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Tropical Storm Gaston
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24-08-2016 11:34am#1Soon to be a hurricane...is expected to approach major hurricane strength this weekend.
This looks like it will spend its tropical life as a fish - however there is continued model support for the storm to approach Ireland next weekend as a vigorous extra-tropical low.
I thought I would open this thread as i expect the media might grab hold of this soon. Expect dooms day predictions from the Express!
Here is the latest NHC track:
EC predicted for midnight Friday
Certainly one to watch and keep us interested over the next 7-10 days
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Weathercheck wrote: »Soon to be a hurricane...is expected to approach major hurricane strength this weekend.
This looks like it will spend its tropical life as a fish - however there is continued model support for the storm to approach Ireland next weekend as a vigorous extra-tropical low.
I thought I would open this thread as i expect the media might grab hold of this soon. Expect dooms day predictions from the Express!
Here is the latest NHC track:
EC predicted for midnight Friday
Certainly one to watch and keep us interested over the next 7-10 days
My guess is that it will fail to reach Ireland's shores much like ex-hurricane Joaquin last October.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Will be keeping an eye on this to see how the models perform, long way off for sure.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 16.1N 39.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.6N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 21.9N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 30.5N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 32.2N 56.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
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The models seem to be all over the place this evening as regard the strength if any Gaston would have on these shores. Gaston is decreasing speed at the moment but set to increase again on Sat to possible Hurricane force, that may influence the models differently again. At this stage looking like any other Low crossing across the Atlantic. Time will tell.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 44.4 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and some additional weakening is possible today.
However, some re-strengthening is expected to begin Friday night,
and Gaston could become a hurricane again on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).0 -
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Yaaay Weathercheck and Iancar return
Feel like I haven't seen either of you around here for a while! Bring on Gaston!
All we need now is Maquiladora.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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According to The National Hurricane Centre looks like strengthening for a few days as shear eases off and passes over warm waters and thereafter strong upper Westerlies with strong sheer and cooler SST's cause a gradual weakening. Models are varied but in general looks like dissipating or heading up towards Iceland IMO at this stage.
This run would have the remnants of Gaston heading up towards Iceland ( High pressure over Ireland keeping it well away ! )
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Meteorite58 wrote: »According to The National Hurricane Centre looks like strengthening for a few days as shear eases off and passes over warm waters and thereafter strong upper Westerlies with strong sheer and cooler SST's cause a gradual weakening. Models are varied but in general looks like dissipating or heading up towards Iceland IMO at this stage.
This run would have the remnants of Gaston heading up towards Iceland ( High pressure over Ireland keeping it well away ! )
I knew it wouldn't come for Ireland.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Hurricane Gaston Reforms in Atlantic Ocean. Just keeping an eye on this purely as a learning exercise to observe its lifespan and how well the models perform. So a hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 105 mph atm and possibly strengthening further in the next few days before weakening on its NE'ly track.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 281436
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016
The eye was fairly distinct a few hours ago, but recently it has
become slightly cloud-filled and the inner-core convection has
become less symmetrical. The current intensity is set at 90 kt,
in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT
values from UW-CIMSS. Assuming the slight degradation of the inner
core structure to be temporary, a little more strengthening is
expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Gaston should remain in a
low to moderate vertical wind shear environment for the next
couple of days, which would allow the hurricane to more or less
maintain its intensity through 36-48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond,
increasing westerly shear should induce weakening. The official
intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN.
Steering currents are weak, and the initial motion is a
northwestward drift or 320/4 kt. Gaston's motion is being
partially blocked by a narrow subtropical ridge, and this scenario
should continue for the next day or so. The hurricane is expected
to gradually work its way through the ridge and, in 24 to 48 hours,
begin to move northeastward and east-northeastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is close to a
consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 30.5N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 30.8N 55.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 31.2N 55.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 31.6N 55.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 32.4N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 34.3N 49.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 36.5N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 38.5N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
The Gfs would have the remnants of Gaston strengthen around the Bay of Biscay sometime around the 6th , other models predicting it to fizzle out before then.
GEFS Track predictions
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National Hurricane Centre saying Gaston currently has maximum sustained winds of 95 kts ( 110 mph / 175 km/h ) drifting N and should accelerate its momentum ENE and maintain wind speeds for a few days before weakening significantly as it reaches near the Azores in about 5 days. From what I can see on the models atm and going by the NHC data is for the system to dissipate around the Azores over the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 31.0N 55.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 31.3N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 31.9N 53.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 32.6N 51.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 36.7N 42.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 38.0N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 39.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
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Well Gaston nearing the end of it's life, initially to loose Hurricane strength later tonight and gradually loose Tropical status by 48hrs and dissipate by 72 hrs just North of the Azores.
The Azores Met Service has issued a Tropical Storm warning for some Islands.
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