Has anyone read this...if so what do you think

gazzer

I got this link about the real reason(apparantly) the war is going on in Irag sent to me today... i have read some of it and it makes for intersting reading....i dont know how true (or false) it is...what do you all think????


http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

DiscoStu

it was mentioned a few weeks ago but didnt make much of an impact around here. personally i think it would be one of the most important reasons.

it would tie into the rebuilding americas defences report which said that america should do everything in its power to maintainand create hegmonies in all fields, militarliy, economically etc.(yada yada yada report is not policy. then i ask you to read the national security policy of the united states and tell me that it is not very very similar).

Meh

Some discussion on the same subject here. The fact that Tony Blair supports the war refutes the argument completely. Why would he try to bring the UK into the euro with one hand, and try to sabotage the euro with the other?

Gordon

I didn't read all of it but is it not saying that it is because of oil? Ok - the money of oil?

DiscoStu

Giving lip service to the euro and constantly refusing to give a straight answer on the timetable for a referendum on membership lets alone a timetable for dumping of the pound is hardly what i would call support.

Johnmb

The fact that Tony Blair supports the war refutes the argument completely. Why would he try to bring the UK into the euro with one hand, and try to sabotage the euro with the other?

It hardly refutes the argument completely. What has Blair done lately to show his support for Britain entering? What has he ever done other than to not write it off completely as the Tories had done? Besides, he made that policy before Iraq switched to using the currency, back when the US wouldn't care. Nowadays that has changed, and Blair just does what the US tell he to do.

Dr_Teeth

Look at it another way Meh. If Blair wants the UK to adopt the Euro but large sections of the population and the opposition parties do not, what better way to force the issue than to weaken the Euro thereby putting the british economy under pressure - a weaker Euro means that UK exports suffer.

A weaker Euro with respect to the pound also means that the UK will get a better deal whenever they do decide to join the currency - they get more euros for each pound that is converted during the transition.

Teeth.

Meh

Originally posted by DiscoStu
Giving lip service to the euro and constantly refusing to give a straight answer on the timetable for a referendum on membership lets alone a timetable for dumping of the pound is hardly what i would call support.

Are you trying to argue that Blair is secretly anti-euro? If so, you would appear to know very little about UK politics. Blair is reluctant to schedule a referendum because he wants the option to hold it at the most favourable time. And he can't make a timetable for "dumping the pound" until he's won his referendum.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/1989327.stm
When pressed by Jeremy Paxman over his policy towards the single currency, Tony Blair made it crystal clear he favours entry in principle.

He wants Britain in and will be happy, possibly even delighted, to go down in history as the man who got the UK to change currency from the pound to the euro.

His enthusiasm for Europe shines through the interview as he insists it would be a betrayal of the national interest to stand aside purely for political decisions.

Any suggestion that Tony Blair is trying to sabotage the euro is pure fantasy.

Johnmb

Any suggestion that Tony Blair is trying to sabotage the euro is pure fantasy

It isn't sabotaging the Euro. The Euro was fine before it was used by Iraq, and will remain so, however the Dollar relies on it's position as the reserve currency. It probably couldn't survive if it was replaced as the oil currency by the Euro, at least not in a way that could sustain Bush's buddies.

Wook

To the original poster : it would be nice if you also voiced your opinion on this , and not just do the copy and represent job.

about the document, it would surprise me under normal circumstances that europe would allow this war to happen then under the american conditions. But with regret i have to say that Europe just doesnt have the backbone to resist and that most of our elected leaders are just clueless and rather silly.

DiscoStu

Meh, I am well aware of the fact that in uk politics the predominate force on major issues is almost always jingoism. but as Johnmb has pointed out that policy was cooked up well before Iraq was an "issue" and that interview was before the US started out on their war at all costs mentality towards Iraq. But now the poodle is on his leash and there is not really much he can do but go along for the walk.

Meh

Originally posted by Johnmb
It isn't sabotaging the Euro. The Euro was fine before it was used by Iraq, and will remain so, however the Dollar relies on it's position as the reserve currency.

Preventing the euro from becoming the oil currency would be damaging to the euro. Just read the original article linked above for a list of all the benefits associated with being the oil reserve currency. Blair has no reason to oppose this -- if the euro did become the oil reserve currency, his task of persuading the UK to vote for euro entry would become much easier. Under these circumstances, UK entry to the euro would be almost assured. Blair has every reason to support the euro becoming the oil reserve currency, and no reason to oppose it.

Originally posted by Dr_Teeth:
If Blair wants the UK to adopt the Euro but large sections of the population and the opposition parties do not, what better way to force the issue than to weaken the Euro thereby putting the british economy under pressure - a weaker Euro means that UK exports suffer.

Why would the UK electorate want to join a weak, unstable currency?

A weaker Euro with respect to the pound also means that the UK will get a better deal whenever they do decide to join the currency - they get more euros for each pound that is converted during the transition.

And it leaves UK manufacturers at a permanent competitive disadvantage with respect to their euro-zone counterparts.

Originally posted by DiscoStu:
but as Johnmb has pointed out that policy was cooked up well before Iraq was an "issue" and that interview was before the US started out on their war at all costs mentality towards Iraq.

Saddam changed to the euro in "late 2000", according to the article. Iraqi regime change has been US government policy since 1998. Bush started making noises about Iraq in his State of the Union address on January 30th, 2002. The interview I linked is from May 2002.

Johnmb

Preventing the euro from becoming the oil currency would be damaging to the euro.

No it wouldn't, it would be keeping the Euro in its current position. It would be failing to make it the worlds dominant currency, but it would not be damaging it, as it does not rely on that position for stability, the Dollar does.

Blair has no reason to oppose this

Yes he does, Bush told him to.

Saddam changed to the euro in "late 2000", according to the article. Iraqi regime change has been US government policy since 1998.

I don't think anyone ever said this was the ONLY reason, just one of the main ones. Controling Iraq and, more importantly, its OPEC vote is also a big plus for the US as they already control the Kuwait vote. That would give them control of two of the founder votes at OPEC meetings, and if they decide to "liberate" the Iranians again, that would be three.

Dr_Teeth

Why would the UK electorate want to join a weak, unstable currency?

As Johnmb mentions, the Euro wouldn't be any weaker or more unstable than it is now.

And it leaves UK manufacturers at a permanent competitive disadvantage with respect to their euro-zone counterparts.

How would british business be at a permanent disadvantage? Ensuring that the Euro doesn't become the reserve currency just continues the status-quo. Are you saying that right now if the UK moved to the Euro that its manufacturers would suffer? If so why exactly?

Teeth.

Kell

Perhaps Blair is smarter than we thought then. As I read the article I began to think that perhaps Blair holds the trump card in this campaign.

If Blair succeeds in joining the Eurozone I would think that any Euro sceptics would jump on the bandwagon in accepting the currency, which would drumming up the value of the currency, and put more pressure on OPEC in it's adoption of the Euro as the "oil currency" thus holding America over a barrell (pun fully intended).

By complete contrast to what is being speculated on at the moment i.e. Blair on the end of a leash to Bush are we going to see a complete role reversal? I dont think under any circumstances the US would contemplate attacking Europe in an effort to prevent oil being priced in Euro's.

Dr_Teeth

It isn't europe's choice though, it's OPEC's.. but let's see..

The US practically has Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and UAE in the bag.

I dunno about Nigeria and Algeria and Saudi Arabia.

They definately don't have sway over Iran, Libya, and Indonesia.

They'll try again to depose Chavez in Venezuela the first chance they get.

What I'd like to see is the Russians moving to Euros, since they supply a good chunk of our oil.

Teeth.

Meh

Originally posted by Johnmb
Yes he does, Bush told him to.

And I suppose if Bush told Blair to jump off a cliff, he'd do that as well? Please. Blair will do what is in his country's interest. He clearly sees the euro as being in his country's interest, and if the euro were to become the world's oil reserve currency, that would be a major step towards his goal.

Originally posted by Dr_Teeth:
How would british business be at a permanent disadvantage?

Because if sterling enters the euro at too high a level, exports from the UK to the rest of the eurozone are permanently more expensive. Hence UK industry is less competitive.

Are you saying that right now if the UK moved to the Euro that its manufacturers would suffer? If so why exactly?

No; I'm saying that a weak euro is not in the economic interests of the UK, whether the UK decides to join it or not. It's already accepted by economists that sterling is overvalued, and will need to fall before the UK enters the euro. A further appreciation in the value of sterling against the euro would be going completely against Blair's favourable policy towards the euro.

Johnmb

And I suppose if Bush told Blair to jump off a cliff, he'd do that as well?

Well, he has practically committed political suicide doing what Bush told him.

He clearly sees the euro as being in his country's interest, and if the euro were to become the world's oil reserve currency, that would be a major step towards his goal.

He seen the Euro as being in his country's interest before it was ever considered as the new oil reserve currency, so it is okay as is as far as he is concerned. Stopping it becoming the world reserve currency won't change that, but allowing it to become the reserve currency would upset his boss.

Meh

Originally posted by Johnmb
Well, he has practically committed political suicide doing what Bush told him.

Not according to the latest UK opinion polls.

He seen the Euro as being in his country's interest before it was ever considered as the new oil reserve currency, so it is okay as is as far as he is concerned. Stopping it becoming the world reserve currency won't change that,

The euro becoming the world reserve currency makes it more likely that the UK electorate will vote in favour of euro membership. Therefore Blair would be in favour of the euro becoming the world reserve currency, given that he is in favour of the UK joining the euro. I've already explained this.

but allowing it to become the reserve currency would upset his boss.

Why would Blair ignore what he believes is in the best interest of his country and do what Bush tells him to do instead? Does the CIA have some kind of blackmail material on him?

Johnmb

Not according to the latest UK opinion polls.

We'll see what happens at the next election. Assuming he is still leader at that stage, it'll be his last election as leader.

Therefore Blair would be in favour of the euro becoming the world reserve currency, given that he is in favour of the UK joining the euro. I've already explained this.

You haven't explained it very well. He believed the Euro was good BEFORE it was ever mentioned as a reserve currency. He believes it is good for completely different reasons. He doesn't need it to become the reserve currency for it to be considered good. Whether or not it is the reserve currency will not have an effect on the reasons he believes it is good. It would however damage his boss if it were to become the reserve currency, so given that Blair thinks it is good enough as is there is no reason for him to want it to be the reserve currency.

Why would Blair ignore what he believes is in the best interest of his country and do what Bush tells him to do instead? Does the CIA have some kind of blackmail material on him?

Who knows? Maybe they do have some dirt on him. Maybe he thinks that history will be written by the Americans and wants them to treat him kindly. Who knows, and who cares? The evidence is in the way he refused to go against Bush even though it has risked not only his political future, but his parties as well, and the way he has intentionally lied to the public on more than one occassion (why would he lie if he was genuinely interested in what was best for his country?)

Meh

Originally posted by Johnmb
He doesn't need it to become the reserve currency for it to be considered good.

But he does need it to become the reserve currency to improve the chances of winning the referendum.

It would however damage his boss if it were to become the reserve currency, so given that Blair thinks it is good enough as is there is no reason for him to want it to be the reserve currency.

Wanting to win the euro referendum isn't enough of a reason?

Who knows? Maybe they do have some dirt on him. Maybe he thinks that history will be written by the Americans and wants them to treat him kindly.

Or perhaps he honestly believes that Saddam Hussein must be stopped?

and the way he has intentionally lied to the public on more than one occassion (why would he lie if he was genuinely interested in what was best for his country?)

Where has Blair himself lied? Civil service screwups over plagiarized student papers don't count...

Johnmb

But he does need it to become the reserve currency to improve the chances of winning the referendum.

The people who will make that decision won't give a damn about what is the reserve currency, as it won't effect them one way or the other. Only big business would be effected. There are much more important considerations for ordinary people to base their decisions on.

Where has Blair himself lied? Civil service screwups over plagiarized student papers don't count...

Well, there's alway his claim from yesterday that two British soldiers were executed, without a shred of evidence to back it up, and going against the reports made by the MOD. As for the plagiarism, I would consider that a lie as it is highly unlikely that he didn't know where the information came from, and if he genuinely didn't, then he is incompetent as most leaders would make sure they knew the history of a document that was so important to their policies.

TomF

I'm no economist, but I think I can recognize Marxist balderdash when I see it. There are plenty of economists in Cuba and North Korea who will believe every word.

I simply can't see the E.U. being a future power when its population is on the skids toward oblivion compared to the U.S. Those countries with continuing vigour, such as the Arabic countries, strangely enough, represent the real future challenge to U.S. hegemony and I think the present war in Iraq is an attempt to change the course of Arab and neighbouring countries like Iran toward the direction of liberal capitalist democracies that actually serve the interests of their peoples instead of the top man and his extended family.

Granted, a large part of the reason for this war self-interest on the part of the U.S. but I can certainly understand why the U.S. doesn't want energetic populations like those of the Middle East continuing to produce young men who think that running airliners into skyscrapers full of innocent people at their daily work is a patriotic statement. Much better that these young men concern themselves with bringing water, health care and job opportunities to the people of their countries.

Meh

Originally posted by Johnmb
The people who will make that decision won't give a damn about what is the reserve currency, as it won't effect them one way or the other. Only big business would be effected. There are much more important considerations for ordinary people to base their decisions on.

Nonsense. If the euro were to be successful to the point of becoming the world oil reserve currency, that would definitely influence public opinion in the UK in favour of it.

Johnmb

Nonsense. If the euro were to be successful to the point of becoming the world oil reserve currency, that would definitely influence public opinion in the UK in favour of it.

Then explain to me how exactly having the Euro as the worlds reserve currency will have any effect on the people of Britain? Or are you saying they are all a bit thick and will vote for it because it's famous?

Meh

Originally posted by Johnmb
Then explain to me how exactly having the Euro as the worlds reserve currency will have any effect on the people of Britain? Or are you saying they are all a bit thick and will vote for it because it's famous?

No; they will vote for it because there are certain benefits associated with being the world oil reserve currency. Have you even read the article that this thread is about? Or are you just being wilfully obtuse?

bonkey

Originally posted by Meh
Therefore Blair would be in favour of the euro becoming the world reserve currency, given that he is in favour of the UK joining the euro. I've already explained this.

And people have already questioned your explanation...

The point you seem to be overlooking is the cost to the UK of a crippled US economy. Except probably for Ireland, I think it would be safe to say that the UK economy is the closest linked to the US. Crippling the dollar would have a massively negative impact on Sterling. Boosting the Euro's worth through the roof would also have the net effect of further crippling Sterling, especially if the UK wanted to join the Euro after such a change.

There are limits to how weak you can allow your currency to be before it ceases to be an effective mecahnism for helping your nation. Yes, it makes your goods cheaper abroad, thus helping exports, but it cripples you on imports, and ultimately on balance-of-trade, leading to potentially disastrous results regarding inflation etc.

Its too big an issue for the "weak currency is good" argument. I mean - if that were true, why would the US not want to lose their "oil currency" status. That would really devalue the dollar, and no-one is saying that would be good for them....yet people still assert that devaluing Sterling is a good thing for the Brits.

Come on lads....logically, the same applies to both nations. Small devaluation = good, long-term significant devaluation = bad.

It is most definitely not in Blair's interest to allow such a shift to Euro before the UK jumps on board, and in the meantime, he gets gratitude from the US, which will also help him along nicely.

jc