Behind, Split Pot or Ahead?

NickyOD

1/2 NL on Stars

Villain in this hand is an excellent player. I've picked up big hand against big hand against him a a few times and he's played them well losing the minimum when he was behind, including slowing down with Aces when I flopped a set and check calling the nut flush when I made a house. I would leave but the fish at the table are paying off well and I'm up to $380.

I pick up AK on the button. Villain is in the cutoff and raises to $6. (He normally opens for 8) I reraise to $18 and he smooth calls. Flop is K-8-8 rainbow. He checks I bet $25 and he calls. Turn is a 3. There are no possible draws on the board. He checks and I check behind. River is an 8. He bets $150. Hero?

Tackle

Looks like KK. With an almost 2xpot bet I'd fold here.

padraig_f

I'd put your chances of being ahead as pretty negligible, I can't see him calling on the flop out of position with a hand that you now beat.

So it's a choice between a split and losing the pot. On the split you're being laid $150 to win approx $43, so you need to be over 75% sure he hasn't got AA/KK or an 8. I couldn't be that sure so I think I'd fold it.

NickyOD

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RoundTower

I don't think he can be value betting a king because you won't call him with less. He has to have a hand that beats you or be on a total bluff. It is possible he has TT, JJ or QQ and could have called one bet on the flop, but unless you have seen him overbet the pot on the end as a bluff before, you can't call.

Lafortezza

I'd call.

Ste05

I think there's really only 3 hands he can have here, AK, AA and KK, (and a very very small chance QQ) in which case you're only really calling hoping to split the pot.

Although, as you say he is an excellent player, meaning that he probably has you pegged as a good player too, therefore he knows that with this bet, you you can't call without KK. It's a good bet and one that stinks of AK/ a bluff with QQ, but it is just too risky to call.

ianmc38

I'd have to put you ahead here. The smooth call preflop doesn't suggest to me that he has KK. I think a more likely scenario is a smaller pocket pair.

My range i'd have him on would be {33-QQ, AK, KQ}

I think one other possibility is A8s, though that would be loose preflop, but it could possibly be the reason for a smooth call after your reraise.

NickyOD

RoundTower wrote:

I don't think he can be value betting a king because you won't call him with less. He has to have a hand that beats you or be on a total bluff. It is possible he has TT, JJ or QQ and could have called one bet on the flop, but unless you have seen him overbet the pot on the end as a bluff before, you can't call.

Good Analsys. I folded (actually the clock ran out on me) and he was kind enough to flash me Aces. I kept thinking about the $6 preflop open raise from the CO. He almost always raises $8 so I figured it was either to buy the button with a marginal hand or because he wanted action with AA/KK.

He probably knows I'm only going to reraise him here with QQ-AA, AK and that I'll probably fold QQ and AK to a another preflop raise from him so calling with aces is the right play there. I think he probably smooth called the flop bet because he was afraid of me having KK, but once I checked the turn he knows he's ahead.

A big overbet like this from a good player is almost never a bluff. He knows againsst me he doesn't need to bet so much to get me to fold so he is probably hoping I have AK or QQ and will pay him off. He should have bet a lot less on the river.

AmarilloFats

Well PLayed.. It was your check on the turn that allowed you to control the pot size and escape losing the minimum...
I also like the way he played his Aces..

ni han

Hectorjelly

AA made a huge mistake preflop

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

AA made a huge mistake preflop

You think he should jam?

Ste05

Could it be referring to not raising the normal amount, it's what seems to have helped you put him on the hand. Therefore by reducing this bet by $2 look at what he potentially lost.

Although I'd also be interested to see whether HJ would re-raise here too.... Might have got all the money in the pot right here???

Norwich Fan Rob

both pre flop and on the river, a lot of the decisions here depend on player notes.........pre flop with AA, u jam and u will lose a good player, but an average/poor player calls with under pair or AK and u are huge fav..........if he knew u were good enough to get away from QQ, AK, he correctly smooth called...........(even harder to get away from QQ on a baby flop for some people). On the river, when he jams, if u have him down as loose/poor, u think he might sense weakness on your check on the turn, then u call, if u have him down as solid u fold for the reasons mentioned above. A lot of my critical decision are based on watching the players actions in previous hands, and not necessarily on the cards/actions in this hand to date.

Tackle

Hectorjelly wrote:

AA made a huge mistake preflop

He made a fairly big mistake on the river too.

ianmc38

I think AA should've reraised again preflop. Don't see any advantage in a smooth call. he's already got the action he was looking for by getting you to raise his original milking bet. therefore, why not bet again?

Norwich Fan Rob

in response to what ian said, by re raising again over the top of an 18 raise, whilst knowing your opponent is a decent player, u are effectively tabling your hand......no harm seeing a flop with aces 2 handed, if u think your opponent has a high pair.

ianmc38

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

in response to what ian said, by re raising again over the top of an 18 raise, whilst knowing your opponent is a decent player, u are effectively tabling your hand......no harm seeing a flop with aces 2 handed, if u think your opponent has a high pair.

Very true, was a hasty reply.

Hectorjelly

I mean in the size of his original raise. Why leak any information like that.