"Bad beat" question (not an actual bad beat)

corblimey · 20-10-2005 10:22am #1

I have a discussion going on with a friend of mine regarding a "bad beat" he took recently. Or claimed he took. Basically, the situation was that he was behind PF and post. He went all in, and was called. On the turn, he went ahead and his opponent had a one-outer which he caught.

My friend was blustering, claiming it was the "bad beat of the night", etc. But surely being behind pre- and post-flop, he can't claim a bad beat - in fact, imo, if the river hadn't come up, he would have been the one putting the bad beat down. He states that hitting the one-outer is enough to put it down as a bad beat.

So, whats your definition of a bad beat, either getting one or taking one?

The Troll · 20-10-2005 10:47am

That depends when he pushed his chips. If he was ahead when he pushed (on the turn?) and got caught on the river, then i'd put that down as a bad beat.

Culchie · 20-10-2005 10:52am

corblimey wrote:

So, whats your definition of a bad beat, either getting one or taking one?

My worst bad beat is below (taken from blog entry in August), and it was the last in a succession of them.

Interesting enough, either this has 'immunised me' against beats, or I've just been lucky, I just can't recall a very bad beat in recent times.

Of the 10 left in the room, I am 2nd in chips, marginally behind a young lad immediately on my right. I had been impressed by this guys reads of players throughout the evening, and had the opportunity to use this observation to my advantage.

Under the Gun I get dealt the infamous AA. A call from me would look very unusual so I raised 3 times the blind, and it was folded around to the lad on the Big Blind on my right, who I had already sensed had also picked up a nice hand.

As I said before, I had been impressed by his read of people, and he was giving me quite a studying, deciding whether to fold or re-raise me all in I guess. So, I actually fed him a bit of a 'false tell' which he fell for, and he came over the top all-in. I was delighted as I really felt I had induced a mistake out of him.

He has AQ, so I'll leave the poker mathematicians to work it out, but I must be at least a 6/1 favourite, with him being dominated. However it wouldn't be the first time AA was cracked, so I braced myself for the flop.

Over it game, a beautiful rainbow 9 3 9 .... any flush or straight possibilities are gone ... I'm looking being massive chip leader on the final table, only runner runner 2 Queens can help this guy now ..... again I'll leave the mathematicians to work it out.
The guy to my left said he folded a queen then, so this guy needs the only 2 queens left in the pack to come out now on the turn and river............and they did.

Unbelievable, all I can do is shrug, and leave my chair. Unbelievable. It just sums up my week, kicked in the balls again.

ntlbell · 20-10-2005 10:58am

If that doesn't define a bad beat i don't know what does, what's the url for your blog culchie?

Hitman Actual · 20-10-2005 11:01am

If the money was all-in preflop, then thats the odds you use... So if it was AA against KK all-in preflop, then it's 4/1 for the Aces, end of story. Even if an Ace flopped with two rags, meaning that the KK needs runner-runner kings to win (~1000/1), it's still 4/1. It doesn't matter what order the cards come out in.

Culchie · 20-10-2005 11:05am

lenny_leonard wrote:

If the money was all-in preflop, then thats the odds you use... So if it was AA against KK all-in preflop, then it's 4/1 for the Aces, end of story. Even if an Ace flopped with two rags, meaning that the KK needs runner-runner kings to win (~1000/1), it's still 4/1. It doesn't matter what order the cards come out in.

That might be the technical explanation Lenny, but you know yerself, tell that to the brain when you're a 1000/1 favourite after the flop and suck out .... it's bad !:(

Hitman Actual · 20-10-2005 11:11am

Culchie wrote:

That might be the technical explanation Lenny, but you know yerself, tell that to the brain when you're a 1000/1 favourite after the flop and suck out .... it's bad !:(

Yeah, I know it's a killer. These "bad beats" are just one of my pet hates in poker, it really annoys me!

ntlbell · 20-10-2005 11:11am

lenny_leonard wrote:

If the money was all-in preflop, then thats the odds you use... So if it was AA against KK all-in preflop, then it's 4/1 for the Aces, end of story. Even if an Ace flopped with two rags, meaning that the KK needs runner-runner kings to win (~1000/1), it's still 4/1. It doesn't matter what order the cards come out in.

Really? I always thought the percentages/odds changes as the cards unfold, why do the percentages change on ESPN as the flop/4th/5th street are dealt?

e.g.

Kh9H vs 44

44 slight favourite going in..

flop comes

4 8 2 rainbow

surley the odds on Kh 9h beating trips now has shortened alot?

RuggieBear · 20-10-2005 11:15am

Had this last night... not sure if it is a badbeat story but i was guilty as hell after it.

me 6 6

Flop
10 6 3

I raise and and only one caller.

Turn
3

I go all in and get called...

he turns over a pair of 10s

River
6

Hectorjelly · 20-10-2005 11:16am

ntlbell wrote:

Really? I always thought the percentages/odds changes as the cards unfold, why do the percentages change on ESPN as the flop/4th/5th street are dealt?

They are just talking about what odds you should use/talk about when discussing the bad beat.

Hitman Actual · 20-10-2005 11:16am

ntlbell wrote:

Really? I always thought the percentages/odds changes as the cards unfold, why do the percentages change on ESPN as the flop/4th/5th street are dealt?

The percentages obviously change as the cards come down, but if two players are all-in preflop, then they are betting that one hand will beat the other over five cards. So it really doesn't matter what order the cards are dealt out in. That's my interpretation anyway, but I'm open to argument!

Culchie · 20-10-2005 11:21am

Well what is the furthest you can possibly be ahead/behind?

I presume it's AA V 72o ?

ntlbell · 20-10-2005 11:22am

lenny_leonard wrote:

The percentages obviously change as the cards come down, but if two players are all-in preflop, then they are betting that one hand will beat the other over five cards. So it really doesn't matter what order the cards are dealt out in. That's my interpretation anyway, but I'm open to argument!

It obviously doesn't matter from a betting/calling point of view as there is no more if both are all in, but it might very well matter to your TILTOMETER

ionapaul · 20-10-2005 11:28am

Culchie wrote:

Well what is the furthest you can possibly be ahead/behind?

I presume it's AA V 72o ?

AA is actually further ahead of A7o than 72o (fairly clear when you think about it)

In fact, if you are up against AA you have more chance with 72o than AKo, which again are two cards obviously dominated by the bullets

Ste05 · 20-10-2005 11:31am

Culchie wrote:

Well what is the furthest you can possibly be ahead/behind?

I presume it's AA V 72o ?

I'd say you're right especially if they were the same suits

AhAd v 7h2d (89% v 11%)
AhAd v 2h2d (82.9% v 17.1%)

Ste05 · 20-10-2005 11:33am

ionapaul wrote:

AA is actually further ahead of A7o than 72o (fairly clear when you think about it)

In fact, if you are up against AA you have more chance with 72o than AKo, which again are two cards obviously dominated by the bullets

Correct - AA v A6 (even better) = 93.9% favourite if the 6 is same suit as one of you're A's.

Norwich Fan Rob · 20-10-2005 11:40am

I read somewhere that the worst shape u can possibly be in is if you call KK with K2 off, with the 2 the same suit as one of the K's (slightly worse than AA vs A6 off, as the bare ace has 2 ways of making a str8, ie low and high)

staringelf · 20-10-2005 11:54am

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

I read somewhere that the worst shape u can possibly be in is if you call KK with K2 off, with the 2 the same suit as one of the K's (slightly worse than AA vs A6 off, as the bare ace has 2 ways of making a str8, ie low and high)

beat me to it

yeah KK vs K2 is the worst (i think its something like 8.5 to 1 (can't remember where i read that but i think its around that).
still tho, play the hand 9 times and the K2 will win once on average. just goes to show, when all the money is in preflop you're never totally comfortable

Ste05 · 20-10-2005 12:11pm

KdKh v Kc2d = 94.9% v 5.1%

Very good lads, Are we happy this is the final answer??

RoundTower · 20-10-2005 12:23pm

You are more likely to scoop with K2o against KK than with 72o against 77, regardless of suits.

califano · 20-10-2005 12:23pm

Culchie wrote:

The guy to my left said he folded a queen.

yeah that was the worst beat ive ever read about when you wrote it.
But the guy who said the above should have kept his mouth shut. Nobody should deny another player his funking rights.

staringelf · 20-10-2005 12:59pm

RoundTower wrote:

You are more likely to scoop with K2o against KK than with 72o against 77, regardless of suits.

i'm pretty sure you're not. simply because there's a much greater possiblity of split pots with 72o vs 77 than with K2o vs KK.

eg. if flop comes 8899J - split pot
or any 2 pairs on the board higher than 7's.

therefore, K2o vs KK is much worse.
not that it really matters, its probably only 1 or 2% if anything. either way, it's not looking good for you.

"Bad beat" question (not an actual bad beat)

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