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STT hand

  • 25-06-2005 5:00am
    #1
    Hectorjelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭


    Playing a stt and its 4 handed. The villain of the piece is quite tight, not a great player by any means but by $50 stt standars hes good. My note on him says he hardly ever bluffs. He is the big blind in this hand. Blinds are 150 300.

    The button limps in (this doesnt mean anything). I complete the sb with 56o. The flop is 7h 2d 8h giving me a straight draw. The flop is checked around. Turn is the 6s. I bet 800 and the BB calls. River is another 8. I check and the BB bets out 1600. If I call this I will have about 1k left. Whats my move?


Comments

  • #2
    Tackle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 275 ✭✭Tackle


    I'd definately fold here. Your sixes aren't going to beat much here unless he's bluffing which is unlikely as your note says.


  • #3
    ionapaul
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,307 ✭✭✭ionapaul


    I would guess his bet represents a straight or trip 8s. Whatever he has or hasn't got, I would fold here.


  • #4
    Hitman Actual
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    I find this one pretty tough (but then I'm crap at these marginal situations anyway). When you say the player is good by $50 STT standards, do you mean he will play well on the bubble? His bet of 1600 could mean a few things:

    1. Value bet.
    2. He's bluffing, and the chance he's bluffing increases because it's a bubble situation (he thinks it's probable you'll fold).
    3. He's betting a two... least likely scenario, I'd say.

    If you call, then you have to win more than 28% of the time for it to be +CEV move. So if you think the chances of scenarios 2 and 3 above are better than 28%, it's a call. And I'd say it's pretty close, because it's a bubble situation. (I dont think pushing has any value as you will only be called when you're beaten... he has to call your 1000 with a 7 or better).

    I'm looking at this purely from a CEV viewpoint. The fact that you're one off the money may change things.


  • #5
    Hectorjelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    I called after some deliberation, he had 52. Im not sure why but I was fairly certain I had him beat. I checked with the intention of calling a bet, but his biggish bet threw me off a bit.


  • #6
    Lafortezza
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,806 ✭✭✭Lafortezza


    If I was him I would have seen your turn pot bet as a steal after the flop was checked around. He calls, and you check the turn, which could indicate you'd given up on your 'bluff'. His bet on the river was quite decent, enough to make you definitely think about dropping a better hand than his.
    Good call on the end though.


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