Whats your cutoff?

jimbling

Do people generally have a cutoff if things aren't going so well. I mean if your suffering from a downswing, consisting of bad beats rather than bad cards... when do you give up.

My example.

I was playing the .25/.50 6 handed cash game the other morning. I was multitabling, but this one table was especially loose and aggressive. The guy to my left was a nut job. He was in 86% of flops (based on 440 hands) and his pre-flop raise was at 76%. Almost every raise was 6*BB. He also followed that up with a 6*BB almost every time as well, and generally kept calling or re-raising till the end.

So I played extremely tight, only playing good value hands, and still ended up droping two buy-ins to this guy. Both times I was hugely outdrawn. I was very tempted to leave, but couldn't... there had to be money to make here.

I stuck it out and eventually left the table with about 350, an excellent outcome by my standards. (by the way I only left the table in the end, cause crazy guy left after getting upset with the other players telling him how badly he was playing... muppets - I can never understand this)

But this got me thinking to what sort of limits people put themselves under. Do you have a cut-off? If your just not getting hands, and when you do you get outdrawn etc...

And if you do, what is it in relation to the buy-in and your bankroll.

And if its a longer than one session downswing, do you take a few days/weeks off or just play through it, and hope that your bankroll holds up?

Also in another post today, one guy made a comment of a downswing of 8 weeks... have people really gone through this? I can understand it in live tournaments etc.. but playing online cash games.. this would be by by bankroll.

jimbling

apologies... put this in the wrong forum... could you move it to the main poker forum. thanks

Rodge

My idea is that if I have dropped a buy in and played badly in doing so that I get up and turn off Party Poker for the night. I've learned that if I throw another buy in at it that I will more than likely lose that too as the head doesnt be thinking straight at all.

But if like your scenario where I was playing well and was outdrawn but knew that it was just a matter of time then there is no way I would get up.

Imposter

If i'm playing limit my cut-off is about 30 big bets unless I realise beforehand than i'm playing like a donkey.

For NL, it depends on the table. If I get outdrawn I generally rebuy but if I go into a few showdowns with the 2nd best hand (and I lose) then I usually get out. If you are going in as favourite and getting outdrawn you'd be mad to leave. The only exception to this is if you are going on-tilt. Then get out.

Speaking of tilt and getting over it, why is it on PPP/VC if you leave a table after losing a buy-in that you can't return (except for with 1/10th max stack)? That is so annoying.

Samba

Imposter wrote:

Speaking of tilt and getting over it, why is it on PPP/VC if you leave a table after losing a buy-in that you can't return (except for with 1/10th max stack)? That is so annoying.

er, did you try clickin on the dollar button on the top left hand corner?

Imposter

Samba wrote:

er, did you try clickin on the dollar button on the top left hand corner?

No never though tof that, but i shouldn't have to. I had left the table and then I tried to rejoin but it would only let me bring 10$ to the table. I wasn't sitting down with 10$. May try that next time though (although I don't plan on being outdrawn any time soon ).

ZZR1100

jimbling wrote:

Also in another post today, one guy made a comment of a downswing of 8 weeks... have people really gone through this? I can understand it in live tournaments etc.. but playing online cash games.. this would be by by bankroll.

People have. Both offline and live. cash and STTs.Just think of your normal downswing and imagine that it just keeps going. Probably 30% of it is due to frustration and lack of confidence when it continues but be prepared for it because it hits every1 ( Doyle Brunson had an 8 week run around the time of the 5 diamond at the bellagio this year. he said it was the worst he had in years but because the games are so "good" around this time that he couldn't take a break).More worrying is what Donnacha O'Dea said on the poker show. He said that 90% of Internet players who are making money now will go broke within 3 years and the other panellists agreed.

jimbling

ZZR1100 wrote:

He said that 90% of Internet players who are making money now will go broke within 3 years and the other panellists agreed.

Hmmm... thats an interesting one. What are the reasons for this belief??

Trampas

If there is fishys at your table you must keep casting in.

You will catch them if you wait long enough even if running out of bait.

Also if you drop below the max buy in you must keep topping up as when you get them you want to be able to catch them for the max possible.

No use dropping half your stack against a fish and then doubling up only bringing you back to evens when you would have been up 50% - rake.

I hate people who slag off bad players to as these people should say nothing and take there money.

Always and always but fishys into your buddy list

ZZR1100

jimbling wrote:

Hmmm... thats an interesting one. What are the reasons for this belief??

.

he didnt say but i have heard before that only the top 10% make money in poker long term.
the pokershow can be viewed on cardplayer.com

Waylander

I have heard that statistic several times before but I would be sceptical about its accuracy.

jimbling

well i can't view it right now.. im at work.. so will have to have a look later.

I fully understand the '10% make money in the long run' theory, but if you are currently making a steady profit (and I mean serious profit... not my type of profit...lol) then aren't you already in the 10% bracket....

or is there a intermediate bracket where some people (generally online) manage to make a steady profit, but then suffer a downswing that never ends... ie they forget how to play the game.

Otherwise I dont really get it, because the fish are always going to be there.... well as long as this poker craze continues... and looks like it will for a while yet.

okay, you may not be able to play and beat the big guns, but a serious player can make a living just playing tables like the .50/1 etc...

I am basing all this on articles and posts... I dont have the experience to really know much about this yet....

jimbling

Waylander wrote:

I have heard that statistic several times before but I would be sceptical about its accuracy.

I agree... how do they know, and what are they basing it on. It has been around for donkeys years, and as far as I can tell its based on the live game where it would probably stand up.

but now online there are lots of people on the smaller profit scale. Someone sticks to a limit and can make a steady profit etc.....

Imposter

Do you think it should be more of less?

Most lower limit players lose their money at higher levels. Not many have the discipline to play at the correct level and take their time about moving up. That's assuming you think that maybe 20-20% are winning players.

I would assume the comment from Donnacha O' Dea was based on the fact that there mightn't be quite as many fish coming to the game and combined with a drop-off of the current fish could mean that winning players start picking off each other while also becoming harder and harder to move up the limits.

jimbling

Imposter wrote:

Do you think it should be more of less?

ya, I would have thought it would be more than 10%, but then again.. with so many people playing i guess it could be right.

But if you discount all the people who don't really try and make money, ie the guys who play for pure enjoyment with money to burn.... then Im sure its higher than 10%

Out of all the players that actually spend some time trying to learn the game, getting help from books articles... posts etc... then I would say it is much much higher.

I realise that this is not what they are basing the 10% on...
anyhow it was the comment
'90% of people who make money now will be broke in 3 years'
that I was questioning....

Imposter wrote:

I would assume the comment from Donnacha O' Dea was based on the fact that there mightn't be quite as many fish coming to the game and combined with a drop-off of the current fish could mean that winning players start picking off each other while also becoming harder and harder to move up the limits.

Yes, this is probably what he meant alright.... and it is no doubt true to a certain extent.... but I would think the figure of 90% is probably over doing it.

Anyhow... I was looking at it the wrong way, and I take the point now.....

Waylander

I think it is low. I have no scientific basis for this asserrtion, but I do believe that this is an old figure form before the advent of internet poker, and forums like 2+2 and even boards, which players can learn alot from. I would not try to put an estimate on what percentage are now winning players, but I would guess it would be considerably more then 10%.

ZZR1100

Imposter wrote:

I would assume the comment from Donnacha O' Dea was based on the fact that there mightn't be quite as many fish coming to the game and combined with a drop-off of the current fish could mean that winning players start picking off each other while also becoming harder and harder to move up the limits.

I think this is a fair point. I used to play mostly 2/4 and 3/6 NL and an odd 5/10NL but the games have tightend up too much in the last 8 to 10 months.
Now im down to the .50/1 and 1/2NL and finding those begining to tighten up.
Avarage VPIP 18% .the few fish are swallowed up very quickly as they are up against 80% tight players so all things being equal when the standard of players level up the only winner will be the rake.

jimbling

ZZR1100 wrote:

I think this is a fair point. I used to play mostly 2/4 and 3/6 NL and an odd 5/10NL but the games have tightend up too much in the last 8 to 10 months.
Now im down to the .50/1 and 1/2NL and finding those begining to tighten up.
Avarage VPIP 18% .the few fish are swallowed up very quickly as they are up against 80% tight players so all things being equal when the standard of players level up the only winner will be the rake.

hmmmm... that is a worrying thing... i didn't realise it was already on the downslope. I actually thought that it was still on the rise. Maybe hit peak next year then start the downslope.

Im coming into the game too late eh.....