2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Leonard Hofstadter · 23-04-2017 05:13PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Don't believe everything you read, a recent poll about party leader popularity in Scotland had Davidson way behind Sturgeon. There is not a chance the Tories will get 11 seats. They may struggle to get 2 or they may get 5 ot 6 depending how many Labour voters migrate to the Tories as diehard unionists. In fact their only Govt rep may struggle (Mundell)

Mundell could struggle as he only barely got in the last time. While I recognise that I am not based in Scotland (and you are), looking at the data I can't see any evidence that the SNP are getting any more support, if anything the data show that the Tories are doing that bit better. I'm not talking about the bias in the press - as we all know, the British press is unbelievably biased and has no problem doing the mental gymnastics where the UK staying together is good and Scotland detaching itself and becoming an independent country is a 'disaster' for Scotland but then somehow the exact same arguments for keeping the UK together are the same ones for the UK being in the EU are irrelevant and we're 'talking the country' down if we say the UK needs the EU and is better off in it.

I'm talking about what the polls show and as much and all as I'd like to be able to say I see an increase in the SNP vote, or the Scots are cheesed off over the way the Tories have treated Scotland - I don't see it. The kind of people who are upset by the whole thing were the very ones who would want an independence referendum anyway - I don't see them being able to convince other Scots more sympathetic to the Unionist cause just how bad it is for Scotland to be dictated to by London. Indeed, I was only talking to a few Scots last week and they told me they are sick to death of Sturgeon and wanting independence - which I was quite surprised by considering they knew I was Irish, but interesting to hear their perspective nonetheless.

A Dub in Glasgo · 23-04-2017 05:35PM

The split is almost 50/50 at the moment on the national question so if this election coalesces around the referendum, it is natural that the Tories (as the legitimate unionist party.. according to them) will gain. The battle from the media and the Tories is to delegitimise the mandate for a referendum if the SNP do not hold onto 95% of the seats! This is a feckin ridiculous position but it is the one punted by the Tories and the media

catbear · 23-04-2017 05:40PM

Time is on the SNPs side though. So what if the Tories win a few more seat in Scotland, they'll have to defend hard Brexit as the bad news starts to mount up.

Leonard Hofstadter · 23-04-2017 05:44PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The battle from the media and the Tories is to delegitimise the mandate for a referendum if the SNP do not hold onto 95% of the seats! This is a feckin ridiculous position but it is the one punted by the Tories and the media

I totally agree, but you know what the likes of the Telegraph, Mail and Express are capable of. Absolute hypocrites, but that's why I can't understand why there's been so little change in Scotland - I mean let's face it, May has open contempt towards Scotland. When May and the Tories talk about 'strengthening the union' what they really mean is that Scotland will do whatever England wants - it most certainly is not an equal partnership of four nations, or anything even close. If they were true unionists and really cared for Scotland, they would have gone for a soft Brexit, as they'd still be delivering on what England and Wales wanted (leaving the EU) but showing that Scotland and Northern Ireland are still two important parts of the union and keeping the close ties with Europe as a reflection of their strong remain vote.

Nonetheless, anything less than the SNP keeping 54 of their 59 seats will be spun as a 'disaster' for the SNP and 'conclusive proof' that Scots are not obsessed with independence like Sturgeon wants. The ironic thing is, I think Sturgeon is great, I find her a far more likeable character than Alex Salmond, he irritated me so much in the 2014 IndyRef and I was so glad to see independence defeated at the time. Now I see the SNP as being the only useful opposition to the Tories not just in Scotland but throughout the UK along with the Lib Dems and I think Sturgeon is a very capable and effective First Minister and I would probably vote for independence were I resident in Scotland, although I'd be far more likely to campaign and do something about it were the SNP to commit to joining at least the EEA and ultimately the EU.

Valord · 23-04-2017 07:21PM

I haven't really followed much UK politics since the Brexit vote. Can anyone explain to me why Labour are doing so completely dire in the polls? I understand Brexit passed, so a majority in the UK are for it, but it doesn't really seem like the entire public has decided in the meantime that they're all in for doubling-down on a hard Brexit, yet the party who are pursuing it are doing far better than they were when they came to power in 2015. Are people very happy with how May is handling it or are they just incredibly put-off by Corbyn?

murphaph · 23-04-2017 07:23PM

Corbyn ist unelectable for a very many people.

A Dub in Glasgo · 23-04-2017 07:26PM

Valord wrote: »

I haven't really followed much UK politics since the Brexit vote. Can anyone explain to me why Labour are doing so completely dire in the polls? I understand Brexit passed, so a majority in the UK are for it, but it doesn't really seem like the entire public has decided in the meantime that they're all in for doubling-down on a hard Brexit, yet the party who are pursuing it are doing far better than they were when they came to power in 2015. Are people very happy with how May is handling it or are they just incredibly put-off by Corbyn?

The LP have went along with almost all the Tory policies and votes in the HoC and coupled with Corbyn polarising the public, people seem to be deiciding that why bother vote Labour as a Tory proxy when you can vote for the real deal

catbear · 23-04-2017 07:29PM

Valord wrote: »

I understand Brexit passed, so a majority in the UK are for it, but it doesn't really seem like the entire public has decided in the meantime that they're all in for doubling-down on a hard Brexit, yet the party who are pursuing it are doing far better than they were when they came to power in 2015. Are people very happy with how May is handling it or are they just incredibly put-off by Corbyn?

May is calling this election now because Corbyn has alienated the 60%+ of labour voters that voted Remain. He really has left her a open goal and anyone in her position would be mad not to take such a gift.

Valord · 23-04-2017 07:36PM

murphaph wrote: »

Corbyn ist unelectable for a very many people.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The LP have went along with almost all the Tory policies and votes in the HoC and coupled with Corbyn polarising the public, people seem to be deiciding that why bother vote Labour as a Tory proxy when you can vote for the real deal

catbear wrote: »

May is calling this election now because Corbyn has alienated the 60%+ of labour voters that voted Remain. He really has left her a open goal and anyone in her position would be mad not to take such a gift.

What is it that's so repulsive about Corbyn? Is it mostly his Eurosceptic stances? I don't know a whole lot about the guy, except that he's pretty far-left by UK standards and that he only very half-heartedly fought for remain. Or is he loathed for reasons outside that?

And why haven't Labour tried to replace him if he's such a poison to the party?

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2017 07:38PM

Valord wrote: »

And why haven't Labour tried to replace him if he's such a poison to the party?

They have. Repeatedly.

Problem is that a lot of young people joined the party and voted for him. Every time there is an election, they vote him in as leader again.

devnull · 23-04-2017 07:41PM

Pretty much, the problem is that these people are not the people who often go out and vote when it comes to elections and on top of that the opinion of the people who are voting at leadership elections are completely distanced from the Parliamentary Labour Party, a lot of these supporters are also vocal of anyone who disagrees with Corbyn and it's not helped by the Momentum Pressure Group.

There's just a total disconnect between the people like ancapailldorcha talks about, the MP's, the Parliamentary Labour Party and the Leadership, they're all pulling in different ways and there is an ongoing battle between the left and center wings of the party that somehow all manage to stay together but none of them really want to be together, realistically a divorce will have to happen or for the likes of Corbyn and his controlling section to give up, but I think they will have to force him out.

And the problem is there is nothing to suggest if he does resign or is forced out, they won't just vote another one of his close pals in to replace him, I keep saying it again and again but realistically a divorce is going to be needed most likely.

Valord · 23-04-2017 07:43PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They have. Repeatedly.

Problem is that a lot of young people joined the party and voted for him. Every time there is an election, they vote him in as leader again.

Aren't the British youth also generally the age group who were the most likely to favour the EU as well though? What makes them like Corbyn so much? Is he sort of like a British Bernie Sanders?

catbear · 23-04-2017 07:43PM

Valord wrote: »

What is it that's so repulsive about Corbyn? Is it mostly his Eurosceptic stances?

And why haven't Labour tried to replace him if he's such a poison to the party?

If you saw his campaigning for the Remain vote you would have seen that he was almost apologetic for having to mouth the party line, not surprising when his voting history in parliament has always been anti-EEC/EC/EU.

Another thing to remember is that Labour left the leadership race open for anyone who paid £3 membership to vote, that was an another open goal for anyone who wanted to scupper Labour with an unelectable leader.

ancapailldorcha · 23-04-2017 07:45PM

Valord wrote: »

Aren't the British youth also generally the age group who were the most likely to favour the EU as well though? What makes them like Corbyn so much? Is he sort of like a British Bernie Sanders?

They feel ignored, partly because they don't vote. Corbyn has promised things like free University, to protect the NHS, opposing free trade, boosting trade unions, etc.... He would be to the left of Sanders in the US.

There is a bit of a clash in terms of younger people being more likely to vote remain. However, his core supporters are very left wing and are likely dubious of the EU as an institution. It's the only way to explain how he actually won a second leadership election last year with an even bigger majority.

Valord · 23-04-2017 07:49PM

catbear wrote: »

If you saw his campaigning for the Remain vote you would have seen that he was almost apologetic for having to mouth the party line, not surprising when his voting history in parliament has always been anti-EEC/EC/EU.

Another thing to remember is that Labour left the leadership race open for anyone who paid £3 membership to vote, that was an another open goal for anyone who wanted to scupper Labour with an unelectable leader.

I do remember following it at the time, and you'd have been almost led to believe that the two biggest parties in the UK were the Tories and UKIP for how much you saw of Labour. I just didn't realise it hurt them so much in the long run and I'm surprised to see that if Corbyn's lack of enthusiasm for staying is what's turned people away, why the Tories (who were the ones who gave them Brexit) seem to be reaping the benefits.

I assume this £3 membership thing is a recent invention by the way you're describing it and that the Tories don't do something similar.

Chester Copperpot · 23-04-2017 07:55PM

Tory members covertly joined and keep voting for Corbyn ... maybe not ... but it would be pretty effective for them to have orchestrated such a situation

catbear · 23-04-2017 07:56PM

Valord wrote: »

I assume this ?3 membership thing is a recent invention by the way you're describing it and that the Tories don't do something similar.

I think it came in Milliband was party leader.

LordSutch · 23-04-2017 08:04PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Don't believe everything you read, a recent poll about party leader popularity in Scotland had Davidson way behind Sturgeon. There is not a chance the Tories will get 11 seats. They may struggle to get 2 or they may get 5 ot 6 depending how many Labour voters migrate to the Tories as diehard unionists. In fact their only Govt rep may struggle (Mundell)

Will be interesting to revisit this post on the 9th of June.

devnull · 23-04-2017 08:05PM

They changed the old vote which was 33% based on unions 33% on members and 33% on those elected I believe, David Miliband won the later two but got beat by unions, hence how they ended up with Ed rather than David.

murphaph · 23-04-2017 08:20PM

LordSutch wrote: »

Will be interesting to revisit this post on the 9th of June.

Yeah I can see it from the perspective of a Scottish unionist (of which there are still very many, roughly half the electorate) who is looking for a credible alternative to the SNP.

Labour are all at sea as we all know.

It's not inconceivable that the Tories could become the party of unionism in Scotland, forever shifting Scottish politics from the traditional left/right divide to a nat/unionist divide as has long been the case in NI.

Brexit has changed everything including making the Tories realistically electable in Scotland again. It's quite amazing really.

Leonard Hofstadter · 23-04-2017 08:28PM

catbear wrote: »

If you saw his campaigning for the Remain vote you would have seen that he was almost apologetic for having to mouth the party line, not surprising when his voting history in parliament has always been anti-EEC/EC/EU.

Another thing to remember is that Labour left the leadership race open for anyone who paid £3 membership to vote, that was an another open goal for anyone who wanted to scupper Labour with an unelectable leader.

QFT.

Labour may have the highest number of members of any political party in the UK, but they're all the usual bunch of lefty lunatics that would make Paul Murphy blush with their daftness.

Plenty of Corbynistas were unhappy about his tokenistic campaigning for the Remain vote as well - but unless Labour comes back with say 150 seats they won't dump him - just as there are FF and FG familes in Ireland, there is a substantial proportion of the British electorate who always votes Labour and will stand by them no matter what (the same goes for the Conservatives, too, it must be pointed out).

Anyway, the French election has proven to be very interesting, LePen couldn't come first in the first round, despite (until very recently) being widely predicted to do so, Macron is almost certainly going to be the next President of France and he is at best hostile towards Britain, sure only the other week he was in London and openly talking about getting companies to relocate to Paris, so today was definitely not a good day for the Brexiteers.

Once the French election is sorted there is no real anti-EU threat for quite some time so while on the one hand it will allow the EU to be more pragmatic (because if there was a real threat to the future of the bloc then any give towards Britain would immediately be seized on by the Eurosceptic populists), it also strengthens the EU's hand against Britain as it's proof that the EU is very much here to stay and the electorates in the rest of Europe are committed to staying in the EU so they'll be more willing to accept pain for the EU in order to make things worse for Britain knowing they'll be able to get away with it.

As time goes by there is more and more evidence that the Brexiteers were wrong and the remainers were right but it will all sadly be too late for Britain as the leave voters have their fingers in their ears and are living in la-la land and will return the Tories with a large majority. In all fairness, I sort of want Mrs May to get a decent majority as we badly need to see the end of Corbyn and get a decent opposition who won't give the Tories a blank cheque to do whatever the hell they want.

A Dub in Glasgo · 23-04-2017 09:56PM

LordSutch wrote: »

Will be interesting to revisit this post on the 9th of June.

No problem with this although I will be in Salou, Spain for a bit of a holiday

Zubeneschamali · 24-04-2017 10:47AM

Corbyn is also a reaction against the Blairite faction in the Labour Party. Blair took the party right into the centre, won elections, stacked the Westminster benches with like minded centrists and then destroyed the whole project by backing the Iraq war in defiance of everyone with a conscience never mind a hint of left wing views.

As a result, the parliamentary party is tainted. 66 of Labour's current 229 MPs voted for the Iraq war. Many more are more recent arrivals from the Blairite wing which has never really owned that epic mistake.

devnull · 24-04-2017 02:03PM

Corbyn in Scotland campaigning to the converted trade unions, saying he will never apologies for the closeness in which he is to them and they are part of the Labour DNA, and they will repeal the trade union act.

A Little Pony · 24-04-2017 02:08PM

SNP won't clean up this election, they will lose a number of seats, Tories will gain 380-400 seats, Labour will take a tanking.

I'm voting DUP.

Sam Russell · 24-04-2017 02:15PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

SNP won't clean up this election, they will lose a number of seats, Tories will gain 380-400 seats, Labour will take a tanking.

I'm voting DUP.

If you are voting DUP, then you cannot vote Tory, SNP or Labour.

A Little Pony · 24-04-2017 02:26PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

SNP won't clean up this election, they will lose a number of seats, Tories will gain 380-400 seats, Labour will take a tanking.

I'm voting DUP.

If you are voting DUP, then you cannot vote Tory, SNP or Labour.

So? I'm voting for stronger Unionism for this election.

BoatMad · 24-04-2017 05:08PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

So? I'm voting for stronger Unionism for this election.

stronger then what ...., its likely to be similar numbers as before , "as the dreary spires ......."

BoatMad · 24-04-2017 05:09PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

SNP won't clean up this election, they will lose a number of seats, Tories will gain 380-400 seats, Labour will take a tanking.

Th only interesting thing of this election , will be the result for the SNP as this election for them is a proxy Indyref2

May is very very clever

BoatMad · 24-04-2017 05:11PM

captainspeed wrote: »

QFT.

Labour may have the highest number of members of any political party in the UK, but they're all the usual bunch of lefty lunatics that would make Paul Murphy blush with their daftness.

Plenty of Corbynistas were unhappy about his tokenistic campaigning for the Remain vote as well - but unless Labour comes back with say 150 seats they won't dump him - just as there are FF and FG familes in Ireland, there is a substantial proportion of the British electorate who always votes Labour and will stand by them no matter what (the same goes for the Conservatives, too, it must be pointed out).

Anyway, the French election has proven to be very interesting, LePen couldn't come first in the first round, despite (until very recently) being widely predicted to do so, Macron is almost certainly going to be the next President of France and he is at best hostile towards Britain, sure only the other week he was in London and openly talking about getting companies to relocate to Paris, so today was definitely not a good day for the Brexiteers.

Once the French election is sorted there is no real anti-EU threat for quite some time so while on the one hand it will allow the EU to be more pragmatic (because if there was a real threat to the future of the bloc then any give towards Britain would immediately be seized on by the Eurosceptic populists), it also strengthens the EU's hand against Britain as it's proof that the EU is very much here to stay and the electorates in the rest of Europe are committed to staying in the EU so they'll be more willing to accept pain for the EU in order to make things worse for Britain knowing they'll be able to get away with it.

As time goes by there is more and more evidence that the Brexiteers were wrong and the remainers were right but it will all sadly be too late for Britain as the leave voters have their fingers in their ears and are living in la-la land and will return the Tories with a large majority. In all fairness, I sort of want Mrs May to get a decent majority as we badly need to see the end of Corbyn and get a decent opposition who won't give the Tories a blank cheque to do whatever the hell they want.

yes and Mays unassailable position will allow her to drive through a softer Brexit then if her majority was as current

its always the extremes that can afford to do a deal , not the middle ground, NI shows that

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Comments