Hand History ~ Opinions

Iago

Villian in the game is a very loose player, I've notes on him from before stating that he's a poor player at best, semi-aggresive preflop, very aggresive post flop, but he's only been at this table for about 15 minutes.

In that time he's gone all-in (without a raise in front of him) 3 times preflop, and has bet 3 times the pot on the flop on 4 occasions. He's been playing so loosely that I'm just waiting for the right opportunity to get all my chips in the middle with him. He's gone from $100 down to $5 back to $100 and then down to his current amount.

The only hand I've seen him play to showdown he called a $5 preflop raise. Flop came down 7 2 Q rainbow. He flat called a $10 bet, Turn came down 8, he flat called a $10 bet, river was a 2 and both players checked. His opponent won the hand with A7s for 2 pair...

Was this the opportunity to take? Thoughts...

FullTiltPoker Game #229313649: Table Brush - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:21:24 ET - 2005/10/11
Seat 1: Mowgli ($30)
Seat 2: vern27 ($128.34)
Seat 3: rar1955 ($133.60)
Seat 4: golly ($137.85)
Seat 5: VILLIAN($59.70)
Seat 6: Gymani ($76.90), is sitting out
Seat 7: eatatdans ($73.50)
Seat 8: jdoe ($147)
Seat 9: izgubicu ($115.45)
VILLIAN posts the small blind of $0.50
eatatdans posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to golly [7h 8h]
jdoe calls $1
izgubicu folds
Mowgli folds
vern27 folds
rar1955 calls $1
golly calls $1
Villian calls $1
eatatdans checks
*** FLOP *** [8d Qh 2h]
Villian bets $58.70 and is all in
eatatdans folds
jdoe folds
rar1955 folds
golly ????

bohsman

As much as it hurts to fold wait for a better oportunity

RasTa

I'd call but thats my fav draw. Could be on a flush draw himself though with the all-in, but i still wouldnt lay it down

Daithio

I think Oscar's right. It looks like an ace high flush draw but you don't have enough information. Only $1 invested too. Even if he is on the ace high flush draw with 2 overcards you're only about 50 50 anyway. Fold.

ianmc38

Thats a tough one. If he's holding a Q or a higher flush draw you're in trouble. I think a laydown would be the sensible option.

impr0v

bohsman wrote:

As much as it hurts to fold wait for a better oportunity

agree

Corben Dallas

only reason you could call this is because hes known to you as a bad player, he could Kh or Ah(one heart) and be raising to represent a made flush flop.

if hes has two hearts u've lost (8high is prob not good enuff) , if u put him on anything else call (but only cause hes got gills).

Amaru

Its not exactly a monster laydown, is it? You have second pair (poor kicker) and a flush draw, which isn't even the nuts. Why risk so much money calling with such a weak hand? I'd say he has the queen, and is trying to prevent people drawing to the flush.

AmarilloFats

I think it's a fold..Taking his range of hands into account...I think a call is -EV.
against a Q your 50/50, if he has Q with a heart your a 45%dog ..woof.
your a big dog against 2 pair and set hands
your a slight fav over ATh....56%...

So unless you think he'd do this with shiite a good % of the time...

Iago

I'm not convinced that this is as easy a fold as the current posters think, when faced with this player in particular

As I see it his potential hand ranges are below,

If he has a Q with a low heart then I'm 47% to win the hand
If he has a higher heart with a rag card then I'm 82% favourite
If he has an overpair without a heart then I'm 50/50
If he has 2 hearts with at least one higher than my 8 then I'm 51% to win
If he has a Q with no heart then I'm 50/50
If he has two lower hearts then I'm 95% favourite

Now there is a question as to whether with $1 invested it's worth throwing nearly $60 after it, and it's not something I would normally consider, but against this particular guy I felt I had a reasonable chance of being ahead...so it made it a harder decision than it first seems.

AmarilloFats

Iago wrote:

....
If he has a higher heart with a rag card then I'm 82% favourite
If he has two lower hearts then I'm 95% favourite.....
QUOTE]
dead right Iago. If these are significant possibilities...Then call call call.....Would he push with AhX here...???
I hope u called and see sawed 45h or 56h...

NickyOD

You have to fold. Making this call will only increase your variance long term. Over time you will only roughly break even with a call here.

AmarilloFats

NickyOD wrote:

You have to fold. Making this call will only increase your variance long term. Over time you will only roughly break even with a call here.

Don't you think we should always "make a read"..ie put villain on a range of hands add weight to each of his possible holdings..look at pot odds and take the course of action we think is best EV?????????????

NickyOD

AmarilloFats wrote:

Don't you think we should always "make a read"..ie put villain on a range of hands add weight to each of his possible holdings..look at pot odds and take the course of action we think is best EV?????????????

I used to be of the same opinion, that its beyond stupid to give up any +EV situation but now I prefer to wait for better oportunities. I find when I lose several of these marginal situations it effects the way I play and so I prefer to have a better overlay on the pot odds. I used to overplay AK quite a lot preflop and found I wasn't making as much as I should be with it.

Anyway given the action I think the most likely scenarios are that he has a Queen or has a higher flush draw which means its a fold.

Samba

NickyOD wrote:

I used to be of the same opinion, that its beyond stupid to give up any +EV situation but now I prefer to wait for better oportunities. I find when I lose several of these marginal situations it effects the way I play and so I prefer to have a better overlay on the pot odds. I used to overplay AK quite a lot preflop and found I wasn't making as much as I should be with it.

Anyway given the action I think the most likely scenarios are that he has a Queen or has a higher flush draw which means its a fold.

On The Nail Nicky, wait for a better opporunity, by passing up these marginal situations your variance is reduced which in return reduces the possibility of mental weakness affecting your play. (oh btw, I know you won the hand Iago just by our defensive post ) many poor players tend to believe that when they have flush a draw especially when it is A high, they will hit.

It's shocking how many players push on flush draws as it's clearly a losing play.


Here is a classic example.

My very first 500 1v1 STT of the day (it set a bad tone) 2000 starting chips. On the button, very first hand in I raise to 100 with 7c 8c, the flop comes 5h 6c 9h. He goes all in, I call. Flips over some raggedy ass flush draw like Q9 and hits on the turn

I was delighted to see the flush draw, just not that it hit and needless to say he did not sit back down, these poor fish rarely do, unless of course they lose, they then make it their mission to prove who is the better player.

Hectorjelly

You cant state categorically that you should fold this, and then ask when asked why say that because losing big pots with marginal hands puts YOU on tilt. If losing big pots puts you on tilt then sure fold, but otherwise you should definitely consider calling. If losing big pots puts you on tilt then I think you have a problem that you should consider dealing with. Anyway back to the hand:


1) Your opponents range ie probably very wide. He could have all types of crap that you are dominating, like A2 (no flush draw) and so on. I think you are definitely +EV against his possible range. So folding is probably a mistake. If he just has a flush draw you are 60% fav.
2) Its very hard for you to be in bad shape. You definitely have some outs.
3) Its very good for your image. A good player should take all the opportunities he can to present the image of a wild and wreckless player as long as it doesnt cost him too much. Thats why its good to make big EV Neutral calls. You want to give the impression of being a nit so you get action on your big hands.


If your not properly bankrolled or you have an aversion to gambling then theres no problem in folding, against a player like this you will usually find a safer spot, but calling is better.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

Its not exactly a monster laydown, is it? You have second pair (poor kicker) and a flush draw, which isn't even the nuts. Why risk so much money calling with such a weak hand? I'd say he has the queen, and is trying to prevent people drawing to the flush.

A pair and a flush draw is considered a very strong holding

RMcG

Call in an instant....if he wins and hes as big a goose as you say you can get it back in a flash anyway CALL CALL CALL

hotspur

I disagree with the range of hands Iago mentions (course it may just be that I've seen Othello too many times), this guy in the small blind could also have:
Q8 no heart - you're 33%
Q2 no heart - you're 40%
set of 8's - 28%
set of 2's - 30%
set of Q's - 28%
If he's going all in left and right then he'll probably go all in with these too, it's a huge bet to call compared to the current pot based on trying to put a moron on a flush draw when that's pretty much what you have yourself. The guy is obviously there for the taking, unless you have to leave the table this hand, just wait and take him when you actually have him.

Iago

Hectorjelly wrote:

1) Your opponents range ie probably very wide. He could have all types of crap that you are dominating, like A2 (no flush draw) and so on. I think you are definitely +EV against his possible range. So folding is probably a mistake. If he just has a flush draw you are 60% fav.
2) Its very hard for you to be in bad shape. You definitely have some outs.
3) Its very good for your image. A good player should take all the opportunities he can to present the image of a wild and wreckless player as long as it doesnt cost him too much. Thats why its good to make big EV Neutral calls. You want to give the impression of being a nit so you get action on your big hands.


If your not properly bankrolled or you have an aversion to gambling then theres no problem in folding, against a player like this you will usually find a safer spot, but calling is better.

This is more the line of thinking I had. I figured that his range was huge, including a total bluff and that left me with a decision to make. I also felt that calling here would do two things. Firstly if I called and he was ahead and I outdrew him, he would reload and continue to leak money to the table (which hopefully I could take advantage of), secondly calling here could be seen as an indication of loose play. I play relatively tightly in these games and had been on this table, with the result that I was getting no action on my big hands.

Anyway I called, Turn was the Ad and the river was the Qs. He turned over Qd 3c for trips and won the pot. This was among the range of hands that I put him on, I definitely felt that at worst I had 11 outs but I could be ahead, and on the basis of my read on this guy I felt the call was the right play.


Later on I managed to get all-in preflop against this guy and won most of that money back when my Aks held up against his JTs. He left soon after that so I didn't recoup all my losses, but I'll come across him again I'm sure.

Amaru

Hectorjelly wrote:

A pair and a flush draw is considered a very strong holding

I think this might have to do with the difference in opinion

If your not properly bankrolled or you have an aversion to gambling then theres no problem in folding, against a player like this you will usually find a safer spot, but calling is better.

I have trouble calling off half my stack with second pair and a draw, especially with so little invested in the pot. Its probably a coin flip situation, so why risk so much if you yourself say that there'll probably be a better spot to bust him if you exercise some patience?

Samba

There are many considerations to be made, what nicky has pointed out is one of many and yes, If I was to call and lose this hand 10 times over, id be a bit peeved, not about the loss, but how I played the hand and it might affect my play, so I would be inclined to get up a take a break at this point. Not all of us are as mentally stable as some at the poker table, infact I am sure all of us have experienced a moment of tilt in our time as poker players.


Given the range of hands Iago pointed out there is not a sufficient edge to justify a call here with so little invested in the pot, I also feel the range is a little hopeful, he stuck his entire stack in, it's for a good reason.

Had you passed up this situation and excercised a little more patience, it would have increased your roll that bit more, flipping coins in cash play will not put you into profit in the long run.

f your not properly bankrolled or you have an aversion to gambling then theres no problem in folding

I can only presume this comment of "not properly bankrolled" is due to the fact that I mentioned a hand from a 500 game if not, why are you mentioning this? It is plainly obvious. the rule for me and 1v1 STT's is 10 buyins, no less, don't be so presumptious that people are advising people to fold here on the basis of fear of loss due to a lack of bankroll management.

The fact remains it's a marginal hand with little invested in the pot, he put his entire stack in and he knows that he will get a call based on previous play.

Fold.

Marq

Having read through this thread I still haven't seen one good argument for folding. If he were the sort of player that would leave the table after either doubling up or losing his first buy-in, I might consider folding, but without that information, I ahve to call.

ianmc38

NickyOD wrote:

You have to fold. Making this call will only increase your variance long term. Over time you will only roughly break even with a call here.

Thats how i'd feel as well.

Samba

Marq wrote:

Having read through this thread I still haven't seen one good argument for folding. If he were the sort of player that would leave the table after either doubling up or losing his first buy-in, I might consider folding, but without that information, I ahve to call.

On what basis would you call Marq?

I have to agree with Hector on his points about table image and future action but this is all on the persumption he does not have you in bad shape, the player in question could have a huge range of hands and narrowing them down is difficult.

NickyOD

Marq wrote:

Having read through this thread I still haven't seen one good argument for folding. If he were the sort of player that would leave the table after either doubling up or losing his first buy-in, I might consider folding, but without that information, I have to call.

Why do you have to call?

The problem with putting our Villain on a range of hands here is when we do the math we assume he is equally likely to have any of the hands in that range. So if his range is 22, 88, QQ-AA, 82o, A queen with Any kicker or any 2 hearts then he is a very slight favourite. With the money already in the pot we make on average approximately $3.75 minus rake by calling. Woohooo! Oh and don't forget if this is a live game you will also tip when you win so basically you just about break even.

Board: 8d Qh 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.3915 % 49.29% 00.10% { 8h7h }
Hand 2: 50.6085 % 50.51% 00.10% { QQ+, 88, 22, AhKh, AQs, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Q2s+, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Th9h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 6h3h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, AQo, KQo, Q2o+, 82o }

However, since the villain is risking $58 to win $4 we have got to assume he much more likely to have something stronger than a flush draw and probably has top pair minimum. Even if a flush draw is 2% less likely in the above calcualtion then this is a defintely fold. The amount of money you lose long term here increases with the likelyhood of him not having a flush draw.

Marq

Question:

NickyOD wrote:

Why do you have to call?

Answer:

NickyOD wrote:

With the money already in the pot we make on average approximately $3.75 minus rake by calling.

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

so I would be inclined to get up a take a break at this point. Not all of us are as mentally stable as some at the poker table, infact I am sure all of us have experienced a moment of tilt in our time as poker players.

true so fold then, Im not going to though

Samba wrote:

Had you passed up this situation and excercised a little more patience, it would have increased your roll that bit more, flipping coins in cash play will not put you into profit in the long run.

Flipping coins where you get 1:1.2 on your money will make you very rich indeed

Samba wrote:

I can only presume this comment of "not properly bankrolled" is due to the fact that I mentioned a hand from a 500 game if not, why are you mentioning this? It is plainly obvious. the rule for me and 1v1 STT's is 10 buyins, no less, don't be so presumptious that people are advising people to fold here on the basis of fear of loss due to a lack of bankroll management.

I didnt read that thread and it was just a general comment, if i was taking a shot at 10 20 I would fold this. I was just making the point that allthough this is a call, its so marginal that if you wanted to reduce your varience folding is ok too.

Samba wrote:

The fact remains it's a marginal hand with little invested in the pot, he put his entire stack in and he knows that he will get a call based on previous play.

If fish were able to think rationally along these lines then they wouldnt be fish.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

I think this might have to do with the difference in opinion....I have trouble calling off half my stack with second pair and a draw,

You have an equity in the pot that is probably over 50%. That is more important than what exactly you have. I think that is where we have a difference of opinion, because you dont think in terms of pot equity.

Amaru wrote:

Its probably a coin flip situation, so why risk so much if you yourself say that there'll probably be a better spot to bust him if you exercise some patience?

This make no sense. Why not call and try and win the money? If its 50 50 then folding shows a fear of gambling that makes me think you have chosen the wrong hobby.

Amaru

This make no sense. Why not call and try and win the money? If its 50 50 then folding shows a fear of gambling that makes me think you have chosen the wrong hobby.

I think its that that makes no sense. If you were to actively seek situations that are 50/50, then why bother playing poker at all? Why not play roulette, which is offering you pretty much those odds? If i'm confident that i can beat somebody through a combination of skill and trapping, then there is absolutely no need for me to rely on coinflips situations to take his money. And with the guy as trigger happy as he was, it was only a matter of time before a better spot came up. Just look at the testimony. Later on, Iago was able to get his money in when he was a much bigger favourite, and won. So if somebody is being reckless with their stack, would you rather luck or skill be the deciding factor in whether you get their money or not?

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

I think its that that makes no sense. If you were to actively seek situations that are 50/50, then why bother playing poker at all? Why not play roulette, which is offering you pretty much those odds? If i'm confident that i can beat somebody through a combination of skill and trapping, then there is absolutely no need for me to rely on coinflips situations to take his money. And with the guy as trigger happy as he was, it was only a matter of time before a better spot came up. Just look at the testimony. Later on, Iago was able to get his money in when he was a much bigger favourite, and won. So if somebody is being reckless with their stack, would you rather luck or skill be the deciding factor in whether you get their money or not?

You are missing the point, Its not an either or situation, you can call this and still "trap" him later on. Great players take every single edge they can, because that is the way to the most profit. The only proviso on this is if losing a marginal edge situations makes it likely you wont be able to take advantage of a greater edge later. Hence if this was a tournament or as Marq pointed out you thought if he won he might leave, or if you werent comfortable losing that much; then and only then should you fold.

In fact calling this means that there is a 40% odd chance that you will be able to get even MORE money into the pot as a huge favourite.

NickyOD

Marq wrote:

Originally Posted by NickyOD
Why do you have to call?
Answer:
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyOD
With the money already in the pot we make on average approximately $3.75 minus rake by calling.

Hey don't take my quotes out of context. I went on to say he is much more likely to be ahead than to have a draw which is why its a clear fold. I don't deny that it is wrong to pass up any +EV oportunity in a cash game but long term you are more likely to lose money in this spot.

Amaru

You are missing the point, Its not an either or situation, you can call this and still "trap" him later on. Great players take every single edge they can, because that is the way to the most profit. The only proviso on this is if losing a marginal edge situations makes it likely you wont be able to take advantage of a greater edge later. Hence if this was a tournament or as Marq pointed out you thought if he won he might leave, or if you werent comfortable losing that much; then and only then should you fold.

Why do you assume you have the edge though? If you read back to my original post, i correctly pegged him for a queen trying to prevent the draw. This is a pretty standard play, so i'm not overly excited i was right. So if i trust my read and he has a queen, I'm only 50.1% favourite to win, meaning with the rake included that this is probably not a profitable play. If his kicker is any heart, he doesn't have the edge at all anymore, being between a 45-48% dog. So how is this a profitable play long term?

As far as this

In fact calling this means that there is a 40% odd chance that you will be able to get even MORE money into the pot as a huge favourite.

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you talking about that particular hand, or something later on, as wasn't the villain all in at this point?

The Troll

Amaru wrote:

Why do you assume you have the edge though? If you read back to my original post, i correctly pegged him for a queen trying to prevent the draw. This is a pretty standard play, so i'm not overly excited i was right. So if i trust my read and he has a queen, I'm only 50.1% favourite to win, meaning with the rake included that this is probably not a profitable play. If his kicker is any heart, he doesn't have the edge at all anymore, being between a 45-48% dog. So how is this a profitable play long term?

As far as this


I'm not sure what you mean. Are you talking about that particular hand, or something later on, as wasn't the villain all in at this point?

Have to agree with this, not a good play to call.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

Why do you assume you have the edge though? If you read back to my original post, i correctly pegged him for a queen trying to prevent the draw. This is a pretty standard play, so i'm not overly excited i was right.

Betting $50 into a pot of $3 is never standard play. And a guy who will do this is going to do the same with a flush draw, or maybe even bottom pair etc etc.

Amaru wrote:

So if i trust my read and he has a queen, I'm only 50.1% favourite to win, meaning with the rake included that this is probably not a profitable play. If his kicker is any heart, he doesn't have the edge at all anymore, being between a 45-48% dog. So how is this a profitable play long term?

Because he will have a heart for a kicker less than 1/5 of the time? Because the rake is a lot less than your edge?


I just meant that if you lost the hand the money all goes to the vilain.

Amaru

Betting $50 into a pot of $3 is never standard play. And a guy who will do this is going to do the same with a flush draw, or maybe even bottom pair etc etc.

I see it as a standard play (not a good play, just a standard one) at the micro limits. To me, he could only have had top pair, or better. They always bet big because they've heard that you have to bet big so people pay to make their draw, and take it too far. Players like that don't call their whole stack off with a draw, especially one thats not the nuts. I've seen this plenty, so i don't think it's that unusual.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

I see it as a standard play (not a good play, just a standard one) at the micro limits. To me, he could only have had top pair, or better. They always bet big because they've heard that you have to bet big so people pay to make their draw, and take it too far. Players like that don't call their whole stack off with a draw, especially one thats not the nuts. I've seen this plenty, so i don't think it's that unusual.

Iago wrote:

Villian in the game is a very loose player, I've notes on him from before stating that he's a poor player at best, semi-aggresive preflop, very aggresive post flop, but he's only been at this table for about 15 minutes.

In that time he's gone all-in (without a raise in front of him) 3 times preflop, and has bet 3 times the pot on the flop on 4 occasions. He's been playing so loosely that I'm just waiting for the right opportunity to get all my chips in the middle with him. He's gone from $100 down to $5 back to $100 and then down to his current amount.

This does not seem like the actions of someone waiting for top pair

Waylander

I am not sure I would have made the call here, whether it would prove to be the correct decision or not. Having said that I agree with HJ that he could have a wide range of hands. I would not restrict his hands to top pair only. I think it would be likely that a player would make this bet on a draw.

Amaru

Hectorjelly wrote:

This does not seem like the actions of someone waiting for top pair

Who said he was waiting for top pair? I said his play was typical of somebody who flopped top pair with a draw on the board.

Also, as far as this

Because he will have a heart for a kicker less than 1/5 of the time? Because the rake is a lot less than your edge?

If you're right in your 1/5 estimation, then 4/5 times he'll be 50.1%, or +0.1 favourite. In the other times when he does have the heart for the kicker, Iago is at least a 47.2%, or -2.8 dog. At least. So doing the maths on it

4 X 0.1 = 0.4
1 X -2.8 = -2.8

---

Total -2.4

So for every 5 times he makes this same play, cumatively it'll be a loser, winning only 47.6% of the time. And its a lot worse every time the heart is higher than his highest card, in this case an 8. And thats not even taking into account the rake. So can you still justify making the call here as a long term winner?

Iago

I thought this might cause a lively debate! It's interesting to see different viewpoints, at the time I was torn as to which decision to make, and although I would normally consider folding here I felt that against this player I could legimately call, reasoning below.

The problem with the post hand analysis is that you're completing it with knowledge of what he was holding. Granted you're doing it on the basis of his likely hand, but the way he was playing he could easily have been holding A8o or K8o with no hearts, equally he could have been holding a total bluff or 77, 66. He was as likely to go all-in here with those holdings as he was with Q rag. His previous pattern of play meant that although this was a 50/50 or maybe slightly less than 50/50 shot, I could easily have been way further ahead than that.

I felt that any 8, 7 or heart would win this hand for me, that gave me 13 outs twice and based on how he had been playing I felt it was worth a gamble. There's no disputing it was a gamble, and sure I could have played safe and folded waiting for a better opportunity but that may not have come.

In addition I had the added benefit of changing my table image, this call highlights that I'm a gambler, someone willing to take a chance on a coin flip, maybe even a loose player, win or lose this is a good thing as far as I'm concerned. and this would lead to me getting more action in hands where I was holding the best hand by far. With those considerations I still believe the call was the right move in those circumstances.