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Charts ( up to T120) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Forgot to add the pictures sorry my bad
Even on the met Office week ahead forcast alex deakin did say they will monitor the area of low pressure , I hope met eirrean is as well , edit Alex deakin not alleged lol
Post edited by Dazler97 on2 -
Models in general leaning away from the strongest winds shown in earlier runs for Thurs, windy for sure but probably mainly in the Yellow warning level, will need to see charts tomorrow to see if some coastal county might be close to Orange weather warning level but for the moment IMO just seeing Western coastal fringes perhaps close to Orange level.
Models differing a bit with rainfall totals, ECM has pulled back substantially on amounts but in general models still showing quite heavy along Southern counties and perhaps parts of the West.
ARPEGE at the moment perhaps a good average for wind gusts. GFS higher along the W and UKMO higher in general but too far out there from the main bunch.
Fri still some uncertainty as the atmosphere is quite mobile but currently not showing anything too windy or wet but a feature could pop up yet.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
By later this weekend, Melissa is expected to downgrade to an ex-tropical storm as it tracks north-east across the Atlantic.
Early next week the much weakened system is likely to be situated between Ireland and Iceland. At this stage there is no indication that it will interact with the jet stream or pose a storm threat to Ireland.
Ireland’s weather is expected to remain unsettled through much of next week, with a west to south-west Atlantic airflow dominating conditions. Showers or rain are likely on most days, accompanied occasionally by fresh to strong winds. The chance of a named storm is low at present.
The red line in the GEFS graphic below shows the ensemble mean forecast, which represents the average of all ensemble members. It indicates the central trend and the most likely outcome amid uncertainty. It currently shows rainfall in Ireland on most days up to mid-November, with a trend towards slowly rising air pressure suggesting potentially calmer and more settled conditions after mid-month.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
An EUMETSAT RGB satellite image of the Atlantic system that will bring wind and rain to Ireland tomorrow. Impressive looking. It will remain well offshore
The heaviest rainfall is expected in Connemara and south Munster, where 30 to 40 millimetres of rain could fall between Tuesday morning and Friday morning. Higher totals are possible over mountains in west Cork and south Kerry, increasing the risk of localised flooding and difficult travel conditions.
The strongest winds are likely in exposed coastal areas, with gusts of 90 to 100 kilometres per hour expected at Sherkin Island and Roches Point in Cork, Valentia in Kerry, Mace Head in Galway and Belmullet in Mayo.
www.weatheire.com
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A lot of rain forecast over the coming days. Here in Tralee in the last 3 days I have recorded 45mm , and looks like another 30 mm or so up to Mon evening. Every day looks to rain at some stage and heavy at times . Ground saturated now in parts and no let up the week after either.
Accumulation up to +120hrs - Thurs 6th.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Today’s mild weather is particularly notable for anyone out and about as thermometers climb toward 16 °C in many parts of Ireland. Dublin Airport recorded the highest temperature so far today at 16.2 °C at 2 pm, while Gurteen in County Tipperary registered 16.0 °C.
The warmth is being driven by a southwesterly breeze bringing temperate maritime air from the Atlantic. Under this airflow, even in November, coastal and inland areas can feel remarkably mild for the time of year. High pressure to the east and low pressure to the northwest is helping to steer the mild air over Ireland. This pattern is expected to persist through the working week.Above-average temperatures at the start of November are not unusual. The highest air temperature last November was 19.2 °C, recorded at Phoenix Park in Dublin on November 6, marking the highest daily maximum for November since 1961. The highest air temperature for November on record was 20.1 °C, reported at Dooks in County Kerry on November 1, 2015.
Long-range weather models suggest a slight cooling as we move into the weekend and next week, with the potential for more considerable drops in temperature and below-average conditions after mid-month.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
The bottom row relates to precipitation totals. After today and Friday's rain, you can see a trend toward much drier conditions for Ireland up to mid-week next week. It will also turn colder as the top row illustrates.
www.weatheire.com
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ICON 06z run is very wet looking for the SE for Friday into Saturday. This is upper-end orange warning for Wicklow and Wexford. UKMO is showing a similar outlook but their 06z run only goes to +60 hours so need to wait until later to see the 12z. It's worth noting that the GFS and ECM are nowhere near as bad as this, 40-50mm range at the higher end for them.
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