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Champions Cup Permutations 2017/18 after Round 4

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  • 18-12-2017 11:07am
    #1
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭


    2.3 The five pool winners and three best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:
    (a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the three clubs with the highest number of match points out of the five clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 5 and the best-placed runners-up ranked 6th, 7th and 8th by reference to the number of match points earned.

    (b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
    (i) the club with the greater number of match points from the two matches; or
    (ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches; or
    (iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in the two matches.

    (c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined as follows:
    (i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
    (ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
    (iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or
    (iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

    KNOCKOUT STAGE
    2.4 The clubs ranked 1 to 4 will have home advantage for the quarter-finals as follows:
    Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1)
    Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2)
    Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3)
    Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4)

    NB The format for the semi-final matches in the Champions Cup recognises performances by clubs during the pool stages as well as the achievement of clubs winning quarter-final matches away from home.

    The winner of QF1 will play the winner of QF2 in one semi-final, and the winner of QF3 will play the winner of QF4 in the other semi-final as follows:

    Semi-final 1: winner QF1 v winner QF2
    Semi-final 2: winner QF3 v winner QF4

    http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/rules.php

    Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

    (#) denotes the points difference, the rules above indicate that points difference is the first differential used to separate teams from different pools that have the same points.

    Pool 1:
    La Rochelle 15 (+33)
    Ulster Rugby 13 (+26)
    Wasps 10 (+19)
    Harlequins 2 (-78)

    Harlequins vs Wasps
    Ulster Rugby vs La Rochelle
    La Rochelle vs Harlequins
    Wasps vs Ulster Rugby

    La Rochelle to top the pool with six points in their remaining games. Ulster might have enough to edge La Rochelle at home but I don't see them achieving the necessary at Wasps in Round 6. Wasps are a good bet for a runner-up spot.

    Pool 2:
    Clermont Auvergne 18 (+57)
    Ospreys 13 (+21)
    Saracens 11 (+11)
    Northampton Saints 1 (-89)

    Northampton Saints vs Clermont Auvergne
    Ospreys vs Saracens
    Clermont Auvergne vs Ospreys
    Saracens vs Northampton Saints

    Clermont to secure 9 points in their remaining games and quality as top seeds. Despite sketchy form I expect Saracens to win in Swansea and then follow that up with a demolition of Northampton at home.

    Pool 3:
    Leinster Rugby 18 (+38)
    Montpellier 13 (+7)
    Exeter Chiefs 9 (-3)
    Glasgow Warriors 2 (-42)

    Exeter Chiefs vs Montpellier
    Leinster Rugby vs Glasgow Warriors
    Montpellier vs Leinster Rugby
    Glasgow Warriors vs Exeter Chiefs

    Leinster will win with a bonus point at home to Glasgow and earn an LBP at Montpellier to comfortably secure a home quarter final. Montpellier will just miss out on runner-up spot.

    Pool 4:
    Munster Rugby 15 (+39)
    Racing 92 11 (+16)
    Castres 7 (-44)
    Leicester Tigers 6 (-11)

    Racing 92 vs Munster
    Castres vs Leicester Tigers
    Munster vs Castres
    Leicester Tigers vs Racing 92

    Total bias talking but I expect Munster to win at Racing 92. Castres will send their U20s in Round 6 to make it an easy five points for the home side. Munster to top the pool with a home quarter-final to come.

    Pool 5:
    Bath Rugby 13 (+29)
    RC Toulon 13 (+1)
    Scarlets 12 (+18)
    Benetton Rugby 3 (-48)

    RC Toulon vs Benetton Rugby
    Bath Rugby vs Scarlets
    Scarlets vs RC Toulon
    Benetton Rugby vs Bath Rugby

    It all comes down to Bath vs Scarlets in Round 5 to shape the pool. I'll back the home side to come through it and then earn a TBP at Benetton. Toulon will make no mistakes this time against Benetton but will lose a narrow game in Llanelli. Bath and Toulon to progress.

    SEEDING PREDICTION

    1. Clermont (27)
    2. Munster (24)
    3. Leinster (24)
    4. Bath (22)
    5. La Rochelle (21)
    6. Saracens (20)
    7. Toulon (19)
    8. Wasps (19)

    In the above case, here are the Quarter-Finals:

    1 v 8: Clermont vs Wasps
    2 v 7: Munster vs Toulon
    3 v 6: Leinster vs Saracens
    4 v 5: Bath vs La Rochelle

    If anything looks incorrect, please let me know!


Comments

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    #2
    Bridge93
    Registered Users Posts: 7,018 ✭✭✭Bridge93


    Think I'd go along with all those results apart from Munster in Paris. Don't think they'll win there without Racing playing poorly. Think that means Munster swap with Bath and are home/away to La Rochelle

    Actually I'll back the Scarlets in Bath too


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    #3
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Oh I would love to have Sarries come here in the quarters. Bring it on.


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    #4
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    irishbucsfan wrote: »
    Oh I would love to have Sarries come here in the quarters. Bring it on.

    #KNOCKOUTSARSEHOLES


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    #5
    who_me
    Registered Users Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭who_me


    Bridge93 wrote: »
    Think I'd go along with all those results apart from Munster in Paris. Don't think they'll win there without Racing playing poorly. Think that means Munster swap with Bath and are home/away to La Rochelle

    Actually I'll back the Scarlets in Bath too

    Considering the hard work we made of beating Racing in Thomond, I don't think we have much to be too confident about alright. I do think we're steadily improving, but that'll be a massive game. Racing look to be taking the competition seriously.

    I don't know if there's any specific team I'd want to play in the QFs (if we make it!) but La Rochelle are probably the type of team most likely to cut us apart. It's their lack of knock-out experience (and possibly, porous defence) against our inability to defend against fast expansive phase play.


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    #6
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    For Leinster I'd be most hoping for Toulon as we really owe them one.

    I'd probably least want either Exeter or La Rochelle as I think they are both good enough to be finalists / tournament winners.

    I'd love to put Saracens out but I wouldn't be seeking them out in the quarter finals simply because they've a Champions cup winning squad there that is going to click eventually. Plus if we got Saracens that means Ulster don't and that is a game I want to see.

    I'm moving towards the idea that Leinster should go to Montpellier as favourites. May depend on who the teams have available but after the Exeter double header we should fancy our chances over there, we've moved up a level since last year.

    Clermont to top the pool stages with 28 points with Leinster second on 27.


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    #7
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,356 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    La Rochelle will send the A team to Ulster in January, I think it's a big ask. Two losses are more likely for Ulster than two wins.


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    #8
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,356 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Deleted User wrote: »
    For Leinster I'd be most hoping for Toulon as we really owe them one.

    I'd probably least want either Exeter or La Rochelle as I think they are both good enough to be finalists / tournament winners.

    I'd love to put Saracens out but I wouldn't be seeking them out in the quarter finals simply because they've a Champions cup winning squad there that is going to click eventually. Plus if we got Saracens that means Ulster don't and that is a game I want to see.

    I'm moving towards the idea that Leinster should go to Montpellier as favourites. May depend on who the teams have available but after the Exeter double header we should fancy our chances over there, we've moved up a level since last year.

    Clermont to top the pool stages with 28 points with Leinster second on 27.

    It would take a miracle for Saracens v Ulster to be a possible fixture.


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    #9
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 12,999 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Munster's pool is really interesting. Racing still have it all to play for going into round 5 which is unusual enough for them. They can be top of the pool going into round 6, which will potentially be a trip to Leicester who are all but out of the competition.


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    #10
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    awec wrote: »
    It would take a miracle for Saracens v Ulster to be a possible fixture.

    I know but If any Irish team is to put out Saracens I'd like Ulster to do it, even if Munster's defeat is more recent.

    On a side note, it's been a terrific tournament. Some absolute classics so far and so many teams still in with a shout. If an Irish province can go on and win the thing it may end up being one of the best years for the new / old tournament to date.


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    #11
    THFC198
    Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭THFC198


    Pool A
    La Rochelle - 25
    Wasps - 19
    Ulster - 16
    Harlequins -2

    I can see a re fired up La Rochelle getting 5 in Belfast but an ever improving Ulster to get two losing bonus points, with Wasps hammering Harlequins.
    Then La Rochelle's turn to hammer Harlequins with the runner up spot decided in London with both teams on 15, can just see wasps edging this one but very close to call.

    Pool B
    Clermont - 28
    Saracens - 20
    Ospreys - 14
    Northampton - 1

    Clermont to win comfortably in Franklins Gardens with their focus on making sure they don't get dragged into a relegation fight in the Prem. Ospreys vs Saracens has potential to be a great game but I think the return of Vunipola and Itoje upfront will let them edge the encounter.
    This pretty much writes the group up with bonus point wins for Saracens and Clermont in round 6

    Pool C
    Leinster - 27
    Exeter - 18
    Montpellier - 15
    Glasgow - 2

    I think that Exeter are a much better team than Montpellier who I don't see being able to outsmart the English champions. Leinster to win comfortably at home to Glasgow
    I think Exeter will get max. points in Scotland in round 6 with the tough game to call definitely Leinster in Montpellier. However, I think Leinster are a team on the up and will be to edge out the narrowest of wins in France.

    Pool D
    Munster - 24
    Racing - 13
    Leicester - 11
    Castres - 11

    I think the Castres vs Leicester game could go either way in a match that'll see neither full team out. I think that Munsters organisation will be too much for racing in Paris, a narrow munster win.
    Round 6 doesn't look like the most dramatic of days for this group with Racing, Castres and Leicester all basically knocking each other out. Munster to get 5 points and Leicester to win narrowly.

    Pool E
    Bath - 22
    Toulon - 22
    Scarlets - 14
    Treviso - 3

    Bath to narrowly win at home to the Scarlets, with Toulon going all out on Treviso
    Bath to win well in Italy with Treviso's previous battles coming back to haunt them in the fact that no team will under estimate them anymore although I think they're a season away from making a serious impact on the comp. Toulon ,as kings of the tight game, to narrowly win in Wales.

    Seeding
    1- Clermont - 28
    2- Leinster - 27
    3- La Rochelle - 25
    4- Munster - 24
    5- Bath - 22
    6- Toulon - 22
    7- Saracens - 20
    8- Wasps - 19

    Quarter Finals

    Clermont vs Wasps

    Munster vs Bath

    La Rochelle vs Toulon

    Leinster vs Saracens


    Semis

    Clermont/Wasps vs Munster/Bath

    Leinster/Saracens vs La Rochelle/Toulon

    I think that with this line up Clermont, Munster Leinster and Toulon to come through their matches. With Toulons away win (I'm unsure on whether La Rochelle have knockout rugby in them) this means they'll be home to Leinster and the other semi being Clermont vs Munster in France aswell.


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    #12
    errlloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 12,599 ✭✭✭✭errlloyd


    Offer me a fit Jonny Sexton, Luke McGrath and Robbie Henshaw and I'll take Saracens in the quarters.

    This is the first year in a while I've felt like Leinster are in this to win. We're not here to build, or transition anymore. (Touch wood). As such we may as well knock them out at the first opportunity, it'll be easier to play them in Dublin than Bilbao.


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    #13
    randomname2005
    Registered Users Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭randomname2005


    With the three injuries to Wasps, hopefully things might change a little in favour of Ulster.

    Edit: Source https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105626667&postcount=464


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    #14
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 12,999 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    I know they've played Northampton twice but I wonder what odds you'd have gotten on Ospreys being ahead of Saracens after round four in their pool.


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    #15
    randomname2005
    Registered Users Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭randomname2005


    Probably quite good. It would be great if they could finish 2nd in the group.


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