A harsh lesson in variance

NickyOD

The last couple of weeks have been very stressful, definitely the worst 2 weeks of poker ever. I've been on a horrible dry spell in tournaments and basically just breaking even or slightly down in them. I decided it wasn't worth my time to play them any more and withdrew my money from PS, FT, and Bodog in order to focus on my cash game with the intention of coming back to tournaments in a few weeks.

As well as that my .5/1 NL game seemed to go stale. I was still winning but just barely. Slowly but slurely things started to grind to a halt and the profits grinded to a crawl. I was tired of struggling and eeking out small amounts. I needed to change.

Last year I made most of my money from 3/6 and 5/10 limit on Pokerstars. Since then I didn't really play much because I was well aware of the huge variance in the shorthanded game and didn't realy want the stress, but this time I figured I was experienced enough and had a big enough bankroll to weather any sudden storms, or so I thought.

I worked out that I'd only need a BB/100 of .75 in order to make $1000 a week becauise of the increase in rakeback. It didn't seem like a dificult task sice I was making about twice that last year.

It started of well. Up $410 after 1800 hands. Happy days are here again! I then took a hit for $600. I cut back to 2 tables and made back $400 so after about 3000 hands I was still up $200. That's fine. I then went on an unbelievably bad run and took a huge hit for $1000 in one night. In anger I smashed my new wireless mouse off the wall in the process. 3 times against the same oponent I lost to a set of Queens when I had Aces twice and Kings once. I flopped a set twice only to get outdrawn by a flush again to the exact same player who wasn' out playing me at all. In fact he wasn't very good, the deck just hit him in the face. On top of this I started to play very poorly. I was vulnerable to getting check raised a lot on the turn because of my aggressive shorthanded style and I didn't adapt. 2BBs here, 3BBs there, it all started to add up.

I took a day off from poker. I took the grand I made at the Fitz a few weeks ago and had some retail therapy. New mobile phone, new computer desk, New snazzy leather chair, new clothes. I wanted to keep the money fora live bankroll but **** it I needed to treat myself.

So I then asked for some advice from a friend of mine who is a winning 15/30 player. Not only that he's a kick ass tournament player too. On the same night he'd just won the $150 on Party and final tabled the $200 on Full Tilt. I sent him about 30 hands I felt I could have done better on. Out of those 30 hands he said he would only have played 1 hand differently and would have lost MORE than I did. WTF? He just said I was "running bad" and I would turn it around.

Alrighty then! Back to the tables. 4 more sessions of 3 tabling. I finish down on ALL 12 ****ING TABLES!!! Aaaaargh!!! I send my friend more hands, and he says he plays them the same. What the hell???? We both play basically the same style. The Lederer shorhanded school of limit holdem. I ask him to sit down at my tables so I can watch him play the same way as me and lose money. he ends up making $300 in an hour and I break even for the session. I'm certain I made no mistakes. He just keeps telling me to stick at, that I'm just running bad.

I've lost $2000. Since I was up $410 at one point , that's a swing of 241BBs. So much for a 300BB BR requirement. My friend had a 313BB downswing at 10/20. Matt - www.thepokerchronicles.com
had a 200 BB downswing last week... and Matt Matros had a 300 BB downswing last week... of course they are playing 30/60 but they are very good & winning players in the game...it happens to EVERYONE.

Sigh!

biteme

Ouch!
It does suck alright. I've been running bad for the guts of the last two months. I just can't seem to cash in anything. I build up a massive stack in a tourny and then bust out miles before the money with bad beat after bad beat. Can't seem to hit any kind of a run in cash games either. My game is mainly live so it's a loss over a longer period of time. I think all you can do is just keep playing through it and you'll come back. Although sometimes it feels like your playing badly as long as when you look back at the hands and don't think you should of played differently then it should turn around. It's difficult playing through bad patches.

Dr_Colossus

Hi Nicky. I have to say I know exactly what you're going through but more from a shorthanded NL perspective. I've only occasionally dabbled in limit and never anything higher than 5/10. It's not really my game as I find it too tedious and the inability to protect your big hands to draws that always seem to get there is just infuriating. However from researching the game I have to say that 500BB is the recommended bankroll requirement to compensate for the variance involved.
From my own short handed NL perspective I maintain a 20 buy-in bankroll requirement. Over the past two months I have been running ridiculously bad in pretty much every game I play. Any time I’m involved in a big pot with a strong holding someone always seems to river me with between 2 and 5 outs resulting in my bankroll taking quite a hit. Like yourself I’ve taken a break from MTTs as I can never get anything going loosing pretty much every 50/50 and 60/40 at key stages in the tournament not to mention the odd horrendous bad beat to eliminate me when things are going relatively well.
Given the necessity for reads in NL play I never play anymore than two tables at a time and lately sometimes only play the one. However no matter what I do I just can’t seem to get any kind of run together and either finish up small or down relatively big. I’ve recorded over 114 points of standard deviation over my past 25k hands which derives from downswings of between 4 and 8 buy-ins. I know this is too high even for short handed tables and from reviewing my play I know I’ve lost quite a lot of money due to tilting after a run of bad beats. This is something I’m trying to control but it’s extremely tough trying to keep the emotional aspect out of the game. I’ve also let my emotions take the better of me occasionally resulting in a few broken keys on my keyboard and once hitting and missing the desk so hard that I took all the skin off two of my knuckles exposing the bone (not recommended). Anyway I guess all we can do is continue with what I hope is good solid play and expect that eventually the tables will turn. It sure is tough though.

NickyOD

:mad:

Dr_Colossus wrote:

.....resulting in a few broken keys on my keyboard and once hitting and missing the desk so hard that I took all the skin off two of my knuckles exposing the bone

Ouchies! :eek: Well I've never actualy burt myself, but in a year I've broken 3 cups and 2 plates and one glass. Once taking a chunk of plaster off the wall with a cup, and now a mouse and a keyboard too. (I was gona replace those anyway. )

The hand where I smashed the mouse.......

I raise UTG with AQ suited, MP calls, Very loose SB reraises and I cap. MP calls. Flop is 6 A Q rainbown. SB bets I call, MP raises, SB call, I 3 bet, MP caps it, SB calls.

Turn is a beautiful 2 which also brings me a flush draw. SB leads the turn, I raise, MP folds. SB 3 bets and I cap it. He calls.

Turn is a King. He bets I raise he reraises and I call the 3 bet.

He shows a KK (no King of hearts so it was a 1 outer) Do you think he could have atleast put me on an Ace? Of course not.

The mouse went flying. Smashy! Smashy! :mad:

Hectorjelly

This happened to me last week, all at the same table to the same opponent within half and hour.

Villain min raises utg. I make it $10 with QQ. He calls, flop is 35T. He bets $30 I go all in he calls with TT. Ok not a bad beat, he played it well.

I raise several limpers with QQ. Flop is 249 (with 2 hearts). I bet and get 2 callers. Turn is a Q. MP bets out, I raise $50; villain calls, mp3 calls all in. River is a harmless looking 4. Villain checks, I bet $70. He calls with A5.

I get all in against him preflop with AA for $150. He has 33 and hits a 3.

Finally I double up through him, so I have about $230. I raise on the button with AQspades, he calls from the BB. The flop is Q 3 4 with 2 spades, so I have top pair and the nut flush draw. He bets $20. I make it $100 and he goes all in. I call. He has 97 clubs, so has 0 outs. Turn 7, river 9. nh

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

......He has 97 clubs, so has 0 outs. Turn 7, river 9. nh

Well, now you know my new handle on VC.

*hack* *hack*

Dr_Colossus

You won the second hand so Hector with trip Qs against his A high or was the river a 3 instead of the 4 to give him the wheel?

Hectorjelly

Dr_Colossus wrote:

You won the second hand so Hector with trip Qs against his A high or was the river a 3 instead of the 4 to give him the wheel?

Sorry flop was 239

Tackle

Hectorjelly wrote:

Finally I double up through him, so I have about $230. I raise on the button with AQspades, he calls from the BB. The flop is Q 3 4 with 2 spades, so I have top pair and the nut flush draw. He bets $20. I make it $100 and he goes all in. I call. He has 97 clubs, so has 0 outs. Turn 7, river 9. nh

That's fúcking unbelievable. About 66-1 in pokerstove. That guy must be on LSD to be making a play like that. There has to be some kind of balancing going on.
I had two sets beaten yesterday all in on the flop. One was a 66-1 shot and the other was a backdoor flush but at least those villains had actual hands.

Tackle

NickyOD wrote:

As well as that my .5/1 NL game seemed to go stale. I was still winning but just barely. Slowly but slurely things started to grind to a halt and the profits grinded to a crawl. I was tired of struggling and eeking out small amounts. I needed to change.

What went wrong with the NL? You were going well there for a while. Didn't you make a grand on the .25/.50 starting out. Why not move back down and pick up the easy cash.

JuliusFranco

i really hope it is just a bad run nicky and that it turns soon
keep the chin up!

NickyOD

Tackle wrote:

What went wrong with the NL? You were going well there for a while. Didn't you make a grand on the .25/.50 starting out. Why not move back down and pick up the easy cash.

I made 2.8K in the first 20K hands. HAlf .25/5 and half .5/1. Over the next 30K hands at .5/1 things slowed down and I made about 1.5K in that peiod. Take away the rakeback and I wasn't making much at all.

I've been playing online poker for over 3 years now and I've just gotten bored with low rolling. Also I'm frustrated that I haven't had seriuos cash in a MTT in what seems like forever and I've come close dozens of times. The amount of time I spend playing isn't really justifiable unless I can make more money because It's more than just a hobby. I guess I should have been more patient and waited until I had a bigger tank, but the BR requirements for .5/1 NL and 5/10 LM aren't much different. I honestly didn't think I could go on this bad a run but that was very naive. In my eagerness to take down a big score I've tried to force things too much, become an over aggressive player and ultimately self destructive.

bill_ashmount

NickyOD wrote:

I made 2.8K in the first 20K hands. HAlf .25/5 and half .5/1. Over the next 30K hands at .5/1 things slowed down and I made about 1.5K in that peiod. Take away the rakeback and I wasn't making much at all.

I've been playing online poker for over 3 years now and I've just gotten bored with low rolling. Also I'm frustrated that I haven't had seriuos cash in a MTT in what seems like forever and I've come close dozens of times. The amount of time I spend playing isn't really justifiable unless I can make more money because It's more than just a hobby. I guess I should have been more patient and waited until I had a bigger tank, but the BR requirements for .5/1 NL and 5/10 LM aren't much different. I honestly didn't think I could go on this bad a run but that was very naive. In my eagerness to take down a big score I've tried to force things too much, become an over aggressive player and ultimately self destructive.

Nicky,

Does this mean an end to your hopes of going pro???? Or are you just re-evaluating where and when you should play.

Looking forward to the next report.

NickyOD

bill_ashmount wrote:

Nicky,

Does this mean an end to your hopes of going pro???? Or are you just re-evaluating where and when you should play.

Looking forward to the next report.

I have no idea. I know there are players out there playing for a living who are not as good as me and I'm not really bothered if anyone thinks that's an arrogant thing to say.

I could go back to playing NL and play uuuber tight and eek out enough to live off no problem but that's not a life. Not having a casino/cardroom in Limerick is also a problem because I've done very well in live cash games. Matros says you need to put in 50,000 hands at LM 6 handed before I'll know where I'm at. If I lose much more I'll probably give poker a long break and concentrate on more important things before trying again.

mewso

It's certainly an interesting story so far Nicky. You could write a book Hopefully things will turn around.

willis

nicky, what does "i needed to earn a bb/100 of .75 mean?is it big bets for every 100 hands or something?sorry if this is stupid,im just in the process of learning limit poker.
cheers

henbane

willis wrote:

nicky, what does "i needed to earn a bb/100 of .75 mean?is it big bets for every 100 hands or something?sorry if this is stupid,im just in the process of learning limit poker.
cheers

Nail on head there. 0.75 big bets per 100 hands.

Lafortezza

I'm dreading my first really bad run. In my opinion I've run somewhere between averagely to very well since I've been playing online poker. Once I get BB set up in my current house I'll be giving poker a go as a viable second income. What are the odds I'll lose my bankroll the first night and be broke and out onthe street within the first week..

henbane

lafortezza wrote:

I'm dreading my first really bad run. In my opinion I've run somewhere between averagely to very well since I've been playing online poker. Once I get BB set up in my current house I'll be giving poker a go as a viable second income. What are the odds I'll lose my bankroll the first night and be broke and out onthe street within the first week..

Knowing you, I'd say evens.

Boom Boom!

Lafortezza

henbane banned for being a knob-jockey.

ocallagh

I've been playing mostly STTs/MTTs over the last 24 months. For a while I was confident in giving up the day job, but I remember a bad spell about 7 months back which changed my mind. Bad beats turned into a serious lack of confidence and for 6 weeks I was losing big.. £50 STTs which I'd normally take down with ease, I was ****tin myself when it got down to 4(just to get in the money..) I had no MTT wins, and my live game was just as bad. As a poker player, going broke is always around the corner. Bad spells can last weeks, and in some cases months. Luckily I had a win in March which got the confidence back up. When I start to lose now, I take a break. Even if it's for a day or two. Just like a regular job, you need to treat yourself now and again. Take a few days off and forget about the bad beats! As a software developer, if I'm not in the mood, I won't do the best job and I'll mess up code here and there. The last thing you want to do as a poker player is sit down at a table in a bad mood and try and prove to yourself you can win.. In that state of mind you are your own worst enemy..

NickyOD

willis wrote:

nicky, what does "i needed to earn a bb/100 of .75 mean?is it big bets for every 100 hands or something?sorry if this is stupid,im just in the process of learning limit poker.
cheers

yes, that's right. Most decent players would expect to make about 1BB/100 at mid to higher stakes.