When to push in a tournament?

padser

I was writing a reply to something Nicky said in the thread about pushing with a shortstack I realised something.

Nicky was saying with 5BB you dont want to show strength you want a caller so you have a chance to double up. I was going to point out that since the difference between a call and a fold from the BB was our hero having 8BB as opposed to 11BB i would prefer not to have to gamble and take the easy money.

Then i realised that 8BB (or indeed 11BB) was so little that doubling up really hadnt changed the situation....except in so far as another double up would now put our hero back in the game.

Anyway my question is at what point in a tournament (assuming you are not close to the bubble) do you decide you need to go all in as a matter of urgency. Iv always used 10BB as my guideline. One double up normally leaves you with aorund 21-23BB and you can relax again. But having said that you cant really play much poker with 20BB either. So should i be looking for an all in on 15BB? Whats the convential wisdom?

Sorry about the fact that my thread starters are often difficult to understand......iv never been described as eloquent (nor can i spell it)

NickyOD

padser wrote:

I was writing a reply to something Nicky said in the thread about pushing with a shortstack I realised something.

Nicky was saying with 5BB you dont want to show strength you want a caller so you have a chance to double up. I was going to point out that since the difference between a call and a fold from the BB was our hero having 8BB as opposed to 11BB i would prefer not to have to gamble and take the easy money.

Then i realised that 8BB (or indeed 11BB) was so little that doubling up really hadnt changed the situation....except in so far as another double up would now put our hero back in the game.

Anyway my question is at what point in a tournament (assuming you are not close to the bubble) do you decide you need to go all in as a matter of urgency. Iv always used 10BB as my guideline. One double up normally leaves you with aorund 21-23BB and you can relax again. But having said that you cant really play much poker with 20BB either. So should i be looking for an all in on 15BB? Whats the convential wisdom?

Sorry about the fact that my thread starters are often difficult to understand......iv never been described as eloquent (nor can i spell it)

Well what I meant was with a hand like AT you would definitely want a caller. With a garbage hand obviously you'd be happy to just take the blinds but if we're far from the money then I wouldn't be too unhappy getting a call when I'm a 6-4 dog either. When you're that short you just have to hope to either take the blinds or suck out on someone. No point blinding off like a wimp waiting for Aces.

I think its important though to recognise the strength of certain pushing hands and also your position from the blinds when you push. i.e. know how to pick your spots. For example you are getting better EV from pushing with 9T suited in EP when you have 6BBs left than pushing with AJo. I posted a thread with a lot of math in it here before but I'll be buggered if I can find it now.

EDIT. Here it is.

In this first situation, you are in the SB with T-9s against an "average" player. They will call your allin with A-K, A-Q, A-J, K-Q, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, and T-T. You have to decide what you have to do.

Those hands constitute (.018) + (.048), or 6.6% of possible hands your opponent has been dealt. (I know I am ignoring the fact you have T-8, but that is a minute difference and would only serve to complicate this beyond reason.) This means that you will not be called 93.4% of the time. Your win% against this hand range, when called, is 33.7%. There is 300 in the pot and you have 1900 more. So your expected value is:

EV = .934(300) + .066*.337(2200) + .066*.663(-1900)
EV = +245.99, or slightly less than +1.25BBs on average. So, in this situation, moving in is a correct move.



In this next situation, you are in the SB against a maniac with a huge stack. You have A-4o. You guess the maniac's calling range to be any of the 13 A-x hands, any of the 13 pairs, and the other 6 "Broadway" hands. This means you will be called 28.7% of the time and will win 42.0% of the times you are called.

EV = .713(300) + .287*.420(2200) + .287*.580(-1900)
EV = +162.81, or about .79 BBs gained on average.



Now you are in the cutoff (Button -1) on the bubble with three very tight players behind you, that will only call with A-A, K-K, Q-Q, and A-K. One of the three will pick up one of these hands 2.55% of the time. Ignoring the times when more that one person picks up one of these hands, there is 7.4% one of your opponents has one of those hands. You have 9-2s. You will win only 25.3% of the time you are called. You are moving in for 2000 to win 300.

EV = .926(300) + .074*.253(2300) + .074*.747(-2000)
EV = 210.30, or an average gain of slightly more than one big blind. Surprisingly, this is a positive expected value move.



Finally, you are in EP (Button -4) with 6 people behind you, all of whom are very tight and will only call you with A-K, A-Q, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, and J-J. You have A-Jo. An opponent will get one of these 5.4% of time time, and (once again ignoring repeats) you will get called 28.3% of the time by an opponent. You win% against this hand range when called is 25.6%.

EV = .717(300) + .283*.256(2200) + .283*.744(-1900)
EV = -39.37, or an average loss of more than an eighth of a big blind. Here, you have a negative expected value even though each individual opponent will rarely call, and you have Ace-Face. An important note is that holding T-9s would make this move have a positive EV of almost one quarter a BB (31.73 chips)!!

mewso

These days I use Harringtons M. i.e. if I have an M of 5 I have 5 times the BB+SB. If I am 6 or lower I am pushing and looking to double-up. As nicky says it's important where and when you do it.

staringelf

NickyOD wrote:

I think its important though to recognise the strength of certain pushing hands and also your position from the blinds when you push. i.e. know how to pick your spots.

this for me is the single most important aspect of successful long term sng play. at some point in a sng (usually around bubble time) you will be forced to effectively play for all your chips and often in a 60/40 or 50/50 situation. often you can place ITM having to only do this once in the tournament if you pick your stealing spots wisely.

for examply, stealing from the button/SB once per orbit in the mid to late stages of the game and stealing against similar sized stacks who have a much smaller callling range than a chip leader/very short stack.
you shouldn't be trying to steal from a big chip leader or small stack as the former can afford to call with a mediocre hand to try and knock you out and the latter desperately needs a double up.

also, ideally you should be looking to kill 2 birds with one stone - if you do happen to get called by a similar sized stack and win, not only do you double up but you knock another player out (or at least completly cripple him) and move much closer to a money finish. if you double up against the chip leader sure you are more comfortable for a while but he is still probably quite healthy and well in with a chance to finish ahead of you/knock you out.

padser

NickyOD wrote:

. An important note is that holding T-9s would make this move have a positive EV of almost one quarter a BB (31.73 chips)!!

took me a while to work out why. But im guessing since 9 10s plays better against AK AK and AA. And obvioulsy AK and AQ occur a lot more then KK QQ?

Ste05

musician wrote:

These days I use Harringtons M. i.e. if I have an M of 5 I have 5 times the BB+SB. If I am 6 or lower I am pushing and looking to double-up. As nicky says it's important where and when you do it.

I use the same M strategy too, I find it alot better than just looking at BB's as often there'll be Ante's later in a tournament, and you need to be stealing these bigger pots, than simply looking at the No. of BB's you have left.
I'm generally looking to steal most pots where no-one has entered the pot before me and it's the blinds of a player who's stack is of such a size that his tournament hopes will be damaged by confronting me. This sounds like alot, but you'd be surprised how infrequently this situation actually arises.... Normally less than once per orbit if even that

corblimey

Ste, in the sit you describe above, are your cards pretty much irrelevant at that stage, or are you still looking to push with live cards (suited connectors, any picture card, low pairs, etc). I guess if you're pushing with M=5 into stacks that would be crippled if they called, your hole cards are just another wrinkle you don't need?

Ste05

NickyOD wrote:

I think its important though to recognise the strength of certain pushing hands and also your position from the blinds when you push. i.e. know how to pick your spots. For example you are getting better EV from pushing with 9T suited in EP when you have 6BBs left than pushing with AJo.

I think this is a very important point and one that alot of people don't pay attention to, if you find yourself shortstacked and there has been action before you, I think that hands like AT, Ax, QJ, KJ, etc lose value, as the chances that you your hand is dominated increases. Whereas hands like mid 1 or 2 gap suited connectors value increases. In these situation the chances that you have 2 "live" cards is much greater.

In general if there is any action at all before you, I think the correct hand selection is a problem that alot of players have.

On the other hand if there has been no action before you any of the above hands would be plenty enough to go all-in with, and in fact nearly any two cards should theoretically be enough to go all-in with here.

Ste05

corblimey wrote:

Ste, in the sit you describe above, are your cards pretty much irrelevant at that stage, or are you still looking to push with live cards (suited connectors, any picture card, low pairs, etc). I guess if you're pushing with M=5 into stacks that would be crippled if they called, your hole cards are just another wrinkle you don't need?

Ye pretty much any two cards, if the situation is as described above, and you have gone all in, it takes a pretty big hand for these blinds to call an all-in for their tournament future, and well over 70-80% of the time (maybe even more, I'm not sure of the exact percentages) they won't have a hand that they are happy to CALL all-in. It's all about picking the time and situation where your stack still has a bit of clout, and to target a certain type of stack size. Harrington talks about it in his second book, and if anyone hasn't read that it will be the best poker investment after PokerTracker for any on-line player... and the best investment for a live player.

EDIT: Just read Nicky's maths bit, and I think that explains the point well, and how going all-in in this situation is a +EV move, once no one has entered the pot before you...

corblimey

Ste05 wrote:

Harrington talks about it in his second book, and if anyone hasn't read that it will be the best poker investment after PokerTracker for any on-line player... and the best investment for a live player.

I second that emotion. I just started reading about inflection points, but I think it's going to take a couple more reads before it sinks in.