Euromillions Odds of winning jackpot!!!!

bullock

Can someone correct me if I'm wrong but are the odds for winning the Euromillions lotto got this way 50x49x48x47x46x9x8 =18306086400 = 18 billion to 1!!! on the back of the Euromillions tickets it says chances are 76 million to 1. Can someone clarify this for me.

bullock

Is this in the right forum?? Can anyone correct my calculations if I'm wrong.

steve_O_

http://www.euro-millions.com/prizes.htm

Dunners

Not sure if the calculations are completely correct, look OK to me but then again I add 2 and 2 together and end up with 12. Are the odds of winning on the back of the Euromillions tickets not related to just winning anything though as opposed to actually winning the jackpot? I'm sure they have some sort of get-out clause like that. Even with crappy odds like that I'll still have a crack though

bullock

steve_O_ wrote:

http://www.euro-millions.com/prizes.htm

That what I'm questioning steve ... where did the come up with the figure 76 million to 1 to win the jackpot.

aphex™

Your odds are in two parts.... 5 nums out of 50
......get a calc and do 50 (ncr) 5

Then you multiply this by the odds of 2 of the 9
....on a calc 9 (ncr) 2

=76,275,360 - 1 of winning the jackpot.

The 1 in 24 of winning any prize is pretty good odds.. got €31 last week

Pherekydes

I think the idea is to pick 5 numbers from 50, and to pick 2 from 9.

If this is true (I don't play Lotto), then the odds of the first are:

(50*49*48*47*46)/5! = 2118760 to 1

Odds for the second are:

9*8/2 = 36 to 1

As the two draws are independent events, the odds of winning the euromillions is:

2118760 * 36 = 76,275,360 to 1.

Edited to add: Blast! Aphex beat me to it! I have to type quicker.

bullock

Where did you get the 5! and 2! ..... I though the way it was is that you have 50 balls, you pick one meaning there are 49 left ... etc ..... I can't see why yoy divide by 5!??

ecksor

For any n objects there are n! ways to arrange them, but all of the arrangements are considered equivalent.

PatPete

Yes by not dividing by 5! you are actually calculating the odds of getting the sequence of numbers as they are actually drawn hence the huge number of 18Bn or so. As you know you need to choose only the numbers drawn and not the sequence in which they are drawn.

ShreddedHumans

If there are 76,275,360 combinations, and the prizes can be upwards of €115,000,000 and each line costs €1 (if i'm correct) if you got a huge syndicate together you could crack it..

tonyj

ShreddedHumans wrote:

If there are 76,275,360 combinations, and the prizes can be upwards of €115,000,000 and each line costs €1 (if i'm correct) if you got a huge syndicate together you could crack it..

As long as you don't mind sharing the prize money with someone from Limerick.

poppers

ShreddedHumans wrote:

If there are 76,275,360 combinations, and the prizes can be upwards of €115,000,000 and each line costs €1 (if i'm correct) if you got a huge syndicate together you could crack it..

think it costs two euro a line...

Hobbes

poppers wrote:

think it costs two euro a line...

The syndicates never make the profit on the winning prize anyway. They make it on all the sub prizes. Least as I recall from the Irish syndicate winning the Irish lotto. They said the grand prize was just a bonus.

walshb

bullock wrote: »

Where did you get the 5! and 2! ..... I though the way it was is that you have 50 balls, you pick one meaning there are 49 left ... etc ..... I can't see why yoy divide by 5!??

You do not divide by 5; you divide by 5 factorial, or 5! The exclamation mark means factorial. In other words, you divide by 120 (5*4*3*2*1).

So, it's 50*49*48*47*46 divided by 5*4*3*2*1

Drakares

There are now 50 balls and 11 "lucky stars" so would this be correct?

nCr normal x nCr stars
50C5 x 11C2
2,118,760 x 55 = 1,165,318,800 to 1

Pherekydes

Drakares wrote: »

There are now 50 balls and 11 "lucky stars" so would this be correct?

nCr normal x nCr stars
50C5 x 11C2
2,118,760 x 55 = 1,165,318,800 to 1

Yes, but your final figure has one zero too many!

Drakares

Pherekydes wrote: »

Yes, but your final figure has one zero too many!

Indeed it does! Thanks

A2LUE42

Hobbes wrote: »

The syndicates never make the profit on the winning prize anyway. They make it on all the sub prizes. Least as I recall from the Irish syndicate winning the Irish lotto. They said the grand prize was just a bonus.

What made that different was the guaranteed £100 for having 4 numbers for that draw.

im invisible

i dont do it that often, when did they increase the number of balls?

Yakuza

A2LUE42 wrote: »

What made that different was the guaranteed £100 for having 4 numbers for that draw.

IIRC, the jackpot in that draw was shared with two other parties. As they didn't get to cover all the possibilites (the Lottery company copped on and shut down the terminals they were entering their tickets on) they didn't make that much of a profit. If another party had had a claim on the jackpot, the syndicate members would have made a loss.

When playing the lotto (as an individual), you have to not only think of your chances of winning the grand prize, but the chances of sharing it as well. That's why I'll never pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 4,8,15,16,23,42 (the ones from Lost) as too many others will have chosen them and I'd only win a pittance. I remember about 5 years ago, 5 of the 6 Lost numbers came up and the match 5 prize (which is a fixed pool divided by the number of those who match 5) was less than (or close to) that of a match 4 as everyone and his mother was using the Lost numbers.

Edit : after a little digging, it would appear the Lost numbers have come up in other lotteries, with the "winners" only winning a pittance compared to what they would have if they'd won it outright.