantasies. They'll mostly care about their jobs and the education and healthcare for their kids, like normal people do, not be plotting the overthrow of the Papist State.

And demanding 50% of Unionists support before a UI....that's another deranged thing we often hear from the Harrisite lunatic fringe. It makes zero sense. If they vote for a UI then they aren't unionists, by definition. Maybe you actually mean Protestants, which means you are the one with the sectarian religious hang-ups here. So what, people have to declare their religion before they are allowed to vote in the UI referendum? How does that impact on the secrecy of the ballot? Is it all Protestants or only the mainstream CoI/Presbyterian/Methodists? What about Baptists, Quakers or Mormons, do they count for the purposes of your Protestant-only sectarian headcount? Is there a minimum number of services they need to attend each year to qualify as a practicing Protestant or is this a tribal birth matter for you? For that matter, what about atheists, Muslims, Hindus and Jews, are they even allowed to vote or should they just stay at home?

What's the final logical outcome of this genius idea of yours? Everyone living within 5 miles of Schloss Paisley has a veto on a UI? The spides of Glenbryn get to decide the future of the whole island? Rampant nonsense. It's 50%+1 of eligible voters. End. Of.

The Loyalpocalypse you claim to be terrified of is a myth. The ground rules are laid down in an internationally registered treaty. Furiously shifting goalposts now and inventing all sorts of mad new pre-conditions, just as a vote for a UI in the near future seems plausible, isn't going to wash, and isn't fooling anyone. Yer just gonna have to get over it.

Calm down a bit.

If it's 50% + 1 in both jurisdictions then a UI it shall be but I (and I believe many others in the south) would want to see at least half the Protestants in the north vote in favour.

A UI is plausible for the first time in my life but only because of Brexit and Brexit has yet to run its course. If its soft enough then the status quo is effectively preserved and the UK economy won't implode and things will more or less carry on as now.

Sidey wrote: »

I'm perfectly calm, I'm merely taking the p1ss out of obvious nonsense.

You have precisely zero evidence to back up your claim that bazillions of southern voters want to insist on over half of all Northern Protestants voting in favour of a UI. It's something you've invented entirely out of thin air. And as mentioned, has never been a precondition before, has never been insisted on previously by either Unionism or London, isn't in the terms of the GFA, and simply Isn't Going To Happen so you might as well get on building that bridge and getting over it.

You have no answer to the serious question of how on earth you are defining "Protestant" and how you intend to monitor the vote to ensure sufficient Protestants have voted in the correct manner to satisfy your latest shifting goalpost.

Thirdly, a UI is NOT plausible now "onlybecause of Brexit". The demographics have been shifting for decades! For many, many years now people studying demographics have been pointing to unionism first losing its majority status (which happened earlier this year in case you have not been paying attention); and then a nationalist electoral majority emerging by the late 2020s. Nationalists are in a clear majority among school-age children. Over time they will all become voters. Tick tock.

Brexit has accelerated the process somewhat by making Alliance/Green centrist voters and middle-class small-u unionists seriously consider their post-Brexit futures, and everyone living in the border regions focus on the economic gains of the last 20 years of peace and an open border, but this was coming down the tracks in the next 10-15 years anyway, Brexit or no Brexit.

Oh dear. Someone doesn't know how many of those Catholics work in British civil service dealing with clients from all over the UK. They will lose their cushy jobs in the event of a UI and they know it.

Voting for SF certainly doesn't mean they'd vote to bite the hand that feeds them.

I'll vote my way and you vote yours if the day ever comes. I suspect I'll be a pensioner before it does, even given a hard Brexit.

murphaph wrote: »

Oh dear. Someone doesn't know how many of those Catholics work in British civil service dealing with clients from all over the UK. They will lose their cushy jobs in the event of a UI and they know it.

Voting for SF certainly doesn't mean they'd vote to bite the hand that feeds them.

I'll vote my way and you vote yours if the day ever comes. I suspect I'll be a pensioner before it does, even given a hard Brexit.

OK so you aren't dealing in facts, just your own prejudices and fantasies. I'm from Derry BTW. It's been pretty clear throughout this thread that your knowledge of the north is sketchy at best and usually either wildly out of date or completely inaccurate. I really don't think you are someone to be taken seriously on this topic, do you?