PetroEuro?

Hobbes

http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.html

Its a long read but worth it. Basically Iran is planning to switch to Euros instead of Dollars in selling Oil. Last country to do that was Iraq and magically switched back after it was "liberated".

MrPudding

Really interesting article. I little bit scary though, it makes it seem as if they are rubbinh their hands waiting for another huge terrorist attack just so they can swing into action to get their hands on more oil. If that is true the Bush/Cheney axis of evil is even worse that I previously thought.

MrP

zuma

Hobbes wrote:

http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.html

Its a long read but worth it. Basically Iran is planning to switch to Euros instead of Dollars in selling Oil. Last country to do that was Iraq and magically switched back after it was "liberated".

Funny about that change back to Dollars!

Iran isnt the only one thinking of trading in Euro.

If all the Middle East switches to the Euro for oil trading then Billions of Dollars will flood back into the US causing the US currency to loose a LOT of its value.

That scares the US far more than the threat of a terrorist attack!

Ajnag

Kinda messed up dont ya think, One of the most agressive us admins in recent history and they literally over did it, too much, too quick and ludicrious expectations on the results they were expecting.

Game, Set, Match....Iran.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/07/21/iran/

jubbly

speaking of fuel... visit www.irishfuelprices.com/ for the different fuel prices across ireland. If you know of a local station enter in what they are charging.

flogen

There was talk some time back of the standard switching from dollar to euro, because the dollar was so unpredictable and unstable (because of sept 11th and the following wars, threats etc.)
tbh, I don't think the US need an excuse to get Iran, but this won't hurt them.

mike65

The article is all over the place (on lefty websites) right now. I'd say it was mainly excitable speculation, though the notion of commodities being priced in euros has been suggested since the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Heres the author himself on peakoil forums.

The eurofication of carbon depoists and others would clearly freak the Yanks but the rest of us have copped and as they say values can go down as well as up.

The euro is curently strong relative to the dollar but there's nothing in stone.

If there were war with Iran for the sake of the dollar the USA would be on its own and the reaction to such action from almost everyone with oil is that they'd switch to euros. Then what the US so fears (if one belives the hype) would come about and at the same time the US 'twin towers' of deficit are troubling enough already.

Mike.

Moriarty

It's intresting that there's talk of commodities being traded in euros, while at the same time theres quiet mutterings in various places about the 'inevitable' collapse of the euro in 10-20 years.

zuma

Moriarty wrote:

It's intresting that there's talk of commodities being traded in euros, while at the same time theres quiet mutterings in various places about the 'inevitable' collapse of the euro in 10-20 years.

If you believe the UK sceptics then the Euro will collapse tomorrow...or the day after...or the day after...or the day after......etc.

Moriarty

Not just uk euro-sceptics. If I remember correctly, the german finance minister was in a hush-hush meeting with high-up people from the ECB and a couple of other countries a month or so ago and they seemingly came to the conclusion that the collapse of the euro was inevitable. Seemingly it's not just crackpots that think this, so it leads me to want to find out what problems exactly face the euro.

Calina

Moriarty wrote:

Not just uk euro-sceptics. If I remember correctly, the german finance minister was in a hush-hush meeting with high-up people from the ECB and a couple of other countries a month or so ago and they seemingly came to the conclusion that the collapse of the euro was inevitable. Seemingly it's not just crackpots that think this, so it leads me to want to find out what problems exactly face the euro.

Can you provide a source please? I'm reluctant to take your word for it when the word "seemingly" is smattered all over the post.

Moriarty

Quote from Time Magazine

Posted Monday, Jun. 20, 2005
Judging by the way the Euro has tumbled on currency markets in the past few weeks, you might think that voters in France and the Netherlands had rejected the six-year-old European currency rather than the planned new European Union constitution. Propelling the decline was a report--quickly denied--in the German newsmagazine Stern that at a meeting in late May, Finance Minister Hans Eichel and Axel Weber, head of the German central bank, had discussed the prospect of dissolving Europe's monetary union. Weber dismissed the report as "absurd," and most market watchers and economists agreed. "The talk will continue for a week or two, then go away--the euro's here to stay," says William Davies, head of European equities for the London-based fund manager Threadneedle Investments.

For a start. There were a flurry of similar articles around the same time in the papers and other current affairs magazines.

dermo88

Any talk of the collapse of the Euro is at this point in time, absolute rubbish. However, there is a way that individual states through fiscal laziness, could end up forced off it.

I am of course talking of the resurrection of individual national central banks, particularly if state governments find the going too tough, and the tight Euro regime guidelines too tight in the event of a deep recession.

So for example, a parallel circulation of a local currency, in Irelands case, Punt Nua or Coroin (Irish for Dollar) happens, with currency notes issued at nominally at par for Euro in small denominations takes place. Over time, this "drives" out the European Central Bank notes from circulation, and the National Currency takes over. Magically, one day, the Government announce that this is the ONLY legal tender, and the Euro goes out of circulation, or trades at a higher and higher premium.

And - I can already name the countries most likely to try and pull this stunt off:

1. Greece
2. Portugal
3. Italy

All three have an excessive love of the printing press, have an inflation culture built in to their psyche. They simply cannot get used to the fact that they now have a currency that loses 2% of its value per annum instead of 5% or more.

Ireland had an extremely stable currency for most of its independence, except for the period between 1979 and 1992. After devaluing in early 1993 by 10%, the Punt rivaled the DM for stability. Going into the Euro in 1999, made our boom even stronger, with artificially low interest rates for local economic conditions, a falling currency value completely going against our economic conditions. Instead of trading at 85 pence sterling, and falling to a low of 78pence, it should have risen towards the 95 pence mark, and risen against the (then) strong Dollar. But the Euro changed that, making the punt artificially low, and throwing more fuel on a very hot Irish economy.

Ireland is not recession proof. We seem to be at the moment. BUT If we had never entered the Euro, the boom would not have been as strong, interest rates would consistently be twice the level of the Euro zone, and it would still be a relatively cheap country to live in. Except for the cost of servicing mortgages, and a slightly higher unemployment rate (7% would be a fair estimate)

The US Dollar can never be trusted under the Republicans. Look at Reagan, Bush I, and now BUsh II. In all three cases, they claimed fiscal rectitude, yet practised fiscal profligracy that rivals Haughey for economic mismanagement. In all three cases, the Dollar nosedived. In all three cases, boom and bust. Its only because of Alan Greenspan being a bloody smart Central Banker that the pain has not happened. Hes due to retire next year, and thats when the sh1t hits the fan, since it will be hard to get someone near as good.

Also, most of us remember when rates used to increase by 1 or 1.5% in a day. These 0.25% increases now have much more impact as we can see in the UK.

rsynnott

dermo88 wrote:

The US Dollar can never be trusted under the Republicans. Look at Reagan, Bush I, and now BUsh II. In all three cases, they claimed fiscal rectitude, yet practised fiscal profligracy that rivals Haughey for economic mismanagement. .

No, no, you misunderstand. Spending money on killing people is a perfectly correct and American thing to do. Spending money on healthcare, education, social welfare, research or industry regulation means you're a Communist. Simple, really.

DublinWriter

flogen wrote:

There was talk some time back of the standard switching from dollar to euro, because the dollar was so unpredictable and unstable (because of sept 11th and the following wars, threats etc.)

Nothing to do with 9/11, but Bush's massive mismanagement of the US economy and the spiraling US trade deficit that's making many analysts predict doom for the USD in the next three years.

zuma

rsynnott wrote:

No, no, you misunderstand. Spending money on killing people is a perfectly correct and American thing to do. Spending money on healthcare, education, social welfare, research or industry regulation means you're a Communist. Simple, really.

Thats fairly accurate, in my view at least!!!

Incredible as it may sound...some Americans view their social system as a source of decay in their society!!!

Im not sure about the US version of the Dole...but isnt it based on a percentage of your previous wage and runs out after a couple of months???