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Charts ( up to T120) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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Gfs, icon and Arpege out with 12z and still a varied solutions with the low.
Icon and Arpege don’t weaken the low fully until it reaches the North Sea, winds still packing a punch over Ireland but not the worst for us
Gfs a totally different story and is very similar to Ecmwf 0z last night bringing severe gusts over the whole of the country with Connacht and Ulster getting a bad doing
Hopefully by tomorrow morning we will have some more coherence for the track of the low between the models so Met E can issue warnings as I think it is now more likely that somewhere will get a battering
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Why Is Ireland So Cloudy Despite High Pressure?
Despite a dominant high-pressure system building over Ireland, the past few days have been overcast and dull across much of the country. This might seem surprising, as high pressure is typically associated with clear skies and settled weather. However, the current setup has produced quite the opposite.
Today, mean sea level pressure over Ireland reached 1036 hPa in the southern half of the island, one of the highest readings recorded in 2025.
While such a strong high often brings sunshine, its position is key. This particular high is centred over the south of Ireland, which has resulted in a largely westerly airflow across much of the island. Westerly winds tend to bring in moist Atlantic air, and under the stable conditions of high pressure, this moisture becomes trapped near the surface. With little vertical movement in the atmosphere and weak autumnal sunshine, low cloud, mist, and fog have persisted. The impact has been felt across the island.
Malin Head in County Donegal recorded just 5.9 hours of sunshine over the past week, only 27 percent of the average. Meanwhile, Johnstown Castle in County Wexford fared better with 21.4 hours, or 87 percent of the average, thanks to its location in the brighter southeast. These figures highlight the regional differences caused by the airflow and positioning of the high.Looking ahead, the high pressure is expected to drift and become centred over the northeast or north midlands of Ireland. As it does so, winds will fall light easterly or even calm at times, particularly overnight. These conditions are ideal for the formation of mist and fog patches, especially in inland areas and sheltered valleys. The lack of wind and weak sunshine will make it difficult for these fog patches to clear quickly in the mornings.
Depending on the exact orientation of the high, locations to the northwest of its centre may experience occasional patches of drizzle or even light rain at times next week. However, any rainfall will be minimal, with accumulation totals expected to be slight.On the plus side, dry weather has brought a marked improvement in ground conditions across Ireland. According to Met Éireann, while poorly drained soils remain saturated, lighter soils are now trafficable. With settled conditions expected to persist, field access is likely to improve steadily across all soil types, including some of the more waterlogged areas. By next week, soil moisture deficits are forecast to range from 5 to 11mm in moderately and well-drained soils, and from -1 to 8mm in poorly drained soils.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Rain to return next weekend
Ireland will remain mostly dry through the coming working week, with rain expected to return on Saturday. This marks the end of a 12-day stretch of dry but predominantly overcast conditions.
A low-pressure system currently positioned between Nova Scotia and Greenland is forecast to drift eastward across the Atlantic. Its remnants are expected to reach Ireland by Friday night, bringing rain first to the west coast before spreading east through Saturday.
Early indications suggest southern counties may see the highest rainfall totals, with some long-range models projecting up to 15-20mm. However, the exact location and intensity of the heaviest rain will remain uncertain until mid-week.
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), which runs 21 simulations to account for uncertainty in atmospheric conditions, shows strong agreement for a return of rain on Saturday. The ensemble average, represented by a red line on forecast charts, points to a clear shift from dry to unsettled conditions.
Rainfall over the past week has been below average across the country. Malin Head recorded the highest total at 5.1mm, while Johnstown Castle in Co. Wexford saw just 0.3mm.
This dry spell follows an exceptionally wet start to October. In the first three days of the month, half of Met Éireann’s 24 synoptic stations recorded more than half their average monthly rainfall. Mace Head in Galway logged 74.2mm in 72 hours, representing 70 percent of its October norm. Athenry recorded 66mm, passing the halfway mark of its monthly average of 118mm.
📷GFS Rainfall and Temperature ensembles. Credit Meteocielwww.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Aside from the rain on Saturday into Sunday morning, it will also be quite windy at times
Rainfall totals from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning will range from 10-15mm generally, with higher totals along the south coast and on hills and mountains.
www.weatheire.com
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Been watching this for a couple of days and the track seems locked in now or thereabouts. Nothing we would worry about here wind-wise, gusts up to 110km/h at worst - but factor in that it's southeast England not Ireland, from an unusual NNWly direction, and presumably UKMO will be a little concerned. Netherleands and Belgium similar. Wouldn't like to be on a Channel or North Sea ferry on Thursday.
Interesting setup with another not much weaker low skirting our North coast on Friday then giving us moderate Northerlies for a couple of days into the weekend. Going to feel much colder here.
Edit: just looked at the UKMO charts which are significantly stronger than any of the others, particularly for Netherlands with up to 150km/h gusts onshore which would be extremely unusual for them.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Parts of the west will be hit by strong winds and heavy rain over the next 48 hours as a dual low-pressure system affects Ireland and Britain. Gusts could reach up to 85 km/h later on Thursday into Friday as the main low drifts south over western counties. Rainfall will vary widely, with 20 to 30mm expected in parts of the west while much of Leinster and eastern Ulster could see less than 5mm.
Spot flooding is possible in Atlantic coastal areas, particularly west Munster, while eastern counties may remain largely dry.
Meanwhile, a secondary low-pressure system will intensify over the English Channel, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to southeast England and northwest France. The system, named Storm Benjamin by Météo France, has led the UK Met Office to issue a series of weather warnings.www.weatheire.com
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Gfs and Icon showing the possibility of storm Bram for Thursday night into Friday morning (Halloween). The system will deepen as it moves up from the south on Thursday. Wind speeds not looking too bad at present.
Halloween night is likely to be showery especially in the West and Northwest
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Models still differing quite a bit but showing windy spells or touching storm force on coasts for a time in places towards the end of the week but confidence low at present but all showing quite unsettled at times. Latest ECM missing the strong winds Thurs but going more for Fri into Sat. UKMO showing some strong winds Thurs and Fri, ACCESS-G a bit later again Fri into Sat but also showing a bit of a disturbance on Thurs, GEM later Fri into Sat.
Precipitation amounts differing quite a bit also depending on track and timing, latest ECM showing some very wet weather across parts of of the country leaning towards the East of the country Thurs into early Fri . Early days with such a complex set up but has the look of some places getting high totals.
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Models showing weather getting very disturbed at the end of the week on the latest runs. Have left it run slightly past the +120hrs to show the evolution of possibly some rough weather Fri into Sat, possible storm.
ECM now also showing windy weather on Thurs.
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Big uncertainty with what is going on Fri /Sat. Was showing some very strong weather conditions but models now showing a rapid deepening over the UK or North of the UK so huge uncertainty if we get anything, ICON showing some small strong features moving rapidly across Ireland but a big ?
Models are now more aligned with Thurs into Fri morning being a wet if not very wet and windy day in parts. Models showing gusting winds between 80 and 90 or 100km/h, strongest nearer the coasts but still a bit of a spread on where and how high winds will be and duration for that matter, all depends on how close a track to Ireland and the systems momentum.
GFS closer more defined system, ECM a bit more flabby and further to the W as is ICON, ACCESS-G more defined and closer.
May be very wet and windy but might not get into storm criteria . UKMO is very strong looking ( stormy ) but too much of a spread in the models at this stage so better somewhere in the middle ground.
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1661
Weather models all show a low-pressure system tracking north along Ireland’s west coast later Thursday into Friday. Strong winds are possible, with a risk of gales in exposed locations. At present and as @Meteorite58 correctly points out, projected wind speeds do not meet the threshold for a named storm as defined by the UK Met Office, Met Éireann, or the KNMI.Winds will initially be southeast to southerly, strengthening to moderate gale force in coastal areas, with gusts potentially reaching 100 km/h or higher in exposed south and west locations. Winds will veer south-westerly on Friday and ease gradually by the end of the day.
Contrary to some reports, the system is not the remnants of Hurricane Melissa, currently a Category 5 hurricane near Jamaica. Instead, it is a depression powered by the meeting of cold polar air and warmer subtropical air, steered toward Ireland by the polar jet stream and energised by warm ocean currents. Strong westerly winds will carry it toward the northwest of the country.
The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through the first ten days of November, with further rain and showers and occasional strong winds.
www.weatheire.com
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