Another Balkan war?

Magwitch

I have the feeling reading the news that something is amis. Macadonia is firstly on the offensive and close to the Border, retaking rebel villages and position.

Then a report arises that 10 armed men have taken over a section of a town close to Skopje. Two days later that number is 1000 men and they are threatening to shell targets in Skopje with 120mm mortors.

During the Kosovan war KLA commanders did state that they were going to unite all Kosovans is Serbia and Macadonia. Reports that the current rebels are only Mafia are not far of the mark but there is a definite political expansionist will.

NATO and the UN are powerless to step in and help the Skopja government given that they are so tied up in Kosovo and are hence vunerable. So is Skopje to be hung out to dry? Of all the confusion,war and cross-politics that have gone on in since 1990 in the Balkans it seems ironic that all the trouble should end up exactly where it started, with Kosovo.

The UN and EU have called on the Skopje government not to declare war, but it seems to be unaviodable at this point. And where could that led?

DadaKopf

Hilarious. Don't edit anything that a moderator has edited again.

[This message has been edited by DadaKopf (edited 14-06-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Castor Troy (edited 14-06-2001).]

bugler

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Magwitch:

NATO and the UN are powerless to step in and help the Skopja government given that they are so tied up in Kosovo and are hence vunerable. </font>

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">NATO and the UN are powerless </font>

I almost fell off my chair on seeing that, but I digress...

Vulnerable to what? A small force of AK-47 wielding rebels? Not the mighty NATO who rained righteous justice down on the heads of the people (ethnic albanian refugee and Yugoslavian soldier alike) from a safe height surely? NATO has over 40,000 troops on the ground in Kosovo, so it's not the means that is lacking it is the will. Why? Well Bush got elected on the back of promises to reduce the number of US soldiers abroad in conflicts, and made promise to reduce the amount of men serving abroad.As we all know,the US runs NATO.NATO goes nowhere without the US saying so. So being drawn into a bloody civil war in the balkans( a region which scares them by the way, very reluctant to get involved on the ground) would not be a wise political move. Bush does not want US soldiers going home in bags, his critics have enough ammunition as it is.

Another theory on why NATO is reluctant to become involved is that they trained and helped organise the same men who are now pushing into Macedonia, and to confront them would mean facing up to this, the fact that they created a 'monster'.

Confusion and ethnic trouble have alot more history in the region than that dating from 1990 aswell, lets not forget.

[This message has been edited by bugler (edited 13-06-2001).]

Belisarius

Also theyres an Inherent unwillingness to engage Albanians as theyre is still a massive sentiment in the US *hencely NATO*, in that all too fimiliar black and white attitude , Serbs are bad guys Albanians are goodguys , the US will not pull thier weight as it will provoke thought ,and inevitably embarrising questions in a very cushioned US impervious to the Harsh realities of the US's foriegn policy

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Shrewgar!

DadaKopf

I actually got talking to some Macedonian last night by chance and he said there is was already. Undeniable war.

Can't say I agreed with this person's politics though; was convinced that 100% of Albanians are criminals, mafia members and want to invade Macedonia and take it over. Also that Milosevic was a good man and that Nato won't help them but contradicted himself when he said that when Nato and the West does intervene, all they do is give people money. The impression I got was that the West didnt help them because we didn't murder the Albanians.

If this person was an average Macedonian, I'm not surprised that there'll be war again - he couldn't even understand the strategic advantage of seeking a peaceful resolution. He thought they should all be killed.

It's tough to say but the Europe can really do very little for the region - they have to sort things out themselves, go through the motions. So, yeah, there'll be war.

Magwitch

America (or more accuratly NATO) is partially responsible for not clamping down on the border region with Macidonia. However their situation is precarious. The Kosovan government of Ibrahim Rogova does enjoy popular support but not the backing of more raical elements in the Kosovo. If NATO were to engage this would only drag NATO in further security co-operation with Serbia and compromise it postion with regard to its persuit of Serbian reform, the Hague, development of trust between NATO and a fledgling Kosovan police force (ex-KLA) and risk entering an unpopular, confused and ultimitly unwinnable war.

The Kosovan rebels threat to shell the capitol of Macidonia, Skopje was met with the correct govenment responce and that was massive force. The Rebels conseqently ropped their demands for talk and any pre-conditions and called a ceasefire. They paleyed a bluff and it did not work. Now they have 1000 troops holed up and surounde 8km from Skopje. Will they provke al ut war? I do not hink it is in their interests.

However that siad the KLA was accused to prevoking Serbian reprisals against civilians on purpose during the Kosovan crises. The current splinter groups tactic of holding civilians in towns they occupy would suggest a simular ploy now.

The rebels are more than a small force of AK weilding thugs. They show a professionalism not seen in the KLA, a talent for hit adn run warfare and are armed with weapons like the stinger missle. However I believe they have over played their hand.

Magwitch

P.S. DadaKopf, Macadonia has a huge ethnic serbian minority. This guys you were talkng to sounds like he might belong to that grouping considering Macodonias sour and sometimes violent relationship with the Milosovic government.