Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016

Tropical Storm Gaston looking impressive set to become a Hurricane and interestingly taking a W / NW track, could it head up this way I wonder?

...GASTON STILL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.7N 53.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 34.6 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of
days with a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Gaston
should become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Karl still under the influence of an upper low with wind sheer preventing it developing at the moment, plodding along with wind speeds at about 35 kts for the next 24 hes or so.

The global models indicate that
the shear should relax in the next 24 to 36 hours allowing a slight
strengthening in that period. As Karl rounds the mid-level ridge
it will find itself in a more favorable environment with warm
SSTs and lower shear. An increased rate of intensification should
take place in the 48 to 72 hour time frame, and Karl is expected to
reach hurricane strength by the end of that period

Karls predicted track by the models would have it well west of Ireland at this stage.

Tropical Storm Karl set to become a Hurricane shortly. Passing over surface water temperatures of 29-30C for the next 24hrs and wind sheer to decrease. The center just passing to the passing to the E of Bermuda must be of big concern there. Set to accelerate its forward motion in the next 24 hrs and even faster by 72hrs.

Currently 50kts
Centre 992mb
Set to increase to 65 kts by 24 hrs
Set to strengthen further to about 48 hrs and peak at that and begin to weaken to extratropical after that before merging with another extratropical low.



See the size of Bermuda compared to Karl

The NHC gave it's last Public Advisory today stating Post Tropical Karl set to become absorbed by a larger extratropical storm on Monday. Found the discussion on the cyclones cloud pattern resembling a baroclinic leaf interesting ( had to look that one up ). I have added a close up of what I presume to be 'the leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,indicative of cold-air advection' and a chart showing 850mb winds.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 251434
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

While Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier,
the convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased in
coverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf,
which is the typical satellite signature of a system that has become
a frontal wave. The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,
indicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the
low-level center. Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space
diagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being
declared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is
held at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and
the cyclone's rapid translational speed. Global models show Post-
Tropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over
the North Atlantic after about 24 hours.

A series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was
rapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
shear. Since this has made finding the location of the low-level
center difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain
055/42. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit
further toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before
losing its identity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 39.9N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 52.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Expected to be a Tropical Storm soon , the models predicting this to get very big . The East coast of America will be watching this one to see how it develops.