Totesport Ayr Gold Cup (Saturday 17th)

threebeards

Fresh from his success in Doncaster last Wednesday, my old pal Out After Dark is off again on Saturday in the Ayr Gold Cup. As of a few minutes ago, the best price available was 9/1 fav but it's expected that he'll shorten even further after a few withdrawals today and tomorrow. The stable says he's in top form and they expect a big race (and hopefully a big payday) on Saturday.

masterK

The money is flying in for him, he's the favourite now. He must have a brilliant chance. Only has a 5lb penalty for his latest success. He seems to go on any ground. One note of caution for anybody betting ante-post, the draw has yet to be decided. Be aware that a low draw at Ayr will make it almost impossible to win from. If he's drawn middle or high then he is a definite for the shortlist.

threebeards

masterK wrote:

the draw has yet to be decided. Be aware that a low draw at Ayr will make it almost impossible to win from. If he's drawn middle or high then he is a definite for the shortlist.

Very true - here's hoping!!!

The jock

It has to be partners in jazz for me at 16/1,im on at 66/1 at the start of the year as the owners of this horse had this race in mind for a long time.If it gets a clear run and good draw it should be in the first 3 home.Out after dark is a good horse but he has run alot of hard race this year and it might be taking its toll.

masterK

Threebeards, you'll be pleased to see that Out After Dark has been drawn in stall 25 of 28 which should be ideal.

threebeards

masterK wrote:

Threebeards, you'll be pleased to see that Out After Dark has been drawn in stall 25 of 28 which should be ideal.

Most definately. Add to that the fact that Pieter Brueghel is drawn in stall 26 - this horse has effectively acted as a pacemaker of sorts in a few races that Out After Dark has won (most recently being last week in Doncaster) so I feel the speed will be on the side of the track I would want it to be. Paddy Power has shortened him to 7/1 clear favourite now. I'm headin down to put another lump on him before he goes any shorter.

pro_gnostic_8

masterK wrote:

He seems to go on any ground.

Respectfully, MasterK, I remain unconvinced ................. I have the impression that he needs a little juice underfoot. The current going is on the fast side of good -- I would like to see a little rain before the race.

masterK

pro_gnostic_8 wrote:

Respectfully, MasterK, I remain unconvinced ................. I have the impression that he needs a little juice underfoot. The current going is on the fast side of good -- I would like to see a little rain before the race.

If anything I would say it is the other way around. Look at his last 3 runs on Good to Firm ground.

7/9/2005 - Doncaster - 1st of 21
21/6/2005 - Beverley - 1st of 8
7/5/2005 - Beverley - 1st of 17

Incidentally the official going at Ayr has been changed to Good, Good to Soft in places.

pro_gnostic_8

Though, on June 24th subsequent to his most recent Beverly race OUT AFTER DARK's win at Newvcastle was on Good going.

I dunno, it's only yesterday that Clive Cox was saying that he was concerned over the likelihood of fast ground at Ayr. "I wouldn't mind a drop of rain", he went on to say.

Do you have any concerns over his step up to six furlongs? To me it seemed that the extended five furlongs in the Portland was his absolute optimum while his previous wins were over the bare five at Bev and Newc.

Anyway, seeing that the official going is now listed as Good, the issue is now of little consequence.

masterK

If Clive Cox said he'd wouldn't mind a drop of rain then he must prefer a little bit of ease. Cox is usually comes across as pretty straight up and his comments can be taken at face value. Either way I think the current going should be fine for him.

The step up to six with a penalty is something of a concern, I'd be interested to hear what Threebeards has to say on this, since he has been getting the inside info.

For anybody considering betting on this race watching the Ayr Silver cup is a must today to get an idea as to how the race will pan out.

threebeards

pro_gnostic_8 wrote:

Do you have any concerns over his step up to six furlongs? To me it seemed that the extended five furlongs in the Portland was his absolute optimum while his previous wins were over the bare five at Bev and Newc.

You make a fair point but what I can say to you is that the people involved in horse feel that everything that can go right has gone right so far and they're very excited and expectant about tomorrow.

masterK wrote:

If anything I would say it is the other way around. Look at his last 3 runs on Good to Firm ground.

7/9/2005 - Doncaster - 1st of 21
21/6/2005 - Beverley - 1st of 8
7/5/2005 - Beverley - 1st of 17

Incidentally the official going at Ayr has been changed to Good, Good to Soft in places.

.

Good to firm is probably the optimum so I wouldn't like to see much more rain.

I have a ball of money on him for tomorrow based mainly on his form, the draw, the going (hopefully it doesn't get any softer) and Clive Cox's feelings on his chances. In fairness to Cox, he has told the syndicate on previous occasions when he felt the chances were'nt so good. The only variable for me is the inexperience of Adam Kirby but he's done the biz before and the horse responds well to him. The horse owes me nothing at this stage and I'd be delighted if he came in and ye all had a few quid on him as well but as we all know, nothing is straightforward

threebeards

There seems to be a big gamble on Bygone Days (20's into 9's on Paddy Power). Anyone know anything about him?

fade2black

Was on my one to watch list at one point this season. Definitely would have a chance in a competitive race like this. Might be worth having a look at how Steel Blue runs today as he has form that ties in with Bygone Days.

pro_gnostic_8

threebeards wrote:

There seems to be a big gamble on Bygone Days (20's into 9's on Paddy Power). Anyone know anything about him?

There have been opinions expressed on a couple of other forums that BYGONE DAYS will be Tom Segal's (Pricewise) selection for the race and as a result that the odds will come in. Maybe it's just the lemmings that latch on to any old rumour that are backing him.

pro_gnostic_8

Some Ayr "experts" have always been of the view that a high draw only suits when the going is fast on the straight course. And that a low draw is preferable on softer going.

Well , Machinist has just won the Silver Cup ............... drawn 1 !

pro_gnostic_8

Aha ......... Bygone Days IS the Racing Post's nap of the meeting (Spotlight).
Pricewise selection won't be published for a few hours yet.

masterK

I've have a little ratings system that I wrote to help analyze form. Here are my ratings for the Gold Cup. They've been pretty decent recently with most winners usually coming from the top 5 or 6 rated.

BYGONE DAYS 24.5
PIETER BRUEGHEL 22.1
CONTINENT 21.9
OUT AFTER DARK 21.3
FONTHILL ROAD 21.1
KHABFAIR 19.8
MAJESTIC TIMES 19.6
FANTASY BELIEVER 18.8
RIVER FALCON 16.4
TALBOT AVENUE 16.3
PARTNERS IN JAZZ 15.9
PRESTO SHINKO 15.9
CHOOKIE HEITON 15.4
CONNECT 15
SIERRA VISTA 15
PEACE OFFERING 13
MERLIN`S DANCER 11.9
TRAYTONIC 11.3
FUNFAIR WANE 11.2
COLEORTON DANCER 11
INTOXICATING 10.1
YOMALO 9.9
FICTIONAL 9.5
DANCE NIGHT 9.3
PRIMUS INTER PARES 9
PHILHARMONIC 7.5
CAPRICHO 7.3
JUST JAMES 2.5

Based on that and my own analysis I am another one who is going for Bygone Days, he looks the improver in the field and based on his run at the Curragh looks really well handicapped. I'll take Pieter Breugal to follow him home and Out After Dark to be 3rd. I'm assuming high numbers will have the advantage as even though the draw looks quite even the better horses all seem to be drawn high.

masterK

Here are the Pricewise selections if anybody is interested.

3.40 ayr fonthill rd 1pt win 12/1 viktor 10/1 gen
3.40 ayr bygone days 1pt win 10/1 oral 9/1 gen

3.20 newbury rohanni 1pt win 8/1 gen

pro_gnostic_8

Most interesting ratings, mK. It is hard to disagree with the merits of any of the top 6 in the list on recent form. But there's the thing ............ the ratings do seem to be weighted towards those horses with good recent form. Funfair Wane, for instance, does he really deserve to be near the bottom of the listings?? Especially if it rains at Ayr again overnight.

Not intended in any way as a criticism of the ratings, I hope you understand. Just wondering.

Interesting also that Bygone Days comes out on top. Hmmm, napped by RP, tipped by Pricewise and now top-rated by you -- I can see him going off favourite tomorrow.

scojones

I already posted this in the Saturday naps thread, but I will post it here also as it is relevant to the gold cup.

Don't laugh! But my NAP of the day is Sierra Vista for the gold cup at Ayr. I think all of you lads have it wrong, and that this horse is being overlooked by everyone. The horse has really impressed me since the end of May this year, I kept a close eye on it last weekend when it finished second to Indian Maiden. Every week I have seen this horse looking better and better, and I'm going to go each way on it today, it's an outsider but I don't think this race is as clear cut as everyone thinks. If it doesn't win today, it will definately impress. Currently trading at 33/1.

Best of luck lads.

Crumbs

I went for Majestic Times and Fictional earlier in the week. The ground isn't quite right for Fictional now (prefers quicker) and he has an awkward draw so I've laid off half my stake on him but Majestic Times has a nice draw and is a consistent sort to whom I'd give good place claims.

Board@Work

I also put an e/w on Sierra after getting tip from friend. Got at 33-1 on paddy power.

threebeards

Very disappointed. Seemed to get boxed in and there was no way out. I'm goin to the pub anyway!!

rabbitinlights

Who placed?

fade2black

fade2black wrote:

Was on my one to watch list at one point this season. Definitely would have a chance in a competitive race like this. Might be worth having a look at how Steel Blue runs today as he has form that ties in with Bygone Days.

fade2black wrote:

His biggest threats will come from the same yard...most notably golden dixie and machinist. At a big price and a nice draw Steel Blue would have chances in this too and would be worth a little each way.

Big fan of this horse...wins today at 8-1. Not a bad saturday really.