2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Black Swan · 02-11-2016 01:03PM

The presidential race has been tightening up with only 1-week to go, which has been typical with recent past presidential election years at this time in the cycle. FiveThirtyEight has tightened up too, with their polls-only forecast at Clinton 71.2% and Trump 28.8%.

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-11-2016 01:42PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well aware of all those things.

But I think there will certainly became drop off in black voting because many just voted Obama because he was black.

To argue otherwise is to ignore racism in America.

So if a black person(s) decide not to vote this is racism? Where is your proof that the drop is because both candidates are white? Personally if I lived in the states I wouldn't vote either, does that make me a racist also?

I think you should look up the term racism to try better understand it's meaning

Amerika · 02-11-2016 01:44PM

Think Paddy Power is now regretting their decision to pay out early for the bets on Clinton?

Zubeneschamali · 02-11-2016 02:02PM

Amerika wrote: »

Think Paddy Power is now regretting their decision to pay out early for the bets on Clinton?

No - I think she will win with a 3-4% margin in the popular vote.

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-11-2016 02:03PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

So if a black person(s) decide not to vote this is racism? Where is your proof that the drop is because both candidates are white? Personally if I lived in the states I wouldn't vote either, does that make me a racist also?

I think you should look up the term racism to try better understand it's meaning

I'm saying the increase in black voter turn out in 2008 and 2012 was due to black candidate in the field.

I'd expect black turn out this time to be closer to what we saw pre Obama.

Zubeneschamali · 02-11-2016 02:08PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'd expect black turn out this time to be closer to what we saw pre Obama.

i think it will be a bit better than that - Clinton served in Obama's cabinet, has been endorsed by Obama and Michelle Obama, and has even had prominent Republicans say Clinton would be 4 more years of Obama.

Lower than the turnout for Obama, yes, but not as low as John Kerry or Al Gore.

Black Swan · 02-11-2016 02:42PM

97% of 450 high school and university student forecasters predict a Hillary Clinton win in a contest sponsored by the American Statistical Association. This 97% was not a probability estimate, rather just a percentage of those that forecast Clinton over Trump. I guess we will see how well these students did in 1-week.

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-11-2016 02:45PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm saying the increase in black voter turn out in 2008 and 2012 was due to black candidate in the field.

I'd expect black turn out this time to be closer to what we saw pre Obama.

So how does this equate to your claim of racism?

Black Swan · 02-11-2016 02:55PM

Does anyone know if Jimmy Fallon, star of Tonight Show, will use his panel of puppies to predict the match-up between Clinton and Trump, just like he did for Super Bowl 50?

Amerika · 02-11-2016 03:01PM

Black Swan wrote: »

97% of 450 high school and university student forecasters predict a Hillary Clinton win in a contest sponsored by the American Statistical Association. This 97% was not a probability estimate, rather just a percentage of those that forecast Clinton over Trump. I guess we will see how well these students did in 1-week.

I have a brainwashed bleeding-heart liberal kid in high school, with minimal understanding of politics other than the vile left-wing nonsense her teachers spout. She threatened to move out until after the election if I put up my Trump/Pence sign in the front yard. High school students would probably have put Bernie Sanders at 99% chance of a win.

Overheal · 02-11-2016 03:08PM

Amerika wrote: »

I have a brainwashed bleeding-heart liberal kid in high school, with minimal understanding of politics other than the vile left-wing nonsense her teachers spout. She threatened to move out until after the election if I put up my Trump/Pence sign in the front yard. High school students would probably have put Bernie Sanders at 99% chance of a win.

:rolleyes:

I love this fiction that higher education turns people into democrats or something. Isn't it strange how there are so many college educated people who still vote conservative? Maybe they're all RINOs eh

Black Swan · 02-11-2016 03:13PM

Amerika wrote: »

I have a brainwashed bleeding-heart liberal kid in high school, with minimal understanding of politics other than the vile left-wing nonsense her teachers spout. She threatened to move out until after the election if I put up my Trump/Pence sign in the front yard. High school students would probably have put Bernie Sanders at 99% chance of a win.

Not sure about Trump education demographics for high school students Amerika, but it's been reported that those with college degrees or higher education (graduate) favour 52% Clinton vs. 29% Trump, one of the largest divides in decades of presidential elections.

RobertKK · 02-11-2016 03:16PM

Currently momentum is with Trump, and if Trump doesn't suffer anymore significant issues with his campaign, I think he will win.

Early voting according to CNN, show Clinton is currently leading in Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado, while Trump is leading in Florida, Ohio, Utah, Arizona.

The North Carolina figures show black voter numbers are down, younger voter numbers are down, and independent voter numbers are way up.
When Obama won but lost North Carolina it showed him leading in early voting, I am going to call North Carolina for Trump, I don't believe Hillary has been able to motivate the Obama base enough.

The signs from the Clinton camp are negative as they have started to campaign again in states they thought they had wrapped up with campaign funding and campaign trips were pulled from certain states only to be renewed.

It has been claimed the biggest motivator for Republicans to go and vote is not Trump, but the total dislike for the Clintons.
I had this elderly cousin who is now dead but was an American citizen, his daughter had the 3rd highest political position in Connecticut, he was a Republican voter. Anyway he would visit when over and one time he came he went on a rant about the Clintons. It gave me insight into how unpopular the Clintons are with some people. He really really disliked them.
Now in this election, I think when push comes to shove for a lot of people, they just can't vote for a Clinton.
Trump while a terrible choice for the Republicans is going to benefit from his rival being a Clinton and I think the FBI probe into the latest emails discovery will have enough people turn away from Clinton and either not vote, or vote for Trump/someone else.

This has been a strange year and I don't think the winds of change have stopped blowing.

Overheal · 02-11-2016 03:19PM

RobertKK wrote: »

It has been claimed the biggest motivator for Republicans to go and vote is not Trump, but the total dislike for the Clintons.
I had this elderly cousin who is now dead but was an American citizen, his daughter had the 3rd highest political position in Connecticut, he was a Republican voter. Anyway he would visit when over and one time he came he went on a rant about the Clintons. It gave me insight into how unpopular the Clintons are with some people. He really really disliked them.
Now in this election, I think when push comes to shove for a lot of people, they just can't vote for a Clinton.
Trump while a terrible choice for the Republicans is going to benefit from his rival being a Clinton and I think the FBI probe into the latest emails discovery will have enough people turn away from Clinton and either not vote, or vote for Trump/someone else.

Hmm, something I completely agree with you on.

Had it been Sanders, I think the problem for him would have been the negative connotations of "democratic socialism" that would have scared the bejeezus out of the conservative base.

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-11-2016 03:19PM

Black Swan wrote: »

97% of 450 high school and university student forecasters predict a Hillary Clinton win in a contest sponsored by the American Statistical Association.

Asking '450 people' out of 330million in a sponsored survey and seeking correlation, is largely meaningless.

I'd be more focused on the daily MXN rate than anything else. Considering a big wall and new NAFTA Agreement is looming, rather than chit-chat around high school lockers.

The MXN said hello to 19.40 early this am, and Mexican equities (EWW) just seen it's biggest outflow (since 2013) on Tuesday.
The iShares 1-3 year Treasury (BOND) ETF was also heavily bought as SHY investors got even more nervous.

Overheal · 02-11-2016 03:22PM

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

Asking '450 people' out of 330million in a sponsored survey and seeking correlation, is largely meaningless.

But one liberal leaning college student who won't stay at home because of a yard sign out of 330 million people and suddenly all college students are communists :cool:

/okay I'm done with that.

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-11-2016 03:25PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

So how does this equate to your claim of racism?

The increase in black voters went up in 2008 and 2012 because a certain amount of black people voted for Obama because he was black, nothing else.

Its like me voting for McCain or Romney because he was white.

BorneTobyWilde · 02-11-2016 03:28PM

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also close. Both + 4 average for Clinton and falling
http://www.270towin.com/maps/k44np

Trump can lose Florida if he was to take those two states

Amerika · 02-11-2016 03:31PM

Black Swan wrote: »

Not sure about Trump education demographics for high school students Amerika, but it's been reported that those with college degrees or higher education (graduate) favour 52% Clinton vs. 29% Trump, one of the largest divides in decades of presidential elections.

College students favor Hillary? Shocked I am (not really since most colleges have increasingly become liberal indoctrination centers).

http://townhall.com/columnists/danieldoherty/2011/11/19/avoiding_leftist_indoctrination_at_american_colleges_and_universities

Permabear · 02-11-2016 03:34PM

This post has been deleted.

Akrasia · 02-11-2016 03:36PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The increase in black voters went up in 2008 and 2012 because a certain amount of black people voted for Obama because he was black, nothing else.

Its like me voting for McCain or Romney because he was white.

A lot of orange people are voting for Trump who never voted before, i predict a record high orange turnout in this election. Further evidence of a deeply racist American society...

Of course African american voting turnout is inflated by a black candidate who promised change and new opportunities for black people.

This election we have a racist who refused to allow black people rent in his properties, running against an entitled white woman who takes the black vote for granted because shes in the same party as Obama.

Hillary offers nothing to inspire poor minority voters. It's not racist to not want to vote for her.

TheDoctor · 02-11-2016 03:38PM

6 more days, just 6 more days.........

Black Swan · 02-11-2016 03:44PM

Amerika wrote: »

College students favor Hillary? Shocked I am (not really since most colleges have increasingly become liberal indoctrination centers).

Overheal wrote: »

I love this fiction that higher education turns people into democrats or something. Isn't it strange how there are so many college educated people who still vote conservative? Maybe they're all RINOs eh

Broad sweeping generalisations about anything generally suffer from spuriousness, and this may apply to the political orientation of most universities, and especially between departments like business and others.

Having said that, I'm an alumni of USC (University of Southern California), where they claim to have more Porsche, Mercedes, and BMWs per parking lot square inch than any other university in America, and host a faculty and 44,000 student body that's generally capitalistic. There are certainly other universities in the nation that "follow the money" like USC Trojans, but I do not know the balance between profits vs people for American universities. The tuition was astronomical, I don't own a car, and I could not have attended USC without scholarships and grants. In terms of the 2016 election, the new USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Tracking Poll has shown Trump leading most of the time, although their fixed n=3,000 original sample, weighting scheme, and analytical model may be problematic. I guess we will see in 1-week if the USC poll was better at presidential forecasting than most of the others?

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-11-2016 03:46PM

Akrasia wrote: »

A lot of orange people are voting for Trump who never voted before, i predict a record high orange turnout in this election. Further evidence of a deeply racist American society...

Of course African american voting turnout is inflated by a black candidate who promised change and new opportunities for black people.

This election we have a racist who refused to allow black people rent in his properties, running against an entitled white woman who takes the black vote for granted because shes in the same party as Obama.

Hillary offers nothing to inspire poor minority voters. It's not racist to not want to vote for her.

So if some hillbilly guy comes to this stage and is offering change and new opportunity for hillbilly people would poor white southerners be racists for voting for him in their droves instead of his black opponent ?

Amerika · 02-11-2016 03:46PM

TheDoctor wrote: »

6 more days, just 6 more days.........

...And 1,000 more political phone calls I'll receive. The phone is constantly ringing every evening. I'm actually getting to talk to some of the politicians on the phone, rather than just the standard robo-calls I'm accustomed to. Spoke to US Congressman Charlie Dent the other day. Told him I'm not too happy with him not supporting the GOP ticket.

Amerika · 02-11-2016 03:51PM

Black Swan wrote: »

Broad sweeping generalisations about anything generally suffer from spuriousness, and this may apply to the political orientation of most universities, and especially between departments like business and others.

Having said that, I'm an alumni of USC (University of Southern California), where they claim to have more Porsche, Mercedes, and BMWs per parking lot square inch than any other university in America, and host a faculty and 44,000 student body that's generally capitalistic. There are certainly other universities in the nation that "follow the money" like USC Trojans, but I do not know the balance between profits vs people for American universities. The tuition was astronomical, I don't own a car, and I could not have attended USC without scholarships and grants. In terms of the 2016 election, the new USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Tracking Poll has shown Trump leading most of the time, although their fixed n=3,000 original sample, weighting scheme, and analytical model may be problematic. I guess we will see in 1-week if the USC poll was better at presidential forecasting than most of the others?

Did those college students buy their own Porsches, Mercedes, and BMWs? Or did they get them from mommy and daddy?

Billy86 · 02-11-2016 04:01PM

Black Swan wrote: »

In terms of the 2016 election, the new USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Tracking Poll has shown Trump leading most of the time, although their fixed n=3,000 original sample, weighting scheme, and analytical model may be problematic. I guess we will see in 1-week if the USC poll was better at presidential forecasting than most of the others?

One hugenflaw in their weighting is that there is one single 19 year old black guy I nchi ago who is voting Trump, and due to how they are weighting demographical breakdowns his input is equal to if I recall, 315 standard participants.

Permabear · 02-11-2016 04:06PM

This post has been deleted.

Sofa Spud · 02-11-2016 04:07PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also close. Both + 4 average for Clinton and falling
http://www.270towin.com/maps/k44np

Trump can lose Florida if he was to take those two states

That's an interesting map to play around with - just filled it in, taking any state that Nate Silver ( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now ) has Hillary at less than 70% chance to win as as toss-up - Clinton comes out with 273 and Trump at 215, with 50 votes in the toss-up states - NV. NC and FL.

WI and PA are both showing as 77/78% chance for Hillary - Wi only has one poll result since the latest email hoohaa and PA has had none, so it'll be Friday potentially before we can get a better idea of how it will pan out, but it's still a big mountain for Trump to climb....

Black Swan · 02-11-2016 04:08PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The nebulous FBI director statement about emails a few days ago may or may have been a factor should it have occurred before contest deadline, so who knows for sure? The same could be said for the 7 October 2016 Trump sexual assault tape, and if or not this may have been cause to influence this high school and college student presidential forecasting contest. We can both guess all we like from our armchairs, but without more information from the American Statistical Association regarding this contest they hosted, we don't really know. Maybe someone can research the ASA contest details to clarify, but I don't have time at the moment.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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