Elan to return?

Ajnag

Just curious if anyone knows what to expect with elan shares.
Considering that that they were above 20 euros before the drop and considering losing market valuation has no impact on their r&d done so far, The stock should return to higher values at some point.

So how long will it take or are they fecked?

jay567

Personal opionion: They will go back up again, in fact did so there a few days back. But the underlying fact is that they have burned themselves twice! thats a rocky road u should be carefull of.
Now in saying that, tybisil (spl) their product that pushed them so high a few months ago seems to be a good product when used as a stand alone. Deaths came when used along side another drug.

like everything theres a risk, just seems higher with this company. High risk = high returns. But also high losses if u judge the timing badly.

lomb

jay567 wrote:

seems to be a good product when used as a stand alone. Deaths came when used along side another drug.

l.

ummmmm http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/stocks/robertsteyer/10215550.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

and http://www.keralanext.com/news/indexread.asp?id=169484
tysabri even on its own is dead. the banks basically own elan now, and soon there will be a debt for equity swap, meaning the real shareholders will be the banks. stear well clear, unless u know something.

jay567

The link is refering to news thats over a month old and the other one didnt show anything, lots of banners?

To be honest i agree with u to a certain extent, as in a bet on Elan would be the last thing i would be getting into at the moment. But i dont think its right to say that tybisil (spl) is dead, only because its not correct.

The deaths "only" happened when taken with another drug. tybisil at the moment is going through tests that wont be finished untill towards the end of the yr, if the tests are return positive news, that one drug could turn the company around to a huge degree.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2005/0428/elan.html
my 2 cent.

lomb

That drug killed someone in single therapy recently. when a company is loosing 400 million dollars a year, it wont be around for long, and elan isnt that big of a company.

jay567

I wasnt aware of the drug killing under single use, any chance u have a link to the info (not doubting u at all, just courious). In relation to it loosing money hand over fist, i dont think anyone would/could disagree with that.

About it not being a very large company, no its not in relation to someone like pysier (spl) but if the drug did work it would have serious results on their profits, as it will if they cant get it back on track.

Point still stands that the trials have not been completed and therfore we are unable to have a complete view. Which makes my point of it being a risky (not stupid) move to invest in them.

lomb

see the link above here is an excerpt - Business News, Shares in Irish drugmaker Elan have plummeted once more after a third case of disease linked to Tysabri, its multiple sclerosis treatment.

Elan suspended the drug after two patients were found to have caught the rare disease, one of whom later died.

Both had taken a combination of Tysabri and US firm Biogen Idec's drug Avonex, but the new case - also a fatality - involves just Tysabri.

note the last line................

nesf

From the charts. (this does not consitute financial advice btw, this is my personal opinion)

The drop from the over 20's was a good thing if you didn't hold Elan stock. It's shown a good recovery, and we will get a clear indication when it hits resistance at the 4.8ish level. A high volume breakthrough of said resistance could lead to a sustained rally upto 10, and again more resistance.

The MACD is showing positive slope off negative readings, so you're looking at the build up out of a bearish position rather than bullish indications, again the resistance at 4.8 will be key.

Potentially this stock could regain its losses within 12-18 months if no more market confidence is lost due to bad news. I'd tentativlely take a small bullish position on this, mainly due to the shares bargain price at the moment, and the volume indications on the mini rallys of the past month. It will not rocket back upto 20, it will be a slow steady climb. The present low price is an indication of a lack of market confidence rather than a poorly performing stock, so while the fundamentals are ok, it might take a while for confidence to be restored in this stock.

If I had some spare cash I was looking to gamble with then yes I'd take a look at Elan, and look to buy in a small position now for sub 4.5 a share, and hold the position for about 2-3 years. Although I'd probably look at increasing my position if it breaks through to over 5 on good volume. There will be a retracement after the breaking so I'd look to buy at around 4.8-4.9 on the pull back.

I wouldn't consider these shares high risk at their present position, but I would not be looking at them for a long term large scale investment, their volatility as shown earlier this year is a bit on the high side, and I'd really be looking at just bargain hunting to be honest about it.

If however you are looking for a few cheap shares that are undervalued at the moment, you could do alot worse than take a look at Elan. But I wouldn't be investing anything I couldn't afford to lose in the them, with their volatility they could be nice, short term punts. Might be able to make 6-10 dollars a share profit on them from a 5 dallar lay out. Not too shabby

(The above is not financial advice but opinion. If you are thinking of purchasing or selling shares talk to your broker and do not just believe anything you see on a internet bulletin board.)

Blackjack

nesf wrote:

From the charts. (this does not consitute financial advice btw, this is my personal opinion)

The drop from the over 20's was a good thing if you didn't hold Elan stock. It's shown a good recovery, and we will get a clear indication when it hits resistance at the 4.8ish level. A high volume breakthrough of said resistance could lead to a sustained rally upto 10, and again more resistance.

The MACD is showing positive slope off negative readings, so you're looking at the build up out of a bearish position rather than bullish indications, again the resistance at 4.8 will be key.

Potentially this stock could regain its losses within 12-18 months if no more market confidence is lost due to bad news. I'd tentativlely take a small bullish position on this, mainly due to the shares bargain price at the moment, and the volume indications on the mini rallys of the past month. It will not rocket back upto 20, it will be a slow steady climb. The present low price is an indication of a lack of market confidence rather than a poorly performing stock, so while the fundamentals are ok, it might take a while for confidence to be restored in this stock.

If I had some spare cash I was looking to gamble with then yes I'd take a look at Elan, and look to buy in a small position now for sub 4.5 a share, and hold the position for about 2-3 years. Although I'd probably look at increasing my position if it breaks through to over 5 on good volume. There will be a retracement after the breaking so I'd look to buy at around 4.8-4.9 on the pull back.

I wouldn't consider these shares high risk at their present position, but I would not be looking at them for a long term large scale investment, their volatility as shown earlier this year is a bit on the high side, and I'd really be looking at just bargain hunting to be honest about it.

If however you are looking for a few cheap shares that are undervalued at the moment, you could do alot worse than take a look at Elan. But I wouldn't be investing anything I couldn't afford to lose in the them, with their volatility they could be nice, short term punts. Might be able to make 6-10 dollars a share profit on them from a 5 dallar lay out. Not too shabby

(The above is not financial advice but opinion. If you are thinking of purchasing or selling shares talk to your broker and do not just believe anything you see on a internet bulletin board.)

spot on my friend, definetly for buy and hold, can see them going back to about 12 to 15 at some stage in the next few years, depending on the publicity. Worth a punt if you have a few quid to spare.

nesf

Blackjack wrote:

spot on my friend, definetly for buy and hold, can see them going back to about 12 to 15 at some stage in the next few years, depending on the publicity. Worth a punt if you have a few quid to spare.

Cheers

With that volatility though I'd be loathe to hold onto it for too long. I'd be keeping a very close eye on her and be planning on at least taking some profits if it rose over 10. But then I'm a cautious person

jay567

cheers nesf, interesting read!

lomb

unless u work in the company or for the accounting auditors, u are throwing darts at a dartboard,on the titanic.

RainyDay

Ajnag wrote:

Just curious if anyone knows what to expect with elan shares.
Considering that that they were above 20 euros before the drop and considering losing market valuation has no impact on their r&d done so far, The stock should return to higher values at some point.

We had all these same predictions in February after the first dramatic drop. "Oh the price has dropped so it must be a good buy". There is no sense in that. The price is dropped for a bloody good reason - because the professionals who spend all day analysing these companies with the most sophisticated of tools reckon the current price reflects the future value of the company.

If you are going to invest in Elan, you'd want to find a better reason than the recent price drops.