October 2025 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average mean temp for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon) for October 2025. The 1981-2010 average is 10.1.
2. Predict the MAX temp at any of the 25 official locations listed daily on the met-ie website.
3. Predict the MIN (details same as above)
4. Predict the PRC (percentage of normal rainfall at eleven locations including the five in part one above and also Malin, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown, Cork and Valentia.)
5. Predict the SUN (percentage of normal at six locations around Ireland).
6. BONUS _ Predict the maximum sea level pressure to be recorded at any of the regular reporting sites on the met-ie website (millibars) during Oct 2025 (no loc'n, dates required).

M.T. Cranium _________11.2 _ 20.7 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 089 __ 1029 mbs

NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 1028 mbs

The deadline as always is 0300h on 1st of month with late penalties of one point per four hours or portion, increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd.

IMPORTANT: Make a note, if Boards.ie becomes inaccessible during the following month or thereafter, the 2025 weather contest will continue at an alternate site. You can always get updates directly from me at the facebook page (Irish Weather Online) where I also post forecasts. The forecast contest would not continue there but at the already existing alternate site discussed in the thread about contingency plans. I would appreciate it if you would thank this post if you read this and understand where to look for updates if necessary, let's hope it won't be needed; if you thank the post I won't need to send you a p.m. I plan to send anyone who might have missed this info.

I don't view the alternate site as a permanent home for any migrating weather forum either, but for a month or two it would be fine. I believe eventually the weather forum and perhaps one or two other similar groups would continue on, although I really hope it won't be needed. — MTC (I am Peter O'Donnell on the other internet sites mentioned).

You could also get my e-mail address from my profile as an emergency contact. I am not sure if I would want to continue on with the contest past December if we migrate, but I would try to finish out this year at least.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058425687/october-2025-boards-weather-forecast-contest

Hi MT,

Do you mean maximum mb in number 6? You put in 1028mb

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____________ 11.8 _ 20.6 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 090 __ 1030 mbs

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123860867#Comment_123860867

Yes I did, thanks … have edited that now. Artane did okay with it. I was thinking minimum looking at the various model forecasts for Humberto on Friday, then changed my mind. I was afraid of a widespread revolt if I went with maximum wind speed again. But I may run a separate contest on that or at least encourage people to speculate, once the model consensus comes together, still not a certainty there will be much of an event but GFS has stuck with its intense solution at 12z I notice. Well I asked people to thank the post, but today I cannot see who thanked the post, usually I can see the names to a certain number then if it gets past ten like the daily forecast I can't see them and if I click on it, just says "you cannot thank your own post" which I already knew. I will miss boards but I won't miss vanilla or whatever this awful (quirky) template is called. They shoulda gone with what Net-weather and American Weather Forum use, much easier to use in general I find. I hear this site's template is Canadian so no wonder eh?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123861905#Comment_123861905

Thanks MT.

WolfeEire _________11.4 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 103 _ 093 __ 1027 mbs

Bsal

Bsal _____________ 10.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 110 _ 105 __ 1027 mbs

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____________ 11.4 _ 20.8 _ -3.3 _ 104 _ 98 __ 1025 mbs

waterways

waterways __________ 11.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.8 _ 134 _ 093 __ 1037 mbs

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____________ 10.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 110 __ 1035 mbs

dasa29

Dasa29 ____________ 10.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.0_ 120 _ 110 __ 1030 mbs

Gonzo

Gonzo _____________ 11.6 _ 20.1 _ -1.6 _ 128 _ 087 __ 1026 mbs

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 10.8 ___ 19.9 ___ -3.2 ___ 110 ___ 95 ___1030.

Cornerstonelad

Cornerstonelad__12.0____23.0__-1.5___128___120___1031

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____________ 10.7 _ 22.2 _ -3.1 _ 112 _ 097 __ 1038 mbs

John mac

john mac _____________ 11.1 _ 22.7 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 98 __ 1033 mbs

appledrop

Appledrop__11.6___21.0___-3.2___111____92___

1033mbs

Ah M.T haven't a clue about that pressure one!

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____________ 10.9 _ 18.8 _ -0.8 _ 140 _ 87 __ 1027 mbs

pauldry

Pauldry_____________ 11.2_ 20.9 _ -2.5 _ 135 _ 89 __ 1028 mbs

dacogawa

Dacogawa ________ 11.1 _ 21.2 _ -2.1 _ 140 _ 086 __ 1034 mbs

Joe Public

Joe Public_________12.3 _ 18.6 _ -2.2 _ 102 _ 108 __ 1032 mbs

mrskinner

Skinner___11___20___-2___120___100___1030.

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___11.1___19.6____-1.4___110___96__1030mb

DOCARCH

To kick things off, high of 19.7c at Shannon AP yesterday (01st).

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for October 2025

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max slp

Joe Public ___________ 12.3 _ 18.6 _ -2.2 _ 102 _ 108 __ 1032 mbs

Cornerstonelad _______ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.5 _ 128 _ 120 __ 1031 mbs

Artane2002 __________ 11.8 _ 20.6 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 090 __ 1030 mbs

Appledrop ____________11.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.2 _ 111 _ 092 __ 1033 mbs

Gonzo ______________ 11.6 _ 20.1 _ -1.6 _ 128 _ 087 __ 1026 mbs

Sunflower3 __________ 11.4 _ 20.8 _ -3.3 _ 104 _ 098 __ 1025 mbs

WolfeEire ____________ 11.4 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 103 _ 093 __ 1027 mbs

Pauldry______________ 11.2 _ 20.9 _ -2.5 _ 135 _ 089 __ 1028 mbs

M.T. Cranium _________ 11.2 _ 20.7 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 089 __ 1029 mbs

john mac ____________ 11.1 _ 22.7 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 098 __ 1033 mbs

waterways ___________ 11.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.8 _ 134 _ 093 __ 1037 mbs

Dacogawa ___________ 11.1 _ 21.2 _ -2.1 _ 140 _ 086 __ 1034 mbs

__ Con Sensus ________ 11.1 _ 20.7 _ -2.3 _ 116 _ 096 __ 1030 mbs

Mr stonewall _________ 11.1 _ 19.6 _ -1.4 _ 110 _ 096 __ 1030 mb

Mr Skinner ___________ 11.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 100 __ 1030 mb

bsal ________________ 10.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 110 _ 105 __ 1027 mbs

Tae laidir ____________ 10.9 _ 18.8 _ -0.8 _ 140 _ 087 __ 1027 mbs

Jpmarn _____________ 10.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 110 __ 1035 mbs

Kindred Spirit ________ 10.8 _ 19.9 _ -3.2 _ 110 _ 095 __ 1030 mbs

DOCARCH ___________ 10.7 _ 22.2 _ -3.1 _ 112 _ 097 __ 1038 mbs

Dasa29 _____________ 10.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.0 _ 120 _ 110 __ 1030 mbs

__ NormaL ___________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 1028 mbs

========================

Group consensus calling for a mild to warm October with a sharp frost later, rather wet perhaps, sunshine may fall a bit below average although seven forecasts are above slightly.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123869153#Comment_123869153

19.7c matched at Dublin Airport yesterday (6th)

M.T. Cranium

After the first week …

IMT _ 13.6 (2.2 above normal)

MAX _ 19.6

MIN _ nothing noted yet

PRC _ 221% of normal

SUN _ 55% of normal

max sea level pressure looking like 1030s this weekend.

_______________-

Pressure forecasts in order …

1038 _ DOCARCH

1037 _ waterways

1036

1035 _ JPmarn

1034 _ dacogawa

1033 _ Appledrop, john mac

1032 _ Joe Public

1031 _ Cornerstonelad

1030 _ Artane2002, Mr Skinner, Mr Stonewall, kindred spirit, dasa29, Con Sensus

1029 _ M.T. Cranium

1028 _ Pauldry, NormaL

1027 _ WolfeEire, bsal, tae laidir

1026 _ Gonzo

1025 _ Sunflower3

Tae laidir

I'm seeing pressure of 1036 from many stations in the south this morning.

Tae laidir

1037 for Cork an Roches Point in latest weather.

M.T. Cranium

Oak Park also had 1037 mbs later on, so the bonus can now be scored as any higher pressures (unlikely) won't change the situation for scoring … there were quite a few at 1030 mbs so there's a jump in the points after that interval …

1038 _ DOCARCH ___ 10

1037 _ waterways ___ 10

1036

1035 _ JPmarn _______ 9

1034 _ dacogawa _____ 9

1033 _ Appledrop, john mac ___ 8

1032 _ Joe Public ______ 7

1031 _ Cornerstonelad __ 7

1030 _ Artane2002, Mr Skinner, Mr Stonewall, kindred spirit, dasa29, Con Sensus ___ 6

1029 _ M.T. Cranium ___ 4

1028 _ Pauldry, NormaL _ 4

1027 _ WolfeEire, bsal, tae laidir __ 3

1026 _ Gonzo ______ 2

1025 _ Sunflower3 __ 2

Well done waterways and DOCARCH, you handled the pressure very well.

It has certainly been a gloomy anticyclone so far.

Joe Public

"Well done waterways and DOCARCH, you handled the pressure very well" 🤣

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123903534#Comment_123903534

I am terrible under pressure