To Race or Not to Race

JuliusFranco

i'm none the wiser after this bastid hand!

playing in a live game last night. i''ve an ok stack of 9300 with blinds just after increasing to 200/400 (level 5). still 6 tables left. i'm about 3rd in chips on the table with the SB and BBs on my button having about 15k. villain has about the same as me. everyone else has between 2k to 8k. my table image is pretty good i think (hair nicely done, dashing black t shirt, only have showed down winning hands, playing tight but aggressive. in the hand in question someone remarked that i only raise when i play)

anyho, i'm dealt AKo in mid position. after one limper i raise it to 1200. all fold to the BB (villain) who pumps it to 3k. limper folds.
what do you do??


well my thoughts were:
my read on the player tells me he's got a pretty good pair but i don't think it's AA or KK or something like AQ etc. in fact, i put him on JJ. there's 4800 in the pot, i've to put in another 1800 to continue.

if i call i'd have 6300 left. pot would be 6600 (ok, at the time i was thinking if i called, the pot would be equal to both our stacks).
i could raise (and it would be all in)
i could fold, avoiding a race and still have 8100

bearing in mind that stage of the tournament what would you do???

thanks
Alan

Culchie

If you were confident with your read that it was JJ or less, I would have pushed all-in here, and let him make a decision for all his chips.

Any MTT win is normally to involve a crucial 'AK' moment, whether you have it or have a high pair against it, and you need to come out the right side of this.

The only thing is, from what you said, I wouldn't be so sure he's not holding a monster here, if your perception of your own image is correct.
Here's a healthy stack really putting it up to a 'rock' after you raising behind an early position limper. (I don't know is the limper an issue here or not).

Could be a Harrington 'Squeeze Play' as well

Calling is not an option for me, I either seeing zero cards or 5 cards.


So, on balance here, I think I'm folding, after taking quite a while to think about it, and move on... an upcoming steal of some blinds will help even things out.

NickyOD

You can't smooth call. You want to see 5 cards with AK so its fold or push. More often than not I would probably chose not to race in that spot unless I felt there was also a good chance my oponent would fold if I moved all in. If I had less chips or the blind structure was brutal I would race.

califano

theres a flip side to that coin. sometimes you take yourself out of that race and fold then you dont see a playable hand for the rest of the game and get blinded away and your thinking back to the AK beating yourself up saying "i should of gone all in with that AK". you end up qoing all in with QJ or something equally crap.
i would be more inclined here to call if he went all in. but this business of him just re-raising your initial raise reeks of a real good pair. if he went all in i would be thinking hes trying to shoo me away with AQ AJ thats why i would be inclined to call. because he just re-raised i might fold here.

willis

fold. as rounders said it reeks of a real good pair,if this player is any good then you can be certain he has a big hand as: (a) its not a big rerasie and looks likes he wants a caller and (b) hes outa position and so wouldnt really wana see a flop here with jj or below as hes first to act. I reckon QQ minimum here, again depends on your read of him

JuliusFranco

thanks for the advice people

regarding my read, let's assume he had QQ then. the decision i was faced with was whether to race or not to race?

Culchie

JuliusFranco wrote:

thanks for the advice people

regarding my read, let's assume he had QQ then. the decision i was faced with was whether to race or not to race?

This is the thing I just don't get.

How can anyone be so precise and put someone on an exact hand, I hear it all the time, I put you on XX or YY. It's a dangerous game, and you cannot possible be right more than 10/20 % of the time preflop (Surely?).

To answer your question, if I absolute knew he had QQ, having peeked at his cards , with the stack sizes etc.... I would fold here, you've still 8100 chips. Nick some blinds and you're up to 8700 .... no big deal.

NickyOD

Culchie wrote:

This is the thing I just don't get.

How can anyone be so precise and put someone on an exact hand, I hear it all the time, I put you on XX or YY. It's a dangerous game, and you cannot possible be right more than 10/20 % of the time preflop (Surely?).

To answer your question, if I absolute knew he had QQ, having peeked at his cards , with the stack sizes etc.... I would fold here, you've still 8100 chips. Nick some blinds and you're up to 8700 .... no big deal.

With the size of the reraise, who he reraises, the position he raises from and the level of confidence he shows its often very possible to put a player on a very specific hand if you have some knowledge of his hand history.

Culchie

A range of hands Nicky sure, but an exact holding... in a live game, maybe you can, but I certainly can't.

BTW , you also have to factor in the early position limper. Early position limp suggests this hand could be reasonably strong as well, probably holding an A or K (or both) ... also reducing your outs in a race.

padraig_f

NickyOD wrote:

You can't smooth call. You want to see 5 cards with AK so its fold or push.

I don't see how folding can be better than calling when you're getting over 2.5/1 from the pot and you're about 2/1 to hit an A/K on the flop.

If I thought I had any fold equity, I'd go all-in, the problem here is if you go all-in, he'll be getting over 2/1 from the pot so I don't think he's ever going to fold. If you do go all-in and he calls, you're getting a very slight overlay against a PP. I'm not too keen on calling for all my chips (if he never folds you're effectively calling) with only a slight overlay when you often have a significant fold equity elsewhere.

I think I'd call in this spot and fold the flop if I miss. You're also likely to win some more chips off him if you do hit the flop, as he'll probably at least make some attempt to represent the A/K.

NickyOD

JuliusFranco wrote:

thanks for the advice people

regarding my read, let's assume he had QQ then. the decision i was faced with was whether to race or not to race?

If you are certain you are racing then there has to be some underlying strategic reason for you to race. even with an overlay on the pot odds, unless the overlay is considerable. Personally I don't think it is ever "wrong" to race with AK except if its a race against a player who can hurt or bust you when you have a very comfortable stack. (i.e if I was top 5 in chips with 50 players I am not going to get it all in against the chip leader with AK preflop)

Also If the table has a lot of very good players and you are finding it tough to find microedges against them then you should race but if you feel you have a good chance of stealing blinds or outplaying your oponents then you should avoid races.

In the hand you mentioned I think a lot depends on how the blidns structure is. If its about to go up to 300/600 with a 20 minute clock then I am burning the felt getting my chips in here, otherwise I would wait until you feel your stack doesn't have much polay left in it.

JuliusFranco

well i put him on JJ actually and he had QQ. i just felt confident that he didn't have kings or aces. in hind sight he might have just flat called with JJ but there was something that told me he wasn't too exited about getting called..i could have been wrong of course, i'm no mind reader. What i was miffed about is that i knew I was against a pair held by a guy who i knew was not going to fold. but i still went all in..

i'm just wondering was it worth it...

NickyOD

padraig_f wrote:

I don't see how folding can be better than calling when you're getting over 2.5/1 from the pot and you're about 2/1 to hit an A/K on the flop.

If I thought I had any fold equity, I'd go all-in, the problem here is if you go all-in, he'll be getting over 2/1 from the pot so I don't think he's ever going to fold. If you do go all-in and he calls, you're getting a very slight overlay against a PP. I'm not too keen on calling for all my chips (if he never folds you're effectively calling) with only a slight overlay when you often have a significant fold equity elsewhere.

I think I'd call in this spot and fold the flop if I miss. You're also likely to win some more chips off him if you do hit the flop, as he'll probably at least make some attempt to represent the A/K.

If you ever call off 30% of your stack preflop with the intention of folding if you miss it, then its very poor strategy. With 32.4% chance of floppping Ace or King (not including the times your opoennt flops a set) and 48% chance of hitting A or K by the river I would much prefer to get it all in preflop to see 5 cards, and force the decision back on my oponent. Smooth calling here is very weak IMO.

NickyOD

JuliusFranco wrote:

i'm just wondering was it worth it...

It's a grey area. Like rounders said you might not have found a better oportunity. You need to win races to win tournaments. Nothing wrong with how you played it IMO.

Culchie

NickyOD wrote:

If you ever call off 30% of your stack preflop with the intention of folding if you miss it, then its very poor strategy. With 32.4% chance of floppping Ace or King (not including the times your opoennt flops a set) and 48% chance of hitting A or K by the river I would much prefer to get it all in preflop to see 5 cards, and force the decision back on my oponent. Smooth calling here is very weak IMO.

I'd agree with this as well.

I think I'd fold, but if not, throw them all-in, see 5 cards, and make Villian decide for all his chips if QQ or JJ or whatever is worth putting all his chips at risk for (he probably will with 30% in already). A call is not something I would consider here at all.

JuliusFranco

very much appreciate the input lads - thanks

i really have alot of work to do on my tournament game. while my actions last night (or indeed most tournaments) may have been ok at best, i'm thinking it's only because i picked the ok course instead of deciding upon the right course.
had i gone on to do well in that tournament it would certainly have been a case of a blind squirrel finding nuts!

padraig_f

NickyOD wrote:

If you ever call off 30% of your stack preflop with the intention of folding if you miss it, then its very poor strategy.

The decision to call is for 1800/8100, which is less than 25% of your stack. If you consider an all-in, in my opinion, you're getting less of an overlay there and risking more of your stack.

NickyOD wrote:

With 32.4% chance of floppping Ace or King (not including the times your opoennt flops a set) and 48% chance of hitting A or K by the river

Considering it as 32% vs. 48% doesn't clarify the issue, as in the former case you're putting in $1800 and in the latter you're putting in $8100.

NickyOD wrote:

I would much prefer to get it all in preflop to see 5 cards, and force the decision back on my oponent. Smooth calling here is very weak IMO.

My contention is that the opponent is rarely if ever folding, so you're not forcing any decision back on him.

NickyOD

padraig_f wrote:

The decision to call is for 1800/8100, which is less than 25% of your stack. If you consider an all-in, in my opinion, you're getting less of an overlay there and risking more of your stack.

Considering it as 32% vs. 48% doesn't clarify the issue, as in the former case you're putting in $1800 and in the latter you're putting in $8100.


My contention is that the opponent is rarely if ever folding, so you're not forcing any decision back on him.

How much more would you expect to make from the hand if you hit the flop?

padraig_f

NickyOD wrote:

How much more would you expect to make from the hand if you hit the flop?

That's hard to say, it depends a bit on the opponent, with $6000 in the pot I'd say you could pretty reasonably expect to get $2000 out of him. It would take a pretty great player to check-fold his hand on a K-high flop (and based on the size of his pre-flop reraise I don't think he is that player).

NickyOD

padraig_f wrote:

That's hard to say, it depends a bit on the opponent, with $6000 in the pot I'd say you could pretty reasonably expect to get $2000 out of him. It would take a pretty great player to check-fold his hand on a K-high flop (and based on the size of his pre-flop reraise I don't think he is that player).

Hmmm I dunno. I would expect most players to check-fold JJ/QQ on a flop with an ace on it and probably less than half to bet into a flop with a king on it after their preflop reraise gets called. But I would also expect players to be able to fold JJ preflop to an all-in re-re-raise and some to fold QQ, which is why I'd prefer to get to go all in. Against players who don't fold, AK is not as good a hand as it's made out to be. I probably expect too much but If I call and lose I'm looking at a 10BB stack when the blinds go up. I would smooth call with JJ/QQ to avoid a race but I'd pretty much never smooth call a reraise with AK unless it was a very small amount. I'd always push or fold. Hate putting 30% of my chips in the middle when I'll end up folding on the flop more than twice as often as I'll hit it and sometimes you'll hit it and still lose.

Ste05

I agree with Nicky here completely, a call here is terrible IMO, I think you need to decide if this is the hand you want to race with or not, paying regard to how near the bubble is, the average stack size in the tournament compared to you, how good you persieve the players at the table to be, and what, if any edge you think you have over them. As has already been said IMO you need to win an AK race to win or cash big in a tournament. And the decision is whether this is the time to take this gamble or not.

I also agree with Nicky that if you smooth call and hit, you're very unlikely to get paid, any decent player should be able to get away from QQ or JJ.

If you call, miss and fold, it will make you substantially weaker and mean that any moves you make in the future will effectively be for all your chips (less the amount you called with!), and in that situation you're unlikely to have a better spot than a 50:50 race. Possibly hope for a 60:40, but I doubt you'll get much better than this unless you're blinded down to a very short stack.

IMHO this is a judgement call based on how you feel at the time, I personally take these 50:50's because if you win them you have a healthy stack and it gives you every opportunity to win the whole thing. Although that's just my style of play, I like to play to win the tournament and not just scrape into the money, it is a risky and looser style than many and one that bubbles more than I like but hey.

Just my 0.2c

padraig_f

Ste05 wrote:

I agree with Nicky here completely, a call here is terrible IMO, I think you need to decide if this is the hand you want to race with or not, paying regard to how near the bubble is, the average stack size in the tournament compared to you, how good you persieve the players at the table to be, and what, if any edge you think you have over them. As has already been said IMO you need to win an AK race to win or cash big in a tournament. And the decision is whether this is the time to take this gamble or not.

I'm not talking about willingness to gamble versus playing it cautiously, the point I'm making is that calling is simply the most profitable play.

Ste05 wrote:

I also agree with Nicky that if you smooth call and hit, you're very unlikely to get paid, any decent player should be able to get away from QQ or JJ.

I disagree with this, maybe you don't get all his chips, but you do win something when you hit. You think he reraises from the BB like this and check-folds every flop where an A or K comes?

As for how much you make on the flop, it's a debatable point but you definitely make something on average. So you have the combination of
a) getting correct odds to call
b) having extra implied odds (whatever they may be)

You're telling me that's a bad call?

To put it into numbers here's how I see the EV of each decision:

EV fold: $8100
EV all-in: 19200 * .45 = $8640
EV call: (6300 + (6600/3)) = $8500 + x/3
(where x is whatever else you win off him when you hit the A/K)

Note that x doesn't have to be very big for calling to be the most profitable play. Tell me if I'm making any incorrect assumptions here.

NickyOD

Committing such a large percentage of your stack preflop with the intention of folding postflop when you miss is a bad strategy period.

Ste05

padraig_f wrote:

(where x is whatever else you win off him when you hit the A/K)

Note that x doesn't have to be very big for calling to be the most profitable play. Tell me if I'm making any incorrect assumptions here.

Well firstly, you seem to be assuming you're going to hit an A or K. If you fold what happens for the rest of the tournament, call in another similar spot??

Secondly when you talk about implied odds, a call here has no implied odds IMHO, if you hit your A or K I think you'll get nothing more than what's in the pot already, possibly add in a continuation bet, but even that is highly unlikely from a solid player.

Thirdly and most importantly you seem to be approaching this problem as though the basics of cash game play apply to tournament play. The fact is they are completely different games and I think your whole reasoning to be wrong.

Obviously we're playing very different games, If this passive type of game works for you, continue, but I don't think this would be recommended for the majority of players.

Hitman Actual

Ste05 wrote:

Thirdly and most importantly you seem to be approaching this problem as though the basics of cash game play apply to tournament play. The fact is they are completely different games and I think your whole reasoning to be wrong.

I'm not so sure about this. When you're far from the money, as is the case here, a lot of tournament decisions can be looked at from a cash game point of view. Particularly with deep stacks relative to the blinds (so that rules out most Dublin games ). Things like the Gap concept are more important in tournaments, obviously, but generally a poker decision is still a poker decision.

I agree that flat calling here is a poor option, though: all-in or fold, as is the general consensus, and I dont think there's a lot of difference between those two choices.

Ste05

Agree with you there Lenny, although IMHO really only in the early levels do I think cash game rules would generally apply. When you're dealing with a large % of your overall stack size I don't think they really apply.

padraig_f

Ste05 wrote:

Well firstly, you seem to be assuming you're going to hit an A or K.

I accounted for that, that's why it's x/3 - you hit an A/K on the flop 1 in 3 times.

Ste05 wrote:

Obviously we're playing very different games, If this passive type of game works for you, continue, but I don't think this would be recommended for the majority of players.

I'm aware of the benefit of aggressive play, but it generally requires your opponent to fold a certain amount of the time. In this case I can't see anyone who folds to a reraise. A good player will not reraise there and fold to a reraise when he's getting over 2/1 odds from the pot, and it's generally good players who fold more often than weak players. When you have no fold equity, all the benefit from an aggressive play is lost.

What some of you may be missing is that in this situation your opponent has made a mistake, he's not reraised enough and he's giving you 2.66/1 pot odds when you're 2/1 to hit your hand. The way to take advantage of this mistake is to call. If you reraise and he calls, it's equivalent to him reraising more and you calling, so you're cancelling out his mistake.

To put the numbers another way, when you get all-in, you expect to win on average $540 for an investment of $8100. Your edge here is 540/8100 = 6.6%.

When you call, you win on average $400 for an investment of $1800, which is a (400/1800) 22% edge. And that's not even including the implied odds.

6.6% edge versus 22% edge (plus implied odds). But most people seem to be under the impression that it's better to take the former bet for more of your chips. As far as I see, the only debatable point is if he ever folds. I don't think he does and in fact the original poster described him as 'a guy who i knew was not going to fold'.

padraig_f

NickyOD wrote:

Committing such a large percentage of your stack preflop with the intention of folding postflop when you miss is a bad strategy period.

Here's a question.

Blinds are 200/400. You have 8100 in chips. A short-stack with 1800 goes all-in, on average you expect to profit $400 from this call. You're last to act, do you call or fold?

What's the difference between this question and calling the guy's raise?

Ste05

I think basically that if you know he has a pocket pair, and you have AK, if you're going to play the hand, you want a 50:50 shot (i.e. 5 cards) and not a 30:70 shot (i.e. call and only see the flop).

I won't go on any further with this, and I think we'll just agree to disagree.

And in the next question, without going into all the potential ways this will alter your decision, I'll just mention the major difference that I would have thought to be obvious, that being in this new scenario, you can't get knocked out of the tournament on this hand!

NickyOD

padraig_f wrote:

Here's a question.

Blinds are 200/400. You have 8100 in chips. A short-stack with 1800 goes all-in, on average you expect to profit $400 from this call. You're last to act, do you call or fold?

What's the difference between this question and calling the guy's raise?

You get to see 5 cards. In the situation above if you smooth call you will only see 3 cards and will be behind more than twice as often as you are ahead.

Hitman Actual

I'm curious about the maths that's been put forward so far in this, 'cos I get different numbers for the all-in or call situation.

The OP puts villain on JJ or QQ, so your AK is approx a 43:57 dog. So if you move all-in:

EV = 0.43(19200) - 0.57(8100) = +3639

For the flat call, you will hit 33% of the time, and he will miss about 90% of the time, giving you a 30:70 shot:

EV = 0.3(7800) - 0.7(3000) = +240

How can the all-in bet be worse than the call? Are my numbers right here? (I often confuse the bollox out of these EV calcs).

Regarding your fold equity, unless villain is a very bad player (or is very good, and can put you on exactly Aces or Kings), you have none. When you move all-in, he just has to win 26% of the time to break even.

Ste05

I wasn't too concerned with the maths in this question, if this was a cash game, I think this would be alot easier and a worthwhile exercise to embark on.

I think here, assuming your read is right, tournament strategy takes over from general maths, etc. that you would use to determine what the most "profitable" play over a long period would be, i.e. a cash game.

IMO the EV of a call in a cash game might be fine, but you need to put in all the other factors, such as the weakening of your stack for the futue of the tournament, reducing the amount of fold equity you have over potential future opponents, the reduction in your chances of cashing in the tournament if you don't hit, it's just not as simple as a straight forward EV question.

I agree here that there's no fold equity here IMHO, so you raise knowing you'll be called, there's also little or no implied odds on a call, any good player will not put more chips in if an A or K comes down on the flop, and it basically comes down to whether you want a 50 50 shot or not.

padraig_f

lenny_leonard wrote:

I'm curious about the maths that's been put forward so far in this, 'cos I get different numbers for the all-in or call situation.

The OP puts villain on JJ or QQ, so your AK is approx a 43:57 dog. So if you move all-in:

EV = 0.43(19200) - 0.57(8100) = +3639

No, you've made a mistake here.

43% of the time you profit (19200-8100)=11100
57% of the time you lose 8100

so your overall profit is:
0.43*(11100) - 0.57*(8100) = $156

An easier way I find to do it is just to calculate your total pot equity and subtract what you have to call, i.e.

(19200 * 0.43)-8100 = $156

lenny_leonard wrote:

For the flat call, you will hit 33% of the time, and he will miss about 90% of the time, giving you a 30:70 shot:

EV = 0.3(7800) - 0.7(3000) = +240

I think you may have your starting numbers wrong here, it's only $1800 to call and the total pot will be $6600. So it would be:

(0.32*6600)-1800 = $312

or using your method: (0.32*4800) - (0.68*1800) = $312


Also remember that the outlay for the two bets is different. So it's:

$8100 to win $156

versus

$1800 to win $312

JuliusFranco

first of all i would never normally just call here but the maths is confusing me.

flat calling:

if you call you are only going to see a flop - if no A or K comes you are going to fold after 3 cards. if an A or K comes (and no Q) comes, he is going to fold. I thinks that's pretty certain. (lets exclude the nightmare flops of AKQ or AQx, KQx etc)

so i have about a 30% of winning if I call right?

over 100 hands, if I call it costs me 1800 * 100 = 180,000
of those 100 times, I will win 4800, 30 times = 144,000

So after 100 hands, I'm down 36000,
Thats an EV / average of -360 per hand

(Best case: If I win every time an A or K flops (33.6%), then thats still -187.2 per hand)

Raising all in:

now assume he's always going to call and he has exactly the same amount of chips as you.
you have a 43% of winning after 5 board cards (according to cardplayer)

After 100 hands you will pay (1800+6300 8100 * 100 = 810,000
you will win 11100 (4800 pot plus 6300 extra he needs to put in) 43 times = 477300

therefore you're EV would be -3,327 per hand :eek:
this can't be right??? where am i going wrong?

(i really hope i'm not embarrassing myself!)

Hitman Actual

padraig_f wrote:

No, you've made a mistake here.

43% of the time you profit (19200-8100)=11100
57% of the time you lose 8100

so your overall profit is:
0.43*(11100) - 0.57*(8100) = $156

An easier way I find to do it is just to calculate your total pot equity and subtract what you have to call, i.e.

(19200 * 0.43)-8100 = $156

You're right, of course... I need to pay more attention. This figure makes a lot more sense, considering that you need to win approx 42% of the time to break even, so it's a lot more marginal than I thought with a 43% chance of winning.

padraig_f wrote:

I think you may have your starting numbers wrong here, it's only $1800 to call and the total pot will be $6600. So it would be:

(0.32*6600)-1800 = $312

or using your method: (0.32*4800) - (0.68*1800) = $312

Yep, I thought the raise was 3K more back to you, not 1.8K.

Hitman Actual

JuliusFranco wrote:

Raising all in:

now assume he's always going to call and he has exactly the same amount of chips as you.
you have a 43% of winning after 5 board cards (according to cardplayer)

After 100 hands you will pay (1800+6300 8100 * 100 = 810,000
you will win 11100 (4800 pot plus 6300 extra he needs to put in) 43 times = 477300

Doing it this way, 43% of the time you gain T11,100, and 57% of the time you lose T8,100.

So over 100 hands: (43*11,100) - (57*8100) = 15,600. The average in 100 hands is +T156, as in the previous post (if you ignore my original mistake!).