North Eastern Snowstorm 14th/15th March 2017, United States

It's one busy TAF for JFK...heavy and blowing snow starting in the next few hours.

KJFK 140542Z 1406/1512 07013KT 1SM -SN OVC015
FM140700 06016G25KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC009
FM140800 05026G33KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG OVC007
FM141000 05026G38KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV004
FM141200 05034G44KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV004
FM141600 03025G33KT 1SM +RA BR OVC007
FM141900 36025G33KT 4SM -RA BR OVC015
FM142000 32028G43KT 4SM -SN OVC015
FM142300 30024G37KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN045
FM150200 29021G31KT P6SM VCSH BKN035
FM150500 29017G25KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060

Flying in to JFK tomorrow evening, likely to be any disruption?

Tyson Fury wrote: »

Flying in to JFK tomorrow evening, likely to be any disruption?

Nope.

Seems the forecast had a last minute downgrade for NYC.

The airlines didn't seem particularly hesitant in cancelling flights.

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes it became more mixed further north than they said. Originally they were forecasting 8- 12 inches in much of PA, but the precipitation became mixed.

I noticed early this morning that yr.no were not making much of this event for NY and seemingly, they were right.

Heavy snow fell all across PA except in the southeast corner and in parts of upstate NY (Binghamton had 31.0 inches), northern and western New England (Portland Maine had 18 inches), Vermont generally 15-30 inches. The storm started with 5 to 8 inches of snow in NYC which then turned to sleet and then rain, back to light snow before ending. It was seen as something of a bust in the larger cities but kept people from driving out of town which was good as many roads were closed. The total at BGM is probably an all-time record for there and had no lake effect component but further amounts on today's date may do so.

It was a tricky forecast near the coast and everyone involved was quite aware of the potential for a busted forecast, as both thickness and 850 mb temps were almost right on the marginal values at the best time for accumulating snow and a "taint" was always expected, the problem was actually with all the models showing too much total QPF which led to logic errors in terms of how much of that might be sleet, as sleet is counted as snow on a somewhat different ratio basis than actual snow. (3:1 ratio instead of the range from 8 to 15 that is normally applied to snowfall conversions from liquid equivalent).

Then there was a slight deviation west of consensus track to make things that much more error-prone.

Snowfall rates in upstate NY and VT were described by long-time weather watchers as exceptional for non-lake effect.

Sit down and pour a stiff brandy before reading this ...

(from NWS Binghamton, if you're not aware, location is in NY state about 50 miles north of the northeast corner of PA) ...

...ALL TIME 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY...

A 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL OCCURRED AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT
FROM MARCH 14TH TO MARCH 15TH. A TOTAL OF 31.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
BETWEEN 3 AM ON THE 14TH TO 1 AM ON THE 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF 23 INCHES SET IN FEBRUARY 1961.

OUR SEASONAL SNOWFALL NOW STANDS AT 127.7 INCHES WHICH IS 3.6 INCHES
SHY OF THE 131.3 INCHES ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL SET IN 1993-94.

THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO LAST WINTER WHERE ONLY 32 INCHES FELL
FOR ENTIRE 2015-16 SNOW SEASON. THIS WAS A RECORD LOW SNOWFALL.

NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT IS 83.4
INCHES. RECORDS AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT GO BACK TO 1951.

(note from MTC -- since they posted that, 4.0" more fell on 15th, so that seasonal record is achieved now too).

And Burlington VT also had a total close to 30"