Is the Lotto rigged do you think?

billy the squid

Just heard tonights numbers

10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37

and there was one winner

now do these numbers look random, and what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

I donno something is not right .

feylya

The next time they're adding a million to the lotto, watch the two or three draws preceeding it. They won't be won.

dangerman

:rolleyes:

seriously. what the ****?

quick pick could have picked those numbers.

stupidest thread ever.

fade2black

it aint rigged..just really hard to win. I laugh when i hear people say stupid things like...6 hasn't been out in a while..it's sure to come out soon..Oh dear. it's a fool tax but it's true enough when they say someone has to win....they don't but I guess it happens more than it doesn't...lol...

now scratch cards on the other hand. There's actually a new one out now....Diamond bingo, it costs €3 and the new thing about this one is that no one wins. Seriously....check it out. My girlfriend is partial to buying two whenever she sneaks away from me in a shop and there's never been a winner.

TCamen

what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

Umm Quick Pick?

Hal1

Feck the lotto, giv me a €1 euro all cash. I always win on those well €8 here and there

seamus

billy the squid wrote:

Just heard tonights numbers

10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37

and there was one winner

now do these numbers look random, and what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

I donno something is not right .

As an employee of KPMG I can wholly and completely guarantee* that it's not rigged.
Tbh, as others say, a quick pick probably got it, but there's no reason why someone wouldn't have picked those numbers. Intuitively, it looks like a strange possibility, but mathematically, it's just as likely as any other combination. Now, if they came out in numerical order, *thats* a different kettle of fish altogether

*Not a guarantee. No-one but the designated guy has anything to do with the lotto

ixoy

It's all random. If I bothered to play the Lotto, I'd be tempted to choose a sequential series, such as 8,9,10,11,12,13 precisely because the mathematics of it say it's as likely as any other, apparently more abritary set.

I'd assume that, over a broad period of time, we should see every number appearing a (roughly) equal number of times, assuming all the balls are equal...

karlh

On the ninth draw of the UK National Lottery in 1995 133 ticket holders shared the jackpot.

I would easily believe that a ~random set of numbers are chosen each week but engineered to create the most desireable amount of winners and rollovers. I'd say this process just messed up in the above case. Haven't done the maths but seems seriously suspect....

PH01

there no question about it.
I've played it a about 80 time since 1992 and I haven't won yet. It fixed I tell you.

sprinkles

$||-><-||$ wrote:

1 2 3 4 5 6 is just as random as 4 12 34 24 17 29, they only seem non-random to you because the numbers have meaning to you, they don't to the machine

I agree. The maths is there, its the same odds of getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 (not coming out in that order) as getting 10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37.

Your better off doing to the lotto in the bookies if you really want to do it at all. Odds are far better.

Aldini98

dangerman wrote:

:rolleyes:

seriously. what the ****?

quick pick could have picked those numbers.

stupidest thread ever.

Yeah and your contribution compounds that :rolleyes:

Blub2k4

$||-><-||$ wrote:

1 2 3 4 5 6 is just as random as 4 12 34 24 17 29, they only seem non-random to you because the numbers have meaning to you, they don't to the machine

Hmm I would've thought you were into possiblity versus probability?
I may not be right though.
There is absolutely no chance that it is rigged.

scargill

billy the squid wrote:

10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37
now do these numbers look random, and what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

Mr and Mrs Murphy (aged 37 and 32) and their four kids aged 10,11,12,13 have probably picked these ?

gerire

It is quite possible someone could have picked those numbers, for example birthdays etc mine is on the 13th of Oct and the gf's is on December 11th yada yada yada. The odds of actually winning the lotto are huge, 30+ million to 1 and the odds of winning the euro millions are 70+ million to 1.

So the next time you buy a lotto ticket having your 4 leaf clover, rabbits foot and pot of gold with you still probably wont be enough to have with you

scargill

and another thing....there is nothing stopping 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming out for draw !!!

scargill

and another thing....there is nothing stopping 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming out for every draw !!!

Aldini98

Indeed

Abdiel

$||-><-||$ wrote:

1 2 3 4 5 6 is just as random as 4 12 34 24 17 29, they only seem non-random to you because the numbers have meaning to you, they don't to the machine

I have to agree with you on this one !

As for the 133 winners on the UK lotto that someone mentioned, it would depend on the numbers - for example probably thousands of people would pick 4, 7, 11 as their first three numbers probably with 37 in there as well.

Homer : Im thinking of a number between 1 and 50
Marge : Is it 37 ?
Homer : Doh !

The "random" numbers most people would pick arent as random as they think.

JackieChan

Firstly the odds of winning the jackpot of the irish lottery are about 5.5 m to 1. Better than the 30m/1 quoted earlier, but the same amount of 4 leaved clover and rabitts feet needed.

I had a couple of spare mins and was checking my lottery numbers on www.lotto.ie . No joy of course.
But if your numbers were 10,12,19,32,37,40 and you had done the lotto plus draws, you would have won a prize in each draw from last night!!!

4 number for main draw 51EUR
3 numbers for lotto 1 2EUR scratch card
3+bonus on lotto 2 4EUR

On another note I find that quick picks seem give you quite a bit of overlap on numbers between different lines.
JC

Peteee

JackieChan wrote:

10,12,19,32,37,40 and you had done the lotto plus draws, you would have one a prize in each draw from last night!!!

hehehehe

Anyways, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming out are the same as any 6 arbitrary numbers.

The reason you shouldnt pick those numbers are because about 100 other people had the same idea as you. And you'll end up with about 10 grand from your supposed 1 or so million

cujimmy

billy the squid wrote:

Just heard tonights numbers

10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37

and there was one winner

now do these numbers look random, and what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

I donno something is not right .

Shes 32 her husband 37 they have 4 children aged 10,11,12,13

woosaysdan

BILLY THE SQUID wrote:

Just heard tonights numbers

10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37

and there was one winner

now do these numbers look random, and what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

I donno something is not right .

what was the bonus number?

billy the squid

woosaysdan wrote:

what was the bonus number?

2

Gordon

I have on quite a few occasions picked 3 numbers in a row just for fun. I can see myself picking 4 too. Kind pissed off you told me that as if I did the lotto I might have won it.

robbie1876

Peteee wrote:

Anyways, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming out are the same as any 6 arbitrary numbers.

As an aside, apparantly there are 6000 people who pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week. Can't remember exactly where I heard/read that, but wouldn't you be pissed if your numbers came up and you had to share the jackpot with 5999 others?

Capt'n Midnight

robbie1876 wrote:

As an aside, apparantly there are 6000 people who pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week. Can't remember exactly where I heard/read that, but wouldn't you be pissed if your numbers came up and you had to share the jackpot with 5999 others?

I think that if that happened then the match 5 people would each win more because even though the pool of prize money is smaller there would be far fewer of them

On the original question as to whether it is rigged - lets put it this way 80% of the money doesn't come back as prizes, and the newsagents and people running it take a bigger cut than the charities, when you take into account how much the Govt' saves on them. So the draw is the only thing not rigged.

eirebhoy

fade2black wrote:

it aint rigged..just really hard to win. I laugh when i hear people say stupid things like...6 hasn't been out in a while..it's sure to come out soon..Oh dear.

I was actually thinking about doing the lotto with Paddy Power. You pick 2 number and you get odds of 50/1 for both to come out. I went on to the official Lotto site and it has all the stats there. What you say there is certainly not true. The number 40 ball has not been drawn since September 15, a whole 24 draws ago! It has been drawn 175 times since 1994 which is pretty average.

I'm not sure if the Lotto has been running twice a week since 94 but lets say it was for the moment. 52 (weeks) x 2 x 10 (years) = 1040 draws. Since the number 40 has been drawn 175 times it has been drawn an average of once every 6 draws. But it hasn't been drawn in 24.

The chances of it coming out in the next couple of draws would be a lot higher than the number 37 for example, purely down to the law of averages.

Sorry if I sound like a Lotto nerd but 10 minutes work on the lotto site mite make my Christmas a lot happier.

BTW, the doubles I'll be putting on are:
40 - 18: €5
40 - 16: €5
18 - 16: €5

If two of those 3 balls are drawn I get €255 back. Worth a shot.

Guy:Incognito

eirebhoy wrote:

I was actually thinking about doing the lotto with Paddy Power. You pick 2 number and you get odds of 50/1 for both to come out. I went on to the official Lotto site and it has all the stats there. What you say there is certainly not true. The number 40 ball has not been drawn since September 15, a whole 24 draws ago! It has been drawn 175 times since 1994 which is pretty average.

I'm not sure if the Lotto has been running twice a week since 94 but lets say it was for the moment. 52 (weeks) x 2 x 10 (years) = 1040 draws. Since the number 40 has been drawn 175 times it has been drawn an average of once every 6 draws. But it hasn't been drawn in 24.

The chances of it coming out in the next couple of draws would be a lot higher than the number 37 for example, purely down to the law of averages.

Sorry if I sound like a Lotto nerd but 10 minutes work on the lotto site mite make my Christmas a lot happier.

BTW, the doubles I'll be putting on are:
40 - 18: €5
40 - 16: €5
18 - 16: €5

If two of those 3 balls are drawn I get €255 back. Worth a shot.

But also because its totally random and each ball has the same chance of coming out, it is no more likely this week than any other no, see ,works both ways.

Flukey

There are 5,245,786 different combinations of 6 numbers out of 42. Given that you have to play a minimum of 2 lines you have about a 2,622,893 to 1 chance of winning.

If you wanted to predict the sequence the numbers come out in too, then there are 3,776,965,920 permutations. Try getting odds on that off a bookie!

Aava

Flukey wrote:

There are 5,245,786 different combinations of 6 numbers out of 42. Given that you have to play a minimum of 2 lines you have about a 2,622,893 to 1 chance of winning.

Um, I don't think playing 2 lines would increase your chances by half... rather increase them by about .0000002%

Flukey

If you have 2 guesses, you are twice as likely to get it than having 1, though it would still be an extremely long shot. Your chance of getting it is remote but the likelihood has doubled.

seamus

Flukey wrote:

If you have 2 guesses, you are twice as likely to get it than having 1, though it would still be an extremely long shot. Your chance of getting it is remote but the likelihood has doubled.

This is exactly the way that statistics and probability are manipulated to make people's cases sound better.

If you have two lines, that gives you two chances in 5,245,786, which *is* actually one in 2,622,893. You can't really celebrate yet though. In order to bring your odds down to something reasonable - say one in 1,517 - you would have to spend €3,458 (assuming that each line costs €1 and each line you bought was unique on your slip).

Even then you are not guaranteed to win within 1,517 draws, but if you did pick the same 3,458 lines each draw, and (assuming that no two groups of number ever reoccur - which they do) entered every draw (two a week isn't it?), it could take 14.5 years and €5,245,786 before you win.

(Yes, it's a slow afternoon).

Superman

man the lotto is well bogey, I enter all the time and don't win nothing.
I can hear ya all now saying "blah blah blah statiostics blah vlah blah" but still it's bogey!

Cactus Col

I was talking to a chap who told me it is rigged, the balls each have their own magnetic signature, and the machine is programmed to select which signature for any given night. (Generally Wednesdays and Saturdays though)

Fact.

blobert

This guy didn't also think he was Jesus by any chance, did he?

Zombrex

Cactus Col wrote:

I was talking to a chap who told me it is rigged, the balls each have their own magnetic signature, and the machine is programmed to select which signature for any given night. (Generally Wednesdays and Saturdays though)

Fact.

LOL

"I was talking to a chap ... fact!" .. Classic

that put a smile on my tired-from-long-week face. I think I am going to go and chat to a taxi driver about Fianna Fail :rolleyes:

2 minutes writting this and still smiling. Thank you mysterous stranger

Mad Mike

eirebhoy wrote:

The chances of it coming out in the next couple of draws would be a lot higher than the number 37 for example, purely down to the law of averages.

Sorry eirebhoy but "the law of averages" as you call it is a dangerous fallacy that has cost a hell of a lot of gamblers their shirts.

The law of averages

If (as most people accept) the lotto draw is genuinely random then 40 is no more or less likely to come up than any other number regardless of how many times it came up in the past.

If on the other hand the lotto is not purely random - for example if some of the balls are weighted - then the fact that 40 hasn't come up in a long time might suggest that the draw is biased against 40 and you should stay away from it. You wouldn't bet on a no hoper for the Derby simply because it had never won a race before, would you?

Either way betting on a number that hasn't come up in a long time is a fools errand.

Wertz

Of course the real scandal about the Lotto isn't whther it's fixed or not (I've always thought it was ince rollovers seem to get large around public holidays), but as to why the Lotto 2 and 3 draws DON'T rollover when they're not won.

Most people going in to do the Lotto will take Lotto+ where you pay 50c (?) extra per panel to have your numbers count for the bonus draws.
The lotteries' thinking behind that is that people who play regularly will do the Plus "just in case the numbers come out".
For every week that it remains unwon the National Lottery pull in the 200K or 300K respectively. The payouts for 5+ 5 or 4 are a joke and put barely a dent in the profits they make on the Lotto Plus system.

Don't even get me started on where the charitable output of the NL actually goes to...

elexes

i work in a shop with a lotto machine and the ammount of ppl in my shop that won money from numbers they pick not quick pick from that draw last wensday was huge compaired to most normal lotto jackpot days .

bet it was a old age pensioner

that reminds me anyone see the adds for that old woman who was dieing and her family were fighting over who would get the lotto winnings so she spent it all on adverts saying she was sick of the fighting she wasnt dead yet and was going to spend every penny foolishly since the way they acted was so bad

o and i am officaly one of the highest current winners of money from the euro millions in europe since only 18 ppl have won money greater or equal to the ammount i won ( 8k ... bah )

Cactus Col

blobert wrote:

This guy didn't also think he was Jesus by any chance, did he?

No, but he did say he was Jesus' Daddy

eirebhoy

Mad Mike wrote:

Sorry eirebhoy but "the law of averages" as you call it is a dangerous fallacy that has cost a hell of a lot of gamblers their shirts.

The law of averages

If (as most people accept) the lotto draw is genuinely random then 40 is no more or less likely to come up than any other number regardless of how many times it came up in the past.

If on the other hand the lotto is not purely random - for example if some of the balls are weighted - then the fact that 40 hasn't come up in a long time might suggest that the draw is biased against 40 and you should stay away from it. You wouldn't bet on a no hoper for the Derby simply because it had never won a race before, would you?

Either way betting on a number that hasn't come up in a long time is a fools errand.

Forget stats and facts for the moment. Lets say we have 42 balls in bag (no pun intended). Someone has picked a ball out of the bag 168 times (7 ball x 24 weeks). They have picked every single ball except the number 40. It was 8 draws ago since the second last "unkown" ball was drawn but the number 40 has still not come out. Lets be honest, its only a matter of time before the number 40 comes out and I'd prefer to pick that ball than any other random ball.

Wertz

eirebhoy wrote:

Forget stats and facts for the moment. Lets say we have 42 balls in bag (no pun intended). Someone has picked a ball out of the bag 168 times (7 ball x 24 weeks). They have picked every single ball except the number 40. It was 8 draws ago since the second last "unkown" ball was drawn but the number 40 has still not come out. Lets be honest, its only a matter of time before the number 40 comes out and I'd prefer to pick that ball than any other random ball.

Sure but at the time of picking the bag is still full of those 42 balls regardless of how many times 6 balls have been pucked out of it. Still statistically the same chance of the 40 coming out or not coming out, as any other.

On a side note all this talk of "balls", "bags" and "coming out" is making me very uncomfortable...:eek:

NotMe

Peteee wrote:

hehehehe

Anyways, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming out are the same as any 6 arbitrary numbers.

The reason you shouldnt pick those numbers are because about 100 other people had the same idea as you. And you'll end up with about 10 grand from your supposed 1 or so million

Yeah but if those numbers do come up you're still better off having picked them and sharing the money than having picked different numbers.

eirebhoy

NotMe wrote:

Yeah but if those numbers do come up you're still better off having picked them and sharing the money than having picked different numbers.

You'd probably have spent the winning celebrating in the pub that night. If what was said earlier is true and there is ~6,000 people that pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week, I'd rather not win anything than win the lotto with 6,000 others.

segadreamcast

Simple way of debunking this myth.

A coin is tossed 40 times and - unlikely as it may seem - it comes up heads 40 times.

It is tossed a 41st time - which way is it most likely to come up? Heads or tails?

Neither...! A coin doesn't have a memory - it is equally likely to be either heads or tails on the 41st toss, despite its past performance.

The exact same principle - but on a more convoluted scale - occurs in Lotto.

eirebhoy wrote:

I was actually thinking about doing the lotto with Paddy Power. You pick 2 number and you get odds of 50/1 for both to come out. I went on to the official Lotto site and it has all the stats there. What you say there is certainly not true. The number 40 ball has not been drawn since September 15, a whole 24 draws ago! It has been drawn 175 times since 1994 which is pretty average.

I'm not sure if the Lotto has been running twice a week since 94 but lets say it was for the moment. 52 (weeks) x 2 x 10 (years) = 1040 draws. Since the number 40 has been drawn 175 times it has been drawn an average of once every 6 draws. But it hasn't been drawn in 24.

The chances of it coming out in the next couple of draws would be a lot higher than the number 37 for example, purely down to the law of averages.

Sorry if I sound like a Lotto nerd but 10 minutes work on the lotto site mite make my Christmas a lot happier.

BTW, the doubles I'll be putting on are:
40 - 18: €5
40 - 16: €5
18 - 16: €5

If two of those 3 balls are drawn I get €255 back. Worth a shot.

NotMe

eirebhoy wrote:

You'd probably have spent the winning celebrating in the pub that night. If what was said earlier is true and there is ~6,000 people that pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week, I'd rather not win anything than win the lotto with 6,000 others.

Well I'd prefer to win something rather than nothing.

eirebhoy

NotMe wrote:

Well I'd prefer to win something rather than nothing.

Ah yeah but if your expecting to win over £1m and you find out you get less than €500 I'd be pretty down. Don't win anything and you wouldn't be as down.

NoelRock - I know all that but I'm basically picking a number. i chose the one which hasn't been picked since September rather than picking a random number.

In_Diana_Jones

billy the squid wrote:

10, 11, 12, 13, 32, and 37

now do these numbers look random, and what are the odds of someone actually picking these numbers.

about :

3,776,965,920 - 1

Mad Mike

NoelRock wrote:

Simple way of debunking this myth.
A coin is tossed 40 times and - unlikely as it may seem - it comes up heads 40 times.

It is tossed a 41st time - which way is it most likely to come up? Heads or tails?

Neither...! A coin doesn't have a memory - it is equally likely to be either heads or tails on the 41st toss, despite its past performance.

I beg to differ NoelRock If you produced a coin and flipped it 40 times and it turned up heads every time I think that would be a pretty strong argument for betting on heads don't you?

Certainly it could be a fair unbiased coin but given that there is only a one in one million million chance of a fair coin turning up heads 40 times in a row I think it's a pretty safe bet to assume that the coin is rigged.

If fact if Eireboy is still reading - A far more sensible line of approach is to pick some numbers that have come up a lot recently just in case there is some bias in the balls. I wouldn't hold out much hope however - I am sure the Lotto people have thought of that and at very least swap the balls regularly.

Flukey

Superman wrote:

man the lotto is well bogey, I enter all the time and don't win nothing.
I can hear ya all now saying "blah blah blah statiostics blah vlah blah" but still it's bogey!

Well you are obviously very lucky. If you enter all the time and do not win nothing, then you must win a lot.

Right guys, if you have not already picked numbers for tonight, maybe you should ask Superman, or even Superluckyman, what he is picking for tonight.