Winter 05/06 indications thread (part one)

Off ye go - post all your thoughts on whatever trend you want to highlight in advance of it happening in the winter season here.

As per the charter-no new threads on potential severe weather unless it's merited-otherwise the new threads will be merged into this one which is a waste of time and effort for the mod and the poster

This thread will remain a sticky and is likely to be replaced by a part 2 thread , a part 3 thread etc depending on how long or unwieldy it gets.

I'd rather not see each part longer than 10 pages-so thats the rule of thumb.
For continuity purposes, if you as a poster can remember that guideline,then at page 10, you can start a new one with the same title and I will lock & unsticky this one and sticky the new one.

ninebeanrows

we're all the other posts deleted??

Anyway as it is we have ourselves set for 6-9 hours of severe weather on
Monday with the portential for Storm Force winds.

Early on thursday a small depression will form to the southwest of Ireland
this will swing into the west cost delivering a swathe of very strong winds
across the country and especially up eastern and southern coasts.

Land mean windspeeds will approach 32mph

While coastal fringes of the south and east can expect sustained windspeeds
of circa 46mph. Gusts will exceed 75mph in some areas.

Sustained winds on western and northern coasts will reach circa 40mph
with gusts exceeding 70mph.

The swathe of severe winds is set to approach during early afternoon
on Monday hopefully after the rush hour but at the moment around
10am on Monday is the ETA

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

we're all the other posts deleted??

Nope,I just unstickied the thread and it fell down the list.
I did try to import the last few posts into this one and due to me not knowing how to use the new mod tools associated with the latest VB update, I created a merged post instead.

The result is this funny creation

That happened because under the new tools list you can do all sorts and manner of sexy things with posts and it was set to a default "merge posts" instead of "create new thread" before I saw that extra options dropdown when I did it

Danno

Looks like a sharp potent cool down after next week. Today (Fri Nov 4) was a taster.

Gonzo

next week doesnt look too warm with cold weather this monday and slighlty milder for the rest of the week - but certainly a bit colder than it has been. Do you think we could see Snow by the end of November here?

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

The result is this funny creation

That happened because under the new tools list you can do all sorts and manner of sexy things with posts and it was set to a default "merge posts" instead of "create new thread" before I saw that extra options dropdown when I did it

Jaysus, thats a mighty post by me !!

Danno

I am going for snowfall in Ireland (official met station) by end of November.

Supercell

You might be on a winner there if the charts for next week are anything to go by, Knock airport would be the prime contender!

billy the squid

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn908.gif
more wind for thurday/Friday?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.gif
http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack3.gif

Supercell

Looks like it, this time maybe more of a westerly component too (Higher risk of damaging gusts in Dublin) , definately worth keeping a close eye on.

Supercell

Some snow on Northen hills possible on Saturday from that trough feature maybe too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3a.gif

billy the squid

saturday looks like its going to be cold . this chart here suggests taht there will be snow in scotland. dont know if it will reach the hills here though.
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/84_30.gif

as for a windy friday
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn548.gif

Wet snow Billy maybe above 2000ft and settling snow(a Dusting) above 2500 or 2800ft
That could mean a capping for lugnaquilla

Gonzo

it's still way to early for snow at lower levels in Ireland but this cooling down does look promising, the whole of Europe is now cooling down, Madrid only 13c today and Spain is cooling down further in hte next week with temperatures around 16c on the Costa Del Sol...also next week we should have temperatures of around 8c-11c which is so much colder than what we've been used to.

LFCFan

what happened today? A lot warmer again then recently. I can't keep up with all the temperature changes these days.

LFCFan

LFCFan wrote:

what happened today? A lot warmer again then recently. I can't keep up with all the temperature changes these days.

It's just a mild burst of air.
The storm at the w/end heralds the cold air-much colder briefly than of any time this fall of late.

Supercell

Its the harbringer of what looks to be a pretty nasty spell of weather on the way tomorrow
The winds are likely to be strong , longer and have a more westerly component than the storm last sun/mon. I'd say gusts up to the 60's are a distinct possibility in Dublin from this one, so without wanting to appear to melodramatic..it is likely to be pretty hairy in some elevated or exposed locations, particularily in the north, but will be gales everywhere accross the country.

mike65

Could it be true, could we be at the start of a (whisper it) settled dry spell?

Or is accuweather talking out of its arse?

Mike.

Gonzo

next wednesday is looking quite cold 6c to 8c across the country, 5c in scotland.

Danno

Right, here we go, the first cold blast of this winter. Anyone who watches the www.met.ie/recentweather reports reguarly, please nitify here when you see a station reporting SNOW!

How early this year will it come?

billy the squid

might be worth keeping an eye on northern stations for a light dusting tomorrow night.

Gonzo

There seems to be a slight chance that we could have our first proper cold snap of the Winter starting next Friday 25th of November with temperatures only getting to 3c and strong north-east winds*if it happens*. but thats a whole week away and anything can change.

Danno

Even Metcheck is following suit with sleet forecasted later on Nov 25

billy the squid

was looking at the charts for the 25 th of november and just had to see what would happen next, and this popped out at me
http://homepage.eircom.net/~billythesquid/Rtavn2161.gif
anyone want to take bets on that actually happening.
also the chances of snow, a ****load of it are pretty good for Wednesday according to this
http://homepage.eircom.net/~billythesquid/174_30.gif

Mothman

The end of the week will probably be colder, and with a stiff northerly breeze, it's going to feel mighty cold . I say wintery showers for north and hopefully east coasts.
As for a dumping of snow, I won't get my hopes up yet, but not totally out of the question.

There seems to be a slight chance that we could have our first proper cold snap of the Winter

So I'd drop the "slight" and put in Good!

This mornings runs give a slight northeasterly component to the cold spell at the end of the week which would be good for the East.

When I say good,I mean the cold air drifting down the warm Irish sea would have the potential to develop some whopping big showers.

I'm not so sure that this early though, that would translate to snow at sea level on the east coast.
It would want to be a very unusual event.

The charts tend to suggest that it will be,the pool of air predicted is exceptionally cold.
That said it can change as this is a week away and also the only certainty from it is that the air will create heavy showers over the warmer seas.
The west might escape these if the airflow is northeasterly as those out in the atlantic will blow away from the shore obviously.
If its a straight northerly, the East is less exposed but could still get hit bad
The october 03 thunderstorms were from a cold northerly plunge and on that occasion most of the showers were in the Irish sea and were big enough to hit the East for more than 24hrs.
Obviously it was too warm for snow then(though the wicklow mts got some!!) but if you had a repeat performance in january, you would have heavy falls I think.

Stay tuned....

Gonzo

Present indications suggest that it may become a little more unsettled after midweek, with freshening North or Northwest winds and with the possibility of much colder weather setting in by the end of the week.

^^
above quoted from Met Eireann, im surprised RTE are already given early indications this early.

I like the use of the phrase present indications...

I'm guessing northerly and not northeasterly on this one-though its hard to say untill midweek ie 48 to 72 hours out.
The source of the air is not in question, it's the subtleties and its those that determine what this cold pool will do and where.

I also think its too early as the sst in the Irish sea is too high still.

Supercell

I'd say northern counties might see some of the white stuff, if its a straight northerly..expect cold clear crisp weather on the east tho.

'Tis a fascinating scenario, historicaly there has been severe snow storms in November, just not any in recent times, that said its a week away which means the charts are only slightly more accurate than chance alone so am not stocking up on fuel and food just yet!!

Danno

The thoughts of a polar low developing there excite me!

Scenario is exactly like Dec 24/25 2004.

billy the squid

anyone taken a look at the 12Z run? looks as though there will be more snow here than in the UK

and it could come a day earlier too me thinks 24th?

more probably sleety rain.
It's too early, the sea's too warm.

I'd only be confident of needing my ski's above 1000ft tbh

maybe 500 to 1000ft aswell.

(oh and in Baltinglass)

Supercell

billy the squid wrote:

anyone taken a look at the 12Z run? looks as though there will be more snow here than in the UK

and it could come a day earlier too me thinks 24th?

Yep looks great (if yer a snow fan) , but realistic hat on..is a long way off in forecasting terms..if Monday and Tuesday look the same i'll go into (toned down) Weathercheck mode.

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

more probably sleety rain.
It's too early, the sea's too warm.

I'd only be confident of needing my ski's above 1000ft tbh

maybe 500 to 1000ft aswell.

(oh and in Baltinglass)

Yep, that seems like a realistic estimate, hmm Baltinglass..how far of a drive from Dublin is that ?

1 hour south of Tallaght on the N81 within the speed limit and with no tractors in front of you.

2 hours or more at Rush hour.

Quite do able if your job is off the M50 or west /Southwest Dublin

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

1 hour south of Tallaght on the N81 within the speed limit and with no tractors in front of you.

2 hours or more at Rush hour.

Quite do able if your job is off the M50 or west /Southwest Dublin

M50 is prolly via Red Cow rather than south Co Dub?

I work in South Dublin and was thinking about Baltinglas (weather fan), have a few friends in Arklow and Gorey that do the daily commute and was wondering if the time would be comparable- end destination is on the N11 - Cherrywood exit?

Danno

"Billy the Squid" can you post a link to that 12z run you are looking at?

billy the squid

I was reading from the net-weather site. the gif image maps which come from wetterzentrale (sp) are linked up there

however it seems to be not working now

heres where I get them
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess=

not sure if this other link will be any good to you,
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Supercell

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Ohhh.chilly!!
+.
Amazing agreement in the ensembles too.

Danno

Metcheck "Snow Risk" is near 80% from thu night/fri morn

lucernarian

I see that Met Éireann are going for "unsettled weather towards the end of the week" after the 9 pm news. He also mentioned to see the farming forecast tomorrow.

Interesting times...

billy the squid

think I have found a way to read the 12Z run you asked about Danno

just replace the web address of wetterzentral.de with the IP address

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1261.gif
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.gif
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1381.gif
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

that should work

Danno

Gotcha, thanx Billy!

What time is Farming Forecast tomorrow? Is it 13.10 as usual or some time earlier - I DONT want to miss this weeks.

Danno

Looks like we'll be stuck to www.met.ie/recentweather on Thursday night! I can see it now:

2100z Knock Airport -1 Snow
2200z Mullingar -3 snow
2300z Kilkenny -5 snow
0000z Rosslare +4 sleet

billy the squid

Danno wrote:

Looks like we'll be stuck to www.met.ie/recentweather on Thursday night! I can see it now:

2100z Knock Airport -1 Snow
2200z Mullingar -3 snow
2300z Kilkenny -5 snow
0000z Rosslare +4 sleet

0000z Limerick ~10 Pissing rain

Danno

That should be:
2330z Shannon +10 Moderate Rain