are we approaching endgame?

Rufus T Firefly

I heard an interesting statistic the other day on TV. The last census in Northern Ireland said that in terms of religious affiliations, 47% of the NI population declared themselves Protestant, 47% of the population declared themselves Catholic and 6% others/non-religious.

While these figures don't translate precisely into Unionist/Nationalist voting intentions, they do represent a remarkable shift in the demographics of the North. The idea used to be if that Catholics/Nationalists were discriminated against in jobs etc., then they would leave to find work elsewhere and the North would have a Unionist majority in perpetuity. Since the late 70's/early 80's Northern Catholics have become much more politicized - more aware of equal employment laws, much more savvy about the whole benefits system - and are staying in the North.

This, in tandem with the always higher birth rate for Catholics, seems to be now showing in both the demographics and voting intentions. Around 15 years ago, Londonderry became Derry City. This year the unthinkable happened and Belfast got itself a Sinn Fein mayor.

I have a number of questions floating around my politically unsophisticated mind. Not all Catholics are Nationalists, but then not all Protestants are Unionists. So what are the current voting intentions? By which I mean if they had a vote on the future of NI tomorrow, what would be the most likely outcome and the most likely percentages?

Are we heading inexorably towards a Nationalist majority in the North? I suspect we are and the Unionists are acting like the beleagured minority the Catholics once were. The actions of the loyalist paramilitaries seem like the last roars of the Lion King, who knows he's about to be devoured by the Nationalist pack.

And if we are heading towards a united Ireland, do we smooth the transition with joint sovereignty? I believe we could have a majority in favour of a united Ireland within 10 years - the cross border bodies are, to me, an acknowledgement of the inevitable. The real question is - will we be prepared or able for it when it happens?

mike65

I wont argue the politics of this issue, this was done in another thread here some time back but as for whether this soverign
Republic will be ready for a United Ireland in 10 years of whatever shape, the answer will be NO!. I base this assesment on 28 years in this state.

Mike.

Samson

Originally posted by Rufus T Firefly
Are we heading inexorably towards a Nationalist majority in the North?

Yes, indeed we are.
And, indeed the tactics employed by the Unionist/Loyalists only seem to enforce this view for me.
They are hanging on to majority by their finger nails and seem intent on forever coming up with (non)reason after (non)reason to throw the new political institutions into turmoil/doubt, these are the desperate acts of people who know their time will soon be up.

Originally posted by Rufus T Firefly
And if we are heading towards a united Ireland, do we smooth the transition with joint sovereignty? I believe we could have a majority in favour of a united Ireland within 10 years - the cross border bodies are, to me, an acknowledgement of the inevitable. The real question is - will we be prepared or able for it when it happens?

I think it will take a bit more than 10 years, 25 or more I'd say.
As far as being prepared, no, we most certainly are not, if we do not start putting contingency plans in place now, we are going to be in for a major shock when it does happen.

Shinji

More importantly perhaps than the question of whether a united Ireland *could* happen - to which the answer is probably yes - is the question of whether, all nationalistic chest-beating aside, it's really a good idea....

Do we REALLY want to add a fragmented province laden down with a history of violence, hatred and terrorism to the Republic of Ireland?

Does anyone really think that it's worth running the risk of loyalist terror attacks on Irish towns and cities, just so that they can have the fuzzy idea of a 32-county republic?

Raskolnikov

You are making an awfully big assumption there Rufus, there are a lot of people who have reservations about unification down here and there are even those who would oppose it vehmently. Personally i'd like to see unification, the economic reasons may be gone now but i have a lot of friends/relations who live up North. Of course i don't think this should happen unless a majority wants it.

Jaden

I consider it my civic duty to do everything in my power to prevent a United Ireland.

To want want such a thing means you've probably been listening to too many Wolfe Tones CDs.

Rufus T Firefly

There's an awful lot of Wolfe Tone CD's knocking around. Like it or not, there's probably a large majority in favour of unification down South and not too far down the line there *will* be a majority in favour in the North.

As I said the question is will we be ready or able for it when it comes? Be nice if an event that's been a century in the coming didn't take us by surprise when it happens.

gandalf

Rufus take one look at modern Ireland. We can't even manage to build a 60-80,000 seater stadium without major problems and infighting now look at a serious situation like re-unification and go figure.

If Germany still has not recovered from its re-unification given its more efficient and dare I say more productive government and economy then I think we are fecked. Throw into the equation the fact that the more militant factions within loyalism will start terror campaigns down here when/if reunification happens then I think you'll agree with my accessment that it will be a very damaging and painful process to Ireland and the economy of this Island.

Personally I don't see it happening for at least another 25 years and at this moment I am strongly against it.

Gandalf.

Shinji

the economic reasons may be gone now but i have a lot of friends/relations who live up North

Aaaaannnddd your point is?

I have friends from the north. In fact, I have family from the north - my mother is from Armagh.

I don't see what that's got to do with a united Ireland. I also have friends and family in the USA, in England, in Australia, in Japan and in Greece, to name but a few. I am not, however, about to suggest that we make a united nation out of Greece and Ireland just "because".

(I might be quite on for uniting Japan and Ireland though, no more import duty!)

Rufus T Firefly

Gandalf, I agree totally that unification will come with a heavy price tag atttached and probably with violence and loss of life. But the fact remains that it's an historic inevitability. The 47/47 split probably underplays the the true number of Catholics/Nationalists as many regard census forms as British government snooping. Consider this possibility: there may already be a Catholic majority in the North.

There is also a 'brain drain' of young middle class Unionists to English universities - many of these people never return. They seem to believe that the cause is already lost. It accelerates the demographic changes and could be the start of a wider movement of Unionists back to Britain.

Sinn Fein themselves want to wait till the 2012 census gives them a green light (sic) for a poll on unification. They (who I'm guessing have a better idea than most on the strength of the Nationalist vote) believe by then there will be a clear majority.

I'm not arguing in favour or against unification. I'm saying it's coming and the debate should be centred on how to accommodate the North into the Republic's constitution/mindset. The Unionist mindset is already by turns fearful, angry and betrayed. I dearly hope that that the UK and Irish governments are already setting about creating a framework that enables the change to happen with the least pain, fear and violence possible.

http://www.independent.co.uk/story.jsp?story=119350

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/ulster/story.jsp?story=119349

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2002/0214/1726974058HMNIPOP.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Northern_Ireland/Story/0,2763,472199,00.html