FPL Team Value 2016/2017

Colking · 23-08-2016 1:41pm #1

I saw a request on another thread about Team Value and chasing/not chasing it and decided to start a new thread for this year.

I consciously chose last year to heavily chase value and it killed my OR. I'm hoping to take a more balanced approach this year and see how it goes.

Last year was a bit of an anomaly though as Mahrez, Vardy, Payet, Delle Alli, as must haves and Deeney, Ighalo, Wilson must haves at different stages. This meant that you could have a lot of cash and it was not as effective.

This year is shaping up slightly different with Kun, Ibra, Hazard all looking like must haves and when Giroud comes back for Arsenal maybe Sanchez will be also.

I posted regularly in the 2015/2016 Value thread so I could use it as a comparison this year.

Below is the warts and all progression, starting with the last post of the season where I had made a great RV of £9M but average OR of 91k

I finished the season with an OR of 80k but I definitely lost serious points by an over adherence to value chasing.

Let it be a salutary lesson to me this season

Colking wrote: »

03-05-2016

Posting for Next Season as a comparison

TV: 110.7
RV: 109.0
OR: 91K

Colking wrote: »

16-03-2016

It lets you seriously invest in GK and DEF if you want, while still having a template mid and attack.

I need to find a better policy for next year though. That value has cost me 92 points in hits (not the most accurate metric but a significant one).

Time will tell over the rest of the season if it can help to pay it back but I doubt it.

Colking wrote: »

16-03-2016

I think next year there will be less hunting of value and more concentrating on not taking hits:

TV: 111.4
RV: 108.7
OR: 124K

Colking wrote: »

24-02-2016

Doesn't look like much has changed in a month

TV: 111.3
RV: 108.0
OR: 156K

High RV doesn't yet seem important. It might help out a bit over the next few doubles and skinny's (to use a phrase somebody coined earlier )

Colking wrote: »

01-02-2016

TV: 111.0
RV: 107.1
OR: 125K

De Bruyne getting injured has put a dampener on my plans. I was planning on

De Bruyne, Sanchez, Ozil, Alli, Payet
Kane, Lukaku, Aguero

Might take a look at Hazard instead. As FHFC has pointed out it could be an option to burn value during double gameweeks/blanks when you wouldn't be afraid to rotate out built up value.

Colking wrote: »

15-01-2016

TV 110.4
RV 106.4
OR 314K

It's nice to be able to afford expensive players but not many of them are really firing this season so it's a bit like being a millionaire on a desert island :pac:

If Sanchez comes back to the fold in good form and the likes of Hazard and other expensive flops then it could create some potential differential.

Colking wrote: »

09-12-2015

We'll see how these values fluctuate over Christmas

TV: 107.6
RV: 104.9

OR: 165k

Colking wrote: »

23-11-2015

TV: 105.9
RV: 104.0

OR: 81k

Colking wrote: »

09-11-2015

TV 106.1
RV 103.6
OR 153K

Colking wrote: »

28-10-2015

GW 5 WC

TV : 104.0 + 1.8 Bank = 105.8

RV : 103.2

OR: 152k

Colking wrote: »

05-10-2015

No I'm sticking with Mahrez right now, will keep an eye on it though as the Tinkerman is doing his normal tinkering ........

Had Mahrez from GW2
I had Gomis and Ayew at points (made some nice cash out of them)
YaYa to KDB (had Yaya from GW2 so that was good.)
Jumped from Martial to Pelle last night (.2 there)
Gomez from Liverpool

Lost .1 on Bentaleb at the start (what can you do)

This is the rest of them

It's not too bad at this stage but there are plenty out there who have much better.

Colking wrote: »

05-10-2015

I had a rough plan to take a few more points hits than normal pre-Christmas to make RV but I might start to slow it down a little now.

TV 103.9
RV 102.2

OR 165K

Colking wrote: »

17-09-2015

Looks like you're edging it so far.

A more balanced look at it though would be to give your total resale value and Overall Rank

TV 102.8
Resale 101.0
OR 759k

Colking wrote: »

01-09-2015

WC currently underway 102.2 TV with a 100.7 Resale. Hopefully this continues to grow nicely over the next 2 weeks.

Colking wrote: »

25-08-2015

A GW3 WC was pretty good for price alright. My resale is 100.4 though with no WC. If you're prepared to take the odd -4 you can keep your TV high and keep the WC.

I've not seem prices drop this quickly and for so many players that were supposed to be semi safe before though.

If you let it the TV could really start to affect your choices of player (which would be foolish I think)

Does anyone think that we could see a return to the TV of a few seasons ago when it was normal enough to have an extra 3m upwards built up ?

Colking wrote: »

19-08-2015

£100.7 TV at moment but hoping for another .3 tonight. WC not in play.

manual_man · 23-08-2016 1:57pm

I felt i put a little too much importance on team value also. Last season was my worst to date

Father Hernandez · 23-08-2016 3:09pm

Cheers for sending on this way. Last year was a fluke year, this year I'll be looking to be a lot more balanced with transfers and TV.

100.5 at the moment and with Firmino dropping tonight, will be looking to get him out. Jaku & Amat should see me go up 0.2

Trimm Trabb · 23-08-2016 3:20pm

Last season was many tradotionally strong players worst ever season and it was not related to team value.

I think this season might see a return to reliable dominant teams - Utd and City - with 6 players from these two teams a good strategy, big hitters outscoring surprise players and premium defenders keeping clean sheets - this for me will see a return to prominence for TV. The only caveat to that is the slower pace of rises these days.

Thanks to OP for setting up the thread - will an interesting one to follow.

FHFC · 23-08-2016 4:28pm

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Last season was many tradotionally strong players worst ever season and it was not related to team value.

I think this season might see a return to reliable dominant teams - Utd and City - with 6 players from these two teams a good strategy, big hitters outscoring surprise players and premium defenders keeping clean sheets - this for me will see a return to prominence for TV. The only caveat to that is the slower pace of rises these days.

Thanks to OP for setting up the thread - will an interesting one to follow.

Yeah thanks for starting this, worth keeping an eye on IMO.

And I agreed with Timm Trabb, I think linking a bad ranking last year to chasing value is hard to prove! It depends what you are doing to chase value, I suppose. It certainly doesn't have to be done at the expense of chasing points.

The first wildcard is key if you want to maximise your team value IMO, because as demonstrated in the article I wrote preseason there is a window of around 6 weeks from now till around GW7 where a wide range of players drop value rapidly and a smaller group of players rise.

Of the rising players there are two types.

Bandwagons - I'd put Coutinho and Negredo in that category so far. Players who you are probably not going to want in your team for the long term, but who have shown form and have a few decent fixtures and are getting a short term spike in value. What these players give you if you can accommodate them in your team is that 0.2 or if you are lucky 0.4 rise (Negredo will possibly rise 0.4 by next week) which you can then bank 0.1 or .2 from. I'd not go to major lengths to get these guys in, certainly not for hits, or at the expense of player you fancy to score well who are not rising. E.g. shifting Gray for Negredo as some have been considering. If you miss out on these if won't cost you a great deal as you are only banking half their rise when you do sell. Its rare to get a decent bankable rise within a single gameweek, if going for somebody like Negredo you need to be prepared to hold for 2 or 3 weeks and hope his form continues so you can get 3 or 4 rises.

Keepers - not goalkeepers, players you are likely to want in your team for a medium or long term outlook. Probably premium players from top sides, Hazard, Shaw, Ibra the current examples. To me these are more important as if you are slow to get them in and they rise 0.2 or 0.3 then you are costing your budget an extra 0.2 or 0.3. I.e. it hits you for the full amount as you don't intend selling. If I want to keep Shaw for the foreseeable and I pay 5.7 rather than 5.5 for him it will mean I have 0.2 less to spend on the rest of my team for the foreseeable. This also applies to secure cheapies like Amat, Kingsley or Capoue as these are the foundations which you build your premium players on. If you pay 4.1 for Amat and 4.7 for Capoue thats 0.3 less to play with than someone who got them in early.

If you are interested in maximising team value a GW3 or GW4 wildcard is probably the best way to do it to ensure that
(a) you get the cheapies/keepers before they rise
(b) you don't lose more than 0.1 or 0.2 in drops
(c) you get on a few bandwagons which you can hold for 2 to 3 weeks and cash in on
(d) you may get the very occasional 0.2 riser in your wildcard week that you don't want to keep short or medium term so you can bank 0.1 straight away - but this is rare.

manual_man · 23-08-2016 4:46pm

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Last season was many tradotionally strong players worst ever season and it was not related to team value.

not sure if this was in response to me, but yeah i know last season was a bit of a freak one and many ended up worse of than they usually do, but i know myself i was putting a level of importance on price changes that i'd never done before, and in hindsight it didn't do me any favours. one of a number of factors in the end (i had an AWFUL record when it came to captain choices, never had Vardy, and took a few too many points hits)

my opinion is that T.V. is important to a point, but not to be obsessed by it. the irony of it is that if you just concentrate on having what you feel are the best players in your team, and they perform, then naturally you'll end up with a high T.V. - and high points total! that's not to say that price changes aren't important in that - i've seen more than a few in the transfers thread move early, and some taking a hit, to get Ibra into their teams, and by and large i've agreed with their moves. there's risk attached to making transfers early, but sometimes ya just gotta bite the bullet. Ibra already looks close to essential and a 0.1 swing here or there may drastically affect a manager's team if they don't move early.

patmac · 23-08-2016 6:29pm

The reason I'm holding Vardy rather than taking a -4 to get in Ibra, not too bothered with TV, going to roll over transfer till after the int break and watch Utd from behind the couch with 2 sets of rosary beads.

FHFC · 23-08-2016 10:45pm

patmac wrote: »

The reason I'm holding Vardy rather than taking a -4 to get in Ibra, not too bothered with TV, going to roll over transfer till after the int break and watch Utd from behind the couch with 2 sets of rosary beads.

I have to say, while I get that not everyone is going to put huge effort in on team value, I strongly think not bothering about it is a mistake (assuming you'refairly serious about doing well at this nonsense game).

Looking back last seasons Value thread the variation between budgets among those who did mind their value and those who didn't is 6 to 7m total valie and 4 to 5m in resale value. Thats a huge difference in the run in.

Especially for the reasons already mentioned regarding premium players seeming more essential this year.

Each to their own and all, I just couldn't get my head around throwing away a potential advantage like that.

patmac · 23-08-2016 11:03pm

FHFC wrote: »

I have to say, while I get that not everyone is going to put huge effort in on team value, I strongly think not bothering about it is a mistake (assuming you'refairly serious about doing well at this nonsense game).

Looking back last seasons Value thread the variation between budgets among those who did mind their value and those who didn't is 6 to 7m total valie and 4 to 5m in resale value. Thats a huge difference in the run in.

Especially for the reasons already mentioned regarding premium players seeming more essential this year.

Each to their own and all, I just couldn't get my head around throwing away a potential advantage like that.

I've taken it seriously for the last 2 years and TV is important but can't make it the be all and end all of the game, for me to get Ibra in for -4 is going to disrupt my team and I feel I can gamble a little early in the season also current team value is 100.6 so not too shabby and I am probably going to wildcard after the International break.

FHFC · 23-08-2016 11:11pm

patmac wrote: »

I've taken it seriously for the last 2 years and TV is important but can't make it the be all and end all of the game, for me to get Ibra in for -4 is going to disrupt my team and I feel I can gamble a little early in the season also current team value is 100.6 so not too shabby and I am probably going to wildcard after the International break.

Fair enough. But there is a lot of space between 'be all and end all" which I don't think anyone is suggesting it should be, and 'not bothering'.

If you are paying any attention to it at all it has been demonstrated that GW3 to GW6 or 7 are the most crucial times of the season. The Vardy/Ibra delay will have cost you at least 0.5m of budget by after the break.

Good luck anyhow, don't mean to preach at you, it's just a topic I have put a lot of thought into over the last 3 or 4 years playing this game.

I'm starting to regret not taking a hit to get Shaw in!

skippy15 · 23-08-2016 11:40pm

I have found that points hits really help TV overall, and something I always weighed up over the next 3/4 GW's. A lot more have worked than failed.

With Aguero/Ibra no brainers, think TV will play a big role.
Big reason why I plan to WC next week even though relatively happy with my team 4/5 changes maybe but lot to stop fallers as much as hit risers