Severe Storm Monday Evening

ninebeanrows

Monday will bring Ireland's first really severe spell of weather for the season.
What will be notable about this event will be the shear size of the area
affected by severe gales and storm force winds.

The good thing is that the system will be over Ireland for no more than
9 hours and the severe sustained windspeeds will last for no more than
6-8 hours.

The storm will approach the southwest coast around 6am Monday and
will have cleared the north coast by 6pm.

A swathe of severe winds will accompany the storm system.

Inland areas can expect sustained 30-35mph winds with gusts over 60mph

Coastal areas of the south and west can expect sustained winds of 40mph with gusts exceeding 70mph. ( 4 miles from coast )

Eastern and Northern coasts can expect sustained winds of 45-50mph
with gusts exceeding 80mph. ( 4 miles from coast )

This will be easily enough to cause serious damage to property and tree's
with loss of power in some areas inevitable.

The Monday Evening rush hour in Dublin will be especially treacherous with
winds gusting to 75mph as residents try to make their way home.

Be careful and take care the Irish Met will release a warning later today
or tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.gif

And please dont merge this with another the " winter indication" thread.
It is fully deserving of its own thread.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Monday will bring Ireland's first really severe spell of weather for the season.

The Monday Evening rush hour in Dublin will be especially treacherous with
winds gusting to 75mph as residents try to make their way home.

Interesting wind estimates there Weathercheck!!
:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Interesting wind estimates there Weathercheck!!
:rolleyes:

Wy the :rolleyes: ??:D ???

Supercell

Spot the difference between ..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.gif

The low center isnt as deep or have as tightly packed isobars as below..and it passes off the NW coast

And

http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2005/brack/bracka20050108.gif

The second link gives winds almost in the range mentioned, in this case the low center passed accross the nw midlands and the east coast was right there in the tightly packed isobar area.

News report of the damage done at the time

Make your own mind up about the likelyhood of apocalyptic scenes in Dublin on Monday night...

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Spot the difference between ..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.gif

The low center isnt as deep or have as tightly packed isobars as below..and it passes off the NW coast

And

http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2005/brack/bracka20050108.gif

The second link gives winds almost in the range mentioned, in this case the low center passed accross the nw midlands and the east coast was right there in the tightly packed isobar area.

News report of the damage done at the time

Make your own mind up about the likelyhood of apocalyptic scenes in Dublin on Monday night...

Why ya having such a go at me!?

Of the season...

that's what i said..

Plus the wind direction is totally different funnelling up the Irish sea.
Secondly the low pressure is passing so fastly you would need a chart
bewtween the 54hr and 60hr to show the severest weather for the east
coast.

When did i ever say there would be apocalyptic scenes in Dublin come Monday night?
I said the severest weather of the season meaning of Autumn...


here are the winds after the worst has past
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn609.gif

Still 40kt winds along the east coast or 48mph (sustained)

Supercell

Sorry Weathercheck, didn't mean to come accross as having a go at you, just trying to keep this tread based in fact rather than wishful thinking.

That windchart you posted does indeed show strong winds in the Irish sea, however when the winds are coming from the SW like it currently looks like they will be, then much of Dublin will be sheltered by the Wicklow mountains and therefore unlikely to see such winds unless like back in January when we were really in the firing line.

That said if the low center passes more to the east than the north than it might indeed get bad here, though thats not whats currently forcasted by the models that I can see.

Andrew in Metcheck does take this leeside effect into his forcasts and as you can see for monday at http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Dublin&day=2

The wind forcast max is 32mph, so you could realistically expect gusting to maybe 40-50 at the back end of the cold front briefly, thats still a long way shy of 75mph I think you will aggree,

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Sorry Weathercheck, didn't mean to come accross as having a go at you, just trying to keep this tread based in fact rather than wishful thinking.

That windchart you posted does indeed show strong winds in the Irish sea, however when the winds are coming from the SW like it currently looks like they will be, then much of Dublin will be sheltered by the Wicklow mountains and therefore unlikely to see such winds unless like back in January when we were really in the firing line.

That said if the low center passes more to the east than the north than it might indeed get bad here, though thats not whats currently forcasted by the models that I can see.

Andrew in Metcheck does take this leeside effect into his forcasts and as you can see for monday at http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Dublin&day=2

The wind forcast max is 32mph, so you could realistically expect gusting to maybe 40-50 at the back end of the cold front briefly, thats still a long way shy of 75mph I think you will aggree,

I suppose we'll just have to wait and see and i've always found Metcheck
forecast terrible and not just for this:D I would never trust them as there
totally computer generated and often have errors.

I really believe that Dublin Airport will recieve a gust of around 78mph
on Monday with sustained winds esceeding 40mph;)

Plus i live right beside the coast so it will be even higher here:D

ninebeanrows

Here's the ECM's take on things.. unfortunately we dont have the
charts before 72 hours but we can expect it moved over the Northwest
of Ireland.

ninebeanrows

Rigtio folks here we go!!!

another 36 hours of very interesting nowcasting:D

The storm will develop very rapidly over the coming 36 hours and in 36 hours
will bring Ireland by far its worst gales of the season and first storm.

Heavy rain will be a major problem with the sytem saturated with mild moist
air falls of upto 50mm are likely during the course of Monday into Tuesday.

Windspeeds will also be a major problem, the latest progg of the storm is
for the storm to sit @ 5pm Monday a few miles of the Mayo coast.
Storm winds will affect the western seaboard (force 10), Southern coasts
will be affected by Force 9 possibly force 10 winds and eastern coasts
will be affected by force 9 severe gales.

There is a SEVERE threat to Northern late Monday around 1900-2200hrs as
the sytem rapidly intesifies storm force 10 winds will approach violent storm force 11.

So predictions for observartion posts.

Bellmullet: 45Knots Gusting 72Knots = 55mph gusting 85mph
Malin Head: 50Knots gusting 78knots = 60mph gusting 90mph
Dublin Airport: 40knots gusting 70knots = 50mph gusting 80mph
Rosslare Harbour: 40knots gusting 70knots = 50mph gusting 80mph

Land gales are also expected with gusts above 60mph possible.

Thankfully the system will move through rapidly limiting the severe winds
to no more than 6 hours in any one location.


I would expect the Irish Met Office to release a warning through the day.

DapperGent

...

DapperGent wrote:

Nail up some storm shutters and hide in the basement with your family. Better bring the dog in too. God willing you'll make it through the night. I'll be praying for you.

Hopefully the blizzards won't have snowed you in by tomorrow. Maybe go to the supermarket and stock up on canned food just in case.

Hal1

Its looking interesting, I just noticed the met office issued a gale warning for today which is to bring "severe gusts in the northwest".

"The very strong winds will continue into Monday night, with possibly further damaging gusts, especially near the western seaboard. However the winds will quickly abate through the latter part of the night with no more than a fresh to strong breeze likely by dawn on Tuesday."

So maybe Weathercheck is just slightly exadgerating about the course of the weather over the next few hours but I wouldn't knock entirely what is is describing. :v:

ninebeanrows

The 12z is out and it shows a extremely severe weather event for the
Northern coast of NI.

The system deepens 25mb in 24 hours and races of the west coast
as a rapidly intensifying sub 980mb low pressure system and then
slams into the Scottish west coast as a sub 975mb storm packing
sustained hurricane force winds 65KT/74mph with gusts exceeding 100mph.

As far as Ireland is concerned, Northern and northwestern coastal counties
can expect Storm force winds with sustained 45-50knots gusting to 75knots.
So gusts to 85mph in this area is a reasonable estimate.

The intensity for Eastern areas stays the same as the rapid intensification
although bringing more intense winds to the west will push the system further
west also. So Sustained 45MPH on the eastern coast with gusts 75mph.

This is a now-casting situation though so details will change as the sytstem
develops.

Just look at this storm as it packs into western Scotland:eek: WHOAH

Supercell

To give Weathercheck a little credance, while its unlikely to be quite like he describes it (or even close) , it does look likely that some areas of the west will see gale force winds and possibly some structural damage in places, in the east the main risk is from rain, unless you live in the very south east or on a boat in the middle of the Irish Sea.

Is this a once in a year event?, maybe a once in a month event at this time of year, would estimate days with gale to strong gale force winds between now and say May next year in the west would probably average about 1-2 per fortnight in places like Belmullet and Malin Head (or more) , all in all pretty seasonal , none the less the potential for damage is there, but hardly merits the sensationalist doomsday 80mph gusts forecast along the east coast by some!!

One thing that does slightly concern me is that winds are now forecast to be more southerly than SW here in the east, which would mean more risk of proper gusts, though still not likely to be >55mph in the strongest gusts, unless you live in in a particularly elevated place or in a valley that runs N-S in direction where funnelling effects would be significant.

So heads up lads, its going to be a bit windy, in the west and north, but nothing unusual for the time of year, but do pay close attention to the forecast track as this *possibly* could be worse if it takes a more easterly track than currently forecast (in which case luck rather than skill or sense would make Weathercheck's forecasts more closer to reality, even if it does track right over us, i'll eat my hat if anywhere along the east coast at sea leval sees gusts >70mph!! - Rosslare being a possible exception due to its exposure).

Its the first real sign of the seasons changing properly from the summeresque temperature and weather we have been experiencing lately!

Its going to be windy, make sure you do check the forecasts tomorrow morning as while unlikely to amount to much in Dublin, is certainly a fluid situation and the potential (small) is there for something a bit worse, currently I rate the chances of a proper Xmas '97 type storm here as being <10%

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

...Quote:
Originally Posted by DapperGent
Nail up some storm shutters and hide in the basement with your family. Better bring the dog in too. God willing you'll make it through the night. I'll be praying for you.

Hopefully the blizzards won't have snowed you in by tomorrow. Maybe go to the supermarket and stock up on canned food just in case.

ROFL

ninebeanrows

Yes the intensity will be left at 42Kt's for the east coast 37kt's 10miles
inland of the coast (49mph and 43mph respectively).

I can tell you that 49mph is comfortably Force 9/Severe Gale force..

Slight structural damage occurs
(chimney-pots and slates removed)

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

i'll eat my hat if anywhere along the east coast at sea leval sees gusts >70mph!!

Oooh I'm egging my anemometer.
It's only a mile from the coast so it's guaranteed to record 80+mph

Supercell

Mothman wrote:

Oooh I'm egging my anemometer.
It's only a mile from the coast so it's guaranteed to record 80+mph

You will be lucky if its not 90mph + !!

Hehe, no cheating now!!

ninebeanrows

It will be interesting to watch this system develop.

In the image here/] shows the system beginning to develop, a baraclonic leaf is beginning to be visible. The system is along the split between the 2 images across from France.

Watch this area through the coming 24 hours as it develops:)

ninebeanrows

ewww.. Nice forecast there from the met:D

Showed sustained 100KMH winds along the west coast and 85KMH along
the east coast. 100KM = 65mph 85KM = 52mph :eek:

Also mentioned land gales that means 40mph sustained winds over land!

That's severe:D
see it aint just me!

Supercell

Url please, somehow think this is selective interpretation.

ninebeanrows

dont have one i just watched the forecast.

Along the west coast had a wind symbol with 100 written in it.
Along the east it had a symbol with 85 written in it

watch 9 o'clock news

Supercell

Weathercheck....nobody but fishermen live on the sea...

Again you choose to pick the most sensationalist forecast possible..

At least you give life to the forum m8, wish you toned down the forecasts to realistic (unsexy) versions than the sky is falling type ones that you are so fond of.

ninebeanrows

OK OK...

Here's the latest from the IRISH MET OFFICE

Irish Met Office have released their forecast for tomorrow.

Their showing sustained winds of 58mph along western coasts and 52mph of Eastern coasts.



Forecast for Dublin area

Becoming wet and extremely windy, with some damaging gusts.

For Connacht & Ulster

some brighter spells tomorrow morning. Getting wet and extremely windy or even stormy for tomorrow afternoon and evening with heavy rain.

I have a feeling that they are expecting a little more than 60mph gusts :blink:

all taken from http://www.met.ie/default.asp

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

dont have one i just watched the forecast.

I saw that too...


Now tell me how does..

Along the west coast had a wind symbol with 100 written in it.
Along the east it had a symbol with 85 written in it

become...

Weathercheck wrote:

OK OK...

Here's the latest from the IRISH MET OFFICE

Irish Met Office have released their forecast for tomorrow.

Their showing sustained winds of 58mph along western coasts and 52mph of Eastern coasts.

Those are maxima ie gusts.
The Eagle at 630 mentioned storm force winds along atlantic coasts with gales or strong gales across land.
Theres noting too remarkable about that in the East.It means it will be very very windy here.
It's something we've seen umpteen times in any given autumn/Winter season(even last w/end)
Grant it , it's going to be stormy in the north and up along the west.
But getting carried away and translating Met maxima into something they dont say (100km sustained winds) is just exaggeration tbh.

That said,I am expecting my record gust at ground level of 44mph to break tomorrow evening.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

I saw that too...


Now tell me how does..
become...Those are maxima ie gusts.
The Eagle at 630 mentioned storm force winds along atlantic coasts with gales or strong gales across land.
Theres noting too remarkable about that in the East.It means it will be very very windy here.
It's something we've seen umpteen times in any given autumn/Winter season(even last w/end)
Grant it , it's going to be stormy in the north and up along the west.
But getting carried away and translating Met maxima into something they dont say (100km sustained winds) is just exaggeration tbh.

That said,I am expecting my record gust at ground level of 44mph to break tomorrow evening.

You call me ignorant?

Look at the charts .. are you telling me those windspeeds on those charts
i posted above are maximum windspeeds?

If you are.. you are horribly wrong...

Right I've had enough of this.

Thread closed

Weathercheck banned for a month