predictions

solas

I was thinking about some things earlier and I was wondering, as so many people here have some developed esp abilities, would anyone like to put down on paper any insights that they may have.
While its difficult to be very specific, it would be interesting if we could focus on the year ahead and see how it goes month by month.

anyone want a go?
<edit>
for example
who wil be the munster hurling champions this year?

apologies for the editing

nesf

Eh.

Honestly, predictions on anything that you know something about would be educated guesses rather than examples of esp. Someone having a premonition over something that they know little or nothing about would be more interesting to me.

For instance, I could tell you that the dollar is going to gain ground against the Yen in the next 6 months.

Is that a preminition or an educated guess?

You decide.

I have been called psychic by psychic's and new age types in the past though. Personally I just think I'm a little more aware of reality and life than most people and that I have good intuition because of this. Matter of perception really.

solas

ah I dunno..what if I said that there would be an earthquake in Holland in two days time.?
let the people decide..and even if it is just an educated guess, I'm curious as to how educated peoples guesses are.
It could be more specific like, a member of the royal family dying (as in the case of princess diana)..it doesn't have to be politically or environmentally orientated.

nesf wrote:

For instance, I could tell you that the dollar is going to gain ground against the Yen in the next 6 months.

Is that a preminition or an educated guess?

a bit of both I imagine, but if esp is valid than it would only be logical that your perceptions would be significant to those things which concern you.

anyway..just thought I would put it out there for others if they wanted to participate. All in the best interests of all concerned.

Kernel

nesf wrote:

For instance, I could tell you that the dollar is going to gain ground against the Yen in the next 6 months.

Nesf give us some good stock to buy up, I need the money!

My prediction for the Munster Hurling would be Cork.

My prediction for the champions league is Liverpool.

My prediction for a disaster is August 12th.

There ya go!

solas

w00t

LegacyUser

Barcelona for the European Cup next year.

ISAW

Kernel wrote:

Nesf give us some good stock to buy up, I need the money!

My prediction for the Munster Hurling would be Cork.

My prediction for the champions league is Liverpool.

My prediction for a disaster is August 12th.

There ya go!

If you mean next years champions league then I would be surprised!

August 12th is the peak of the Perseid meteor shower. Could you be more specific. a natural or man made disaster. From space? From earth? what is a disaster anyway? Liverpool losing?

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

If you mean next years champions league then I would be surprised!

August 12th is the peak of the Perseid meteor shower. Could you be more specific. a natural or man made disaster. From space? From earth? what is a disaster anyway? Liverpool losing?

No, the prediction is for this year's champions league.

The fog of time is hard to pierce with my untrained psychic ability. I can see a disaster on August 12th of larger than normal proportions. That is all I can see.......

ISAW

Kernel wrote:

No, the prediction is for this year's champions league.

The fog of time is hard to pierce with my untrained psychic ability. I can see a disaster on August 12th of larger than normal proportions. That is all I can see.......

I will take you up on Liverpool. If my prediction they will not win is correct then do you think I am psychic and you are not?

What is a "normal" disaster? Why is it harder to "see" something in August? Does that mean someting between now and August is easier? Try next week then. Say 20th May. Can you "see" anything for me looming? How about the newspaper headlines for 20th May?

How do you "see" things anyway? If you do not actually "see" a disaster and I assume you dont since people can distinguish between "seeing" say, a hurricane, a plane crash and a stock market crash, then what is it that you feel hear sense etc.?

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

I will take you up on Liverpool. If my prediction they will not win is correct then do you think I am psychic and you are not?

What is a "normal" disaster? Why is it harder to "see" something in August? Does that mean someting between now and August is easier? Try next week then. Say 20th May. Can you "see" anything for me looming? How about the newspaper headlines for 20th May?

How do you "see" things anyway? If you do not actually "see" a disaster and I assume you dont since people can distinguish between "seeing" say, a hurricane, a plane crash and a stock market crash, then what is it that you feel hear sense etc.?

Well, I can sense fluctuations and disturbances in the force. So, for example, I sense a disturbance in the force for August 12th, which seems to point at a disaster. As for Liverpool, the force has been with them this year, and the force shows success for them. Whether that will mean winning the Champions League, or another success I'm not sure of, but I think it means they will win.

May the force be with you ISAW.

stevenmu

Ok, this'll probably sound a little crazy (it does to me anyway), but for the last few years I've had this feeling that there's something really really big going to happen that'll bring about a drastic change in society. I'm thinking something along the lines of another world war. I've felt this would happen relativly soon, initially I had 2012/2013 in mind, and I've since learnt that there are many other predictions involving that time period. Also many people who claim to be able to see the future accurately say they can't see past this time period or what happens during it.

Anyway the feeling had kind of gone away the last year or so, and I hadn't given it much thought, when last night it came back but this time it seemed much closer, maybe 2007/2008 with something happening later this year to preface it. I'm thinking perhaps another big terrorist attack, or more a likely a wave of them in America around september or october, which would cause America to later invade Iran.

The specifics above are really just based on the current global situation, it's the feeling that 'something' is going to happen which is my prediction, hopefully I'll be proved wrong.

Goodshape

I'm with stevenmu in that I feel the next decade or so will bring about major social and political change. It may take a large scale war to get started but I think the eventual outcome will be positive.

The worlds a messed up place and it's becoming increasingly difficult to just look the other way and pretend everythings A-OK. It won't be long before we're forced to answer some really serious questions - the answers to which we can barely fathom in our current state of mind.

Not sure what I can base this on; just a feeling I have that seems to be shared by many an individual (speaking politics with a random stranger in the pub last night for instance, without prompting from me he expressed similar ideas. Happens all the time).

stevenmu

Yeah, I'd agree that the way society is going is pretty unsustainable (*must resist social commentary rant* ). I think it will all work out well, but it'll get worse before it gets better.

stevenmu

Also, for those who remember John Titors predictions, the current ID card legislation being passed in the US is getting quite a few peoples backs up :eek:

solas

I don't recall ..want to elaborate re John Titor and the reference to ID cards?

goodsshape wrote:

I'm with stevenmu in that I feel the next decade or so will bring about major social and political change. It may take a large scale war to get started but I think the eventual outcome will be positive.

yea..this seems to be general consensus. While "social and political change" is inevitable..and occuring as we speak, I think twe've all grown up with the threat of a world war (ww3) that would bring about significant changes. I'm quite apethetic about the whole thing tho.

stevenmu

solas wrote:

I don't recall ..want to elaborate re John Titor and the reference to ID cards?

I don't think there was a specific reference to ID cards, but John Titors general claim was that there'd be a civil war in the US brought about by an oppresive government infringing civil liberties. Many people seem to be hugely opposed to current ID card legislation and see it as a huge violation of their civil rights. And this is in addition to other laws which have seen a lot of condemnation such as the Patriot Act, and *that* law requiring people on internal flights to have a passport, but which noone is allowed name or discuss and even the courts can't be told what it is (it's also completly unconstitutional).

ISAW

Kernel wrote:

snip...
I sense a disturbance in the force for August 12th, which seems to point at a disaster. As for Liverpool, the force has been with them this year, and the force shows success for them. Whether that will mean winning the Champions League, or another success I'm not sure of, but I think it means they will win.

May the force be with you ISAW.

But as i asked you what is "a disaster"?

I do however note that you have made a prediction. you have predicted Liverpool will win the Champions league. It isnt a very great prediction since the bookies will give you a little better than even money but it is a prediction nevertheless. You probably have close to half a chance of being right. then again you might also be wrong.

So I ask again. I I am right and you are wrong do you believe that makes me psychic and will you drop your claims to such an ability if you are wrong.

As to your comment that the force be with me that seems leke hedging i.e. if you are wrong you can claim you supported my alternate prediction.

Maybe this discussion is better dealt with on the jedi discussion board?

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

But as i asked you what is "a disaster"?

I do however note that you have made a prediction. you have predicted Liverpool will win the Champions league. It isnt a very great prediction since the bookies will give you a little better than even money but it is a prediction nevertheless. You probably have close to half a chance of being right. then again you might also be wrong.

So I ask again. I I am right and you are wrong do you believe that makes me psychic and will you drop your claims to such an ability if you are wrong.

As to your comment that the force be with me that seems leke hedging i.e. if you are wrong you can claim you supported my alternate prediction.

Maybe this discussion is better dealt with on the jedi discussion board?

A disaster is a very bad thing, and one will happen, unfortunately.

I did support your alternate prediction, but the force will decide all things in the end.


Let's just see what happens in time.

ISAW

stevenmu wrote:

I'm thinking something along the lines of another world war.

How do you define a world war? Is it the amount of countries involved; the geographical spread of the participants; the number of troop; UN approval? Based on your criteria how is the present Iraq situation not a worlw war?

I've felt this would happen relativly soon, initially I had 2012/2013 in mind, and I've since learnt that there are many other predictions involving that time period.

How many? As opposed to what? I mean how many are there of the 2007/2008 time period and how much less than the 2012/2013 period are there?
I suggest you make a ist of such perdictions before it happens and then afterwards you can then determine which were correct. I would be very surprised if anyone anywhere did better than chance but I wouldn't rule out an ability to predict whether psychic or not. Such abilities if they exist are very rare since I have not seen any convincing evidence of them. But anyone on boards.ie having such an ability I would be very very very surprised to witness.

I really want to witness such an event. thats why I ask in advance to agree what would be an extraordinary event and to predict it. Predicting the Winning of the champions league isnt really extraordinary when there are only two teams left.

Also many people who claim to be able to see the future accurately say they can't see past this time period or what happens during it.

This may or may not be true. I may well be your experience or your belief that prompts you to claim that there are not many predictions for the period after 2013 but how do you know this is true? How would we measure what a prediction is and how many were made. Remember if the claim is not made in advance it isn't really a prediction at all is it?

Anyway the feeling had kind of gone away the last year or so, and I hadn't given it much thought, when last night it came back but this time it seemed much closer, maybe 2007/2008 with something happening later this year to preface it. I'm thinking perhaps another big terrorist attack, or more a likely a wave of them in America around september or october, which would cause America to later invade Iran.

But are you predicting a terrorist attack in 2007-2008 or are you not predicting one? could you be more specific? A terrorist attack by an international terrorist group in a 730 day span is quite likely I would think since there has been one in every 730 day span over the last decade. When later this year (2005) do you predict something happening. More precisely what month, what date, and where on Earth? What type of attack (hijacking, kidnap, bombing, military attack etc.)?

The specifics above are really just based on the current global situation, it's the feeling that 'something' is going to happen which is my prediction, hopefully I'll be proved wrong.

What sort of "something"? And if it is based on current geo politics it isn't a psychic prediction is it since then it is based on reasoned argument and analysis?

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

How do you define a world war? Is it the amount of countries involved; the geographical spread of the participants; the number of troop; UN approval? Based on your criteria how is the present Iraq situation not a worlw war?

It's not a world war because only Iraq declared war on US (and Britain? dunno), and the Iraqi invasion and occupation succeeded in usurping the government and replacing it with a puppet pro-US government. There is no war there anymore at all. Only occupation and terrorist resistance.

For it to become a world war, more than 1 country would have needed to declare war on the US and Britain.

Here ya go ISAW: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War

stevenmu

ISAW wrote:

How do you define a world war? Is it the amount of countries involved; the geographical spread of the participants; the number of troop; UN approval? Based on your criteria how is the present Iraq situation not a worlw war?

I suppose the easy way to define it is whether or not people refer to it as a world war afterwards or not I suppose really a war that is spread across a large area of the globe and affects in some way the majority of the global population. I know that's a bit vague but to contrast with the Iraq situation, that's localised specifically to Iraq and only really affects people within Iraq (and the relatives of those who've travelled there).

ISAW wrote:

How many? As opposed to what? I mean how many are there of the 2007/2008 time period and how much less than the 2012/2013 period are there?
I suggest you make a ist of such perdictions before it happens and then afterwards you can then determine which were correct.

I'm going to have to come with some kind of database cross-referincing everything I read to answer these kind of questions (actually that could be pretty usefull). I'll try and come up with some kind of list later on.

ISAW wrote:

Predicting the Winning of the champions league isnt really extraordinary when there are only two teams left.

I agree with this completly, I think anyone predicting the result of this will be influenced by either knowledge of the teams or by an emotional attachment to one of them.

ISAW wrote:

But are you predicting a terrorist attack in 2007-2008 or are you not predicting one? could you be more specific? A terrorist attack by an international terrorist group in a 730 day span is quite likely I would think since there has been one in every 730 day span over the last decade. When later this year (2005) do you predict something happening. More precisely what month, what date, and where on Earth? What type of attack (hijacking, kidnap, bombing, military attack etc.)?

I'm predicting one this year, probably late september, early october. I'm not sure what type exactly but something 'original' and exceeding 911 in scale, probably two or three events of this magnitude in the US itself and possibly other smaller standard events (car/suicide bombs etc) aimed at US interests overseas around the same time.

ISAW wrote:

What sort of "something"? And if it is based on current geo politics it isn't a psychic prediction is it since then it is based on reasoned argument and analysis?

I suppose, ultimately, the downfall of modern society/civilisation to begin sometime in 2007/2008. That's the only part of the prediction(s) I'd claim to have any kind of psychic origin. The rest is supposition as to the form it will take based on current geo politics. I can see the US being bogged down in the middle east for years to come and a conflict between North (possibly Chinese backed) and South Korea stretching the US military thin. I can see China taking advantage of this and invading Taiwan and possibly trying to grab some of Siberia aswell. Either way the Russians won't like the sight of China taking any military action and will line up their military on the border leading to an open conflict. Several Muslim nations will more than likely invade Israel at this stage giving the US more to deal with than it's capable of, despite some help from British and Australian forces. As China launches attacks on the US mainland, the rest of the EU will be forced to decide between helping the US out and sitting back and watching it be destroyed. There'll probably be a brief tactical* nuclear war, soon after which every government involved will be overthrown, leading to the end of all major hostilities.

Maybe I've just been reading too many Tom Clancy books

edit: I presume this would count as a world war ?

*tactical as in small numbers of low yield warheads aimed a destroying military capacity as opposed to high yield warheads aimed at population centres.

LostinBlanch

ISAW wrote:

But as i asked you what is "a disaster"?

I do however note that you have made a prediction. you have predicted Liverpool will win the Champions league.

speaking as a United fan Liverpool winning would be a disaster! :eek:

Kernel

LostinBlanch wrote:

speaking as a United fan Liverpool winning would be a disaster! :eek:

haha.. that's true, I'm a United fan myself, I don't make the future though, I only predict it. I will try to use my psychic powers on the night to make them lose.

ISAW

stevenmu wrote:

I suppose the easy way to define it is whether or not people refer to it as a world war afterwards or not

In which case it is post fitting the data so it isn't a prediction then is it?

I suppose really a war that is spread across a large area of the globe and affects in some way the majority of the global population. I know that's a bit vague but to contrast with the Iraq situation, that's localised specifically to Iraq and only really affects people within Iraq (and the relatives of those who've travelled there).

It affects all of Arabia dircetly. Kurdistan for example is not recognised and goes into Turkey, Iraq Iran. Indeed Usbec people fled into Kurdistan last week. It also affects Saudi Arabia. It is the largest mobilisation of troops in history. But I will again ask for clarification.

What is a large area of the globe? What is a "affect" a population? Will having an "affect" on three billion people suffice?

I agree with this completly, I think anyone predicting the result of this will be influenced by either knowledge of the teams or by an emotional attachment to one of them.

I am very happy you are since if we use vague language then anything can be post fit. Look at Nostradamus. Nobody predicts anything in advance and then AFTER an event they all claim he meant 9/11 or an earthquake. But nobody tells us about that BEFORE the event. So it isnt a prediction is it?

I'm predicting one this year, probably late september, early october. I'm not sure what type exactly but something 'original' and exceeding 911 in scale, probably two or three events of this magnitude in the US itself and possibly other smaller standard events (car/suicide bombs etc) aimed at US interests overseas around the same time.

the is great! It is being more specific. so I take you to mean that you predice that between midnight 21 Sept GMT and Midnight 7 October GMT two or three attacks involving billions of dollars damage or thousands of lives will take place in the US or in US military or government establishments or Corporations elsewhere. Now the chances of that I do not know but at least it is a prediction. maybe you could add a sticky thread to the forum on predictions and the list be edited from time to time. the date the prediction was made on and the person whgo made it should be included.

so the list would begin

Prediction 1 Stephenmu made on 20 May 2005 that two or possible three attempts at 9/11 style terrorist attacks involving an attempt to do as much damage as 9/11 against US military/government/corporations abroad or in the US will happen between 2400 GMT on Sept 21 2005 and 2400 Oct 7 2005.

It is very important to include ALL predictions made by a person so that the person does not make a hundred ignore the misses and highlight the hits. But even a few out of a hundred that would satisfy the above would really surprise me.

The rest is supposition as to the form it will take based on current geo politics.

I agree this would not be psychic, but it would be extremely interesting if anyone had that ability. It would also be worth BILLIONS and anyone with it could easily make billions.

sephirosis

for some reason this year strikes a chord in my head. its something i have read somewhere. 2012 is extremely important to some group but i cant quite remember which, be it the church, a hermetic society, or something else. has anyone else read anything about this year??

Stark

Actually it's the date most widely agreed on as the end of the world by a wide variety of people.

ISAW

Stark wrote:

Actually it's the date most widely agreed on as the end of the world by a wide variety of people.

I predict the world will not end in 2012!

If I am wrong will you then accept I can predict the future?

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

I predict the world will not end in 2012!

If I am wrong will you then accept I can predict the future?

Err no, if you are wrong then that means you're pretty useless at predicting the future, doesn't it? :rolleyes:

ISAW

Kernel wrote:

Err no, if you are wrong then that means you're pretty useless at predicting the future, doesn't it? :rolleyes:

Logically it does follow but I was trying to be ironic. You see if I was wrong the world would end so what it the point of anyone being to be able to say my prediction it would not end was right?

Secondly I was trying to hint at the philosophy of End Times cults. These have been around for Millennia. There was a bit of an upsurge with the year 2000. But the think is that NONE of them could be correct since the world is still here. But rather than admit tey were silly fools people prefer to believe in the leaders that got it wrong. Indeed they sometimes then rewrite what they stated or bury it or say that it was only the faith of believers that averted the end of the world.

Strange isnt it how a "religion" which continually prophesises and gets the predictions wrong can hold on to members or recruit new ones so that they are back up to the level of adherents before the wrong prediction?

I think Leo Fessinger also looked into this area but it is some years sionce I looked it up.

muppetkiller

Actually i'm a bit freaked after all this 2012 talk ..
I only passed by this board today as i'm bored with the shop section ..
I had the most bizarre dream last night
I dreamt that the world was dying like we had had a nuclear war or something i was in my 50's and children were asking me what had happened..
And i told them of a really big disaster in the year 2009 when a meter or something hit northern brazil /south america area wiping out nearly the entire rainforest area there ...
the debris an smoke blocked out the sun and killed most of the plant life left on the earth ...and by 2012 there were very few people left ...
but as i'm in my late 20's that would mean that the world doesn't end in 2012 just our idea of the way the world is maybe fades away
strange eh... it was so detailed..
I'm not a psychic but i am an alcoholic lol

hawkmoon269

stevenmu wrote:

Also, for those who remember John Titors predictions, the current ID card legislation being passed in the US is getting quite a few peoples backs up :eek:

Seemingly this "John Titor" was a guy who posted in Time Travel forums in 2000/early 2001 claiming to be a time traveller from the future. Among his predictions were that Y2K computer malfunctions would have a serious impact, and that Civil War would break out in the US in 2004/2005. Well, 5 months into 2005 and no sign of a US Civil War just yet.

I'm in the sceptics' camp with Isaaw.

toiletduck

hawkmoon269 wrote:

Seemingly this "John Titor" was a guy who posted in Time Travel forums in 2000/early 2001 claiming to be a time traveller from the future. Among his predictions were that Y2K computer malfunctions would have a serious impact, and that Civil War would break out in the US in 2004/2005. Well, 5 months into 2005 and no sign of a US Civil War just yet.

I'm in the sceptics' camp with Isaaw.

those events didnt happen because he warned people about them

im firmly set tin the sceptic's camp aswell

ISAW

toiletduck wrote:

those events didnt happen because he warned people about them

this is a version of the Nostradamus line:

If the prediction did not come true then it is because Nostradamus showed it to be possible and by doing that we avoided making the mistake.

I think I have a big problem with this. First, there are ways of measuring this. Make a prediction but only make it known to a few people say telling me (in sceret) for instance something about next week. Then if it doesen't happen you can be certain it was not because people knew about it since I didn't tell them. Of course you can always say I was lying and i told so you could seal the prediction and post it to a judge or Peace comissioner for example.

There is a clever way of manupaliting this procedure and it relys on Type 1 and Type II errors (US terminology) or "false negatives" and "false positives" . Basically it involves counting the hits and ignoring the misses so it is important that the predictor makes people aware of every prediction that they make and not keep all the wrong ones secret. Now there are also ways of determining what are the chances of getting a prediction correct. Usually "psychics" avoid making predictions that are exactly determined by probability for example three of next weeks lotto numbers. Whenever I have seen someone try this they failed to do better than chance. I would love to witness someone be able to do this, indeed I would go out of my way to know such a person.

But ask yourself this if some exists who can predict even three of next weeks lotto numbers in advance how are the bookies still in business?

Anyway back to my original point. It is logically inconsistant to suggest that the fact that a prediction did not come true is proof that it was correct!

toiletduck

ISAW, i wasnt serious! i was just repeating a response i got when talking about some of the Nostradamus predictions that didnt come pan out with a friend of mine (she had just read a book about him). i agree with what you said completely

stevenmu

ISAW wrote:

In which case it is post fitting the data so it isn't a prediction then is it?

Well I'm predicting that afterwards it will be referred to as a world war, in a way that is post fitting but I don't see how you can measure the accuracy of any prediction untill after the event takes place

Unfortunatly predicting the future isn't an exact science and may not always produce exacting empirical results. In the case of Solas' friend who drew a scene from the aftermath of the tsunami, that scene was probably all the information he/she had. Without further detailed information such as what casued the scene and when and where it would happen, it's hard to proveide a verifiable prediction but that doesn't mean that it wasn't in fact a valid prediction.

Kernel

As I've often asked before; what makes people think time flows forward? If time doesn't flow forwards, then that can explain precognition and future prediction.

SkepticOne

ISAW wrote:

It would also be worth BILLIONS and anyone with it could easily make billions.

But wouldn't the elves take away your powers if you tried to use them for vulgar monitary gain?

ISAW

stevenmu wrote:

Well I'm predicting that afterwards it will be referred to as a world war, in a way that is post fitting but I don't see how you can measure the accuracy of any prediction untill after the event takes place

I am not suggesting one can. I am suggesting that one can agree in advance what would constitute accuracy and what would constitute a miss. But mathematics can predict things and also suggest the probability of something happening by chance. For example I can tell you the chances of getting a certain number of heads if you flip a coin a certain number of times. I can also tell you the probability that you don't get exactly that number ofg heads but almost get that. So if i say flip 100 couns and the probably is that the flips will be between 48 and 52 heads and you predict between 6 and 10 heads and actually get somewhere in there then i would be really impressed.

Unfortunatly predicting the future isn't an exact science and may not always produce exacting empirical results.

I just answered this pronlem above. One can show what is the chance of getting near the prediction.

In the case of Solas' friend who drew a scene from the aftermath of the tsunami, that scene was probably all the information he/she had. Without further detailed information such as what casued the scene and when and where it would happen, it's hard to proveide a verifiable prediction but that doesn't mean that it wasn't in fact a valid prediction.

Actually I would argue that it does mean the prediction was not valid since nobody else could know what they were taking about in advance of the event.

Put it this way. Say I claim there is a fire breathing dragon in my garage. You ask to see it. But I say it is invisible. Nor can it be weightd since it flies. You cant detect heat since it has a magic heat shield. Every time you listen It can hold its breath for days if necessary. It is non corporial so you cant throw anything at it or it goes right through. Now, what is the difference between no evidence for the dragon and just no dragon at all?

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

Put it this way. Say I claim there is a fire breathing dragon in my garage. You ask to see it. But I say it is invisible. Nor can it be weightd since it flies. You cant detect heat since it has a magic heat shield. Every time you listen It can hold its breath for days if necessary. It is non corporial so you cant throw anything at it or it goes right through. Now, what is the difference between no evidence for the dragon and just no dragon at all?

There is no spoon.

stevenmu

ISAW wrote:

Put it this way. Say I claim there is a fire breathing dragon in my garage. You ask to see it. But I say it is invisible. Nor can it be weightd since it flies. You cant detect heat since it has a magic heat shield. Every time you listen It can hold its breath for days if necessary. It is non corporial so you cant throw anything at it or it goes right through. Now, what is the difference between no evidence for the dragon and just no dragon at all?

In that case the dragon either exists or it doesn't. Whether I believe in it or not is irrelevant, as is whether you can provide proof of it's existence or not, the dragon will continue to exist or not exist either way.

(unless you want to get into the whole 'we create our own reality' minefield )

ISAW

stevenmu wrote:

In that case the dragon either exists or it doesn't. Whether I believe in it or not is irrelevant, as is whether you can provide proof of it's existence or not, the dragon will continue to exist or not exist either way.

(unless you want to get into the whole 'we create our own reality' minefield )

It is not a case of "we create our own reality". Arguments about Berkley, Hume and others dont really come into this nor any other philosophy of phenomonology. doubtless we may interpret things differently, but I do not doubt there is something really there.

The point I am making is what is the point in insisting that we believe in something that we can never see and have no evidence for? what is the difference between someone having no evidence for a dragon which never does anything that anyone can ever witness and no dragon? does it not seem pointless to believe in something that nobody else can ever find to be true? claiming "it is true anyway" when nobody now, nobody ever in the past and nobody in the future can not witness this truth seems slightly odd dont you think? surely a universe in which only the belief of one individual is of paramount importance is a bit selfish? shouldnt we think about others as well? remember where elevation of the individual and adopting the beliefs of some in spite of contrary evidence (e.g. that the Irish Jews Armenians were human too) led in the past?

Everyone has a right to a belief but not a right to demand others do what they insist based only on their belief.

stevenmu

ISAW wrote:

The point I am making is what is the point in insisting that we believe in something that we can never see and have no evidence for?

Just because there is no firm, scientifically verifiable evidence doesn't mean that there's none at all. This may be too different a scenario for a valid comparison, but in a criminal case there would be often be evidence pointing to a person being guilty but not enough to secure a conviction. This doesn't mean that the person didn't commit the crime, and it doesn't mean that there isn't potentially more evidence to be found, it just means that there isn't enough found yet to convince impartial, neutral peers of his guilt.

To take the example of Solas' friend again, and generalise from it somewhat, (s)he managed to draw a picture of a scene which (s)he later saw on TV. (S)He probably wasn't attempting to make a prediction at the time and quite possibly didn't realise it was a prediction or that there was anything unusual about it, perhaps thinking it was just his/her imagination. Because of this and the fact that the scene was the only information he/she had (no date/time/location etc), there was no way she could have provided the needed evidence to completly prove her prediction. And yet the fact remains that she had this picture of a scene before it happened, assuming of course Solas didn't make the whole thing up , but the scenario is a fairly typical one anyway. The it really comes down to how accurately the picture depicts the scene or if there's just a vague resemblance between them. From what Solas described in this case the picture and the scene itself viewed on TV were identical. You can call that post-fitting if you like, but I think if there are enough common elements in the picture and the real-life scene than the similarity becomes more than a possible coincidence. To take the Meath bus crash as another example, if someone had just drawn a car crash then I'd probably put that down as coincidence but if someone drew a picture with the bus and two cars in their correct positions with possibly a few of the rescue vehicles and maybe nearby buildings I'd see that as pretty signifigant.

ISAW wrote:

Everyone has a right to a belief but not a right to demand others do what they insist based only on their belief.

I completly agree with you there, as I'm sure most serious posters would. You saw what happened when Sollog started demanding obediance...

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

The point I am making is what is the point in insisting that we believe in something that we can never see and have no evidence for? what is the difference between someone having no evidence for a dragon which never does anything that anyone can ever witness and no dragon? does it not seem pointless to believe in something that nobody else can ever find to be true? claiming "it is true anyway" when nobody now, nobody ever in the

Quantum physicists do this all the time. The only tool we have to decypher the universe and our place in it is a 1.4kg organ in our skulls, and an evolved system of human logic. What Steven and others are suggesting is that there may be phenomenon in this amazing universe/reality of ours that falls outside of that, and in truth such things may never be decyphered using the tools we have. Many people are interested in these things, however, whether they can be scientifically quantified or not.

Even the most earnest believer in scientific methodology knows that there is more we do not understand than we actually do. Science is a 'faith' like any other. It's possible we have just created an elaborate set of rules based on observations and forced them to fit into a framework we can comprehend. Having said that, I personally believe in science as our best tool of understanding (at the moment), but I also accept that there are things outside of it's current sphere.

solas

well..no I didn't make it up hah..I'll try and get the picture.
The woman in question has been developing her abilties for some number of years and has been aware that her dreams have had significance in the past, which is why she decided to draw this one. Akin to ISAWs advice to record or journal instances, she wasn't sure why it was significant but she knew it was and decided to record it.
I'm aware of Randi's challenge but he has a tendency to move the goalposts whenever suits. The thing with precognition is that its like reading a paragraph a few chapters ahead of where you are now in the story. Those few lines give little detail of the wider picture with respects to location or times and dates or events leading up to that particular paragraph, just a few concise words/images of some event. Randi wants the entire book read before he considers it feasible.

solas

kernal wrote:

My prediction for the champions league is Liverpool.

kudos to you.
whether you believe in precognition or not, that match was pure magic

Kernel

ISAW wrote:

I do however note that you have made a prediction. you have predicted Liverpool will win the Champions league.

The first half of my prophecy has been fulfilled.

Kernel

solas wrote:

kudos to you.
whether you believe in precognition or not, that match was pure magic

Thanks solas, I guess it was meant to be!

Zillah

Kernel wrote:

Science is a 'faith' like any other.

Oh no you didn't go there...


Faith is the belief in something because you

A) want to

or :

have been told to.

Occasionally there is :

C) because you've leapt to one of many possible conclusions based on experience.

Religion requires faith as it is based on things that have not been verified. Science is based on belief in things that have been verified to the best of our puny brain's ability. Sure its not perfect, but its all we have. To so casually say something like "But we can't be sure of anything" implies the logic, "...So lets not bother".

It reminds me of an argument I had about objectivity in the media. One person was arguing that you can never truly be objective. My argument was that we should at least try.

ISAW

stevenmu wrote:

Just because there is no firm, scientifically verifiable evidence doesn't mean that there's none at all.

I accept that there are different kinds of evidence. Onc can say that if they look at the world around them that is is stupid not to accept there is some natural order to the universe. One can claim this is god or some universal law of physics (but then who made those laws?)

But having such a belief and someone claiming that they have a dragon in their garage are different things. similarly claiming to be able to predict the future but not ever making a valid prediction or one better than chance would naturally lead me to conclude that the ability does not exist. If someone claims to have it then let them make predictions.

It is a bit like saying that we can all believe in life elsewhere in the Universe but someone claiming to have met aliens had better be prepared to show me some evidence.

By the way I am glad to accept that I was wrong in one prediction - Liverpool DID win! I supported tham.

it just means that there isn't enough found yet to convince impartial, neutral peers of his guilt.

This actually is a good example. I am prepared to let a person go rather than assume guilt. I another way I am prepared to assume people may have psychic powers but they had better be just as prepared to provide evidence for those powers as they would if they wanted me as a juror to send someone to the gallows.

there was no way she could have provided the needed evidence to completly prove her prediction. And yet the fact remains that she had this picture of a scene before it happened, assuming of course Solas didn't make the whole thing up

It wasnt a prediction than! I can similarly draw a scene and after something happens which looks like my scene I can claim that I was predicting it! I suggest I could do this with anyone's pictures.

heres what a google inmages search of childrens abstract art gave me
http://www.insight-art.co.uk/images/gallery/childrens/small/lilly.jpg

Now I could claim this is a street light on a large road and below it is a bus door. Maybe she knew something was going to happen with a bus and children?

but the scenario is a fairly typical one anyway. The it really comes down to how accurately the picture depicts the scene or if there's just a vague resemblance between them. From what Solas described in this case the picture and the scene itself viewed on TV were identical.

which is why I asked the picture and the vidio be shown here.

I completly agree with you there, as I'm sure most serious posters would. You saw what happened when Sollog started demanding obediance...

Sollog is dead and died in very strange circumstances. His sock puppets survive him though.

Kernel

Zillah wrote:

Religion requires faith as it is based on things that have not been verified. Science is based on belief in things that have been verified to the best of our puny brain's ability. Sure its not perfect, but its all we have. To so casually say something like "But we can't be sure of anything" implies the logic, "...So lets not bother".

As I said, I agree that science and logic are the best tools we have to unlock the mystery of existence at the moment, but we need to appreciate that there are certainly things that science has not explained, and probably things that science (in it's current framework) can never explain, because the sphere of science and logic which we have evolved and developed cannot encompass them.

It's arrogant of us to think that we can unlock the secrets of the universe using a tool which we have developed known as science - unless you subscribe to the belief that science is universal. Some of the phenomenon in the universe can be made to fit our elaborate system of logic, some cannot.

solas

in al fairness ISAW..I very much doubt that she taped the video footage from the news. Do you generally tape the evening news?
I might be able to get hold of the picture she drew, but I suppose without comparison it is meaningless to you.