Global Warming "past the point of no return"

angry_fox

Heres a story on a scientific report that global warming is now unstoppable.

A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.

Pretty scary stuff.....

Danno

It is very scary stuff indeed, I seen in The National Geogaphic Magazine last year where a 1978 and a 2003 picture of the Arctic Ice Cap was, boy it was spookey to see the differences, nearly 40% gone!

There were 600 miles of what was ice now wide open water.

daveirl

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fergalbreen

It is scary stuff and I've also heard numerous reports that change is unavoidable.
It's why the web site is called CombatClimateChange.ie and not StopClimateChange.ie

Tough stuff... but apparently true.
So, do we give in or try to make a difference, mitigate?

daveirl

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Danno

Dangerous talk there daveirl - look at everything that happened when New Orleans was hit - imagine the mayhem in Cork city if the same storm hit???

Supercell

From an Irish perspective this isnt really a bad thing truth be told.
We will more likely have warmer drier summers, but wetter milder winters, in essense a med type climate, those in the far north may be considerably wetter in winter but even so, should still benifit from warmer summers.
Artic ice melt wont lead to sea leval rising (its already in the water) though there will be some sea rise due to thermal expansion , but this isnt a huge problem in this country.
Globaly this will no doubt be very bad for some areas..but for us in Ireland, this may overall be benificial (unless you like snow ).

Supercell

I suppose in the interests of comparison I should point out the negatives close to home, this would probably be utterly devastating to to Spain , Portugal and northern Africa as they will become deserts..a process that scarily enough may already have started.
In essance the azores high would migrate north and keep us dry in summer, and retreat a little in winter...Spain and co dont ever get freed from its effects. One only has to look at the synoptic charts for a lot of this year to see the parallels with with this forcast.

Doper Than U

I suppose the fact that we are utterly dependant on our current climate in order to grow food is irrelevent to those who wish for warmer summers? Sure, we can grow food for hotter climates, but the whole idea is that you have a relatively stable and predictable weather system. Which of course we won't. And I thought that Europe would suffer another ice age once the gulf stream was cut off due to the excess water from the melting ice caps... it's already been cut off by 1/5th, so just 4 more to go!

daveirl

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Supercell

Doper Than U wrote:

I suppose the fact that we are utterly dependant on our current climate in order to grow food is irrelevent to those who wish for warmer summers? Sure, we can grow food for hotter climates, but the whole idea is that you have a relatively stable and predictable weather system. Which of course we won't. And I thought that Europe would suffer another ice age once the gulf stream was cut off due to the excess water from the melting ice caps... it's already been cut off by 1/5th, so just 4 more to go!

Thing is , it is predictable, its happening in a linear fashion as is pretty much doing exactly what is predicted.
A warmer Ireland the weather if anything becomes more predictable..ie in summer we know its going to be dry and in winter its going to be wet...if anything its harder to predict the weather here now than it may be 10 -30 years down the road.

Think atlantic facing southern France today for what it will probably be like here in about 30 years time..when i'm of retiring age..this country might have a lovely climate to live out my years in warmth and comfort.

daveirl

daveirl wrote:

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I did hear a statistic though that the incidence of cat 4 and cat 5 hurricanes in the last five years has doubled and that is can be directly linked to global warming.
While there has been an increased incidence of storms in the last year-theres been a definite doubling in the number that have strenghtened to at least cat 4.
I'll dig out that information when I have time.

Saruman

I should point out that global warming is not a man made thing... Sure we increased the rate a bit but as far as i know this has been going on well before the industrial revolution and we started throwing toxins in the air. In fact, and i could be wrong.. but i think the earth has been getting warmer since the ice age.

Also its something to do with the sun. It has cycles or something like that and we are in a warmer cycle now. Its what is believed to have cause the last ice age, the sun was in a colder cycle then. Im not sure exactly what causes it.. no one knows for sure but a combination of all these natural effects combined with our own muppetry has left us heading towards a future of climate change.

Supercell

Earthman, interested to hear your take on how people in the agricultural business will deal with change as it seems likely to develop.
Do you feel that you can adapt to warmer drier summers and wetter milder winters?
Have to admit i'm pretty clueless as to how the agriculture business deals with change and wheter this kind of climate regime is something that is favourable to our current one ?
I would have thought that anything that makes stuff grow faster longer is better for agriculture on a whole?
Would really be interested in an informed opinion of someone thats close to this.

Supercell

Saruman wrote:

I should point out that global warming is not a man made thing... Sure we increased the rate a bit but as far as i know this has been going on well before the industrial revolution and we started throwing toxins in the air. In fact, and i could be wrong.. but i think the earth has been getting warmer since the ice age.

Also its something to do with the sun. It has cycles or something like that and we are in a warmer cycle now. Its what is believed to have cause the last ice age, the sun was in a colder cycle then. Im not sure exactly what causes it.. no one knows for sure but a combination of all these natural effects combined with our own muppetry has left us heading towards a future of climate change.

Tbh only ppl like GBush and Weatherwise and lunatics - http://www.weatherwars.info/ or http://www.akasha.de/%7Eaton/NUWinds.html (this one is totally bonkers imho) are denying global warming..I was a sceptic but the evidance is totally utterly irrefutable imho now, anyone that denys that its happening will never be convinced probably.

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Earthman, interested to hear your take on how people in the agricultural business will deal with change as it seems likely to develop.
Do you feel that you can adapt to warmer drier summers and wetter milder winters?
Have to admit i'm pretty clueless as to how the agriculture business deals with change and wheter this kind of climate regime is something that is favourable to our current one ?
I would have thought that anything that makes stuff grow faster longer is better for agriculture on a whole?
Would really be interested in an informed opinion of someone thats close to this.

Drier summers and wetter winters would be a nightmare for dairy farmers to be honest.
No grass during the summer and whats there burned and then the ground is too wet during the winter would mean higher costs.
It would be a challenge to say the least because at present the likes of Tesco for example being a large player/buyer in the market does everything it can to reduce the price paid to farmers for food-but the cost of production is rising rapidly anyway(oil,labour,electricity,vetinary medicines seeds and sprays etc etc)
Couple that with having to cope with with the higher costs associated with climate change and you would have a big drop in production due to people leaving the business.
Bigger producers would only have the same problems on a bigger scale.

So not good basically.

Heres the story I referred to as regards the probable effect of global warming on large hurricanes.

kindredspirit

Quote.........It is very scary stuff indeed, I seen in The National Geogaphic Magazine last year where a 1978 and a 2003 picture of the Arctic Ice Cap was, boy it was spookey to see the differences, nearly 40% gone!

There were 600 miles of what was ice now wide open water..........End of quote.



On the opposite side of the coin, no boat made the North West Passage this year because the ice never opened up !!!!!!!! So there appears to have been no warming in this part of the Arctic. Odd.

daveirl

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Supercell

daveirl wrote:

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Warmer waters are the main driving force for powerful hurricanes, not hard to make a logical jump and assume that warmer waters in the region that hurricanes develop is going to lead to stronger hurricanes when they do form.

Not saying more hurricanes..but the ones that do develop are going to be stronger than might have been the case when sea temps were lower.

Lennoxschips

Why exactly is it scary stuff. The planet and human beings have adapted to changing climates since the beginning of our existence so why would things change now.

This is like a smoker justifying his 2 pack a day habit by proclaiming, "ah sure, we all die in the end anyway."

Yes, climates do change by themselves, but that doesn't justify massively accelerating a slow and natural process.

The complete melting of artic ice will cause huge climate changes, this is why it is referred to as a "tipping point." It doesn't just mean that the ice will melt, other things will happen that will cause a positive feedback (i.e. vicious circle) to take place. For example, the albedo property of snow and ice is something in the region of 90%. The albedo of dark blue sea water is 10%. This means that Ice reflects 90% of the sun light hitting its surface back into the sky, while sea water actually soaks up 90% of the sun's energy. So, you can imagine that when all the ice melts there will be more sea water to soak up heat, adding more heat to the Earth's ocean's systems and warming up the planet considerably.

Supercell

Tbh, I like living in Ireland, and I like the idea of a med type climate here...

Ajnag

Hmmm,
We wouldnt put any faith in long term weather prediction, so why is it we're so quick to hop on to long term predictions reguarding climate change?

To say Irelands climate will be x in x many years is a bit frivoulous wouldnt you think. Also we tend to leave out other factors such as increase's in anomolous weather patterns such as lighting storms and torrenados etc in our forcasts.

In general terms, I dont see how anyone could view increased entropy in a system such as the weather could be a good thing, weather is chaotic enough as it is....

Needless to say, whatever happens will more then likely be very different to what we expected. C'est la vie.

Overlord

I'm no weather expert but what about "day after tomorrow" scenario?
The melting of the artic icecap and the fresh water resulting will stop the warm water from the gulf of mexico warming europe and freeze ireland?
Wouldn't be such a med climate then eh eh!?

CerebralCortex

Longfield wrote:

Tbh, I like living in Ireland, and I like the idea of a med type climate here...

Chances are just as high that an increase in fresh melt water from the icecaps will make Ireland a very cold place indeed. Hotter summers due to global warming will increase melt water upsetting the NAD and make your retirement rather uncomfortable.

Supercell

CerebralCortex wrote:

Chances are just as high that an increase in fresh melt water from the icecaps will make Ireland a very cold place indeed. Hotter summers due to global warming will increase melt water upsetting the NAD and make your retirement rather uncomfortable.

Actually unless the Gulf stream stops in the next 10-15 years, at the current rate of global warming, it will only tempororily slow the rate of increase if/when it stops after that..there will be no cool down.

Saruman

Longfield wrote:

Tbh only ppl like GBush and Weatherwise and lunatics - http://www.weatherwars.info/ or http://www.akasha.de/%7Eaton/NUWinds.html (this one is totally bonkers imho) are denying global warming..I was a sceptic but the evidance is totally utterly irrefutable imho now, anyone that denys that its happening will never be convinced probably.

I dont get it... I was certainly not denying global warming and thats pretty obvious from my post. I simply said that its not "only" down to humans polluting the planet. We did contribute to it and increased it a lot but it was warming long before we started fecking it up.

Supercell

Saruman wrote:

I dont get it... I was certainly not denying global warming and thats pretty obvious from my post. I simply said that its not "only" down to humans polluting the planet. We did contribute to it and increased it a lot but it was warming long before we started fecking it up.

Actually we were in a cooling trend before human interaction.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/04/sci_nat_enl_1092666337/img/1.jpg

CerebralCortex

Longfield wrote:

Actually unless the Gulf stream stops in the next 10-15 years, at the current rate of global warming, it will only tempororily slow the rate of increase if/when it stops after that..there will be no cool down.

If when it stops it will there will be no Atlantic weather (I think) and that I thought is what provides us with our mild weather systems.

ninebeanrows

Sorry i just can't stand this dribble no more ( im not saying that you are all dribblers as i havent read every post)

I would like to express my opinion,

Global Climate Change IS occurring..

The Global Climate changes ALL THE TIME..

In slower phases and in warmer phases..

Human infulence on the climate is extremely small so small it should not
even be considered IMO...

We are no doubt going through changes but nothing earth shattering is occuring nothing other than natural shift the climate which as occurres
throughout the planets history.

It is fact that the reason discussion on this topic has risen so high over the
past years is due to the rapid development of telecommunaction systems
across the globe..

We are seeing nothing different to the cooling we occurred in the 80's..

Where we are headed is unknown..

kindredspirit

The trouble is that human knowledge is not complete although we like to think we know everything!

A similar scenario is oil fields. At school we were taught that they were formed by the masses of rotting vegetation and squashed dinosaurs aeons ago. I remember disputing this in primary school and saying that it couldn't be so as oil was lighter than water and rainwater percolating through the ground would have forced the oil to the surface. Unfortunately when asked if I had an alternative theory, smarty pants, I hadn't.

Apparently, oil reservoirs are re-filling very, very slowly and it is now surmized that oil is made in the bowels of the earth by chemical reactions and that the oil-fields are situated on ancient fault lines between tectonic plates on the earth's crust.

Natural gas fields are similarily, the product of chemical reactions deep, deep down in the earth and not formed from dinosaur methane!

daveirl

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