October 2025 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks …

IMT is 12.3 (1.3 above normal for 1-14 Oct), second week average 11.0 (0.3 above normal).

MAX 19.6

MIN ??? (our highest forecast was -0.8 from tae laidir)

PRC 110% of normal, second week quite dry at 2.4% of normal.

SUN 44% of normal, second week 33% (despite Valentia being 82%) …

… … our lowest forecast was 86% (dacogawa)

Max sea level pressure, 1037 mb was already reported allowing for an early scoring as shown above (any later higher reading will not change this scoring).

M.T. Cranium

October 1989 had the lowest sunshine total to date for Shannon (43 hrs), and in that cloudy month the lowest min was 4 C, similar to the very mild October of 2001. 43 hours represents around 35% of average for the location.

So it's safe to say we are seeing (so far) a near-record dull October, and lack of overnight cold readings. The high minimum record is easier to lose at the last minute than low sunshine totals.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123908526#Comment_123908526

Yes, Dublin Airport had its 2nd cloudiest first half to October on record. Only 1st-15th Oct 1949 was cloudier with 21.0 hrs. Haven't looked at others.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks …

IMT at 12.2 (1.5 above normal for 1-21 Oct), third week average 12.0 (1.9 above normal)

MAX … 19.6 C

MIN … (edited) had not noticed anything in our range or even below 5 C but it was 2.8 C at Mullingar on 22nd, perhaps lower values will be recorded around Sunday or Monday.

PRC … 108% of normal (third week quite average at 104%)

SUN … 48% of normal (third week average once again dull at 57%)

max sea level pressure 1037 mbs already scored earlier

Tae laidir

Casement had a min of 3.6 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Moore Park min of 3.3 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Casement 2.7 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks …

IMT 11.4 C (anomaly 1-28 Oct +1.0) (fourth week average 9.0 C, 0.5 below normal)

MAX 19.6 C

MIN 2.7 C

PRC 104% of normal (fourth week average 92%)

SUN 65% of normal (fourth week 115%)

Max sea level pressure 1037 mbs _ already scored back in thread

… would expect all of the stats to look similar at end, SUN could improve a bit, but it won't alter the situation relative to needing minimum progression; PRC will perhaps edge up to 110%.

… will score from estimated values on 1st and adjust if needed on 4th (if we are still here) … in the event of a lockout situation, you probably know by now where to look for the weather forum refugees. If not, send me a message.

Tae laidir

Not that it affects scoring, but Athenry had a min of 1.0 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 11.2

PRC 116%

will take a look at scoring for OCT later today perhaps.

M.T. Cranium

Preliminary scoring for October 2025

(to be confirmed on 4th after checking some data in Monthly Summary from met.ie)

^ MIN scores from minimum progression; SUN scored from 80% higher than expected outcome, as our lowest forecast was 86%

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__max slp___ TOTAL

__ Estimated values __ 11.2 _19.6 _1.0 _116 _070 _1037 mbs

Joe Public ___________ 14 _ 10 _ 12^_ 10 _ 04 __ 07 _____ 57

Cornerstonelad _______ 17 _ 00 _ 17^_ 11 _ 02 __ 07 _____ 54

Artane2002 __________ 19 _ 10 _ 15^_ 06 _ 08 __ 06 _____ 64

Appledrop ____________21 _ 06 _ 05^_ 13 _ 08 __ 08 _____ 61

Gonzo ______________ 21 _ 15 _ 16^_ 11 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 75

Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 08 _ 02^_ 11 _ 06 __ 02 _____ 52

WolfeEire ____________ 23 _ 15 _ 03^_ 11 _ 07 __ 03 _____ 62

Pauldry______________ 25 _ 07 _ 10^_ 09 _ 08 __ 04 _____ 63

M.T. Cranium _________ 25 _ 09 _ 10^_ 12 _ 08 __ 04 _____ 68

john mac ____________ 24 _ 00 _ 08^_ 13 _ 06 __ 08 _____ 59

waterways ___________ 24 _ 02 _ 08^_ 09 _ 07 __ 10 _____ 60

Dacogawa ___________ 24 _ 04 _ 13^_ 07 _ 09 __ 09 _____ 66

__ Con Sensus _______ 24 _ 09 _ 11^_ 15 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 72

Mr stonewall _________ 24 _ 20 _ 18^_ 13 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 88

Mr Skinner ___________23 _ 16 _ 14^_ 14 _ 06 __ 06 _____ 79

bsal ________________ 22 _ 14 _ 11^_ 13 _ 05 __ 03 _____ 68

Tae laidir ____________ 22 _ 12 _ 19 _ 07 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 72

Jpmarn _____________ 21 _ 07 _ 05^_ 12 _ 04 __ 09 _____ 58

Kindred Spirit ________ 21 _ 17 _ 05^_ 13 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 69

DOCARCH ___________ 20 _ 00 _ 06^_ 14 _ 07 __ 10 _____ 57

Dasa29 _____________ 18 _ 01 _ 14^_ 13 _ 04 __ 06 _____ 56

__ NormaL __________ 14 _ 11 _ 06^_ 10 _ 06 __ 03 _____ 50

(comment: I cannot recall a month previously where all forecasts scored above 50 and in general were in such a narrow range, well done to Mr stonewall, MrSkinner and Gonzo who will lead the way unless I have overlooked something fairly significant in my estimates)

========================

(actual values)

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max slp

__ Estimated values ___ 11.2 _ 19.6 _ 1.0 _ 116 _ 070 __ 1037 mbs

Joe Public ___________ 12.3 _ 18.6 _ -2.2 _ 102 _ 108 __ 1032 mbs

Cornerstonelad _______ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.5 _ 128 _ 120 __ 1031 mbs

Artane2002 __________ 11.8 _ 20.6 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 090 __ 1030 mbs

Appledrop ____________11.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.2 _ 111 _ 092 __ 1033 mbs

Gonzo ______________ 11.6 _ 20.1 _ -1.6 _ 128 _ 087 __ 1026 mbs

Sunflower3 __________ 11.4 _ 20.8 _ -3.3 _ 104 _ 098 __ 1025 mbs

WolfeEire ____________ 11.4 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 103 _ 093 __ 1027 mbs

Pauldry______________ 11.2 _ 20.9 _ -2.5 _ 135 _ 089 __ 1028 mbs

M.T. Cranium _________ 11.2 _ 20.7 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 089 __ 1029 mbs

john mac ____________ 11.1 _ 22.7 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 098 __ 1033 mbs

waterways ___________ 11.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.8 _ 134 _ 093 __ 1037 mbs

Dacogawa ___________ 11.1 _ 21.2 _ -2.1 _ 140 _ 086 __ 1034 mbs

__ Con Sensus _______ 11.1 _ 20.7 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 __ 1030 mbs

Mr stonewall _________ 11.1 _ 19.6 _ -1.4 _ 110 _ 096 __ 1030 mb

Mr Skinner ___________11.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 __ 1030 mb

bsal ________________ 10.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 110 _ 105 __ 1027 mbs

Tae laidir ____________ 10.9 _ 18.8 _ -0.8 _ 140 _ 087 __ 1027 mbs

Jpmarn _____________ 10.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 110 __ 1035 mbs

Kindred Spirit ________ 10.8 _ 19.9 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 __ 1030 mbs

DOCARCH ___________ 10.7 _ 22.2 _ -3.1 _ 112 _ 097 __ 1038 mbs

Dasa29 _____________ 10.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 110 __ 1030 mbs

__ NormaL __________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 1028 mbs

========================

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scores for October 2025

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__max slp___ TOTAL

__ Confirmed values __ 11.2 _19.7 _1.0 _116 _065 _1037 mbs

Mr stonewall _________ 24 _ 19 _ 18^_ 13 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 87

Mr Skinner ___________23 _ 17 _ 14^_ 14 _ 06 __ 06 _____ 80

Gonzo ______________ 21 _ 16 _ 16^_ 11 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 76

__ Con Sensus _______ 24 _ 10 _ 11^_ 15 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 73

Tae laidir ____________ 22 _ 11 _ 19 __07 _ 09 __ 03 _____ 71

Kindred Spirit ________ 21 _ 18 _ 05^_ 13 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 70

M.T. Cranium _________25 _ 10 _ 10^_ 12 _ 08 __ 04 _____ 69

Dacogawa ___________ 24 _ 05 _ 13^_ 07 _ 09 __ 09 _____ 67

bsal ________________ 22 _ 13 _ 11^_ 13 _ 05 __ 03 _____ 67

Artane2002 __________19 _ 11 _ 15^_ 06 _ 08 __ 06 _____ 65

Pauldry______________25 _ 08 _ 10^_ 09 _ 08 __ 04 _____ 64

WolfeEire ____________23 _ 16 _ 03^_ 11 _ 07 __ 03 _____ 63

Appledrop ___________ 21 _ 07 _ 05^_ 13 _ 08 __ 08 _____ 62

waterways ___________24 _ 03 _ 08^_ 09 _ 07 __ 10 _____ 61

john mac ____________24 _ 00 _ 08^_ 13 _ 06 __ 08 _____ 59

Jpmarn _____________ 21 _ 08 _ 05^_ 12 _ 04 __ 09 _____ 59

DOCARCH ___________ 20 _ 00 _ 06^_ 14 _ 07 __ 10 _____ 57

Dasa29 _____________ 18 _ 02 _ 14^_ 13 _ 04 __ 06 _____ 57

Joe Public ___________ 14 _ 09 _ 12^_ 10 _ 04 __ 07 _____ 56

Cornerstonelad _______ 17 _ 00 _ 17^_ 11 _ 02 __ 07 _____ 54

Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 09 _ 02^_ 11 _ 06 __ 02 _____ 53

__ NormaL __________ 14 _ 12 _ 06^_ 10 _ 06 __ 03 _____ 51

Notes: Min scored by minimum progression, SUN was scored from 80% rather than the actual 65% … I had been carrying 19.6 C as MAX but summary says 19.7 C, all scores changed by 01 up or down as a result of that. Otherwise scores are same as before and are now placed in rank order.

I cannot recall a month previously where all forecasts scored above 50 and in general were in such a narrow range, well done to Mr stonewall, MrSkinner and Gonzo who led the way
========================

Annual scoring update _ January to October 2025

Best 8/10 is used to order the table, with the two low scores eliminated for the rest of the contest year (as prime table determinant). Totals will still be ranked at start of each row, but now it's the final columns used to order the table.

Rank (prev)_Total_FORECASTER _J _F _M _A _ M _J _J _A _ S _O _ 8/10 (rank, prev)

_03_04_ 667 _Mr Stonewall __ 80_47_64_66_58_43_78_65_79_87__ 577 _1 (3t)

_02_t01_668_Artane2002 ____65_50_66_67_68_75_86_83_43_65__ 575 _2 (1)

_05_05_ 655 _Gonzo _______ 78_38_68_70_62_61_76_52_74_76__ 565 _3 (5)

_0.8_ 2.2_ 672 _Con Sensus___87_53_67_64_64_56_76_68_64_73__563 3.5 (3.0)

_01_t01_ 670_ Dacogawa ____ 88_60_79_70_62_65_65_65_49_67 __561 _4 (2)

_04_03_ 665 _ MrSkinner ____ 81_66_58_56_51_60_90_64_59_80 __558 _5 (6)

_08_06_ 626 _ Jpmarn ______ 68_52_77_65_71_41_85_72_46_59 __549 _6 (3t)

_06_07_ 634 _ waterways ____62_50_59_65_70_55_68_82_62_61 __529 _7 (7)

_07_08_ 633 _ Appledrop ____ 71_61_63_62_57_49_69_63_76_62 __527 _8 (8)

_13_12_ 600 _Cornerstonelad _48_50_64_77_58_80_80_55_34_54 __518_10 (9)

_11_10_ 606 _ DOCARCH ____ 77_61_78_48_75_41_57_55_58_57 __517_ 9 (10)

_10_11_ 617 _ Kindred Spirit __83_55_56_63_47_71_57_62_53_69 __517 11 (13)

_09_09_ 621 _ WolfeEire _____72_53_69_53_67_54_69_69_52_63 __516 12 (11)

t14 _15_ 591 _ Tae laidir _____ 62_49_44_55_57_75_64_74_40_71 __507 13 (t16)

_12_13_ 603 _ john mac _____ 57_62_56_70_48_52_78_68_53_59 __503 t14 (14)

t14 _14_ 593 _ Sunflower3 ___ 73_45_45_61_56_60_65_65_70_53 __503 t14 (12)

_17_17_ 565 _ Joe Public ____ 31_49_42_75_63_44_78_77_50_56 __492 16 (t16)

_18_20_ 536 _ Bsal (9/10)____65_58_48_58_—_61_53_60_66_67 __488 17 (18)

_16_16_ 579 _ M.T. Cranium __48_46_70_57_50_52_66_55_66_69 __485 18 (19)

_20_t18_ 472 _Adam240610(8) _34_61_65_66_53_51_80_62_—_— __472 19 (15)

_19_t18_ 529 _ Dasa29 ______ 69_54_43_49_47_54_67_53_36_57 __450 20 (20)

19.2_19.3_522___ NormaL ___ 72_48_64_57_40_42_51_45_52_51__ 440 20.5(20.3)

_21_21_ 463 _ Pauldry (9/10)__58_63_61_55_32_41_55_34_—_64 __431 21 (22)

=======================[]====================

no longer eligible for best 10/12

_22_22_ 380 _ Esposito (7/10) _46_64_—_63_52_49_49_—_57_— __380 - - (21)

_23_23 _252 _sryanbruen (4/10)_80_38_72_62_—_—_—_—_—_— __252

_24_24 _246 _200motels (5/10) _53_—_ 62_—_30_56_45_—_—_— _246

_25_25 __57 _ Icicle2025 (1/10) _57_—_—_ —_ —_—_ —_— _— _— _ 57

_26_26 __32 _ JCXBXC (1/10) ___32_—_—_ —_ —_—_ —_— _— _— _ 32

__________________________[]_____________________

__________________________[]_____________________

Category Scoring for January to October 2025

FORECASTER ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS _ TOTAL

Max possible ____250_200_ 200 _ 150 _100 _100 ____1000

___Con Sensus __200 _117 _123 _ 92 _ 73 _ 67 _____ 672 

Dacogawa ______ 198 _110 _ 123 _ 87 _ 75 _ 77 _____ 670

Artane2002 _____200 _131 _143 _85 _ 65 _ 48_ 672-4=668

Mr Stonewall ____ 200 _146 _120 _88 _ 59 _ 56_ 669-2=667

MrSkinner ______ 197 _130 _111 _104 _70 _ 53 _____ 665

Gonzo _________ 196 _130 _120_ 82 _ 77 _ 53_ 658-3=655

Jpmarn ________ 180 _129 _ 89 _ 89 _ 76 _ 73 _____ 636

waterways ______196 _106 _103 _ 85 _ 67 _ 77 _____ 634

Appledrop ______ 192 _128 _105_ 81 _ 65 _ 62 _____ 633

WolfeEire _______183 _130 _119_ 68 _ 66 _ 56_ 622-2=620

Kindred Spirit ___ 198 _101 _ 93 _ 94 _ 64 _ 67 _____ 617

DOCARCH ______ 177 _ 87 _113_ 80 _ 75 _ 74 _____ 606

john mac _______187 _ 94 _107 _ 89 _ 64 _ 62 _____ 603

Cornerstonelad __ 183 _ 98 _113 _ 65 _ 74 _ 67 _____ 600

Sunflower3 _____191 _108 _ 95 _ 99 _ 63 _ 37 _____ 593

Tae laidir ______ 192 _ 97 _102 _ 76 _ 75 _ 49 _____ 591

M.T. Cranium ___ 177 _ 94 _ 90 _ 88 _ 76 _ 54 _____ 579

Bsal (9/10)_____170 _ 64 _130 _ 84 _ 58 _ 30 _____ 536

Joe Public______ 152 _125 _ 85 _ 91 _ 70 _ 46_ 569-4=565

Dasa29 ________183 _ 61 _100 _ 68 _ 61 _ 56 _____ 529

___Normal _____128 _ 82 _110 _ 88 _ 63 _ 51 _____ 522 

Adam240610 (8)_146 _ 73 _ 90 _ 56 _ 66 _ 49 _480-8=472

Pauldry (9/10) __167 _ 45 _ 72 _ 51 _ 65 _ 65 _465-2=463

Esposito (7/10) _132 _ 61 _ 56 _ 45 _ 46 _ 41 _381-1=380

sryanbruen (4) __77 _ 51 _ 47 _ 26 _ 25 _ 26 _____ 252

200motels (5) __ 84 _ 29 _ 19 _ 38 _ 37 _ 41 _248-2=246

Icicle2025 (1) __ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 _ 08 ______57

JCXBXC (1) ____ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 _ 03 ___40-8=32

Top scores in categories are bold type, seconds are bold italics, third are regular italic.

Any designations for Con Sensus or NormaL are independent of forecaster score designations.

IMT has two tied for first as well as Con Sensus also tied (200 points) and two tied for third at 198.

MAX has first, second and three tied for third.

MIN has first, second and third place designations. (Bsal is second for MIN despite 9/10 entries)

PRC has first, second and third place designations.

SUN has first and two tied for second, no third designated. Three are one point back tied fourth.

BONUS has a two tied for first, and one designated third, a fourth score is one back of that.

_________________

If you add the six highest category scores it comes to 747, a 77 point increase on total score leader Dacogawa (three points ahead of new 8/10 contest leader Mr Stonewall (raw scores are 76 higher than his, and the differential then increases by two as Mr Stonewall's annual total includes one 2 point late penalty). Mr Stonewall holds a share of top score for IMT and is also top score for MAX. Artane2002 is second in total score also holds a share of the IMT lead and is first in the MIN scoring as well as second in MAX. Dacogawa has a second and third among his top total score.

Note Bsal has missed one contest and is now in second place for MIN, so the average score is higher than first place.

=======================

note: in the September category scoring, I failed to add Cornerstonelad's 34 points to the 512 total, it should have read … Cornerstonelad __ 166 _ 98 _ 96 _ 54 _ 72 _ 60 _____ 546 … and it should have then been placed lower in the table between Kindred Spirit and johnmac. Having found that error, I checked other scores and could not find anything else similar. Cornerstonelad's other scoring totals in the contest table were updated correctly last month.

========================

Well, the contests are very close (both total points and best 8/10) as Mr Stonewall has joined the lead pack with October's high score of 87. Congrats to all who are within a few points of the lead in each category, Dacogawa took back the total score lead but it is very close among top four there. (Mr Skinner also in the picture as usual) …

… on to November then.