Peak Oil and The Irish Government's Response

MeatProduct

Over the past few months I've been hearing more and more about a major problem that we may well be facing within the next 20 years, that problem is the depletion of oil resources. It wasn't until about 2 months ago that I fully realised the implications of this on our society. It's not simply a matter of paying more at the pump. Oil plays a massive roll in production of all sorts including that of solar panels and wind turbines, the supposed alternatives to oil.

This article is one of the best I have come across on the matter. Here is another site that discusses it.

I would like to know what is being done in Ireland to prepare for depleted oil resources. Germany has a scheme that gives 50 cent credit per kilowatt-hour for a solar installation (link). While Japan uses 30% of all solar panels in the world (link).

While Ireland does not receive a lot of solar radiation (link) it certainly has a lot of wind and extensive coast line.

Which government department is directly responsible for this?

Nick

Reaver772

Dont worry the Government is preparing to issue shovels to the population so we can all bury our heads in the sand. As for the government department responsible for promoting renewable energy thats located in the basement of the dail, next to the janitors closet (you'll need to bring a torch to find it and a sandwich or some sort of weapon to get past the demon guardian )

daveirl

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mike65

Reaver772 wrote:

As for the government department responsible for promoting renewable energy thats located in the basement of the dail, next to the janitors closet (you'll need to bring a torch to find it and a sandwich or some sort of weapon to get past the demon guardian )

As Arthur Dent might have said!

Clearly there's trouble ahead at some point which means a policy is required which is why this country does'nt seem to have one of any detail.

It'll have to a broad sweep of changes taking in reduction of energy use as much as promoting alternatives to fossil fuel. We must have the least efficent homes anywhwere in the developed world. The way we transport ppl to and from work and school is clearly wastefull (step forward the school run mum in her BMW X5). Most buses have plowed the same routes for decades yet where ppl live and work has changed markedly. I dunno if this would ever fly but large employers should get tax breaks to run a fleet of commuter buses
I'm sure companies like Intel could make such a scheme work given the numbers that live within 15 miles of Lexlip.

Mike.

Cork

It is not only the government - Irish Business AND general public have to mend our c02 ommissions.

People bash bush over Kyoto - but the Irish are well over our limit.

As a county we have no oil - we don't determine oil prices.

But I am sure energy taxes are on the way.

MeatProduct

Right now I agree with Daveirl, unfortunately we will more than likely face a nuclear-powered future. Nothing else can offer viable alternatives to an entire country, especially Ireland.

Daveirl, do you know much about fuel cell powered cars? Must the car be built from the gound up or can an electric car be converted? What will become of all the normal cars...

Car pooling should be a major focus for the coming years. More saftey for cyclists on the roads wouldn't go astray either, as it is now I am not as comfortable with cyclying to work as I would have been when I was cycling 10 years ago.

Does anyone know which minister I can write to in order to find out what action is being taken?

Nick

Moriarty

I guess it depends what aspect of it you're intrested in. There's the Department of Communicatins, Marine and Natural Resources which would be involved in the alternative energies sort of thing I'd imagine, and the Department of the Environment would probably have a say in there somewhere about some of this stuff too.

It'll be intresting to see how long it takes before nuclear is once again floated as an alternative source of power here. I'd be happy to see the government get to work today on prepairing infrastructure and systems for the eventual deployment of nuclear power stations around the country.

I haven't seen any polling that I can remember within the last 10 years over whether the general public have eased their view on nuclear energy or not though, those results could be intresting one way or the other.

bonkey

MeatProduct wrote:

Daveirl, do you know much about fuel cell powered cars? Must the car be built from the gound up or can an electric car be converted? What will become of all the normal cars...

Good questions.

How about this one:

Have they solved the catalyst problem yet?

Despite fuel cells being billed as the future of so much including teh automotive industry, last time I read up on the state of play, platinum diodes were needed as the only good-enough catalyst for the reaction....and there wassn't enough platinum in the entire planet to replace just the cars in the US with fuel cell-based ones.

Car pooling should be a major focus for the coming years.

As should every single other intelligent means of reducing our energy useage. Reduction is - at present - far and away the best weapon at our disposal. Unfortunately, governments are always reluctant to encourage frugality of any type, believing that people will think that if they're told not to waste X, Y or Z, it will collapse the economy.


jc

daveirl

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fly_agaric

MeatProduct wrote:

I would like to know what is being done in Ireland to prepare for depleted oil resources.

At a guess, absolutely zip at a government level!
If you subscribe to all the doomsday predictions about a peak in oil production, my advice would be to go to your nearest church with a sandwich board and pray rather than waste your breath talking to your td about it.

MeatProduct

Bonkey, can conventional cars be converted to use fuel cells? I just assumed that it would be too much of a conversion. Even though electric cars are not a real answer they do offer a better "upgrade" option for a future where fuel-cells might be used. Perhaps the government should give incentives to buy EVs (electric vehicles).

As mentioned in this thread already there are vast amounts of things that the government could do in order to better prepare the country for this inevitable transition (personally I feel transitition could easily be swapped for crisis).

Fly_agaric, I think discussing it on a forum is a good start as it raises awareness even though all the posters so far seem to be well aware of it.

Nick

bonkey

MeatProduct wrote:

Bonkey, can conventional cars be converted to use fuel cells?

Practically speaking, I'd say not. Theoretically, it certainly would be possible, but I think the weight/power distributions wouldn't work all that well. BEsides, if you check prototypes like the HyWire from GM, you'll see that its quite radically different from existing automotive tech.

Bear in mind that fc's are considered to be at least a decade away from mainstream...and perhaps 2-3 times that, so all of this could change.

Even though electric cars are not a real answer

Nothing reliant on hydrocarbons is a real answer. However, any improvement should be welcomed. Currently hybrids and/or the ultra-efficient small cars are the best option. In a couple of years, it may be hybrid-only.....

Perhaps the government should give incentives to buy EVs (electric vehicles).

If the technology isn't price-competetive, then its never going to be a viable alternative - incentives won't change that. If it is price competetive, then incentives can work to give it a boost into the market, but I really don't see EVs as being suitable for widespread use.

As mentioned in this thread already there are vast amounts of things that the government could do in order to better prepare the country for this inevitable transition

Could do? Sure.
Is likely to do? Not a chance. That would involve recognising and admitting to the scope of the problem....and thats simply too much political suicide:

"I know we've failed to do a good job fixing the hospitals, the roads, and everything else, but its time for you to pull your weight in this whole green thing....oh....and you'll have to buy a new car while you're at it.

Fly_agaric, I think discussing it on a forum is a good start as it raises awareness even though all the posters so far seem to be well aware of it.

More importantly, you'll find that despite being aware, ppl will have vastly differing ideas/information/education on what is/isn't the right way forward, why, how, and at what cost. Until there is some sort of agreement, there can never be meaningful pressure brought to bear.

You'll never be listened to if you're a million voices agreeing on the problem but offering a million solutions. One solution, on the other hand....

...its just a question of which one...which is where discussion like this comes back in.

jc

bonkey

fly_agaric wrote:

If you subscribe to all the doomsday predictions about a peak in oil production, my advice would be to go to your nearest church with a sandwich board and pray rather than waste your breath talking to your td about it.

And what if you only subscribe to the more realistic, sensible and logical predications about it?

What should you do then?

jc

MeatProduct

Bonkey, it's really quite amazing how ill-prepared Ireland is for this (link here showing Ireland's sources of energy). On an individual level I can see, if people act now, it might be possible to get over this transition but it will take a change in thinking. Of course on a national scale it's a different story altogether. To quote from the article I linked to from above, steps that can be taken:


1.Inform others; Many people have found that showing their friends/relatives the documentary film, End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream to be an effective introduction to Peak Oil.Global Public Media has a large archive of Peak Oil related multimedia you might want to show them. An index of audio interviews with the author of this article is available here.
2.Get your financial house in order. Jim Puplava's website Financial Sense is as good a place to start as you're going to find for information about oil and the economy.The Solari Series by Catherine Austin Fitts is, in my opinion, the best source of financial information out there. Free interviews with Fitts are available here.
3.Get as self-sufficient as possible as soon as possible. See the news and updates for more information. To discuss practical preparations for a post-petroleum world, check out the Yahoo group, "Running on Empty 2."
4.If you're feeling a bit terrified or shocked, please realize that feelings of anxiety, depression, etc. are pretty much par-for the course when it comes to learning about this. See the letters section for some examples. If you're looking for a place to talk to others about this stuff, consider the Yahoo group "Running on Empty 3", the PeakOil.com forums, or see if there is an Oil Awareness Group or Post Carbon outpost in your area.
5.If you're religious, pray.


Nick

mike65

Energy Consumption by Source, 1999 (in thousand metric tons oil equivalent)

---

IRELAND---EUROPE

---

WORLD
Total Fossil Fuels

---

13702----2117484----7689047

Coal and coal products

---

2489---480313

---

2278524

Crude oil and natural gas liquids

---

2886---906066

---

3563084

Natural Gas

---

2996----786787

---

2012559
==================================================

Nuclear

---

0

---

303885

---

661901

Hydroelectric

---

73----60847

---

222223

Primary solid biomass (incl. fuelwood)---131--56374

---

1035139

Biogas and liquid biomass

---

37----1919

---

14931

Geothermal

---

0

---

4886

---

43802

Solar

---

0

---

390

---

2217

Wind

---

16

---

1227

---

1748

Tide, wave, and ocean

---

0

---

50

---

53

Geothermal, the idiot proof way to generate energy should be the first port of call for the government, every new building that can use it should have geo-thermal heat pumping built in.

Heat pumps in Ireland

Sustainable Energy Ireland

As ever the Germans are ahead of us

Mike.

netwhizkid

Reaver772 wrote:

Dont worry the Government is preparing to issue shovels to the population so we can all bury our heads in the sand.

Well the government for one has buried their head in the sand, We as a country have the potential to export green energy after fulfilling all our own needs. But as long as shell can have 5 irish people jailed and fianna fail are in power we will continue to fork out billions for oil, which we could produce the same energy at home otherwise. We have limitless wind, but whenever any one comes to utilise it, some hippy (usually not irish) living in the woods with a few goats will come along and fight tooth and nail to stop the wind farm or other green energy plant being built. Like these people are supposed to want to save the enviornement like me too, why hinder a massive step forwards. Likewise the government should convert the Irish sugar factory in Carlow into Ethanol production just add 10% to normal unleaded petrol and if every forecourt sold this it would be the equivelant of taking 1 of every 10 cars off the road as they'd be Co2 neutral. Ethanol and bio-diesel could provide alot of our motoring fuel needs as well as boosting our im-battled farmers. But why should they bother they get paid to do nothing, while we import food from the otherside of the globe at massive Co2 cost. Unless this government gets the kick in the teetch it deserves nothing will happen. We as a nation need to force fresh elections very soon for our own futures sake.

mike65

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=256977

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=285676

Mike.

fly_agaric

MeatProduct wrote:

Fly_agaric, I think discussing it on a forum is a good start as it raises awareness even though all the posters so far seem to be well aware of it.

To clarify, I wasn't getting at you or your topic or the way you raised it. I just have no faith in the ability of the government to help. They have a good record of failing miserably to solve problems that are simple compared to this one. The soultion of problems related to peak oil isn't easy. I'd also fully agree with what bonkey said about the government and political suicide.

bonkey wrote:

And what if you only subscribe to the more realistic, sensible and logical

predications about it?

What should you do then?

jc

Which are the realistic ones? The ones that don't suggest we all head for the countryside and stock up on the essentials, learn to farm, and arm ourselves to the teeth to mow down the troglodytes who will crawl out of the cities and suburbs when Lidl runs out of rashers and bread...ie. embrace the US survivalist/ZOG conspiracy-nut/UFO cultist lifestyle?

The amount an individual can do if they really believe there is a serious likelyhood of the extreme scenario above occuring is very limited by money, knowledge, time, and most of all not wanting to seem like a crazy.

Anyway,...some ideas for things the government could do but won't do - some of them could also apply to a committed individual:

Strict new building regs emphasing the saving of energy. Inclusion of features in new buildings for generation of renewable energy (I suppose this would need to be incentivised but the builders etc will still raise hell over it).

Call time on the car dependant US-style suburban and exurban development going on around Ireland's cities. Higher densities of people living and working in more compact, more efficient cities with rural hinterlands that can supply food.

I know that alot of the peak-oil people seem to say that a smaller scale, more local society composed of basically villages surrounded by farmland would work best in a world where oil has become much more expensive and less available, but IMO we are still going to need cities. They'll just have to be alot less wasteful of energy than they are now.

Money for rail - both freight and passenger. We'll need it if cars become luxuries for the rich again and trucking items long distances becomes completely uneconomical. Electrify the busiest freight and commuter lines. Maybe we'll be using the canals for freight again too!

Money for mass transport in the cities generally. Preferably systems that use as little fuel as possible - electric trams, light rail, fuel cell and electric buses (if these are ever available?).

We'll probably need nuclear plants (one or two anyway). Unfortunately, the greens and many governments have made a huge stink over Sellafield and most Irish people feel that nuclear power=satan so there'll be some scrap to get one built. Even if brownouts start to bring people around, the unlucky ones who draw the short straw and end up with it in their back yard will fight like blazes to stop it. (Let me guess, the b/¦st/¦rds will put it out West where there are less people to complain or they'll stick it in a poorer area of Dublin.)

The biodiesel is a good idea too. I always thought it was only workable for a place like Brazil with masssive farms the size of small European countries that could be turned over to monoculture of a fuel crop.

Perhaps the government should look at socking away a few months supply of oil into a reserve that could help cushion the effect of price spikes due to global troubles (which would become more common supply vs demand becomes ever tighter).

On what people may see as a xenophobic and racist note, maybe we should look at curtailing our massive immigration rate too (although we can't do much about the EU immigrants which make up most of this obviously). We won't have to worry about chasing the holy grail of "economic growth" by having an eternally increasing wage-slave and consumer population any more if the peak-oil people are correct.

bonkey wrote:

You'll never be listened to if you're a million voices agreeing on the problem but offering a million solutions. One solution, on the other hand....

For this problem, there will not be one solution (unless its a magictechno deus-ex-machina like fusion or a massive unforseen oil discovery ). It is too complex. Ireland (God help us) will have to think up its own solutions appropriate to this country. It involves reorganising much of the way we live our lives - something that takes decades. Slightly longer than your average FF/PeeDee government term anyway. Another reason for them not to give a sh1t.

rsynnott

fly_agaric wrote:

For this problem, there will not be one solution (unless its a magictechno deus-ex-machina like fusion .

All going well, we may have practical fusion in the next couple of decades. In the mean-time, fission is a good choice, and indeed the only sensible choice.

Reaver772 wrote:

As for the government department responsible for promoting renewable energy thats located in the basement of the dail, next to the janitors closet (you'll need to bring a torch to find it and a sandwich or some sort of weapon to get past the demon guardian )

No, she's in Health now.

amp2000

wtf *shakes head*

I was going to keep my mouth shut till I seen this!

daveirl wrote:

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What utter bull****, it does not become less & less of an issue as the cost of running oil based vehicles goes up. What are you, an economist
Cost in energy & cost in paper money are two COMPLETELY different things.
It ONLY becomes less of an issue when your using less ENERGY, not paper money, ie currency.

It's very simple, if it takes more energy to make a fuel (by whatever means) than you get from burning it, then it's a waste of energy. Period.

In even simpler terms, it's like using 10 litres of petrol to drive somewhere to get 5 free litres of petrol.

See what I'm getting at yet?? Look into the EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) of each alternative before falsely telling people such & such will work.

daveirl wrote:

We like everyone else will move to Nuclear when we have to.

yep, no problem, I hear argos are doing DIY nuclear generators we can all buy when there is an oil or natural gas crisis. You can build it in a few hours I hear
Seriously though, nuclear takes alot of time to ramp up, we have missed the boat, the boat hasn't only sailed, it's f***ing sunk!

daveirl wrote:

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At least you said there is no real alternatives. The problem is your forgetting is if we, ie the western world have an energy crisis, the economy goes pearshaped & the people that are importing food are out of business as are all the other companies that import ****e like 48" plasma screens tv's etc etc. (a bit dramatic but you get the picture :eek: )

MeatProduct wrote:

I would like to know what is being done in Ireland to prepare for depleted oil resources.

**** all, I know a friend of a friend wrote to whoever is supposed to be in charge of this & the reply he got was something to the effect of "It's a european problem, ask them".

And get this, the other day I read how in the Irish Independant that the irish gov were given 20M by the EU for renewable energy & they didn't spend it.
Morale of the story, look after yourself because the gov won't :rolleyes:

rsynnott

amp2000 wrote:

yep, no problem, I hear argos are doing DIY nuclear generators we can all buy when there is an oil or natural gas crisis. You can build it in a few hours I hear
Seriously though, nuclear takes alot of time to ramp up, we have missed the boat, the boat hasn't only sailed, it's f***ing sunk!

Argos aren't quite selling them yet, but building a nuclear reactor is no longer a sort of great national project; they are commodity items mass-produced by large companies (Siemens and Toshiba spring to mind). It looks like very quickly growing market, and India and China are making huge investments in it, for instance.

amp2000

rsynnott wrote:

but building a nuclear reactor is no longer a sort of great national project;

It is if you actually intend to power the nation with it.

rsynnott wrote:

they are commodity items mass-produced by large companies (Siemens and Toshiba spring to mind). It looks like very quickly growing market, and India and China are making huge investments in it, for instance.

Have you got a link to that, or more importantly, what the EROEI is on that particular technology? I suspect not because it is a net energy loser like almost everything else.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not shooting down all alternatives, I'm just being realistic.

daveirl

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rsynnott

daveirl wrote:

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No, you've got the wrong idea. No-one cares about you or your car. The problem is the large-scale use of oil in generating power, aircraft, shipping, trucking and so on. Without a working transport system, most of the developed world will starve in a month.

daveirl wrote:

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And we still don't know how many people have that.

daveirl wrote:

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And that looks set to wipe out half of sub-Saharan Africa.

daveirl wrote:

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You really think that in a world where politicians don't look beyond the next election we'll migrate a VAST oil-based infrastructure to something that will last longer? Do you live in some alternate universe?

fly_agaric

daveirl wrote:

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I don't subscribe to the scare stories either, but oil and gas aren't just any old economic resource. Hope for the best, but prepare and plan for what the future might bring. The Irish government think plans are for other people to worry about however.

I'll give you the CJD, but last I heard AIDS is a massive disaster. Obviously, rich countries have avoided the worst effects by spending money educating people about it (hence the scare ) and having large private companies, universities, government labs etc that can do research into it and come up drug therapies.

If you would like to see what the effects of AIDS in these countries may have been without these actions and abilities, take a look at much of Africa.

daveirl wrote:

Oh wait I forgot about the overpopulation.

Oddly enough, AIDS has put a dent in that - but stay tuned...

daveirl wrote:

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"Running out of oil" (really, oil being a scarce and expensive resource) will make a difference alright. What kind of a difference depends on the planning and thought for the future we put in today. If we don't put in any and hope for the best, the doomsayers may be right.

MeatProduct

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Daveirl, I shared your opinion a few months back but since I have been reading more about the whole situation I feel switching cars will be unrealistic. Once people actually realise that oil production has peaked they will, as you say, seek to buy alternatives. Unfortunately a lot of the manufacturing processes are oil-based so the cost of producing a hybrid car will increase. This might not be a problem in itself but combine that with a failing ecomomy and people will have a very difficult time affording an "alternative" that is truly not an alternative at all. Hybrid cars still require oil in their running and even if they are entirely electric where does the electricity come from?
To get a little more drastic, when black-outs begin (they will on account of Ireland importing 90% of it's energy needs, see earlier links) people will not be so concerned about how to get to work since getting water and food will take precedence.

Nick

daveirl

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RedPlanet

Buying a Hybrid car is too little and too late.
I believe that such things are really just a marketing ploy, trying to make a quick buck because in reality every single component within that "hybrid" car comes from industries that are 100% oil dependant.
So how do you expect to retool all these industries to be powered off some other fuel?
Remember that petroleum is the best resource in terms of Energy-Returned-for-Energy-Invested, nothing else even comes close.
At what point does for example: the steel or mining industries decide to attempt to re-tool?(i wonder is there even a historical precedent).. When oil is 100$ a barrel, or 300$ a barrel?
It's too late then, because when oil is 100 or 300$ a barrel the statiticians and accountants do the math and conclude that it is too expensive to re-tool.
The crash of Peak Oil doesn't happen when we've pumped the last drop of oil from the ground, it happens when it is too expensive to continue pumping oil from the ground.

MeatProduct

Here is an Irish site worth having a look at.

Nick

daveirl

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stasiu

Hi

I'm glad someone is talking about PEAK OIL. I have been educating myself about this issue for a few months now.
People don't realise just how vital oil is to our modern lives and now that we have (according to many geologists, economists, magazines, articles, films) reached the end of cheap oil (and gas will follow soon)
Jacques Chirac was not joking when he recently said we have reached rthe end of the Industrial Age- this is not scaremongering. There is nothing that will replace oil easily and we are HOPELESSLY addicted to the stuff.

In the next few years (we are indeed already seeing the beginnings of this)expect huge increases in the the price of oil (and therefore transport, food, electricity and likely the beginning of a huge recession if not depression.

In the meantime insulate your home, start growing your own food, get rid of that (soon to be obsolete) car and learn to become more self-sufficient.

See: www.postcarbon.org, www.peakoil.ie, www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, www.peakoil.com
Worth ordering the DVD "End of Suburbia" and reading "The Party's Over" by Richard Heinburg

I attended a Peak oil conference in Kinsale recently. Present were top geologists and other experts. Even Duncan Stewart was there and TD Eamon Ryan.
This issue is not a joke. The s*** is about to hit the fan. If you think oil prices are high now you'd better see what's to come.....
Brian Cowen said we had better get used to high oil prices, J. Chirac said they will remain high for DECADES (in other words for all time....)

stasiu

Some small problems who think we acn just adapt and change over to hybrid- it takes 20 barrels of oil just to make a car, hybrid or no hybrid. There is NO easy substitute.
Asphalt for road surfacing is also an oil product.......
The trend now for hybrid vehicles is just a desperate attempt by car makers to deal with this issue, but it will merely delay Peak Oil for a short period assuming everyone switches over to hybrid.

You're missing the point - we can't go on living as we have been up to now. Very soon life will drastically change, become simpler, more modest and TOTALLY different. If you have any doubts look at history when oil prices go up -recessions inevitably follow. But this time oil prices will stay high: currently 65$ a barrel (it reached $70 recently) while a year ago it was $31.
Sure it will go up and down for maybe 2/3 years, but the trend will be upward and after that will stay high.
Look at what happened to the Roman Empire when resources were squandered-this time it's on a global scale and almost ALL resources are stretched to the limit.

Zaph0d

The government can't believe that oil is going to peak soon or they wouldn't have given the NRA €17bn to spend on roads over the last decade. There are no subsidies for geothermal or solar home heating. However you can get a subsidy for air travel within Ireland between locations already linked by rail.

Planning guidelines are still full of aesthetic rules about not building anything out of step with its neighbours rather than obliging people to build near public transport nodes. Up to 40% of new housing each year is granted permission to be built in isolated, car-dependent locations.

We're considering building a motorway beneath Dublin Bay and we've already decided to spend €1bn on increasing the peak hour caapcity of the M50 so that more people can drive to work. Meanwhile we've run out of money for buses (but still have cash to build empty QBCs, like the N32).

A lot done, more to do.

soma

Nuclear power is not a long term solution, the world's resources of the materials used in nuclear power production are just as finite as oil. Last estimate I heard was about 80 years.

amp2000

daveirl wrote:

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That's a flawed theory when it comes to energy.

daveirl wrote:

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It doesn't work like that, and your 2.40 a litre example is laughable, it's going to go alot higher than that till something gives, ie the economy crashes.
Within the past few months for the first time, oil demand has exceeded supply, that's why the price keeps going up without dropping, what your seeing now is demand destruction.
There isn't enough to go around so expect the price of a barrel to continue to go up till people can't afford it.

Do the research into it yourself, we seriously have no viable alternatives to just switch to, it should have been done 20 years ago using a combination of solar/tidal/wind & maybe nuclear but I think we could do without nuclear. Since absolutely none of this is being done I've come to the conclusion we are screwed.

Anyway, that's the bad news, the good news is america is in a situation 10 x worse than us They havent enough natural gas to last a cold winter & will have a major oil crisis if Rita does much damage to the oil refineries in texas this weekend. We can watch what happens to america on tv & the internet so we have an idea of what's coming.

Anyone want to bet against oil hitting $80 a barrel next week? LOL

fly_agaric

amp2000 wrote:

Anyway, that's the bad news, the good news is america is in a situation 10 x worse than us

Sorry, I fail to see what's "good" about that?

I wouldn't gloat too much about the US's massive oil habit anyway seeing as we are treading a similar path with car-dependant sprawl around Dublin and other cities and a government that doesn't really like funding any kinds of public transport too well but loves to blow the big bucks on building new roads.

soma

fly_agaric wrote:

I wouldn't gloat too much about the US's massive oil habit anyway seeing as we are treading a similar path with car-dependant sprawl around Dublin and other cities

Arent we, per capita, the most car dependent society on the planet now..?

BolBill

The gov are only interested in building roads, FF are all builders. They dont give a toss about the price of oil or anything else, they know we are stupid enough to pay over the odds for everything and still vote them in again. Lets face, Ahern is hardly someone to respect, the idiot shouldnt be allowed to dress himself FFS so this thread seems quite pointless.

ISAW

daveirl wrote:

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what will you do with the waste?
And what do you mean "when we have to"? You seem to think Nuclear power provides costless electricity when even disregarding wast it is only slightly cheaper and the power stations still only last 30 or so years. Decommissioning them is VERY expensive.

There is currently no real alternatives,

There are currently several alternatives. Heat exchange from the ground for one. If you refer to transport I have no idea how you think we are going to have nuclear powered trains and cars!

with Nuclear we'll have cheap electricity which will allow us move to Fuel Cell cars powered by Hydrogen which can be extracted using electrolysis since we'll have excess electricity from the Nuclear Power.

I have two problems with this. first you dont seem to grasp the economic reeality. Nuclear power promised "meterless electricity" in the fifties and sixties. It just isnt so. Second you don't seem to grasp the laws of physics. Everything runs down in the end. Power stations have to be replaced. Radioactives have to come from somewhere. Everything runs out. Even the Sun! But at least with the sun we have 4,500 million years! With nuclear and fossil fuels we havent much more than a century. We will eventually have to move to a different energy paradigm. Mass distributed electricity is NOT going to last forever. People will have to have their own heat and power. Personal transports probably will as well.

Moriarty

Mass distributed electricity will continue because our entire society is built around it. Ways will be found. Generating electricity really isn't that difficult, it's just a matter of swings and roundabouts over which way(s) we'll continue to do it.

rsynnott

ISAW wrote:

what will you do with the waste?
And what do you mean "when we have to"? You seem to think Nuclear power provides costless electricity when even disregarding wast it is only slightly cheaper and the power stations still only last 30 or so years. Decommissioning them is VERY expensive.

The first generation of nuclear power plants, being decomissioned currently, were not a great success. That is not a surprise. First generation ANYTHING is generally not great. Some of the more modern designs are rated for centuries, and there's one design which results in no transuranic waste. Waste disposal is, in any case, not the great problem people think it to be. Very far underground in a tectonically stable area, just as the Swedish are doing at the moment (Sweden is the first country to implement a permanent disposal plan)

ISAW wrote:

There are currently several alternatives. Heat exchange from the ground for one. If you refer to transport I have no idea how you think we are going to have nuclear powered trains and cars!

Trains; electricity. Electric road vehicles can be built, particularly larger vehicles. And there ARE designs for atom-powered trains, you know.

ISAW wrote:

I have two problems with this. first you dont seem to grasp the economic reeality. Nuclear power promised "meterless electricity" in the fifties and sixties.

Yes, those were lies. No-one who understood the subject, presumably, fell for them.

ISAW wrote:

With nuclear ... we havent much more than a century.

This is not actually the case. It was the case (within an order of magnitude at least) before fast-breeder reactors, use of Thorium as a fuel, improved reprocessing and many, many other modern innovations.

You are thinking of the nuclear energy of the 50s, and that is the problem. Things really have advanced hugely.

ISAW wrote:

We will eventually have to move to a different energy paradigm. Mass distributed electricity is NOT going to last forever. People will have to have their own heat and power. Personal transports probably will as well.

What do you mean by "their own heat and power"? Local generation, from some mysterious magic source? Sounds... expensive. Economies of scale.

amp2000

Moriarty wrote:

Mass distributed electricity will continue because our entire society is built around it. Ways will be found.

Funnily enough, most people actually believe that :rolleyes:

rsynnott wrote:

What do you mean by "their own heat and power"? Local generation, from some mysterious magic source? Sounds... expensive. Economies of scale.

I'm pretty sure he means renewable energy like wind, solar etc.

Moriarty

Funnily enough, most people also believe the earth is round.

Those crazy fruits!

amp2000

Moriarty wrote:

Funnily enough, most people also believe the earth is round.

Classic, how can I argue with that :rolleyes:

Moriarty

amp2000 wrote:

Funnily enough, most people actually believe that :rolleyes:

amp2000 wrote:

Classic, how can I argue with that :rolleyes:

Can somone connect the dots for me?

amp2000

I'd have given you a better response if you actually had something to add, saying "Mass distributed electricity will continue because our entire society is built around it" is retarded. It's actually so retarded there is little point in even telling you why it's retarded.

Good luck, your gonna need it

rsynnott

amp2000 wrote:

I'd have given you a better response if you actually had something to add, saying "Mass distributed electricity will continue because our entire society is built around it" is retarded. It's actually so retarded there is little point in even telling you why it's retarded.

Good luck, your gonna need it

Okay, please detail your magic decentralised power system.

amp2000

rsynnott wrote:

Okay, please detail your magic decentralised power system.

It's not magic, it's common sense, we could probably do it is with a basket of alternatives such as wind, solar & tidal power. The problem is it takes time to ramp this up & waiting till were in a full blown energy crisis is too late IMO.

And it's not my job to detail a decentralised power system, what would be the point, it's not like it would be actually implemented. So what I'm hopefully going to do is get some solar & wind power on my own bit of land & look after myself & my family cos it's painfully obvious the government cant or wont help me when we start experiencing rolling blackouts & a crashing economy.

What most people don't realise is when they are reading reports putting the peak 20 years away they are assuming saudi arabia are telling the truth about their reserves. If the saudis are lying as I suspect they are then we have ALREADY passed the peak. I can't think of any other reason why the saudis will not let outsiders verify their reserves.

By the way, someone mentioned "The end of suburbia", I've met the producer of this film & he has no problem with people downloading it for free, you can get it on torrent sites.
This is also a good site with lots of videos & interviews about peak oil http://globalpublicmedia.com/
There is some good stuff here aswell, check out BBC's war for oil. http://www.thedossier.ukonline.co.uk/video_iraqwar.htm

rsynnott

amp2000 wrote:

It's not magic, it's common sense, we could probably do it is with a basket of alternatives such as wind, solar & tidal power. The problem is it takes time to ramp this up & waiting till were in a full blown energy crisis is too late IMO.

Err, you know the wind stops blowing sometimes, right? The sun stops shining? Tidal power's frigteningly expensive to build and (especially) to maintain? And certainly not for home use.

And, no, batteries ARE NOT a solution.

"Oh, sorry, Mr Smith, we'll finish transplanting your heart when the lights come back on. A force 4 should get us some visbility, anyway".

amp2000 wrote:

And it's not my job to detail a decentralised power system, what would be the point, it's not like it would be actually implemented. So what I'm hopefully going to do is get some solar & wind power on my own bit of land & look after myself & my family cos it's painfully obvious the government cant or wont help me when we start experiencing rolling blackouts & a crashing economy.

Same problem as before. And if you advocate it, you really should be willing to expain why you believe to be possible or practical.

amp2000 wrote:

What most people don't realise is when they are reading reports putting the peak 20 years away they are assuming saudi arabia are telling the truth about their reserves. If the saudis are lying as I suspect they are then we have ALREADY passed the peak. I can't think of any other reason why the saudis will not let outsiders verify their reserves.

This may well be the case. That doesn't make "individual power through magic" a good solution. Fission would tide us over until fusion becomes practical.

amp2000

rsynnott wrote:

Err, you know the wind stops blowing sometimes, right? The sun stops shining? Tidal power's frigteningly expensive to build and (especially) to maintain? And certainly not for home use.

This is our problem, I know they are not perfect but they do work. or at least they will help.

rsynnott wrote:

Same problem as before. And if you advocate it, you really should be willing to expain why you believe to be possible or practical.

That's all I can think of doing for some power on an individual basis although I'll probably do some research on geothermal. I know it's not a perfect solution & I don't expect to always have power, a little power would be helpful though, don't you agree.
You see this is what worries me, we have NO viable alternatives to switch to so we can continue to consume the way we are now, all we can do is implement things that will help. If we dont & we run out of oil & NG then that's it, the party is over.

rsynnott wrote:

This may well be the case. That doesn't make "individual power through magic" a good solution. Fission would tide us over until fusion becomes practical.

I never said it was a good solution, it's the only solution I can think of. To depend on nuclear would be to depend on the irish government which I'm not doing as they clearly have their head in the sand & have already left it too late.
Also, I dont know much about nuclear but I do know uranium is a finite resurce.
Aside from nuclear if you have any better ideas I'm all ears if it's not a net energy loser.

rsynnott

amp2000 wrote:

Also, I dont know much about nuclear but I do know uranium is a finite resurce.

Nuclear fission uses uranium and thorium, and we have enough for millenia. Nuclear fusion uses hydrogen, and we have an effectively unlimited supply of that.