Question about bookies odds.

Pigman II

Are they based purely on where the money is going or do the bookies have inside info on the current voting tallies and are setting their odds accordingly?

I mean if all the punters were putting there cash on Eugene but nobody was actually voting for him wouldn't he still be 'the bookies favourite' even tho he hadn't a chance in hell of winning? Likewise isn't Craigs odds of 50/1 based on the amount of cash on him atm and not the votes cast for him thus far?

So whats the deal here?

billy the squid

the odds are based on the amount of cash being betted on each housemate. not on who is voting for them.

however, people who put money down on their favorite housemate at the bookies are likely to vote for them to win so that they can get their money back.

amacachi

billy the squid wrote:

the odds are based on the amount of cash being betted on each housemate. not on who is voting for them.

however, people who put money down on their favorite housemate at the bookies are likely to vote for them to win so that they can get their money back.

hence the prices will be cut further

Davey Devil

It's a see-saw. Ant re-claim favouritism after tonights showing. They have cut him back to 8-11 from evens and eased Eugene to evens from 4-6.

I don't watch the show but have a bet on Ant at 9/1 from week 1. Did anything happen tonight to justify the odds change?

Bookies have no access to the latest voting. As Billy says they adjust odds depending on money being bet on the selections.

However to cover their back I'd say they also moniter the nightly shows and adjust the odds based on whats happened so they don't get cought on the hop. For instance if Eugene and Ant started slagging the crap out of each other, punters would be jumping on Kinga and Makosi at big odds and they'd lose a packet. So it's not just the money being staked that effects the odds.

chump

Davey the bookies just follow the betfair market for this show.
So tis a good idea to watch betfair if you want to "keep your eye on the market". I had a bet myself on eugene (as everyone knows) with the bookies and yesterday laid a good chunk of it off on betfair. So (aslong as kinga doesnt win) I win You might consider doing the same, esp. if tis big money. It is a two horse race afterall...
Regarding how bookies work, yes it is to do with money coming in, but they also have their own risk assesors and can and do go bust and lose.

BaZmO*

The guy from Paddy Power was on BBBM giving a run down of who's where with regards to odds and he was trying to push everyone in the direction of Makosi at 20-1, a good price according to him.

RB jokingly asked him is that who his favourite was. And he said that he just needed to balance the books as all the money was on Anthony and Eugene.

So I'd say the overiding factor in setting the odds is how much people are laying down. However, I'd be very surprised if they didn't have some insider information.

B.