Another war in Yugoslavia?

Magwitch

It looks like a war in Montenegro is in the offing. Milo Djukanovic has to hold a referendum in the summer on independence or his own side will string him up. And there is no way in hell Kostunica will allow the loss of unrestricted access to the Adriatic sea and the Yugoslav fleet if hot heads prevail no matter what the outcome of any referndum is.

There have been wars before and vicious affairs they were, but to call them civil wars was a bit of a stretch. However Montenegro is comprised of a high amount of Serbs (Milosovic comes from there) so any fight would be nothing short of horrific.

People in Montenegro want to assert a non-serb identity, one which apparently was absorbed and diminished by centuries of Serbian influx and cultural lambasting. However it is interesting that during the Serbian war on Bosnia both Serbia and Croatia took the line that the Muslems were not a true nation or culture but serbs and croats who had betrayed their heritage by converting to Islam centuries ago. Hence they could be persecuted and dispatched as traitors with no real culture or country of of thier own. The same (but worse) scenario is about to be played out I believe in Montenegro.....

DadaKopf

Yeah, the Turks messed that area up good all those centuries ago but so did the Greeks, Austrians, Germans, English, Russians etc. etc.

I honestly think that with the spectre of Europe hanging over Macedonia's joining the EU, the greater Balkan region might want to follow suit. People are realising there that there is money to be made regardless of ethnic differences and I'm quite sure the youth of the Balkans is war weary and eager for change. Milosevic's steady decline in support accross the region is proving that.

The region has many wounds but with the keymaster out of the picture, the gatekeepers are ready to make a change - not even the Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina are willing to support Karadzic.

I honestly don't think war is a serious threat in this regard. Even if the US does pull out of the region or have less influence or involvement, I think Nato and the European community is willing to take care of ourselves. Forget needing America, we can protect our own region.

Bah, this is wandering and hardly making a point. Anyway, Montenegro voted for secession and I don't think Kostunica is going to oppose the west about sea access too much - he's trying too hard to be respectable. However, they DO need sea access - it's always something I've been curious and worried about. Perhaps they'll set up an international port like Gdansk.

Personally, I think the best thing for Yugoslavia to do is to federalise again but i know that's nearly impossible.

Lalala, sorry to take up you're time!

---

"I collect spores, moulds and fungus."

Magwitch

On the face of it what you say is true. But Karadics party has been relected to power in a landslide in Serbian-Bosnia and their policies are no less radical, hence to date they have recieved a fraction of structural funds they are supposed to get. Kostunica is also an unrepentant nationalist. The only difference between him and Milosovic is the issue of corruption, which got him elected. Apart from that his other policies are pritty hard line. Djukanovic had Milosovic arrested (and another general before that) without Kostunicas knowledge (he was in Norway at the time and heard it on the news). I don't know about direct involvement from Serbia in any internal strife within Montenegro, but there is enough tension and division to fuel a conflict anyway.

A pro-succession vote would require Serbias intervention to carry it and insure sea access. But this would require Kostunica to act against Serb nationalists(expansionists) in Montenegro...