Folding a 60 40 edge

Hectorjelly

I was browsing though old RGP threads I had book marked and came across a few gems. This explains better than I did why you shouldnt fold a 60 40 edge, and also addresses Toms points...


*******
Okay, I can't stand it anymore. I've got to get in on this thread. I don't
think the "fold" responders have thought this through carefully, because I
think that's a really silly notion. Consider the following model:

You are presented with this same situation over and over. True, your
chances of busting out are high, but WHAT IS YOUR EV? Very, very good
tournament players earn 1-2 buy-ins per tournament. How much will you earn
in this tournament if you call every time? Well...

Let's assume ther are 256 players in the tournament, and you are constantly
being presented with this situation (meaning that other players are busting
out and pumping up the stacks of the players that flash their QJs and move
in on you). You would have to win this confrontation 8 times to become the
winner. If you won it 7 times, you would come in 2nd place. If you won it
6 times, you would either get 3rd place or 4th place (depending on whether
you get into this confrontation while there are 3 players left or 4). Let's
not take it any farther than that, okay?

Probability of winning 8 times= (0.6)^8 = 0.0168 (Winner of tournament)
Probability of winning 7 times, then losing the 8th = (0.6)^7*(0.4) = 0.0112
(2nd in tournament)
Probability of succeeding 6 times then losing the 7th = (0.6)^6*(0.4) =
0.0187 (3rd or 4th in tournament)

The ev in the most PESSIMISTIC case (using only the above numbers, assuming
4th place for the 6-in-a-row winner, and assuming a prize breakdown of $1M,
$500K, $250K, $125K) is:

0.0168*$1M + 0.0112*$500K + 0.0187*$125K = $24,738 = 2.45 buy ins!!

This means that this strategy is much better than the strategy used by the
very best players when they can't see their opponents' cards, which means it
is better than "waiting for better spots".

I think the problem is that people have personal utility functions that lead
to strategies different from the non-intuitive maximum-ev strategy. I think
this stems from the fact that people just don't think that doubling through
is particularly great ("there is still so far to go"), but busting out is
disastrous. Well, think of this: The best players expect to win 1-2
buy-ins, so they have a probability of winning the tournament against 255
opponents that is on the order of 1% (probably less than that, since their
ev includes the possibility of finishing lower in the money). Your chances
of finishing in the money when you have a 60% chance to double through on
the first hand may not go up by much in an absolute sense, but this absolute
change doesn't have to be much in order to improve your 1% by a substantial
fraction.

That's it. I hope you "I'd fold and wait for a better opportunity"
advocates reconsider your positions.

Oh wait, that's not it. There could be other bankroll considerations
involved with deciding whether a decision to call fits into your risk/reward
utility (eg does this call exceed your Kelly criterion, if that is your
utility of choice). All I can say is that if it does, then it's very likely
you already broke that barrier when you decided to play this tournament in
the first place.

Tom Weideman

http://tinyurl.com/6c2je

*******************


Heres a link to the whole thread: http://tinyurl.com/5cuu8


And related to that here is a Paul Phillips post on calculating your tournament equity

http://tinyurl.com/5ehzv


This was all sparked by luckyblinds most recent post.

Shortstack

Now can you translate that for me !

I prayed to lady luck and the very next tournament all my hands held up ( well enough to get 4th out of 272 )

'If you keep banging your head against a brick wall it will eventually fall'

Now get inspired to enter some satellites and you can travel on your holiday and test your mettle against some of the luckiest players in poker !

I have to say although I don't confess to understand all the maths about equity and stuff, i would never fold a hand where I thought I was ahead by more than 53 %. Unless I have AA and and a solo magpie flew by the window.

Samba

o.k I would agree with you on a tournament basis, but in a cash game play do you think it is economical to bang your chips in on every 60/40 edge in terms of profit/loss win/lose, you are not going to make a huge amount of progress while risking your stack everytime, no?

DapperGent

If you have a suitable bank roll for the level you're playing at not banging your stack in everytime you have a guaranteed 60/40, would be nuts in my opinion.

If you don't have a suitable bankroll for the level you're playing at, you're already making a tremendous mistake.

henbane

Samba wrote:

o.k I would agree with you on a tournament basis, but in a cash game play do you think it is economical to bang your chips in on every 60/40 edge in terms of profit/loss win/lose, you are not going to make a huge amount of progress while risking your stack everytime, no?

If you don't take every edge you get in a cash game, you are losing money. The reason this debate always centres around tournament play is the other considerations in tournament play. I don't think there is an argument against taking a 60/40 edge in a cash game.

Samba

I understand perfectly where you are coming from but being someone who does not like losing much in Poker I play a style of play which limits loss and risk.


6 out of 10 hands you will win which to me seems like a minor gain for such dramatic play.

You are risking your entire stack 10 times only to win 6 of the 10, the financial gain is minimal for such big risk taking.

There is no gaurantees that you will necessarily win 6 times in 10 in ten straight hands, the potential loss to me does not merit the potential winnings.

For you to make this call every time, realistically you need a very deep bankroll to make this play profitable every time.

The day I do have a million dollar bankroll i will take that 60/40 edge everytime... just not right now

You can call it overcautious, it is, but that's how I like to play my poker esp. Cash play.

Lets say for argument sake that each pot was $200 for playing through $2000 if your hard earned cash you are gaining a measly $200 over a period of time.

You are staking $2000 for a return of 200...that's not for me i want a better edge.

DeVore

In a cash game I'll always bang it in when 60/40. No question.

In a tournament, 60/40 would be enough for me to take but 52/48 isnt. Go figure.

DeV.

henbane

What edge do you want in a cash game? In a cash game, you should be pushing all your edges. You may lose money on some of them but longterm you will be ahead.

Samba wrote:

You are risking your entire stack 10 times only to win 6 of the 10, the financial gain is minimal for such big risk taking.

Winning something 6 in 10 means losing 4 in 10; longterm you will make money on this. I don't know how it's possible to argue against taking those kind of edges.

There is no gaurantees that you will necessarily win 6 times in 10 in ten straight hands, the potential loss to me does not merit the potential winnings.

There are no guarantees someone won't hit a single outer on the river but you would be happy to take that edge. If you want guarantees, don't play poker for money.[/rant]

Samba

Henbane..no need to rant.

What does it it take for me to push all my chips in? Certainty that I will win the pot.




I understand your point and I agree you will overall over a period of time you will be in profit, I am more conservative and will remain that way until my bankroll is suitable to make this play day in day out to make that profit.

The profit though almost does not seem worth it if you take my example of each pot size being $200

Iago

Samba wrote:

I understand your point and I agree you will overall over a period of time you will be in profit, I am more conservative and will remain that way until my bankroll is suitable to make this play day in day out to make that profit.

The profit though almost does not seem worth it if you take my example of each pot size being $200

Personally if every pot is worth the same amount then I think you have to push. If every pot you lost in a 60/40 was $200 and every pot you won was $100 then you could argue the toss, but everything being equal I think you have to play these.

If you're worried about your bankroll, then maybe you shouldn't be playing at that level, which I think is the point made in the article. I do see where you're coming from and they say that caution can be rewarding, just wouldn't suit me particularily

If I know that on average 6 times out of 10 I'll win and 4 times out of 10 I'll lose in that situation then I'll push...

Samba

The bankroll is the big issue here and you are right, I probably shouldn't, but sit tight, wait patiently, play cautiously and you win alot more than you lose.

I have about $1200 in my ladbrokes account. I play 2 50/1 tables and 2 25/50 tables and on occasion hit the 1/2 tables.


so that is a total of $300 of my 1200 on the table. 25% is it too much? I rarely lose a buy in. but my bankroll does not exactly Race upwards either.

DeVore

What does it it take for me to push all my chips in? Certainty that I will win the pot.

Er... didnt you call my all in bet when you had a 4-flush with one to come recently? Yes, I seem to recall you did.

DeV.

Samba

your all in? cough. Small stack.

I had seen two flush draw flops against you Tom and lost about 7 Euro seeing them prior to hitting it the third time and I was drawing to the nut flush.

I called the bet on the flop you had so little chips left I had to call your bet on the turn, would have been insane to put it down.

Besides I had reason to believe my A was also good if it hit, correct me if I am wrong?

Anyway guys, point taken, you have converted me!!! (there will be lawsuits if my bankroll goes bust! ) I am going to see how profitable this edge can be to me.

DeVore

It wasnt for a small amount since it was in the capped 25 game. It was one card to come and yes if your flush hits its the nut flush but with one card to come... hardly certainty of which you speak... just pointing out a couple of home truths you might not be able to see from up on that high horse of certainty

DeV.

Samba

lol

Now you are twisting my words, I said to push all my chips in, not to call someone who has all of their chips in.

But yes I do quite like certainty and you saw that yourself when that flop came AAK, I did some probing to see if someone had AK (as unlikely as it was as I was the only one to raise the pot). Then when I was confident I was the winner of that pot I made my move.

I'll be in for tonights game, I presume you will want my blood!!

Samba

Mmm, i think an apology to henbane is in order, fired off the gun there. sorry.

Marq

Samba wrote:

but yes I do quite like certainty and you saw that yourself when that flop came AAK, I did some probing to see if someone had AK (as unlikely as it was as I was the only one to raise the pot). Then when I was confident I was the winner of that pot I made my move.

you should have just done a real moody call when i bet into you. i would have bluffed off all of my chips with queen high on the river.

Samba

O.K 60/40 NO.1 Bust out of the Tournament tonight.....

Here is how it went. Im on BB and get dealt Q4o loads of limpers checked around and we see a flop.


Flop comes Q48 all hearts checked around to SB who bets 1k I call, another caller (at this point I knew exactly what he had an overpair with good kicker with one heart)Turn brings a 7c. He bets 1k Again, I think to myself right, only one more card to come he is defintely chasing while freerolling on the overpair, so I go over the top.


The guy makes no hesitation what so ever, doesn't think!!!!! (he had just arrived at our table) had he been there all night he may well have considered folding at this point.

He calls I was delighted with my read, no flopped nuts he turns over AQo

At this point it was pinpoint 60/40(even 61.5!!!!) in my favour.... The look of dumbstruck on his face said it all, he was way off on what he thought I had (thought I was drawing).

Of course the River sends me home. and I said CURSE YOU ALL WITH YOUR 60/40!!!!

I will continue with Faith to make these 60/40 calls and we shall see how it goes.

So far 1-0 to 40. What really bugs me is that had I taken down that pot I was in position for the final table......

Hectorjelly

Funnily enough 60 40 calls rarely come up in cash games, not in the ones I play anyway. Unless your up against brain dead morons (ie the cash game at the Fitz (present company and anyone who knows what they are doing excluded)) its rare to find all ins with anything other than AA and sometimes KK.

DeVore

Whats amusing is that if Sambo counts up the score for the 60/40 hits he takes, and over time proves us wrong because the "40" option wins say, 60% of the time, then we can simply proclaim that empirical investigation has shown that the "40" option is ahead 60% of the time. QED.


DeV.

Iago

DeVore wrote:

Whats amusing is that if Sambo counts up the score for the 60/40 hits he takes, and over time proves us wrong because the "40" option wins say, 60% of the time, then we can simply proclaim that empirical investigation has shown that the "40" option is ahead 60% of the time. QED.


DeV.

Funny, I was just thinking the exact same thing

mewso

We are of course asumming an amazing ability to know with absolute certainty that to call an all-in will end up in a 60/40 scenario.

DeVore

Aye muso, I said exactly that to Samba last night. Its all very well if you know for sure that your AK is facing QJ (roughly 60/40 afaicr) but you dont know for a fact that its not facing AA!

DeV.

mewso

I'm just wondering if you suspect you are up against a hand that would give you a 60/40 edge does your margin of error for reading opponents hands make it actually a 50/50, 40/60 etc.

Samba

Laugh it up fuzzball!


In online play, there isn't a hope in hell of sniffing out a 60/40 situation (pre-flop, unless you really know the player) be it tourny or cash game.


And yes I will keep count of all my 60/40 situations that arise over a period of a few months and see how I fair. (in terms of profit, not how many times I lose).


You gotta love the Irony of last nights hand.

Iago

Samba wrote:

Laugh it up fuzzball!


In online play, there isn't a hope in hell of sniffing out a 60/40 situation (pre-flop, unless you really know the player) be it tourny or cash game.


And yes I will keep count of all my 60/40 situations that arise over a period of a few months and see how I fair. (in terms of profit, not how many times I lose).


You gotta love the Irony of last nights hand.

Ah yes the ironing is delicious...

In fairness I've gone over the top 5 times in the last two days with 72o when behind and I've won every time maybe you should be playing your 40/60 edges instead of your 60/40 edges

DeVore

the chances of being wrong are important. Thats why AK is favoured over 22. AK is only dominated by AA and KK. 22 is dominated by all higher pairs, giving it a huge downside if you're read is correct and that chance of being dominated means that 22 becomes a hand people drop rather then push their 4% edge on.
Just an observation...

DeV.

Hectorjelly

I often know if people have AK based on their raise

Lafortezza

I often know if someone needs to wash based on their odour.

Samba

That's some sixth sense you have there Luke