Aintree Grand National

allin-king

any think the following horses have a chance at grand national,

Be my royal

world wide web

Timbera (fancy this one)

Frenchmans Creek

Historic

I backed Healy's Pub yesterday @ 25 / 1 on betfair and decided on some ante post bets at silly money for the craic as a little re-investment, any one know if any of these horses will probably not be declared?

Crumbs

allin-king wrote:

any think the following horses have a chance at grand national,

Timbera (fancy this one)

I don't think Timbera will be running. Ever.
Apparently he broke down towards the end of his recent prep race (Down Royal, 17th March) and has been retired. Some reports said he was put down but that's been refuted.

The strange thing is that he was still left in the race at the last declaration stage, which was only a few days ago. A mistake by someone at Dessie Hughes' stable? Or a Kicking King-esque miracle comeback?

Anyway, he's not on any bookmaker's ante-post list, although he's available to back on betfair at 110 or you can lay him at various odds from 250 up to 1000 for a total of €56.

tiedcottage

Yes, you can scratch Timbera. Frenchman's Creek was awful at Cheltenham and his long absence seems to have caught up with him. World Wide Web will not get in and wouldn't run anyway with JPM having so many others (Clan Royal, Risk Accessor, First Gold, Innox, Le Coudray if recovered from the Irish Nat problem, etc, etc), Be My Royal will struggle to get in also and, in any case, has lost all class and jumping ability since his return from injury. Historic will probably not quite get in, but I can tell you now would not win in a month of sundays.

I think anything below Kelami and Juveigneur in the list has no chance of making it in, and to be honest, the cut off point will be several higher than that, especially with Fergus Wilson insisting on running as many wastes of space (Astonville, Turnium, Persent Bleu and Wild Tempo) as he can.

This is the proper ordered list of entries (most tend to alphabetise those on equal weights, rather than give the correct order of entry and, lower down, elimination)...All Irish National runners marked as doubtful, though one or two might make it.


Horse's name, breeding, age, weight, trainer
(A maximum field of 40 will run).

GREY ABBEY (IRE) 11 11 12 Howard Johnson (WILL ONLY RUN IF SOFT IN GOING DESCR)
SIR REMBRANDT (IRE) 9 11 10 R. H. Alner DOUBTFUL, AGAIN WOULD WANT SOFT
LE COUDRAY (FR) 11 11 9 C. Roche DOUBTFUL
FIRST GOLD (FR) 12 11 8 F. Doumen
SEEBALD (GER) 10 11 8 M. C. Pipe DOUBTFUL
ROYAL AUCLAIR (FR) 8 11 7 P. F. Nicholls
RINCE RI (IRE) 12 11 7 T. M. Walsh
ALEXANDER BANQUET (IRE) 12 11 4 W. P. Mullins DOUBTFUL
MONTY'S PASS (IRE) 12 11 3 James Joseph Mangan
FONDMORT (FR) 9 11 3 N. J. Henderson DOUBTFUL (WILL ONLY RUN ON GOOD AT WORST)
TAKE THE STAND (IRE) 9 11 2 P. Bowen
BALLYCASSIDY (IRE) 9 11 2 P. Bowen
BALLYBOUGH RASHER (IRE) 10 11 1 Howard Johnson DOUBTFUL
RISK ACCESSOR (IRE) 10 11 1 C. Roche
JURANCON II (FR) 8 11 0 M. C. Pipe
BINDAREE (IRE) 11 11 0 N. A. Twiston-Davies
AMBERLEIGH HOUSE (IRE) 13 11 0 D. McCain
VENN OTTERY 10 10 13 M. C. Pipe
COLONEL FRANK 8 10 12 B. G. Powell DOUBTFUL
HEDGEHUNTER (IRE) 9 10 12 W. P. Mullins
FOLY PLEASANT (FR) 11 10 11 Nick Shutts
ASTONVILLE (FR) 11 10 10 M. Scudamore
AD HOC (IRE) 11 10 9 P. F. Nicholls
TIMBERA (IRE) 11 10 8 D. T. Hughes DOUBTFUL
HEROS COLLONGES (FR) 10 10 8 P. F. Nicholls DOUBTFUL
GLENELLY GALE (IRE) 11 10 8 A. L. T. Moore
IT TAKES TIME (IRE) 11 10 8 M. C. Pipe
CLAN ROYAL (FR) 10 10 8 Jonjo O'Neill
NIL DESPERANDUM (IRE) 8 10 8 Ms F. M. Crowley
LORD NOELIE (IRE) 12 10 7 Ms Bridget Nicholls DOUBTFUL
JOLY BEY (FR) 8 10 7 N. J. Gifford
JAKARI (FR) 8 10 7 H. D. Daly
FRENCHMAN'S CREEK 11 10 6 H. Morrison
IZNOGOUD (FR) 9 10 6 M. C. Pipe
GUNTHER MCBRIDE (IRE) 10 10 5 P. J. Hobbs DOUBTFUL, NOT OFFICIALLY, BUT ALWAYS GETS WD FROM THE NATIONAL, HAS DONE FOR THREE YEARS
POLAR RED 8 10 5 M. C. Pipe
DOUBLE HONOUR (FR) 7 10 5 P. J. Hobbs
FOREST GUNNER 11 10 4 R. Ford
COLNEL RAYBURN (IRE) 9 10 4 Paul Nolan
JUST IN DEBT (IRE) 9 10 4 M. Todhunter
SPOT THEDIFFERENCE (IRE) 12 10 4 Enda Bolger DOUBTFUL, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIM LEFT IN UNTIL NEARER TO THE TIME INCASE IT GOT SOFT
SHAMAWAN (IRE) 10 10 3 Jonjo O'Neill
LORD ATTERBURY (IRE) 9 10 3 Mrs O. C. Jackson
TURNIUM (FR) 10 10 3 M. Scudamore
INNOX (FR) 9 10 3 F. Doumen
EUROPA 9 10 3 Ferdy Murphy
MERCHANTS FRIEND (IRE) 10 10 3 C. J. Mann
ARCTIC COPPER (IRE) 11 10 3 N. Meade
HUNTERS TWEED 9 10 3 P. Beaumont
SIMPLY GIFTED 10 10 3 Jonjo O'Neill
STRONG RESOLVE (IRE) 9 10 3 Lucinda V. Russell
L'AVENTURE (FR) 6 10 2 P. F. Nicholls
MARCUS DU BERLAIS (FR) 8 10 2 A. L. T. Moore DOUBTFUL
NATIVE EMPEROR 9 10 2 Jonjo O'Neill
A PIECE OF CAKE (IRE) 12 10 2 J. S. Goldie
SUPREME GLORY (IRE) 12 10 1 P. G. Murphy
LONGSHANKS 8 10 1 K. C. Bailey
SMARTY (IRE) 12 10 1 M. Pitman
LORD OF THE TURF (IRE) 12 10 1 John Bleahen
WILD TEMPO (FR) 10 10 1 M. Scudamore
PRESENT BLEU (FR) 10 10 1 M. Scudamore
GARVIVONNIAN (IRE) 10 10 1 P. Mitchell DOUBTFUL
RED STRIKER 11 10 0 R. C. Guest
GUNNER WELBURN 13 10 0 A. M. Balding
DAVIDS LAD (IRE) 11 10 0 A. J. Martin
HISTORIC (IRE) 9 10 0 T. R. George
SWANSEA BAY 9 10 0 P. Bowen
BATHWICK ANNIE 9 10 0 D. P. Keane
ARTIC JACK (FR) 9 9 13 Mrs S. J. Smith
FREETOWN (IRE) 9 9 13 L. Lungo

The cut off will be about here, perhaps a few higher, as there are normally about a dozen unforeseen withdrawals over the last fortnight.

WINNING DREAM (IRE) 11 9 13 Oliver McKiernan
CASSIA HEIGHTS 10 9 13 S. A. Brookshaw
RAND (NZ) 11 9 12 E. N. Meade
BE MY ROYAL (IRE) 11 9 12 T. R. George
KELAMI (FR) 7 9 12 F. Doumen
KYMANDJEN (IRE) 8 9 11 Paul Nolan DOUBTFUL
OVER THE FIRST (IRE) 10 9 11 C. F. Swan
JUVEIGNEUR (FR) 8 9 10 N. J. Henderson

Frankly below here have next to no chance of making it...

ROYAL ATALZA (FR) 8 9 9 G. A. Huffer
WHEREAREYOUNOW (IRE) 8 9 8 N. A. Twiston-Davies DOUBTFUL
WORLD WIDE WEB (IRE) 9 9 8 Jonjo O'Neill
HEART MIDOLTIAN (FR) 8 9 8 M. C. Pipe
BE MY BETTER HALF (IRE) 10 9 8 A. L. T. Moore
MULTEEN RIVER (IRE) 9 9 8 Jonjo O'Neill
YOU'RE SPECIAL (USA) 8 9 7 P. C. Haslam
NATIVE SESSIONS (IRE) 10 9 7 N. Meade NR, DECEASED
ITSONLYME (IRE) 12 9 7 Venetia Williams
NEVER COMPROMISE (IRE) 10 9 7 T. M. Walsh
THIS IS SERIOUS (IRE) 11 9 7 C. F. Swan
MONTREAL (FR) 8 9 7 M. C. Pipe
FASHIONS MONTY (IRE) 9 9 7 P. Monteith
JACK HIGH (IRE) 10 9 6 T. M. Walsh DOUBTFUL
LATITUDE (FR) 6 9 6 M. C. Pipe
SPRING MARGOT (FR) 9 9 6 P. F. Nicholls
MINI SENSATION (IRE) 12 9 3 Jonjo O'Neill
BRIGHT APPROACH (IRE) 12 9 2 J. G. Cann
HEROIC (IRE) 9 9 1 C. F. Swan
HERSOV (IRE) 9 9 0 Paul A. Roche
SHERKIN ISLAND (IRE) 7 8 13 Jonjo O'Neill
CRUISE THE FAIRWAY (IRE) 9 8 13 B. G. Powell
DARK ROOM (IRE) 8 8 12 Jonjo O'Neill
MAJED (FR) 9 8 11 Mrs L. B. Normile
BOY'S HURRAH (IRE) 9 8 9 Howard Johnson
FARINEL 9 8 8 Jonjo O'Neill
ONLY ONCE 10 8 6 Howard Johnson
PAXFORD JACK 9 8 6 M. F. Harris
TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (IRE) 9 8 5 T. R. George.

Healio

This race is going to be too hard to call on form alone, so with that i will be investing 50 euro in five €5 e/w bets, so far i have No.7 (my lucky number), the bottom weight, and the highest priced outsider, now im lookin for two other horses, and i will be relying on all of you in here in the racing forum to provide them.

The jock

kelami
royal auclair

Crumbs

Clan Royal wins if he's fit and healthy.
Hedgehunter will run a big race and should at least place.

But seeing as they're both at the head of the market, we want something at a bigger price and I think Just In Debt at 33/1 looks interesting. 2nd in the Becher Chase last November, had a prep run over hurdles a couple of weeks ago, currently due to carry 10-4 but wouldn't be a problem if the weights rose a bit and Dobbin has committed to ride it even though the ride on Grey Abbey or Amberleigh House could become available to him.

tiedcottage

True, JID has a chance, but remember last year when he was out with the rags when unseating at the 23rd. He needs soft ground and, though there's 50% more chance of that at Aintree than Cheltenham (there's a soft ground national approx every five years on aeverage, compared to every ten at Cheltenham).

I agree re Royal Auclair, Kelami if he gets in has a chance, and Hedgehunter, too, though the loss of David Casey makes it more interesting, as he'll have to learn to settle as he ran out of steam from the front last year. Longshanks has EW chances, second in the Topham last year, like Monty's Pass before him, will stay further and laid out for the race, Only an 8 year old, too, and they have a good record in the race.

evillive

after last years meeting i invested some of my winnings on amberleigh house on clan royal at 25/1 and made some more bets at 20/1

i think the value may be gone now since his stable is not firing at all well yet but the champion jockey on board should help if he makes it on the day

straight after amberleigh house won last year his owner said to watch out for kelami this year who he also owns and i think he has a great chance if cheltenham didnt take too much out of him

tiedcottage

The problem is still that Kelami and Juveigneur cannot be backed with confidence as they have only a small chance of making the cut. They can't win from position 44.

masterK

tiedcottage wrote:

The problem is still that Kelami and Juveigneur cannot be backed with confidence as they have only a small chance of making the cut. They can't win from position 44.

If you look at the trainer quotes on the Racing Post website Francous Doumon said that the only reason he ran Kelami at Cheltenham was because he was unlikely to get into the Grand National.

The Rooster

thanks for that full list tied cottage.

I'd be grateful if anyone could answer these questions:

If say the top 3 weights all pulled out, can the other weights all be increased, or are they now fixed?

Has Graham Lee decided whether or not he's going on Amberleigh House again (I remember reading he was to decide between AH and another horse, who's name escapes me)?

Anyone know who Barry Geraghty will be riding?

BTW, as a decent outsider bet, I think Davids Lad is very good value at 40/1 (with PP at the mo). He was one of the favourites last year going off at 12s, but disappointed. Went the distance, but I think he finished last. This year, he's still only 11 (AmberH was 12 last year). I think 40/1 would be about right if he was carrying the same weight as last year, but he's over a stone lighter (10-0 vs 11-4), so it looks like good value on the face of it. year.

Crumbs

The Rooster wrote:

If say the top 3 weights all pulled out, can the other weights all be increased, or are they now fixed?

If the top 3 were pulled out, then First Gold would be the new top weight, going from 11-8 to 11-12 and so every other horse's weight would rise by 4lbs.
Only at the final declaration stage (Thursday 7th March I think) are the weights fixed. If a horse is declared a non-runner after that, the weights wouldn't change.

Has Graham Lee decided whether or not he's going on Amberleigh House again (I remember reading he was to decide between AH and another horse, who's name escapes me)?

Hasn't been announced yet but I think he's deciding today. Grey Abbey is the other horse.

Anyone know who Barry Geraghty will be riding?

Probably Monty's Pass again, but not certain.

BTW, as a decent outsider bet, I think Davids Lad is very good value at 40/1

Agreed. Although he's not quite as good as he was two years ago (when he had that 40-day non-triers ban that kept him out of the race), he's still decent and could put up a good show off a low weight.

tiedcottage

Grey Abbey's out of the National, didn't school well apparently. Lee rides AH.

Wouldn't back DL unless the ground rode like the M1. Even on good ground with three drops of rain on it last year he ran like it was a bog and trailed in a parish behind. His time has gone, like Ad Hoc's has gone (DL ironically bringing the latter down when they looked to have it between them in 2002).

tiedcottage

Those confirmed out are Native Sessions (obviously), Sir Rembrandt, Grey Abbey, Timbera, Drombeag, Colonel Frank...

Those with serious doubts are Juveigneur, Fondmort, Spot Thedifference, Lord Noelie, Gunther McBride (withdrawn from last two, excuses again being made, with R Johnson on Jakari, owners may not risk him), World Wide Web, Multeen River..

Also Le Coudray, Alexander Banquet, Marcus du Berlais, Garvivvonian, Jack High, Kymandjem all ran in Irish National, so serious doubts for this. W Mullins said AB would go to Punchestown after Fairyhouse, no mention of Aintree.

Jonjo quoted that Clan Royal, Shamawan, Native Emperor and Simply Gifted are the only horses he will run, if they all get in, which they will.


Also bear in mind before betting on the following...

First Gold (may not run if top weight, especially with Doumen and McManus having Innox in the race and McManus several other possibilities). Also, ground currently soft, and he needs it good.

Monty's Pass, will probably run no matter what as at the age of 12 it's prbably his last chance, but cannot abide the slightest drop of rain.

It Takes Time, a doubt for many in that he likes small fields and conditions races, but he was entered for everything at the festival and didn't run, so he's been held back for this meeting.

Jurancon II, may not run if It Takes Time runs, ran in Midlands National, which takes a lot out. Johnson and Pipe already withdrew Celestial Gold, never even entered Iris Bleu, so doesn't look like the race is top of their priorities this year. Pinning hopes on Lord Atterbury.

Frenchman's Creek, unlikely to run if ground too soft.

Merchants Friend, ditto.

Red Striker, doubts earlier in the season, is missing from some antepost lists.

David's Lad, unlikely to run on soft ground.

Artic Jack, didn't take to Aintree on two previous visist and listed as doubtful on several antepost lists. Owner has Hedgehunter, Hunters Tweed and Europa for race and horse only has slim chance of making the cut.

Swansea Bay, likes good ground and not certain to run with Bowen represented by Take the Stand and Ballycassidy, who are described as certain runners.

Bathwick Annie, ran in Midlands National.

In spite of all withdrawals and doubts, JPM could have record number of runners for one owner...First Gold, Innox, Clan Royal, Shamawan, Risk Accessor all likely to line up, and Le Coudray a possible.

At the moment, I like the look of Take the Stand, Nil Desperandum, Double Honour, Lord Atterbury (if ground no worse than good) and Longshanks.

Next declarations on Monday at the 5 day stage, then 48 hour declaration on Thursday.

liamdye

ive chosen mine for the national and just hope one gets in.

They are:
Hedgehunter (Ruby Walsh on board and went off too fast last year)
Clan Royal (2nd last year, proven over national fences)
Forest Gunner (Proven over national fences likes soft and rain is forecast)
Longshanks (proven over national fences, staying on last year in Topham)

another one could be L'aventure as he is a proven stayer and normally sprouts wings at the end of his races, also he runs a flat spot during a race and i dont think this will matter too much in the national.

Crumbs

liamdye wrote:

Hedgehunter (Ruby Walsh on board and went off too fast last year)
Clan Royal (2nd last year, proven over national fences)
Forest Gunner (Proven over national fences likes soft and rain is forecast)
Longshanks (proven over national fences, staying on last year in Topham)

I don't think Hedgehunter's problem was that he went off too fast last year. He runs his best races when allowed to stride out in front and just didn't see out the trip. When held up too much, he doesn't seem to run as well. But he mightn't have any other option but to be held up this year. Forest Gunner will be forcing the pace with Strong Resolve right up there too. If Hedgehunter goes along with them, it'll be a similar story to last year. He also has the added burden of carrying more weight (11-1, at least) on probable softer ground. That said, I still wouldn't rule him out.

The forecast rain this week has changed things for a lot of horses. The likes of Royal Auclair, Take The Stand and Lord Atterbury would prefer good ground and I'm not sure that Forest Gunner will stay the distance on soft going. Others like Strong Resolve and Colonel Rayburn will enjoy the rain and have been backed accordingly.

another one could be L'aventure as he is a proven stayer and normally sprouts wings at the end of his races, also he runs a flat spot during a race and i dont think this will matter too much in the national.

"She" is very much an out-and-out stayer alright. But she's only a 6-year-old and she's quite small. If she jumps around, she'd probably place but I wouldn't bet on that.

I've narrowed it down to five horses myself (Hedgehunter, Clan Royal, Just In Debt, Strong Resolve and Longshanks) but I'll wait to see what the weather is like closer to the race before putting down my money.

qwertyup

Anyone got any tips (or links to analysis) for the Thursday races? We could only get tickets for the one day, and I'm finding it difficult to get odds/info on the various horses running then.

The Rooster

tiedcottage, would you (or anyone else) be able to post up the current list of 85 in the proper order with their revised weights?

masterK

The Rooster wrote:

tiedcottage, would you (or anyone else) be able to post up the current list of 85 in the proper order with their revised weights?

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=368041&r_date=2005-04-09&flag=1&cards=1

tiedcottage

No idea about the actual order of the revised weights, but I can tell you Hunters Tweed is now horse 41. They have reordered all horses on 10st4lb (of which Strong Resolve was originally the lowest of the 10 on that weight and the only one to miss out) according to CURRENT handicaps marks, rather than those of early February. But anyone who's backed HT need not worry, as First Gold has come out today (as I knew he would, he's been withdrawn from the last two as well) and there will be others to follow.

Morgans

agreed 100% with what Crumbs said on Hedgehunter, and l'aventure. It is hard maybe impossible to train stamina into a horse. It can happen as they get older but HH is almost too flamboyant a jumper for his own good. Uses a lot of energy in the air, when you consider that Lord Atterbury walked through most last season and still finished third. Red Marauder jumped about two fences when winning. Hedgehunter pinged each one with feet to spare, and was knackered on the long run between three and two out.

Ideally you want a horse that will pop along merrily, even more so in soft ground. A safe but not spectacular conveyance. Love to see him win but dont think that he will.

Well handicapped horses in the race are Take The Stand, prefer good ground but has run good races in the soft. IMHO would have finished ahead of Strong Resolve in the Welsh National but for bring brought down. If the race was over Mildmay fences, he would be a short priced favourite. Could do a Rough Quest. Any self respecting punter cannot ignore him. Joly bey is unlucky not to have landed a big handicap before now. He reamins well weighted and definitely has a big race in him. laid out for this race, he should go close and is under the 11 stone threshold. Forest Gunner's aptidude for the national fences gives him a serious chance. The way he kept on at Haydock over 3m4f gives supporters hope that he will stay the extra distance. If he does, it will take a good effort to beat him.
First Gold is very well handicapped on his Haydock second to Lord Transcend but the weight he will have to carry, plus improvers beneath him should mean that he wont win.

Couldnt back Clan Royal or Amberleigh House.

My outsider for the race is Marcus Du Berlais, needs a few to come out of the race to get his run, but has had a very quiet year, one impressive win in the leopardstown chase before finishing third at Fairyhouse. Behind what could have been two very well handicapped horses. Last year, six days after winning the natioanl, granit d'estruval was upsides when falling at the last in the SCots National. If Marcus de Berlais has recovered, 50/1 with sporting odds, NR no Bet should be taken. I think he is the only value left in the race. Ive backed him and Joly bey at 20s so far.

If the ground gets tacky, it really does become a lottery, as it is hard ot know how horses will jump out of it.

tiedcottage

I would agree re L'Aventure, but wouldn't back against her on the 6yr old front. After all, remember Cyfor Malta treating these fences with contempt as a 5 yr old and no-one would have used that argument against him had he lined up the following year. Saying that, I don't think she can win, she's just too slow. She only seems to warm up after about 3½ miles, rather tlike that other old plodder Just So, and I can't see her winning.

Totally agree he Hedgehunter, if he didn;t get home last year, he won't get home this year, and being a front runner who knows no other way, he surely can't get home. Saying that, we said the same about Kicking King...

Marcus de Berlais is value if he's over his Irish national exertions, but it's a big if as the national is a race it's harder to get through after a hard race. It's safe to say about Gd'Estruval last year, and Ebony Jane did finish fourth days after winning the Irish National, but it's still a big ask. It's not like Le Coudray, who pulled up before the action heated up, MDB had a hard race. It's asking a lot, but I agree he's value.

Totally agree re Clan Royal as you cannot back Jonjo's horses with confidence, though would love to see him win for Jonjo and Ap, not to mention to see history made (I don't think any other horse has won three different races over the national fences, and he's already won the Topham and the Becher).

As for Amberleigh House, the last 13 year old to win was Sergeant Murphy in 1924 and, though Red Rum might have bucked that trend but for injury in 1978, it still pretty much says it all. I think from memory the last 13 year old to be placed in the first four was Rondetto in 1969! As for Lord Atterbury, he surely prefers good ground and cannot be backed until we know that to be expected, which is doubtful. Plus his jumping would have to be improved, even though the fences are undoubtedly symptomatic of the trend in racecourses of going soft (see also Cheltenham, Haydock, Newcastle, etc).

Bindaree could be value, having won it before and showing signs of a return to form in the Welsh National, fresh, too. Only concern is his jumping of these fences since, having fallen heavily three times out of four and landed on his belly at Bechers on both circuits on the other occasion.

masterK

It's easy to find holes in claims for almost every horse in this years race. Hedgehunter may not stay, Amberleigh House too old + too much weight, Clan Royal stable out of form, Lord Atterbury ground, Forest Gunner & Joly Bey Jockeys, Take the Stand weight.

That narrows it done to two for me, Strong Resolve and Longshanks, with the former not guaranteed to get a run. I'd margainly prefer Strong Resolve based on his Welsh national run and the fact he has never fallen in 15 chase starts to date.

Morgans

I had a big bet on Strong Resolve over 2m6f at Kelso where he was beaten quite easily by Haut de Gamme. He is entered in the Topham and will give a good idea of the form. I dont think that Strong Resolve is quite classy enough to win a national. Love to see the horse win, but just not good enough, I think.

Bindaree is very well weighted. He was my number 1 fancy last year where he looked to have been an improved horse - after having been somwhat in the doldrums having won the race. This year he hasnt sparkled so far, and NTD is probably hoping that Aintree will rekindle some enthusiasm. He is not bad value at the odds.

The Rooster

I see Royal Camilla is the new top weight for Saturday:

http://homepages.tesco.net/~hugh.daly/Royals.jpg

hibs4ever

Who's McCoy on

masterK

hibs4ever wrote:

Who's McCoy on

Clan Royal

scojones

The ground is going to be very very soft, Ad Hoc is the winner for sure.

If by some miracle that the ground is not soft, I'd go for Hedgehunter / Monty's Pass.

tiedcottage

Oh contraire, Ad Hoc won't stay the trip in soft ground. He won the first of his two what used to be the Whitbreads on soft ground, but he's woefully out of form.

As for no chance of it being good, there's every chance, no serious rain expected between now and Saturday and it's drying out by the hour. We have had four very soft ground nationals in rceent years (89, 94, 98, 01), but not this year. It'll be good to soft at worst, but any remotest droplet of rain will mean Monty's Pass handles it like a bog. Hedgehunter shouldn't be inconvenienced either way, but hsi stamina is suspect.

goin'_to_the_PS

damn rince ri whats with him and scratching????

fade2black

How many people think that Hedgehunter can win? It would be a shock to me to be honest if he won. Surely he's carrying too much weight.

goin'_to_the_PS

who will win............erm....pick an number between one and forthy, its very first winner's name says it all "lottery"

nlgbbbblth

anyone remember Greasepaint?

2nd 1983
2nd 1984
4th 1985

greatest horse never to win the Grand National?

I see he's not running on Saturday

Healio

I have my five selections picked out. Through my rigorous process of no horses over ten, none carrying over 11st 2lbs, and my way of reading form, Here they are in racecard order:

25 - Double Honour
28 - Just in Debt
30 - Innox
33 - Lord Atterbury
40 - L'aventure

Make what you want of them.

tiedcottage

Forget Greasepaint, unlickiest national horse would be Wyndburgh, who ran six times and was second three times and fourth once. I would also rate Suny Bay higher, his second in the bog of 1998 was probably behind only Crisp and Prince Regent among great weight carrying performances in defeat.

As for Rinci Ri, label under the file "let's enter him for the national year after year though we have no intention of ever running him". In this file you will also find First Gold and Gunther McBride among horses still in training.

As for Healio's quintet, good selection, but I can see them as more e.w chances, can't see any of them winning.

de_roiste

Well, this was a quote from Mr Mullins:

"I think he is stronger this year, but he has enough weight.

"However, I think he is better, and his form has proved that."


I'm thinking of the following:
Hedgehunter
Take The Stand
It Takes Time
Just in Debt
Monty's Pass

fade2black

Hedgehunter is an eacy way selection. If he wins I'll be eating my hat.

de_roiste

fade2black wrote:

Hedgehunter is an eacy way selection. If he wins I'll be eating my hat.

And what would you like with that sir!?

fade2black

Ask me again on saturday at around 4.30.........

scojones

G'wan HedgeHunter!

Seriously though it's too hard to say. Sure it's snowing in England now......

Healio

tiedcottage wrote:

As for Healio's quintet, good selection, but I can see them as more e.w chances, can't see any of them winning.

Thats the plan, the only winner i can see out of those five would be Just in Debt, ah sure its only for the spectacle.

fade2black

My 5 picks for tomorrow...

1. Nil Desperandum
2. Hedgehunter
3. Heros Collonges
4. Innox
5. Take the stand

revo

hey guys i put my bets on
nil desperandum
and
just in debt (lets hope it gets me out of debt haha)

fade2black

Do y'all like how I say Hedgehunter can't win but yet I pick him to come 2nd? lol......Tomorrow is gonna be fun

Crumbs

I'm sticking with my previous shortlist.

1. Clan Royal
2. Just In Debt
3. Strong Resolve
4. Hedgehunter

eirebhoy

Got this from a website:

Trends
Nothing under 8 years old - Nothing over 11 stone - Only 2 favourites in the last 10 years - Some course form (4 out of the last ten winners were sweet on Aintree) - nothing over 40-1 - good jumper - Stamina

Applying most of the above the best that are left in our opinion are:

Clan Royal

Can't really fault the horse but a question mark over the stable this year and only one run under his belt so far. Can win the race on his day so must be included in your each way betting.

Forest Gunner

Best form going into the race and will jump for fun out in front. Should get the trip but slight worry on the jockey front - not enough to put us off though and a live chance.

Innox

Dark Horse of the race and we wouldn' be surprised to see this in the frame after the last fence - has some great form going into the race and a nice light weight - at 20-1 a decent each way bet.

Hedgehunter - ( just outside the 11 stone cut off )

Obvious contender but decent weight to carry round although reports are he is better than last year so again a must for your each way betting.

Outsider:

Heros Collonges ( just outside the maximum price at 50-1 )

One of the classiest horses in the race on his day - big absence and then a storming return in his first race back but then a let down at Cheltenham - ground needs to come up with a bit of cut and then this horse could be a value bet each way.

Conclusion:

Its hard to get away from Clan Royal's credentials to win a Grand National even with the stable problems but we think he may have to play second fiddle to Forest Gunner this year as he did to Amberleigh house last year. Hedgehunter is likely to be in the frame but we think the weight he has to carry will finish him off .

Advice -

Each way bets on all of the above - stronger on Clan Royal and Forest Gunner.

Forest Gunner for a moderate win.

chump

I've shortlist is currently:

Foly Pleasant 50
It Takes Time 20
Clan Royal 10
Jakari 33
Just In Debt 28
Innox 18
L'Aventure 50

& Montys Pass, as I always like to have money on Geraghty


But I don't want to bet on more than 5... who should make the cut?

fade2black

Definitely Innox anyway, I like the fact that JP bought this horse in the run up to aintree with the GN in mind. Nicely weighted too. I'm not gonna tell you who to eliminate cause it's your decision and I'd be sick if one of them got into the frame....What I will say though is that it would be close to a miracle if Monty's pass got into the first three today.

chump

Jees, didn't realise Jakari and Innox were pricewise, can't possibly win now!

I've offloaded Montys Pass to my gf who has a thing for Geraghty

ended up going for:

Foly Pleasan
Jakari
Just In Deb
Innox
L'Aventure

All about 2.50 each way (BIG MONEY!)

Good luck to everybody

fade2black

Oh we all have a thing for Geraghty lol

fr wishy washy

my 2 are innox & heroes collonge.

best of luck to yeh