2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Capt'n Midnight · 24-04-2017 05:14PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

If you are voting DUP, then you cannot vote Tory, SNP or Labour.

DUP are tory wannabes ,

But if May get's a big enough majority they won't be needed.
If Scotland leaves then the Tories have a bigger majority and DUP won't have a say.

UK relying on Northern Ireland MP's is not going to happen again for a couple of elections, if ever, there won't be a Gerry Fitt taking down the Government anytime soon.

PopePalpatine · 24-04-2017 05:28PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

DUP are tory wannabes ,

But if May get's a big enough majority they won't be needed.
If Scotland leaves then the Tories have a bigger majority and DUP won't have a say.

UK relying on Northern Ireland MP's is not going to happen again for a couple of elections, if ever, there won't be a Gerry Fitt taking down the Government anytime soon.

Nah, the DUP are Tories after too much altar wine. When was the last time a Tory MP dropped a clanger like this?

Lemming · 24-04-2017 07:27PM

Interesting suggestion I've seen put forth elsewhere; that whole minor little circus with Tory MPs being likely done for election fraud has seen May call the snap election as she is guaruanteed to lose seats if she follows through on the term of government vs. risking it all with positive looking poll numbers now. Mind you, it also serves as a convenient distraction from the matter at hand too.

murphaph · 24-04-2017 07:30PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

So? I'm voting for stronger Unionism for this election.

Nobody on the mainland (Southern England) appears to be listening to the voices of the regions, especially if they vote for regional parties.

May will have such a majority that she won't need DUP support in parliament thereafter.

For Forks Sake · 24-04-2017 07:33PM

Wales to turn blue? http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/tories-hold-10-point-lead-over-labour-in-wales-poll-shows-1.3059719

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-04-2017 07:35PM

BoatMad wrote: »

Th only interesting thing of this election , will be the result for the SNP as this election for them is a proxy Indyref2

May is very very clever

Is it seats or the popular vote? If it is seats then the SNP will win big time in Scotland. Maybe not as good as 2 years ago but they did get 95% of the seats which is very hard to follow

May was probably more interested in protecting the Tory Party from Election Fraud fall out

A Dub in Glasgo · 24-04-2017 07:37PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

SNP won't clean up this election, they will lose a number of seats, Tories will gain 380-400 seats, Labour will take a tanking.

I'm voting DUP.

The Tories will gain 380-400 seats??

I am voting SNP

murphaph · 24-04-2017 07:40PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Is it seats or the popular vote? If it is seats then the SNP will win big time in Scotland. Maybe not as good as 2 years ago but they did get 95% of the seats which is very hard to follow

May was probably more interested in protecting the Tory Party from Election Fraud fall out

Yeah which is why Corbyn should have refused to support the election as it prevents "due process" (the investigation into Tory election fraud).

May is really quite despicable.

Leonard Hofstadter · 24-04-2017 09:18PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Wales to turn blue? http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/tories-hold-10-point-lead-over-labour-in-wales-poll-shows-1.3059719

Wouldn't surprise me at all, Labour are catastrophically weak and were completely complicit on Brexit. Why vote for a Synthetic Brexit party like Labour when you can vote for the real deal - and at least (from a British point of view) May won't be a pushover and will do a much better job of trying to salvage something in the negotiations with the EU.

The best possible outcome for the UK would be for the Tories to get in but with hardly any more seats than they currently have, the Lib Dems will get a substantial increase on their current vote to show that the remainers haven't gone silent and our voice deserves to be heard, Labour gets absolutely hammered and they will pick someone who lives in the real world and is also anti-Brexit (or anti-hard Brexit at any rate) and again we will have credible opposition to the all the fruitcakes, loons and clowns running the Tories at the moment.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-04-2017 09:21PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Wales to turn blue?

That's exactly what happened in Scotland

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/24/labour-facing-real-risk-of-wipeout-as-their-polling-slump-continues/

In the 2015 General Election in Scotland, Labour polled 24.3% to the SNP’s 50%, and lost 40 of their 41 seats.
..
And just because a constituency has been held by the party for decades does not mean that it can’t be swept away in a wave, as many former Scottish Labour MPs will be able to tell you.

The local elections on the 4th of May could provide a clue as to the fate awaiting Labour in June, and if there will be any individual constituency polling carried out this might provide some insight also. However on the night of the election, the usually safe Labour seats in Sunderland will provide an early glimpse of whether Labour are facing a merely bad night, or a cataclysmic one.

France's new president won't be coming from a mainstream party.
France's En Marche! didn't exist a few years ago, neither did Italy's Five Star.

Had there been some sort of representative PR and had the party got itself sorted out then the Lib Dems might have cleaned up.

The question is where will the remain voters go ?
Or rather given that Brexit has unstoppable momentum by virtue of Labour standing aside as the Tories force it through, will the remain voters be tempted to try and save the NHS ? Or will the offer of 4 public holidays be seen as Jumping the Shark ?

youreadthat · 24-04-2017 10:27PM

captainspeed wrote: »

I totally agree, but you know what the likes of the Telegraph, Mail and Express are capable of. Absolute hypocrites, but that's why I can't understand why there's been so little change in Scotland - I mean let's face it, May has open contempt towards Scotland. When May and the Tories talk about 'strengthening the union' what they really mean is that Scotland will do whatever England wants - it most certainly is not an equal partnership of four nations, or anything even close. If they were true unionists and really cared for Scotland, they would have gone for a soft Brexit, as they'd still be delivering on what England and Wales wanted (leaving the EU) but showing that Scotland and Northern Ireland are still two important parts of the union and keeping the close ties with Europe as a reflection of their strong remain vote.

Nonetheless, anything less than the SNP keeping 54 of their 59 seats will be spun as a 'disaster' for the SNP and 'conclusive proof' that Scots are not obsessed with independence like Sturgeon wants. The ironic thing is, I think Sturgeon is great, I find her a far more likeable character than Alex Salmond, he irritated me so much in the 2014 IndyRef and I was so glad to see independence defeated at the time. Now I see the SNP as being the only useful opposition to the Tories not just in Scotland but throughout the UK along with the Lib Dems and I think Sturgeon is a very capable and effective First Minister and I would probably vote for independence were I resident in Scotland, although I'd be far more likely to campaign and do something about it were the SNP to commit to joining at least the EEA and ultimately the EU.

You should just come out as an Anglophobe, could have saved 2 paragraphs.

ancapailldorcha · 24-04-2017 10:32PM

youreadthat wrote: »

You should just come out as an Anglophobe, could have saved 2 paragraphs.

Don't post in this manner again.

BoatMad · 25-04-2017 12:21PM

Nonetheless, anything less than the SNP keeping 54 of their 59 seats will be spun as a 'disaster' for the SNP and 'conclusive proof' that Scots are not obsessed with independence like Sturgeon wants.

yes , and I think this is part of Mays thinking in forcing a GE now, rather then having it around a Brexit deal timescale which aids the SNP argument

I think thi sis much more likely to result in a realistic Brexit, perhaps with transition periods rather then any hard line ( which is practice is virtually impossible to have anyway )

Once france is settled as looks likely and the Netherlands has stated its Pro EU and german elections are past, the EU itself will feel more secure and in that case is more likely ti reach a decent compromise with the UK

Leonard Hofstadter · 25-04-2017 05:24PM

BoatMad wrote: »

yes , and I think this is part of Mays thinking in forcing a GE now, rather then having it around a Brexit deal timescale which aids the SNP argument

I think thi sis much more likely to result in a realistic Brexit, perhaps with transition periods rather then any hard line ( which is practice is virtually impossible to have anyway )

Once france is settled as looks likely and the Netherlands has stated its Pro EU and german elections are past, the EU itself will feel more secure and in that case is more likely ti reach a decent compromise with the UK

It's better for both the EU and the UK once we're both clear about each side's future. Part of the rhetoric is undoubtedly because of the situation in the UK and France. If May faces down the lunatics on the hard right as well as she's faced down the remainers then we might have some semblance of a sensible deal. May is right when she says a deal is in the mutual interest of both sides - but let's be clear it cannot be Britain having all the benefits of being in the EU but none of the drawbacks, or anything even close to it. It should be to EU standards (and rules) not to whatever the right wing loonies in the Tories want and not allow a Singapore on Thames style taxation system, either.

Fratton Fred · 25-04-2017 05:44PM

It's worth remembering that it was Theresa May that stood in front of a Police federation conference and told them she was cutting their funding, for which she was heckled and jeered.

She cut out corruption, nepotism and red tape in the police, which again won her few friends.

She also blocked the extradition of Gary McKinnon to the US.

She isn't afraid of a scrap when required.

Leonard Hofstadter · 25-04-2017 05:52PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It's worth remembering that it was Theresa May that stood in front of a Police federation conference and told them she was cutting their funding, for which she was heckled and jeered.

She cut out corruption, nepotism and red tape in the police, which again won her few friends.

She also blocked the extradition of Gary McKinnon to the US.

She isn't afraid of a scrap when required.

She's certainly no pushover and has no problem doing mental gymnastics when required, just look at how she ignores Scotland. She's no Thatcher, though, she's quite a bit more centrist and at least recognises the importance of the border.

She's not a flashy or showy politician, which I see as a positive.

The problem is nobody has any idea what she actually thinks. I really don't know if she wants a hard Brexit (I certainly hope not and she's given the lunatics in her own party more than enough red meat) - if you read some of the papers you'll find she's apparently scared of upsetting the Daily Mail, and they certainly do not want a soft Brexit or anything even close to it.

Fratton Fred · 25-04-2017 06:07PM

captainspeed wrote: »

She's certainly no pushover and has no problem doing mental gymnastics when required, just look at how she ignores Scotland. She's no Thatcher, though, she's quite a bit more centrist and at least recognises the importance of the border.

She's not a flashy or showy politician, which I see as a positive.

The problem is nobody has any idea what she actually thinks. I really don't know if she wants a hard Brexit (I certainly hope not and she's given the lunatics in her own party more than enough red meat) - if you read some of the papers you'll find she's apparently scared of upsetting the Daily Mail, and they certainly do not want a soft Brexit or anything even close to it.

I would presume, that her background (and her husbands) in finance would make her fully appreciate the dangers of a hard Brexit.

At the moment, I see her trying to out Farage the hard line Brexiters, so that even they will be begging her to step back from the abyss. As soon as they do that, she won.

Jim2007 · 25-04-2017 06:12PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

At the moment, I see her trying to out Farage the hard line Brexiters, so that even they will be begging her to step back from the abyss. As soon as they do that, she won.

The problem with playing chicken is that you may discover that the other person forgets to blink...

Sam Russell · 25-04-2017 06:12PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

At the moment, I see her trying to out Farage the hard line Brexiters, so that even they will be begging her to step back from the abyss. As soon as they do that, she won.

Did her predecessor not try that? He resigned and ran for the hills.

Fratton Fred · 25-04-2017 06:26PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Did her predecessor not try that? He resigned and ran for the hills.

She has bigger balls

What call me Dave did was tackle the thorny issue based on growing euroscepticism. You have to remember Labour had already lost a lot of votes to UKIP and this was obviously a plan to nip it in the bud.

What Theresa May has done is to grasp the nettle and say "OK, you wanted Brexit, this is what it looks like". Hence the ridiculous statements such as "Red White and Blue Brexit".

now watch Farage and co either slope off in to the sunset or start to back track leaving her in a stronger position to negotiate the Brexit she thinks is correct, which will be nothing like the full fat, deep pan stuffed crust no deal better than a bad deal Brexit she is currently talking about.

I hope.

oscarBravo · 25-04-2017 06:42PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

At the moment, I see her trying to out Farage the hard line Brexiters, so that even they will be begging her to step back from the abyss. As soon as they do that, she won.

If you think the hard line Brexiters are afraid of the abyss, you've misjudged them. When Daniel Hannan says he wants the UK out of the EU "no matter what the cost", what makes you think he doesn't mean it?

Fratton Fred · 25-04-2017 06:58PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

If you think the hard line Brexiters are afraid of the abyss, you've misjudged them. When Daniel Hannan says he wants the UK out of the EU "no matter what the cost", what makes you think he doesn't mean it?

True, but what is it that Brexiters want? I'm not sure they could agree that among themselves.

Lemming · 25-04-2017 07:13PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

True, but what is it that Brexiters want? I'm not sure they could agree that among themselves.

I'm fairly certain they would all agree on having a time-machine set to transport them backwards by about .... what year did the West India Company fold?

oscarBravo · 25-04-2017 08:31PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

True, but what is it that Brexiters want? I'm not sure they could agree that among themselves.

They want out of the EU. That's it.

Reading All Out War (at the recommendation of a poster on here), I'm struck by the fact that that's the sum total of the motivation of most of the driving forces behind Brexit. They don't want the UK out of the EU so that they can achieve... whatever; they don't want the UK out of the EU in order to prevent... something; they just want out of the EU.

For many or most of them, Euroskepticism is their core philosophy. It's not a means to an end; it is the end.

Sam Russell · 25-04-2017 08:42PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

For many or most of them, Euroskepticism is their core philosophy. It's not a means to an end; it is the end.

And they could achieve that - the end.

The end of the UK, the end of the UK economic growth for a generation, the end of UK global influence.

The END.

ancapailldorcha · 25-04-2017 08:49PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

For many or most of them, Euroskepticism is their core philosophy. It's not a means to an end; it is the end.

This is basically it. I remember having drinks with a friend last year. I'd not seen this guy in a very long time. We discussed the referendum and he suggested that I check out Daniel Hannan on Youtube. I did. Hannan talks very elegantly about freedom, capitalism and democracy. However, he's nothing more than a crusader spouting bullsh*t. Don't get me wrong, it's wonderfully eloquent, beautifully romantic bullsh*t but it's still bullsh*t. We heard a lot from him and his contemporaries about democracy and yet they've somehow no qualms with an unelected head of state, an entirely unelected House of Lords which is over 50% bigger than the House of Commons and an unelected Civil Service.

As OscarBravo has said, this was just about leaving the EU. Nothing else. All that talk of trade deals, £10 billion for the NHS and regaining control was just rhetoric to persuade the masses to vote leave. Obviously, there's a large contingent who desperately want fewer foreigners coming in as well.

The thing is, Theresa May is now left to pick up the pieces. She's calling an election because she is in thrall to the Euroskeptics in her party and may need the DUP for support as well. Given that markets rose, it seems that they think she might prefer to stay in the single market.

Bit cynical · 25-04-2017 08:58PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

They want out of the EU. That's it.

Reading All Out War (at the recommendation of a poster on here), I'm struck by the fact that that's the sum total of the motivation of most of the driving forces behind Brexit. They don't want the UK out of the EU so that they can achieve... whatever; they don't want the UK out of the EU in order to prevent... something; they just want out of the EU.

For many or most of them, Euroskepticism is their core philosophy. It's not a means to an end; it is the end.

Yes, at the core it is disdain for the EU and its institutions. The core of the opposite side, is love for those same institutions.

murphaph · 25-04-2017 09:48PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

And they could achieve that - the end.

The end of the UK, the end of the UK economic growth for a generation, the end of UK global influence.

The END.

They really could. I believe they might actually over the next decade diminish London's importance in finance to such a degree that it actually ceases to be perhaps the premier financial market in the world.

I understand that much of what the London financial markets do is agnostic to the UK's membership of the EU but if enough of it is not and has to relocate then a domino effect could take place.

oscarBravo · 25-04-2017 10:53PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

All that talk of trade deals, £10 billion for the NHS and regaining control was just rhetoric to persuade the masses to vote leave. Obviously, there's a large contingent who desperately want fewer foreigners coming in as well.

It's actually pretty breathtaking just how calculatedly the Leave campaign designed its message, from carefully avoiding talk of immigration in order to distance itself from Farage and the swivel-eyed BNP types long enough to gain some credibility, before carefully pivoting to immigration as the core message - not because the ringleaders have any issue with immigration (remember, they didn't have reasons for wanting out of the EU; they just wanted out) - but because they had determined that that was the message that would get people to vote the way they wanted them to.

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes, at the core it is disdain for the EU and its institutions. The core of the opposite side, is love for those same institutions.

I disagree (but then, I suppose I would).

I don't "love" the EU's institutions, any more than a Euroskeptic's pulse quickens with desire when they see the Houses of Parliament. The opposite to disdain for the EU is a recognition of its pragmatic value as a supranational body.

You're attempting to draw a false equivalence between the irrational distaste for the EU that drove the Leave campaign and a fictional irrational "love" for the EU that will balance the scales. There is no such equivalence. Support for EU membership is a position that's easily justified with a swathe of practical reasons; support for leaving was generally inspired by misconceptions, most of which were carefully cultivated by people who knew them to be untrue but didn't care, because the only thing that mattered to them was leaving the EU.

Remember - "no matter the cost". Those are the words of a fanatic. Pragmatic people weigh the cost. Zealots don't.

Leonard Hofstadter · 25-04-2017 11:04PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

It's actually pretty breathtaking just how calculatedly the Leave campaign designed its message, from carefully avoiding talk of immigration in order to distance itself from Farage and the swivel-eyed BNP types long enough to gain some credibility, before carefully pivoting to immigration as the core message - not because the ringleaders have any issue with immigration (remember, they didn't have reasons for wanting out of the EU; they just wanted out) - but because they had determined that that was the message that would get people to vote the way they wanted them to.

QFT. They didn't care what argument would win, so long as they achieved their goal of leaving the EU. The only reason they cared about immigration at all is for precisely that reason, they found it to be a vote winner, some of the ardent Brexiteers (Hannan) included have said there won't be any change to it at all.

That's what makes it so disgusting really, it is anti-European fundamentalism, a sense of superiority over 'Europe' even though the last time I checked, the UK was part of the continent of Europe (although I suppose it's an improvement on what they used to call it before, remember that once upon a time they used to call it 'the continent').

It's worse than being in a religious cult, they literally do not care about the consequences of the actions they've advocated. To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, they'd rather have the country poorer provided the UK was no longer in the EU.

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

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