WILMA (Twenty Four)

billy the squid

This was lost in the recent upgrade. So, here is what has happened. The NHC declared TD #24, Tropical storm Wilma at 10am (irish time) yesterday. In the last 24 hours, wilma has drifted to the south of the Cayman Islands and has gradually strengthened. Also in the last 24 hours, Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for part of its coastline.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a hurricane watch has been in effect for both of the Cayman Islands for the past few days.



Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/152137.shtml

NHC forcast Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/220733W_sm.gif

All forcast models
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

Radar - Yukatan Peninsula Mexico
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad%2dcanc.jpg

Another Central America Radar
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/rmtc_rainfall1hr3_loop.html

Media - Vibe 98.9 Cayman Islands
http://www.vibefm.ky

billy the squid

wilma now a cat1 hurricane. forcast to become category 3 before hitting the southwestern coast of florida.

billy the squid

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES WILMA A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

Hurricane watches have been issued for Western Cuba, The Isle of Youth and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. All other watches and warnings are still in effect for Hondures and the Cayman Islands.

If Wilma is going to be the last named storm of 2005, then you can expect this hurricane season to go out with a bang, a very loud one at that.

I would expect Category 4 when it reaches Florida.

Also the minimum central pressure has been reported at 954 mb.

Mothman

WOW What has just happened overnight????? :eek:


000
WTNT34 KNHC 190552
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 400 MILES...640
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ninebeanrows

Hurricane Hunters find a Cat 5 cane with a pressure of 892mb the lowest
since sometime in the 1930's..

Still deepening and possibly becoming the deepest Atlantic Hurricane in
History..

This is like a Massive Tornado with Hurricane winds just extenting 15 miles
from the center! Can one imagine the pressure gradient. It would
be almost possible to see the sea being pushed down..

Astonishing.

A 60mb drop in 7 hours..

Words cannot describe such a drop.. It's unfathomable

Mothman

Maybe they'll have to add category 6 to the scale!!

000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

Mothman

Hard to keep up. :eek:

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190835
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0900Z WED OCT 19 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 82.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 884 MBEYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 82.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.2W

Mothman

000
Wtnt34 Knhc 190835
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 16
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Wed Oct 19 2005

...air Force Reconnaissance Plane Reported 884 Mb...the Lowest
Minimum Pressure Ever Measured In A Hurricane In The Atlantic
Basin...this Value Should Be Used With Caution Until Calibrated...

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The East Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula From Cabo Catoche To Punta Gruesa.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect In Cuba For The Provinces Of
Matanzas Westward Through Pinar Del Rio...and For The Isle Of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Honduras From The
Honduras/nicaragua Border Westward To Cabo Camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For
The Cayman Islands.

All Interests In The Florida Keys And The Florida Peninsula Should
Closely Monitor The Progress Of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located Near
Latitude 17.2 North...longitude 82.5 West Or About 170 Miles...
270 Km...south-southwest Of Grand Cayman And About 365 Miles...
590 Km...southeast Of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. A
Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 175 Mph...280 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Wilma Is A Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Expected
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles... 30 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 160 Miles...260 Km.

An Air Force Plane Just Measured A minimum Central Pressure Of 884
Mb...26.10 Inches. this Is The Lowest Pressure Ever Recorded In A
Hurricane In The Atlantic Basin. However...this Pressure Value
Should Be Used With Caution Until It Is Fully Calibrated.

Wilma Is Expected To Produce Storm Total Accumulations Of 10 To 15
Inches...with Local Amounts Near 25 Inches In Mountainous Terrain
Across Cuba Through Friday. Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 5
To 10 Inches...with Local Amounts Of 15 Inches...are Possible
Across The Cayman Islands...swan Island...and Jamaica Through
Thursday. Storm Total Accumulations Of 4 To 6 Inches...with
Isolated Amounts Of 8 To 12 Inches...are Possible From Honduras
Northward To The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico Through Thursday.

Repeating The 5 Am Edt Position...17.2 N... 82.5 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 8 Mph. maximum Sustained Winds...175
Mph. minimum Central Pressure... 884 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 8 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 11 Am
Edt.

Forecaster Avila

billy the squid

Well well well, what have we ehre then?

looks like it went from 110 to 175 mph in the space of six hours. just waiting now for the 12Z advisory

anyhoo heres some more mejia links and stuff

US 1 Radio Florida Keys
http://www.us1radio.com/

NBC 6 Miami Florida
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html

CBS News 4 Miami Florida
http://www.wfor.com/

Radio WJNO Miami Florida
http://www.wjno.com

Radar
Key west
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

Miami Florida
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

maquiladora

Dr. Jeff Masters :

"There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 85 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 884 mb from a dropsonde, and the meteorologist reported an even lower 881 mb pressure extrapolated from 10,000 feet flight altitude. This easily bests the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. The eye of Wilma during this round of intense deepening oscillated between 2 and 4 nautical miles, and the area of hurricane force winds only covered an area up to 15 miles from the center. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen. The Hurricane Season of 2005 keeps topping itself with new firsts, and now boasts three of the five most intense hurricanes of all time--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma."

maquiladora

882 MB now

billy the squid

the eye is like a pinhole in the middle of Wilma
http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/24L.WILMA/ssmi/vis1km/20051019.1315.goes-12.vis.1km.WILMA.24L.jpg

sirpsycho

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html good pics here

jeepers
I read that first as 982 mb and thought how was that a hurricane.

Nasty

lucernarian

I didn't even think pressure of below 900 mb was really possible, but 882 mb? I would expect boyle's law to have a noticeable effect compared to ordinary atmospheric conditions. What a monster of a thing! I see from the latest advisory that Wilma has weakened slightly but even still, I'm concerned about the effects on those areas where this hurricane makes landfall. Seems like it's Florida's turn now for a Cat 5 if the forecasts are right.

maquiladora

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I didn't even think pressure of below 900 mb was really possible, but 882 mb? I would expect boyle's law to have a noticeable effect compared to ordinary atmospheric conditions. What a monster of a thing! I see from the latest advisory that Wilma has weakened slightly but even still, I'm concerned about the effects on those areas where this hurricane makes landfall. Seems like it's Florida's turn now for a Cat 5 if the forecasts are right.

Its a Cat 5 now, but not likely to be a Cat 5 by the time it makes landfall. But still, a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 would do a lot of damage to whever it makes landfall (western cuba, florida etc). At least theres plenty of time to move.

billy the squid

Pressure is still below 900mb. The pressure fell even further than Gilbert earlier today. I wonder will Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula create a wind tunnel resulting in this spinning up again.

sirpsycho

CAT4 now but could be a CAT5 again today

billy the squid

Still forcast to re-strengthen later today, hwoever winds have fallen slightly to 145 mph and pressure is now at 910 mb according to the 12Z advisory.

Outer bands are starting to show up on Key West Long range radar.

kindredspirit

Hurricane tracker here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

billy the squid

winds are up a little from 145 to 150 mph. pressure at 918 mb. Interesting the pressure is going up while the winds are going up as well.

billy the squid

Wilma has made landfall in Mexico.

on an unrelated note, there is a new Invest to the south-east of Puerto Rico.
http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/99L.INVEST/ssmi/vis1km/20051021.1245.goes-12.vis.1km.INVEST.99L.jpg

billy the squid

While wilma pounds the Yucatan, you might want to check this out

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

Alpha could be with us by Monday.

Scubadevils

Saw this link over on TWO, description and amazing photos of Wilma in Cancun. Unreal.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

billy the squid

Tropical Depression #25 has formed to the south of Haiti. and is forcast to have the name ALPHA by later tonight!

as for wilma, expected to be at msot a category 2 hurricane when it hits florida, it has been pounding the yukatan peninsula for the past 24 hours. somethign tells me that the whole place will be leveled by the time this moves on.

maquiladora

billy the squid wrote:

Tropical Depression #25 has formed to the south of Haiti. and is forcast to have the name ALPHA by later tonight!

as for wilma, expected to be at msot a category 2 hurricane when it hits florida, it has been pounding the yukatan peninsula for the past 24 hours. somethign tells me that the whole place will be leveled by the time this moves on.

It has a chance to strengthen again before it reaches Florida, once it gets out over the warm waters again.

billy the squid

maquiladora wrote:

It has a chance to strengthen again before it reaches Florida, once it gets out over the warm waters again.

well so far it is showing no signs of strengthening. Its been stuck at 100 mph sustained winds for the past several hours after it emerged into the gulf of Mexico.

New hurricane warnings issued for the Bahamas. as it stands now the northerern Bahamas are under a hurricane warning because of Wilma, and the southern Bahamas are under a tropical storm warning because of Alpha.

billy the squid

Direct link to nbc 6
http://mfile.akamai.com/12908/live/reflector:35252.asx

incedentily if you get bored they are broadcasting their normal programmes online only
http://mfile.akamai.com/12908/live/reflector:35251.asx

billy the squid

max sustained winds now up to 110 mph. also have heard on us radio webstream that 80 percent of the residents of the florida keys have decided to ride the storm out.

update, as of the 03z advisory Wilma is now a Category 3 hurricane

maquiladora

Max flight level winds now found at 130k. Continuing to gain strength before landfall.

billy the squid

matt drudge has put together a nice little collage of live radar and satelite images

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm

There is a real possibility that Wilma and Alpha could merge to form a superstorm in the Atlantic.

ro2

Guy on Fox news nearly got hit by a sign a few minutes ago.

http://60hud.com/live.asx

billy the squid

was it Geraldo, please say it was Geraldo

thanks for the fox live link by the way

anyone wanting to watch the nbc6 stream with out all the onscreen weather plus crap can do so by clicking the second link in post 28

also keep an ear on http://www.mroe94fm.com for coverage of Wilma in the Bahamas after it leaves florida.

ro2

It wasn't Geraldo or Bill O'Reilly unfortunately. I'm sure they'll have it on the website later.

irishgeo

we have been lucky this year. We have not had the reamins of ones of these hit us yet.

irishgeo

billy the squid wrote:

matt drudge has put together a nice little collage of live radar and satelite images

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm

There is a real possibility that Wilma and Alpha could merge to form a superstorm in the Atlantic.

http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/25L.ALPHA/ssmi/vis1km/20051024.1915.goes-12.vis.1km.ALPHA.25L.jpg

Its looking like wilma may swallow up alpha.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

billy the squid

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

alpha has been downgraded to a trough now, I can't imagine alpha adding much to wilma. there were fears that alpha and wilma combined would make a superstorm. Can't see that happening though.

billy the squid

wilma is really belting it. moving northeast at nearly 40mph. and it is strengthened too according to the 00z advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242357.shtml

billy the squid

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 47 MPH...76 KM/HR... AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PASS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TUESDAY MORNING... AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

has this not broken enough records? its going for the fastest ever hurricane record ever too?

billy the squid

And so comes to an end the long and happy life of the last of the named storms. keep an eye out for BETA

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.