Calling all in with King high

Hectorjelly

1st hand of $50 stt. I limp utg with KQs. Theres a few limpers and the button makes it 200. The small blinds calls. I check my notes and the button is a loose fish - so I call. No notes on the SB.

The flop is T J 2 rainbow. The small blind bets 200 which I call. The button then goes all in. The small blind calls. Call or Fold?

Tackle

Well he could have Ax/pp/suited cards(meaning he could have ptb) if he's a loose fish, and you don't really have anything yourself, other than a 2-1 draw. Unless you think your overcards are good, which I wouldn't like to risk my entire stack on at this stage of the game.

Definite fold for me.

mewso

Yes but this is an HJ post so obviously the right move is not the obvious one. I'm not going to do the calculations but I'm sure HJ will be back with the reasons for calling.

Tackle

I expect he called alright, and I'm interested to hear the reasoning behind it.

ocallagh

call... i like to gamble! 2 o/cs, and ur str8 draw.. one or 2 of ur outs are dead if the other two are holding ax but it is the first hand of an stt, you are (more or less) getting ur odds and you have invested no time

mewso

Well you're getting the odds to call with 2 all-ins plus the 400 you have already put in. If the starting stack is 2000 then there is 4400 in the pot and you have to call your last 1600. Thats almost 3-1 for a chance to have 6000 odd in chips. I wouldn't call because in an STT it's not about winning it's about finishing in the money.

ocallagh

actually - one reason why you might fold... crazy loose guy is gonna have a load of chips which you can easily take off him.. but i still call!

padraig_f

You don't say what the starting stack is which affects your pot odds somewhat. I assume $1500, so you're getting over 3/1 on your money when you're probably better than 2/1 to win the hand (better than 2/1 if either of your K or Q outs are good, worse if you're up against a set, on average I'd say you're better than 2/1). I call.

Tackle

It's very likely one of them has a pair/paired something, and one/or both is very likely to have an ace, removing 1 or 2 of your outs for the straight draw. I'd say you'd be doing well do be even 2-1 here.

Edit:Just reread the OP and you probably are gettting more than 2-1.

You might have the odds to call, but this isn't a cash game so I don't like the idea of using pot odds for your whole stack at the beginning of a STT. If you make this call at the start of every STT you played you'll go bust (at least) 66% of the time. So, I think it's a very bad call in the long run.

Hectorjelly

There are a number of ways to look at this, if you work out the $equity of calling its pretty neutral. If you call and win you have an Equity of $62, if you fold its $21. Assuming you are better than 2:1 against, and I agree with Padraigs reasoning, then calling gives you an average equity of $20.67. (1/3 of $62). 37c is insignificent in the grand scheme of things.

However obtaining a 6k stack in level 1 has huge advantages, it pretty much means you can dictate the pace of the game from then on. Its very hard to go broke, and you can use other peoples fears of going broke to accumulate chips. I would be very surprised if I didnt turn a 6k stack into a top 2 place. So I think the true value of a 6stack is higher than $62, and so worth a call.

Hectorjelly

I really really dont like the practice of removing outs based on what your opponents might or might not have. When working out the odds of hitting your straight you take into account all the cards you cant see, ie 52 - 5, 47. If you start removing aces that your opponent might or might not hold, then you will undoubtadly fail to account for the fact that the odds already assume that your opponents hold 1/6.5 of an ace each. (They have two cards each of which has a 1/13 chance of being an ace.)

So if you remove an ace from your outs then you should really change the chance of you hitting your straight from 8/47 to 7/(47-the cards that you are pretending to see). The fact that this would be nigh on impossible, and that you are probably wrong anyway means that its a silly practice IMO.

Tackle

So what was the outcome of the hand?

Hectorjelly

Tackle wrote:

So what was the outcome of the hand?

Called, hit a straight, won the tournament and got the girl.

Tackle

Here's the tagline for the movie.

"They thought he wouldn't call. They were wrong"

impr0v

Hectorjelly wrote:

Called, hit a straight, won the tournament and got the girl.

What did he have, as a matter of interest?

Hectorjelly

impr0v wrote:

What did he have, as a matter of interest?

AJ for the button and QQ for the SB. So a king would of won it for me.